Westgate got the Wizards 6th in east?!

[Illmatic12]

I like what you guys have done and think the wall/Beal/oubre/porter/Howard lineup is going to be really good. If reasonably healthy I would think the third seed is a possibility with around 53 wins. I see it as:

Boston: 60
Toronto: 57
Washington: 53
Philly: 52
Indiana: 49
Milwaukee: 49

And then a big drop off where Miami, Charlotte and Detroit hover around .500. Being a top 2 seed is going to be huge this year to avoid a really tough 1st round match up with those 6 at the top.

Feels like that would be the best Eastern Conference in a long time if the records played out like that.

Boston and Toronto should be 55+ . Washington and Philly in the 48-52 range with normal health (Sixers are so dependent on Embiid’s health, it’s hard to predict for them).

I like Indiana’s offseason but I’m skeptical on whether Oladipo will repeat his lights out production. And very skeptical on Milwaukee, they have poor depth, also a new coach often means a slow start. I’d adjust Indy & Milwaukee to the 44-48 range

I feel like the bottom of the east is just so far off from the talent level at the top that they will just be punching bags for most of these teams, inflating their records. If you told me atlanta, Chicago, Orlando and the Knicks won’t win a single game against the top 6 I wouldn’t be surprised at all.

I actually think Chicago will be a tiny bit better than people think but yeah there are a lot of crappy teams out East. It’s just that certain teams play them more than others.

The Atlantic division is a tough slate , Tor Bos Phi play each other 4x. The Central division has Indy, Mil, Det, Chi, Cle who are all gonna be somewhat competitive enough to steal games from each other. Whereas the Southeast division is the weakest in the entire nba , outside of Washington and Miami I could see the other three teams going full tank mode by the trade deadline

[dckingsfan]

I like what you guys have done and think the wall/Beal/oubre/porter/Howard lineup is going to be really good. If reasonably healthy I would think the third seed is a possibility with around 53 wins. I see it as:

Boston: 60
Toronto: 57
Washington: 53
Philly: 52
Indiana: 49
Milwaukee: 49

And then a big drop off where Miami, Charlotte and Detroit hover around .500. Being a top 2 seed is going to be huge this year to avoid a really tough 1st round match up with those 6 at the top.

Feels like that would be the best Eastern Conference in a long time if the records played out like that.

Boston and Toronto should be 55+ . Washington and Philly in the 48-52 range with normal health (Sixers are so dependent on Embiid’s health, it’s hard to predict for them).

I like Indiana’s offseason but I’m skeptical on whether Oladipo will repeat his lights out production. And very skeptical on Milwaukee, they have poor depth, also a new coach often means a slow start. I’d adjust Indy & Milwaukee to the 44-48 range

I feel like the bottom of the east is just so far off from the talent level at the top that they will just be punching bags for most of these teams, inflating their records. If you told me atlanta, Chicago, Orlando and the Knicks won’t win a single game against the top 6 I wouldn’t be surprised at all.

Remind me - how do we do against bad teams

[Kanyewest]

I like what you guys have done and think the wall/Beal/oubre/porter/Howard lineup is going to be really good. If reasonably healthy I would think the third seed is a possibility with around 53 wins. I see it as:

Boston: 60
Toronto: 57
Washington: 53
Philly: 52
Indiana: 49
Milwaukee: 49

And then a big drop off where Miami, Charlotte and Detroit hover around .500. Being a top 2 seed is going to be huge this year to avoid a really tough 1st round match up with those 6 at the top.

Feels like that would be the best Eastern Conference in a long time if the records played out like that.

Boston and Toronto should be 55+ . Washington and Philly in the 48-52 range with normal health (Sixers are so dependent on Embiid’s health, it’s hard to predict for them).

I like Indiana’s offseason but I’m skeptical on whether Oladipo will repeat his lights out production. And very skeptical on Milwaukee, they have poor depth, also a new coach often means a slow start. I’d adjust Indy & Milwaukee to the 44-48 range

The 76ers seemed to find their groove to close the season on an eight game winning streak without Embiid. Granted the only above .500 teams they faced during that stretch were the Bucks and the Cavs. And they lost Illyasova and Bellineli- although they did get Wilson Chandler.

Oladipo will be interesting to monitor. He is still working out with Peter Alexander who helped transform his body last season. Wall/Rivers are also working with Peter Alexander.

[Illmatic12]

I like what you guys have done and think the wall/Beal/oubre/porter/Howard lineup is going to be really good. If reasonably healthy I would think the third seed is a possibility with around 53 wins. I see it as:

Boston: 60
Toronto: 57
Washington: 53
Philly: 52
Indiana: 49
Milwaukee: 49

And then a big drop off where Miami, Charlotte and Detroit hover around .500. Being a top 2 seed is going to be huge this year to avoid a really tough 1st round match up with those 6 at the top.

Feels like that would be the best Eastern Conference in a long time if the records played out like that.

Boston and Toronto should be 55+ . Washington and Philly in the 48-52 range with normal health (Sixers are so dependent on Embiid’s health, it’s hard to predict for them).

I like Indiana’s offseason but I’m skeptical on whether Oladipo will repeat his lights out production. And very skeptical on Milwaukee, they have poor depth, also a new coach often means a slow start. I’d adjust Indy & Milwaukee to the 44-48 range

The 76ers seemed to find their groove to close the season on an eight game winning streak without Embiid. Granted the only above .500 teams they faced during that stretch were the Bucks and the Cavs. And they lost Illyasova and Bellineli- although they did get Wilson Chandler.

Oladipo will be interesting to monitor. He is still working out with Peter Alexander who helped transform his body last season. Wall/Rivers are also working with Peter Alexander.

Sixers played about 10-15 tanking teams in a row to close the season. If their schedule was arranged a bit differently they probably finish with around 46-48 wins. And they benefited from Ilyasova and Bellineli shooting lights out off the bench like you said.

I think the physical/athletic transformation Oladipo has made is legit. I just don’t think he will continue to shoot lights out on pull-up 3PA. It’s an extremely low percentage shot and Oladipo shot way above average, like almost Steph Curry levels through the first part of the season. He was like 45%+ from deep which was a crazy outlier, and you started to see his shooting %s to the mean down down the stretch.

He will still be an All-Star caliber player but I’m skeptical he will ever be THAT efficient again.

[payitforward]

...It's instructive to compare Simmons's numbers as a rookie to LeBron's. It took LeBron several years to produce numbers as good as Simmons's rookie numbers.

Doesn't prove anything, of course. But... this kid is really something.

Err, I'm not sure they are really the same type of player (Yet). At age 21 LBJ was leagues better as a scorer then Simmons was this past season (where he was also 21). Simmons looks like a 3rd or 4th option player without a jumpshot. Simmons does Board well and get assists (and TOs). I actually like his defense as well. I think he could learn to rotate better but his man defense is stout. Unless he works on his J its going to be harder for him to replicate the level of efficiency he had because defenses have a better idea of how to guard him. Also, he was a 21 y.o rookie last year, he wasn't a completely raw dude a year removed from HS. I don't know about the rest of you but I generally expect older rookies to play a better level. LBJ was demonstratively a better player at 21 then Simmons.

Also why don't you age match seasons when you compare players?

Just a mental slip on my part. You are right; can't compare them as rookies. & anyway, I'm not claiming Simmons will ever be as great a player as LeBron!!

Overall, however, I wouldn't agree that LeBron "was demonstratively a better player at 21 then Simmons," though without question he "was leagues better as a scorer."

In the year LeBron turned 21, his 3d year, his TS% was 56.8% as against Simmons same age TS% of 55.4% -- not to mention that LeBron did it on much higher usage. Then again, Simmons had more defensive boards, more offensive boards, more assists, more steals & more blocks. He did turn it over .75 times more than LeBron per 40 minutes.

Still, let me repeat: in no way am I claiming that Ben Simmons will turn out to be "the next LeBron."

What I am doing is responding to what seemed to me an obvious under-estimation of Simmons & of his rookie season. A season in which, overall, he was already among the top 12-18 players in the league.

For sure, if it's "harder for him to replicate the level of efficiency he had because defenses have a better idea of how to guard him," then that will indicate where his ceiling might turn out to be. &, otoh, if he does get his jumper working... watch out!

We don't know if either of those will work out that way. What we do know is that so far Ben Simmons is a very special player.

[payitforward]

Taking a closer look at the Sixers, I'm starting to agree that they may take a step back.

Five guys they let go for nothing (Anderson, Booker, Holmes, Ilyasova & Belinelli) combined to play 3000 minutes at a level well above their pay grades. Adding Wilson Chandler & Mike Muscala won't make up for them. Sending Luwawu-Cabarrot on his way will help some.

Their young guys should get better, but of the 16 guys currently under contract, six of them are, in effect, rookies (counting Fultz & Korkmaz, who barely played last year, among them).

The guy who could make a big positive difference for them, OTOH, is Saric -- he improved enormously his 2d year, especially as a scorer. If he were to make another such jump, they could be better than last year rather than slipping slightly.

[Dark Faze]

I tend to agree with 538's perspective--48 wins, though I personally think it's a 50 win roster.

[dckingsfan]

I tend to agree with 538's perspective--48 wins, though I personally think it's a 50 win roster.

And 4th in the east!
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-way-too-early-nba-projections-can-tell-us-about-next-season/