Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[payitforward]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

These are all pretty reasonable points. At the same time, there are reasonable opposing points. E.g. I agree that stretching Mahinmi would be a mistake, yet I think it'll be a lot harder to get rid of him than the (definitely clever) scheme you mention.

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

[DCZards]

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

Wouldn't simply having a healthy Wall available for, say, 75-80 games, instead of the 41 he played last season make the Zards a better team than they were last season? Then you add to that what should be improved center play with Howard.

I agree that Toronto, Boston and Philly are better than the Zards. (Although, I think we're close to being as good as Philly.) But I'm not sold on the idea that Indy is better. Yes, Indy won 5 more games than the Zards last season, but, again, that was with WallStar playing just 41 games.

[dckingsfan]

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

Wouldn't simply having a healthy Wall available for, say, 75-80 games, instead of the 41 he played last season make the Zards a better team than they were last season? Then you add to that what should be improved center play with Howard.

I agree that Toronto, Boston and Philly are better than the Zards. (Although, I think we're close to being as good as Philly.) But I'm not sold on the idea that Indy is better. Yes, Indy won 5 more games than the Zards last season, but, again, that was with WallStar playing just 41 games.

Question: What was the Wizards record when wall played?
Question: Why do you think that Howard will be a measurable upgrade over Gortat given how his recent teams have performed?
Question: What do you think will be the x-factor in an improved Wizards record?

[NatP4]

Dwight is better than Gortat

Jeff green is better than Mike Scott


Satoransky will play a full season, instead of sitting for the first 20 .

Wall will play more than 41 games.

Austin Rivers is better than the Meeks we got last year.

Troy Brown is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

Thomas Bryant is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

The team is without a doubt, better than last year.

Still coached by a moron who can offset any positive offseason moves

[DCZards]

Wouldn't simply having a healthy Wall available for, say, 75-80 games, instead of the 41 he played last season make the Zards a better team than they were last season? Then you add to that what should be improved center play with Howard.

I agree that Toronto, Boston and Philly are better than the Zards. (Although, I think we're close to being as good as Philly.) But I'm not sold on the idea that Indy is better. Yes, Indy won 5 more games than the Zards last season, but, again, that was with WallStar playing just 41 games.

Question: What was the Wizards record when wall played?
Question: Why do you think that Howard will be a measurable upgrade over Gortat given how his recent teams have performed?
Question: What do you think will be the x-factor in an improved Wizards record?

I see the 2017-18 season as an anomaly as it relates to Wall. He only played 41 games and was almost certainly playing hurt in many of those games. The season before was Wall’s best year so, hopefully, his play will be close to that level in 2018-19. Last year's record with Wall is insignificant, imo.

Shotblocking and rebounding is where I expect major improvement in center play. Howard has always been better at both than Gortat. Gortat for his career has averaged 1.1 blocks and 8.1 rebounds. Howard for his career has averaged 12.7 rebounds and 2.0 blks. Last season, Gortat averaged 7.6 rebs and 0.7 blks in 25 mins. Howard averaged 12.5 rebs and 1.6 blks in 30 mins.

Howard has also consistently averaged more points than Marcin. But it’s the improved rim protection and rebounding where I expect Dwight to have the biggest impact.

If I had to pick an X factor (or three) it would be a healthy and more aggressive Porter--with more shot attempt--the continued development of Oubre, and an improved bench with Sato, Rivers and Green. All of this, of course, is assuming a healthy Wall and Beal.

[pcbothwel]

These are all pretty reasonable points. At the same time, there are reasonable opposing points. E.g. I agree that stretching Mahinmi would be a mistake, yet I think it'll be a lot harder to get rid of him than the (definitely clever) scheme you mention.

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

You are overstating my optimism.
Kieff: He doesnt need to take an major steps. You take the player he has been more or less over the last 3-4 years, with last year being the most relevant. Its really about him shooting the 3 with more efficiency and frequency. That alone unclogs the lane and makes him more efficient as a scorer. Last year his lateral quickness was clearly hurt by his ankle. It showed up on D and in his ability to draw fouls. I simply think if you take the healthy Kieff from 16/17 with the shot selection of 17/18, you get a solid piece.

Sixers: Again, I see two major issues with them.
1) They are too young. Age & Minutes played of their two stars would be unprecedented for them to be THAT good this early unless they are generationally great... which leads to
2) While their talent is great, Enbiid & Simmons have issues.
- Ben is such a great physical presence with elite vision, that it allowed him to cover up Gaping holes in his offensive game. It think his shot falls in time, but the Celtics gave the blue print on him. I think his sophomore year is a slight regression.
- Embiid almost has the opposite problem. He has no holes, but unlike Ben he is a 5 that you can mitigate touches to. Almost like a great WR in football. You cant stop a QB, pitcher, or primary ball handler from controlling the game. But you can game plan to stop weapons (Wr's, Hitters, Bigs).

They will be VERY good, and in time probably great. But there are big questions about them in the short term.

Other Wiz players: Again, Im not saying all the positives need to happen, just some. But every player is in a better role.
- Rivers isnt starting or counted on to play PG. His perfect role is as a iso creater on the bench next to a strong defender and willing passer (Sato). His role plus his age points to the best version of Rivers yet... not great, but good depth.
- Oubre is in his 4th year and we've seen great strides year over year from him. More Sato and added Rivers takes some creator responsibility out of his hands too.. big weakness as he simply doesn't have the vision/skill/IQ for that.
- Wall is not only healthy, but working his ass off. I think he has one of his better season yet. And I think Beal is simply better from not having to play creator with Wall back.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Agree Rivers is good paired with a good defender and willing passer... you can play him with Sato or with Brown.

But...

Brooks on radio interview sounds like he intend on running a 3 guard rotation as much as possible with Wall Beal, Wall Rivers, Rivers Beal, keeping Wall and/or Beal on the floor at all times.

[dckingsfan]

Agree Rivers is good paired with a good defender and willing passer... you can play him with Sato or with Brown.

But...

Brooks on radio interview sounds like he intend on running a 3 guard rotation as much as possible with Wall Beal, Wall Rivers, Rivers Beal, keeping Wall and/or Beal on the floor at all times.

Which makes Beal a primary ball handler (that didn't work out well last year) and Rivers a primary ball handler (shudder) and Sato... er… Maybe we could trade him now with Mahimni and not have to give up a first next year (cause he ain't gonna play)?

[Ruzious]

Dwight is better than Gortat

Jeff green is better than Mike Scott


Satoransky will play a full season, instead of sitting for the first 20 .

Wall will play more than 41 games.

Austin Rivers is better than the Meeks we got last year.

Troy Brown is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

Thomas Bryant is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

The team is without a doubt, better than last year.

Still coached by a moron who can offset any positive offseason moves

Agreed for the most part - assuming we're healthy this season - and hopefully Otto is healthier this season.

[payitforward]

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

Wouldn't simply having a healthy Wall available for, say, 75-80 games, instead of the 41 he played last season make the Zards a better team than they were last season? Then you add to that what should be improved center play with Howard.

I agree that Toronto, Boston and Philly are better than the Zards. (Although, I think we're close to being as good as Philly.) But I'm not sold on the idea that Indy is better. Yes, Indy won 5 more games than the Zards last season, but, again, that was with WallStar playing just 41 games.

Absolutely! Having Wall back -- & especially if he returns to 2016-17 form -- makes us a better team. If we have improved Center play, that will make us better yet. But, we also added Austin Rivers; he makes us a less good team (how much less depends on how much he plays, & I am afraid he's going to play a lot).

Philly is a better team than we are, Zards. They have a young & very talented core that in the nature of things should be even better this year than last. I haven't really liked their off season much; I thought it was foolish to jettison Holmes & equally foolish to acquire Wilson Chandler (though it cost them literally nothing, & he is expiring -- & they got a R2 pick too. Actually... I guess it wasn't foolish on those terms!), but they haven't hurt themselves & the players they bring back are awfully good.

Indy is a better team than it was last year -- maybe significantly so. The guys they let go either didn't play much or didn't play all that well. They added Tyreke Evans & O'Quinn, & their core guys -- Oladipo, Sabonis, Turner -- are still developing. Sabonis and Turner are younger than Oubre!

I do expect us to be better this year than last year (though Howard is the kind of guy who makes a person nervous!). It would be no surprise if we win 49 games again, which means, obviously, that it's conceivable we do a little better than that. & one or more of those other 4 teams might do worse than expected.

But all the same, that's a long long way from being a threat to take the East.

[payitforward]

Dwight is better than Gortat

Jeff green is better than Mike Scott

Satoransky will play a full season, instead of sitting for the first 20 .

Wall will play more than 41 games.

Austin Rivers is better than the Meeks we got last year.

Troy Brown is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

Thomas Bryant is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

The team is without a doubt, better than last year.

Still coached by a moron who can offset any positive offseason moves

Agreed for the most part - assuming we're healthy this season - and hopefully Otto is healthier this season.

Dwight is definitely better than Gortat. But... he's kind of a problem-child, time-bomb type guy, so you never know.

Green & Scott are about equal. If there's a difference, it's small. There was nothing to choose between them last year. They scored @ the same # of points at virtually the same usage -- though in totally different ways. Scott had a slightly higher TS% & (unbelievably!) way out-rebounded Green. But Green did some other things a bit better. Jeff Green was never good; as he's aged, he's become really awful.

Man do I hope you are right about Satoransky -- to me it sounds like Coach Moron intends a 3-guard rotation of Wall, Beal & Rivers. If Rivers plays 1500 minutes or more, all hope is gone.

If Wall plays a full season -- assuming he plays the way he did 2 years ago -- then, yes, we are "better than last year."

Rivers is not only not "better than the Meeks we got last year," he is quite a lot worse. &, unlike Meeks, he's never been any good. &, unlike Meeks, he has a reputation as a bad teammate.

Brown & Bryant are promising -- it's great that we have acquired 2 promising young players at the same time. I hope they both play well. But... it's hard to imagine them playing enough minutes that they impact our season significantly. Still, no matter how they play, the more they play the more I like it.

All the same, a healthy John Wall playing well would make us a better team than last year -- unless, of course, injury strikes Porter or Beal or Howard.

The good news is that if injury strikes Austin Rivers, we'll be a better team!

[nuposse04]

Dwight is better than Gortat

Jeff green is better than Mike Scott

Satoransky will play a full season, instead of sitting for the first 20 .

Wall will play more than 41 games.

Austin Rivers is better than the Meeks we got last year.

Troy Brown is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

Thomas Bryant is better than whatever 3rd string scrub we had last year.

The team is without a doubt, better than last year.

Still coached by a moron who can offset any positive offseason moves

Agreed for the most part - assuming we're healthy this season - and hopefully Otto is healthier this season.

Dwight is definitely better than Gortat. But... he's kind of a problem-child, time-bomb type guy, so you never know.

Green & Scott are about equal. If there's a difference, it's small. There was nothing to choose between them last year. They scored @ the same # of points at virtually the same usage -- though in totally different ways. Scott had a slightly higher TS% & (unbelievably!) way out-rebounded Green. But Green did some other things a bit better. Jeff Green was never good; as he's aged, he's become really awful.

Man do I hope you are right about Satoransky -- to me it sounds like Coach Moron intends a 3-guard rotation of Wall, Beal & Rivers. If Rivers plays 1500 minutes or more, all hope is gone.

If Wall plays a full season -- assuming he plays the way he did 2 years ago -- then, yes, we are "better than last year."

Rivers is not only not "better than the Meeks we got last year," he is quite a lot worse. &, unlike Meeks, he's never been any good. &, unlike Meeks, he has a reputation as a bad teammate.

Brown & Bryant are promising -- it's great that we have acquired 2 promising young players at the same time. I hope they both play well. But... it's hard to imagine them playing enough minutes that they impact our season significantly. Still, no matter how they play, the more they play the more I like it.

All the same, a healthy John Wall playing well would make us a better team than last year -- unless, of course, injury strikes Porter or Beal or Howard.

The good news is that if injury strikes Austin Rivers, we'll be a better team!

that part is kinda important. The 2nd unit could turn out decent if Rivers simply doesn't play. He's a better defender then meeks but not by THAT much. His offense is pretty bad too. He really should be a 5th guard on a good team. Simply not playing would also mean actually playin brown jr, developing him and having to play tomas. Both good. Also team ball would probably improve as Rivers isn't really conducive to anything other ISOing.

If Leonard plays next season, 4 seed is our ceiling probably.

[prime1time]

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

While I agree with everything you wrote, the challenge with the Wizards is that they have never played up to their ability. On paper we look solid, but for some reason or another it doesn't translate. If we can move the ball offensively and play scrappy defense, we can compete with any team in the East. Beal, Porter and Oubre are better versions of the team that took Boston 7. And that team had no bench. I'm excited to see this team play. I really hope Brooks staggers lineups and gives us more rotations with Beal and Porter initiating the offense. I also think lineups with Rivers being the main ball handler and Oubre working off of him can be effective. Ultimately, I think a lot of pressure is going to fall on Brooks' shoulders. The right coach could make this work.

Ugh. I was kind of with you until you praised the idea of Beal initiating the offense.

I don't understand your apprehension? This is what players do. They work and expand there game. The dude is 24. If he doesn't expand his game by improving his ball handling and play making, what exactly should he work on?

[Illmatic12]

Last season Bradley Beal ranked 72nd percentile as a PnR ballhandler. In 2016-17 he was 85th percentile.
Of course we want to use him to initiate offense. He's one of the better offensive players in the NBA.

I don't know when it became trendy on here to act like Beal can't dribble or something. Because he gassed out late in the season and had a few bad games?

[payitforward]

These are all pretty reasonable points. At the same time, there are reasonable opposing points. E.g. I agree that stretching Mahinmi would be a mistake, yet I think it'll be a lot harder to get rid of him than the (definitely clever) scheme you mention.

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

You are overstating my optimism.
Kieff: He doesnt need to take an major steps. You take the player he has been more or less over the last 3-4 years, with last year being the most relevant. Its really about him shooting the 3 with more efficiency and frequency. That alone unclogs the lane and makes him more efficient as a scorer. Last year his lateral quickness was clearly hurt by his ankle. It showed up on D and in his ability to draw fouls. I simply think if you take the healthy Kieff from 16/17 with the shot selection of 17/18, you get a solid piece.

Sixers: Again, I see two major issues with them.
1) They are too young. Age & Minutes played of their two stars would be unprecedented for them to be THAT good this early unless they are generationally great... which leads to
2) While their talent is great, Enbiid & Simmons have issues.
- Ben is such a great physical presence with elite vision, that it allowed him to cover up Gaping holes in his offensive game. It think his shot falls in time, but the Celtics gave the blue print on him. I think his sophomore year is a slight regression.
- Embiid almost has the opposite problem. He has no holes, but unlike Ben he is a 5 that you can mitigate touches to. Almost like a great WR in football. You cant stop a QB, pitcher, or primary ball handler from controlling the game. But you can game plan to stop weapons (Wr's, Hitters, Bigs).

They will be VERY good, and in time probably great. But there are big questions about them in the short term.

Other Wiz players: Again, Im not saying all the positives need to happen, just some. But every player is in a better role.
- Rivers isnt starting or counted on to play PG. His perfect role is as a iso creater on the bench next to a strong defender and willing passer (Sato). His role plus his age points to the best version of Rivers yet... not great, but good depth.
- Oubre is in his 4th year and we've seen great strides year over year from him. More Sato and added Rivers takes some creator responsibility out of his hands too.. big weakness as he simply doesn't have the vision/skill/IQ for that.
- Wall is not only healthy, but working his ass off. I think he has one of his better season yet. And I think Beal is simply better from not having to play creator with Wall back.

I'd say I'm understating it!

The Sixers were a better team last year than we've ever been in the Grunfeld era, & if their players are "too young," they are (obviously) going to be a year older than they were last year. Moreover, the idea that basketball, like football, is a game of "specialists" is just plain wrong. When a player is on the court you get every single thing he does & doesn't do.

This is the kind of thinking that had you thinking Mike Scott was going to be a big help (I wouldn't be surprised if you still think he had a good season with us when, in fact, he was absolutely terrible). You repeat it with your comments on Austin Rivers. Bad is bad. Bad players make you worse. If you put a better player in a bad player's place you get better. Period.

That said, I do expect (i.e. hope & see no reason not to hope) that Wall & Beal will get back to playing the way they did two years ago. & I hope Beal doesn't have to come within 75 minutes of leading the league in minutes.

As to Kieff, of course if he shoots the 3 with more efficiency he is a more efficient scorer, especially if he shoots it with more frequency. Duh. That's not a statement about Kieff; it's a statement about the rules of basketball. In fact, Kieff was better this last year than the one before, but it had nothing to do with his shot selection! Above all not with the fact that he took .75 more threes per 40 minutes.

He was better, because he hit his two point shots at 52.9% instead of 48.5%. Otherwise, he was virtually identical to the previous year overall. Now, he took 1.7 fewer 2s per 40 minutes; maybe that's what you mean by his better shot selection (though in fact I think you mean the opposite!).

You don't mention the salient point Zards makes -- if we're a lot better, most of it will be due to Porter maintaining or even improving his level of play while getting significantly more shots. That, a big jump from Oubre, & Satoransky playing over 2000 minutes at the level of last year (or better) are what can make a big difference.

[payitforward]

...If I had to pick an X factor (or three) it would be a healthy and more aggressive Porter--with more shot attempt--the continued development of Oubre, and an improved bench with Sato, Rivers and Green.

On the money (mostly ).

More Porter is better Porter if he stays at his current level (& obviously even better if he improves). He's already our best player; it would be obvious to more people if he scored more points.

& a better Oubre would be huge. He was 3d in minutes last year. He's got to be better than he's been -- a good deal better. And this is kind of year he has to do it.

[prime1time]

As well, of course if the Sixers two best players are injured they lose a lot! Then again, injuries can hit any team -- including us. I.e. if you describe an unlikely scenario (problems on every other team!) then, sure, we would do much better than otherwise. But as things stand, at the very least Toronto, Boston, Philly & Indiana are simply better teams than the Wizards.

Not to mention the optimistic assumptions about our team. Again, sure: if Kieff is a better player than he's ever been, if Austin Rivers is a different player w/ the same name, if Oubre plays like he did the first 1/3 of last season, if Beal returns to his 2016-17 form (his best year ever), if Wall does the same (his best year ever), if Sato gets more minutes, if Howard... whatever, & if Otto stays healthy -- why yes, we might do better than some of those teams: if, that is, they have all those problems you mention.

Or, to put it more succinctly, "we are no threat this year to take the East."

Wouldn't simply having a healthy Wall available for, say, 75-80 games, instead of the 41 he played last season make the Zards a better team than they were last season? Then you add to that what should be improved center play with Howard.

I agree that Toronto, Boston and Philly are better than the Zards. (Although, I think we're close to being as good as Philly.) But I'm not sold on the idea that Indy is better. Yes, Indy won 5 more games than the Zards last season, but, again, that was with WallStar playing just 41 games.

Absolutely! Having Wall back -- & especially if he returns to 2016-17 form -- makes us a better team. If we have improved Center play, that will make us better yet. But, we also added Austin Rivers; he makes us a less good team (how much less depends on how much he plays, & I am afraid he's going to play a lot).

Philly is a better team than we are, Zards. They have a young & very talented core that in the nature of things should be even better this year than last. I haven't really liked their off season much; I thought it was foolish to jettison Holmes & equally foolish to acquire Wilson Chandler (though it cost them literally nothing, & he is expiring -- & they got a R2 pick too. Actually... I guess it wasn't foolish on those terms!), but they haven't hurt themselves & the players they bring back are awfully good.

Indy is a better team than it was last year -- maybe significantly so. The guys they let go either didn't play much or didn't play all that well. They added Tyreke Evans & O'Quinn, & their core guys -- Oladipo, Sabonis, Turner -- are still developing. Sabonis and Turner are younger than Oubre!

I do expect us to be better this year than last year (though Howard is the kind of guy who makes a person nervous!). It would be no surprise if we win 49 games again, which means, obviously, that it's conceivable we do a little better than that. & one or more of those other 4 teams might do worse than expected.

But all the same, that's a long long way from being a threat to take the East.

I'm not to impressed by the 76ers. Until Simmons jumper gets better they will be straight forward to guard. Declaring him PG was a significant mistake. Simmons' jumper will bottleneck not only his development as a player but the entire teams improvement. They were successful last year, but they were also built perfectly for Simmons' game. Embiid, Simmons and 3, 3-point shooters. Look at Simmons' plus/minus in the playoff, it paints a completely different picture of his ability. Simmons off ball is akin to Andre Roberson. Watch Simmons off ball in some of these Embiid highlights. As soon as the ball leaves his hand he becomes a non-factor. If the 76ers figure this out and put him in the post, then they'll become lethal. Until then, I'll have reservations.

Watch on YouTube

;frags=pl%2Cwn

Watch on YouTube

;frags=pl%2Cwn

[prime1time]

*Embiid is a beast, but if you look at his efficiency it's not quite there yet. If he becomes more lethal one-on-one then I'd become more concerned. But being realistic, how many big Men in the past 30 years have become lethal one-on-one scorers in the low post? Shaq and Hakeem? I'll take my chances. And by lethal I mean, one man will not stop him. Forcing you to commit help and giving up open shots somewhere else. Also, Dwight's no slouch.

Watch on YouTube

;frags=pl%2Cwn

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

While I agree with everything you wrote, the challenge with the Wizards is that they have never played up to their ability. On paper we look solid, but for some reason or another it doesn't translate. If we can move the ball offensively and play scrappy defense, we can compete with any team in the East. Beal, Porter and Oubre are better versions of the team that took Boston 7. And that team had no bench. I'm excited to see this team play. I really hope Brooks staggers lineups and gives us more rotations with Beal and Porter initiating the offense. I also think lineups with Rivers being the main ball handler and Oubre working off of him can be effective. Ultimately, I think a lot of pressure is going to fall on Brooks' shoulders. The right coach could make this work.

Agreed...but I think he's NOT the right coach.

[barelyawake]

Why wouldn’t we gather up our scrubs and tack on a pick to get our final piece, and make a real run?