Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[d-train]

Click..........

Don't go away mad, just go away.

why are you trying to chase somebody else out of the forum? He hasn't posted anything crazy...just asked a question about Collins. You're the one that went crazy when suggesting that Collins and Tatum had equal value

I'm not trying to chase anyone out. He asked who Olshey would want for Collins and I gave a reasonable answer to the question. The only player Celtics has that could be exchanged for Collins with those 2 players being the major pieces exchanged is Tatum. There is nothing unreasonable about that. He clearly wanted to end the discussion and I had no objection.

[Matt800]

but, there's a giant disconnect on the Cousins-to-Portland notion, that being that it never had a chance and sure looks like it was just typical Olshey deflection, at best, and nothing that was even tried at worst.....

the news came out early on July 2 that Portland was going to sign Curry. It doesn't matter if Portland was going to use the tax-MLE or the BAE to sign Curry, Portland could not receive a player in a S&T after using either exception. Cousins would have had to been traded for before Curry, using all the MLE, then Portland would have had to use the BAE on Curry; then they would have been hard-capped for the year. Not only that, Trent would have had to have been signed before Curry...IIRC Portland could not have signed him once hard-capped...oh...and Stauskas would have had to have been signed before Curry too. And, I'm not sure, but being hard-capped may have somehow monkey-wrenched the Nurkic re-signing. The timing would have been critical with the Curry signing coming last. It's probably all doable but that's a lot of balls in the air with Portland ending up hard-capped by now...ouch

so then, if the Blazers actually made an honest effort at Cousins, which I doubt because of all the reasons above, Cousins would have had to reject the offer immediately....on July 1, which means that all of CJ's angst about Cousins is way off base. Portland never had a chance to get Cousins in a S&T and CJ was buying the Olshey spin...not a good idea

my hunch is that Olshey made as much effort to land Cousins as he did to use the TPE or to trade for Kevin Love...which is pretty close to zero effort while spinning out a lot of smoke about those efforts. "See Dame...I'm really trying!"

Yeah makes sense. It seems like CJ doesn't fully understand team building or roster balance. He also called KD out again on social media about being soft which seems like a low integrity thing to do after having him on your podcast.

[Wizenheimer]

in case anyone hasn't been keeping track

* Ed Davis signed with Brooklyn
* Shabazz Napier signed with Brooklyn
* Noah Vonleh signed with NY
* Pat Connaughton signed with Milwaukee

[JasonStern]

in case anyone hasn't been keeping track
* Pat Connaughton signed with Milwaukee

Bucks or Brewers?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

in case anyone hasn't been keeping track

* Ed Davis signed with Brooklyn
* Shabazz Napier signed with Brooklyn
* Noah Vonleh signed with NY
* Pat Connaughton signed with Milwaukee

All 4 classy players, plus they left the WC so best of luck fellas

[Soulyss]

in case anyone hasn't been keeping track

* Ed Davis signed with Brooklyn
* Shabazz Napier signed with Brooklyn
* Noah Vonleh signed with NY
* Pat Connaughton signed with Milwaukee

Man... the talent in the east...

[Matt800]

Does anyone know how Gallinari is valued these days? If he could be had for Turner and a 1st I think that could be interesting. He's always hurt but might be worth the risk considering Turner has not been a good fit, and a healthy Gallinari would be great for a scoring threat that can shoot 3s and has size.

[BlazersBroncos]

Gallo is so injury prone that I would not add that R1 pick. I would do Turner, Swanigan, R2 for Gallo.

Too bad that Gallo has always been nagged w/ injuries, he was a really fun, athletic, exciting guy back in his early years. 6'10 and so mobile.

[tester551]

Gallo is so injury prone that I would not add that R1 pick. I would do Turner, Swanigan, R2 for Gallo.

Too bad that Gallo has always been nagged w/ injuries, he was a really fun, athletic, exciting guy back in his early years. 6'10 and so mobile.

That would be a perfect trade for Portland! We'd add about $2M in salary, but well worth it.

[Matt800]

Gallo is so injury prone that I would not add that R1 pick. I would do Turner, Swanigan, R2 for Gallo.

Too bad that Gallo has always been nagged w/ injuries, he was a really fun, athletic, exciting guy back in his early years. 6'10 and so mobile.

That would be a perfect trade for Portland! We'd add about $2M in salary, but well worth it.

Yeah I don't know what the Clippers would ask for, but having a healthy Gallinari for the playoffs would be way better than a healthy Turner. It would be one of the few ways POR could potentially have some playoff success.

Although more realistic is Gallinari is hurt pretty much all season, younger guys get more playing time, POR misses the playoffs and gets a lottery pick. And even that is probably a better direction for the future than another year of Turner.

[PDXKnight]

Gallo is so injury prone that I would not add that R1 pick. I would do Turner, Swanigan, R2 for Gallo.

Too bad that Gallo has always been nagged w/ injuries, he was a really fun, athletic, exciting guy back in his early years. 6'10 and so mobile.

That would be a perfect trade for Portland! We'd add about $2M in salary, but well worth it.

Yeah I don't know what the Clippers would ask for, but having a healthy Gallinari for the playoffs would be way better than a healthy Turner. It would be one of the few ways POR could potentially have some playoff success.

Although more realistic is Gallinari is hurt pretty much all season, younger guys get more playing time, POR misses the playoffs and gets a lottery pick. And even that is probably a better direction for the future than another year of Turner.

I think Portland has more of a chance to win games without Turner and think even if Gallo went down we'd still be in a better position to win games than we started. That being said I don't necessarily love a guy from a value standpoint who is oft injured.

[Dame Lizard]

I'd love for Portland to trade Turner + value for Bazemore.

[wco81]

Lillard gave a recent interview about wanting to play as a Blazer for his entire career.

What was interesting to learn is that he's due for a super max extension in 2019. He's going to be averaging around $30 million the next 3 seasons before he becomes a UFA in 2021, around when he turns 31.

So if they give him an extension to append to his current contract, it could be a 5-year deal worth over $200 million, starting at age 31.

He'll still be in his prime for the first 2-3 years of that extension but by the end of it, he may be drawing a huge salary while maybe not being able to play as a full time starter at age 35 or 36.

Of course that's a problem with a lot of these contracts, since players maximize their pay by being a 10-year vet so by the end of their super max deal, they're going to be in their mid 30s.

But not all super max deals are the same. Stephen Curry just have his first year under such a deal and the Warriors won a title. He will also be 34 when his deal ends in 4 years but they have a chance to win more rings.

By contrast, John Wall and Westbrook got their deals signed last year. Westbrook will turn 30 in November and average over $40 million a year in the next 5 seasons. OKC should be able to contend but they lost in the playoffs to Utah, who's got Donovan Mitchell on a rookie deal.

Wall is 27, will be 28 next April. He will only make about $20 million this year but the following 4 seasons will average over $40 million a year. Wizards are unlikely to be contenders during this time, unless the top 3 or 4 teams in the East really fall off.

So in most cases, teams are rewarding their "face of the franchise" players for past service, not necessarily that they will carry them to championships while under those $200 million+ contracts.

Should the Blazers give Lillard that super max extension period?

Or does the team need to take the next step, at least get to the WCF to justify spending whatever it takes to keep this core around Lillard?

You want to reward players like Lillard but in the case of players like Westbrook and Wall, they may just keep their teams on the treadmill and delay these franchises from drafting the next generation of potential superstars.

[JasonStern]

Should the Blazers give Lillard that super max extension period?

I doubt it matters. if the Blazers don't max out Lillard, history shows they'd likely just blow the money on an Evan Turner or Meyers Leonard signing anyway.

[d-train]

Should the Blazers give Lillard that super max extension period?

I doubt it matters. if the Blazers don't max out Lillard, history shows they'd likely just blow the money on an Evan Turner or Meyers Leonard signing anyway.

We signed Turner after having nothing to attract any of the top free agents. We were not a good free agent destination in 2015 after Aldridge decided to leave. Things didn't get much better in 2016 with only Lillard and CJ as real talent. And, no financial assets that would give us a team building advantage since we had no cheap contracts and the CBA blocks us using Allen's wealth.

We signed Meyers because the CBA allowed us to go over the cap to sign him, but doesn't allow us to sign anyone we might prefer.

Should we give Lillard a super max? We should if he earns it. So far, he hasn't earned it. The super max is a way for teams to reward franchise players that accomplish something special. Lillard has been a good soldier but hasn't won any wars.

[wco81]

Well he’s earned it in the sense that he made all NBA so he is eligible to sign after this upcoming season.

Whether the team should give it to him without the team being one of the top 5 or 6 contenders is another question.

If the upside of the team is 50-55 wins and maybe the second round of the WC playoffs during the time he’s making max money, perhaps some people would say it’s not worth paying a player that much.

But if 50-55 wins a year sells out the arena, maybe even raises average ticket prices higher, sell more jerseys, etc. maybe he is worth that contract.

[d-train]

Well he’s earned it in the sense that he made all NBA so he is eligible to sign after this upcoming season.

Whether the team should give it to him without the team being one of the top 5 or 6 contenders is another question.

It's not another question. It is the question. IMO, the answer is no. Super max is for players that make the ultimate difference.

[Agenda42]

Super max is for players that make the ultimate difference.

The super max is borne of the previous CBA, where small market teams complained they couldn't retain their stars because they only had an extra year to offer and superstar players have no fear they won't get maxed out. I estimate that the NBA's vision on this topic is for most teams to have a super max player. It's an attempt to spread talent around the league.

Unfortunately, the cure is worse than the disease. Giving one star teams the ability to pay more results in them having zero chance of assembling a lineup that can compete with the multiple max players on one team thing.

[d-train]

Super max is for players that make the ultimate difference.

The super max is borne of the previous CBA, where small market teams complained they couldn't retain their stars because they only had an extra year to offer and superstar players have no fear they won't get maxed out. I estimate that the NBA's vision on this topic is for most teams to have a super max player. It's an attempt to spread talent around the league.

Unfortunately, the cure is worse than the disease. Giving one star teams the ability to pay more results in them having zero chance of assembling a lineup that can compete with the multiple max players on one team thing.

The disease is bad decision making. The only cure is to make better decisions. Paying the players you have more money is fine if they are winning. Olshey paid this team in 2016 because that put us on the best path we had. Before we doubledown on this team, we should have results or reassurance that the path we are on will bear fruit. I don't feel we have that visibility to see that the core of this team is worth longer term investment. I need results. The team is locked up through 2020/21. We should see improvement this year if there is any chance this team can make a big jump.

[wco81]

CJ for Butler?