538 Projection

[flow]

538 published team projections yesterday. There's a general thread in the mains. Pistons ranked 18th overall, with a predicted 39 wins (same as this past season), giving them a 55% chance of making the playoffs. (seems high for only 39 wins).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-our-way-too-early-nba-projections-can-tell-us-about-next-season/

[ComboGuardCity]

538 was pretty much all wrong last year in standings projections.

[Cowology]

I would not fault anyone for having us as high as 50 or as low as 30, making 39-40 wins a somewhat reasonable middle ground. We are going to be a high variance team riding on the health of 2 guys who have not been able to stay healthy. Not exactly a comfortable spot to be in, especially considering our ceiling even IF everything goes well. Which it probably won't.

[mercury]

I would not fault anyone for having us as high as 50 or as low as 30, making 39-40 wins a somewhat reasonable middle ground. We are going to be a high variance team riding on the health of 2 guys who have not been able to stay healthy. Not exactly a comfortable spot to be in, especially considering our ceiling even IF everything goes well. Which it probably won't.

If there's one thing this team has been is predictably unpredictable.

[Canadafan]

I would not fault anyone for having us as high as 50 or as low as 30, making 39-40 wins a somewhat reasonable middle ground. We are going to be a high variance team riding on the health of 2 guys who have not been able to stay healthy. Not exactly a comfortable spot to be in, especially considering our ceiling even IF everything goes well. Which it probably won't.

Soooo speaking of that, our ceiling IF everything goes well is what? About 50games and maybe a 1st round win if we can get up to a 4 or 5 seed? Sigh.
Let's say we lucked out and traded our "youth" with RJ and got Lillard. A miracle I know. Would a lineup of Lillard Bullock GR3 Blake Drummond be enough to challenge the top teams in East?

[Canadafan]

I would not fault anyone for having us as high as 50 or as low as 30, making 39-40 wins a somewhat reasonable middle ground. We are going to be a high variance team riding on the health of 2 guys who have not been able to stay healthy. Not exactly a comfortable spot to be in, especially considering our ceiling even IF everything goes well. Which it probably won't.

Soooo speaking of that, our ceiling IF everything goes well is what? About 50games and maybe a 1st round win if we can get up to a 4 or 5 seed? Sigh.
Let's say we lucked out and traded our "youth" with RJ and got Lillard. A miracle I know. Would a lineup of Lillard Bullock GR3 Blake Drummond be enough to challenge the top teams in East?

Sorry. I should stop thinking out loud. Not a chance in hell we could get Lillard

[Uncle Mxy]

So, Pop took a largely Kawhi-less Spurs team to 47 wins and the playoffs, they added DeRozan, and they're no longer a .500 team?
Yeah, whatever 538...

[whitehops]

Pistons ranked 18th overall, with a predicted 39 wins (same as this past season), giving them a 55% chance of making the playoffs. (seems high for only 39 wins).

they're probably predicting the east to be really weak past the top teams.

boston, toronto, and philly are the teams likeliest to get 50+ wins, but other than that i wouldn't be surprised if no other team cracked 45 wins.

think of it this way: we had 39 wins last season and came 9th. if most other teams stay the same, you know the cavs are going to drop out of the playoffs which would make us 8th seed.

[Billl]

So, Pop took a largely Kawhi-less Spurs team to 47 wins and the playoffs, they added DeRozan, and they're no longer a .500 team?
Yeah, whatever 538...

I understand not wanting to bet against Pop, but that is an OLD team. Gay is 32, LMA is 33, Gasol is 38, and Ginobli is 41. I'm sure pop will have them playing hard, but most of the rotation is on the decline.

[tmorgan]

So, Pop took a largely Kawhi-less Spurs team to 47 wins and the playoffs, they added DeRozan, and they're no longer a .500 team?
Yeah, whatever 538...

I wouldn't bet on them to finish under .500, but...

Western Conference is friggin fierce, man.

[Spider156]

I would not fault anyone for having us as high as 50 or as low as 30, making 39-40 wins a somewhat reasonable middle ground. We are going to be a high variance team riding on the health of 2 guys who have not been able to stay healthy. Not exactly a comfortable spot to be in, especially considering our ceiling even IF everything goes well. Which it probably won't.

If everything goes well I predict us to be mid seed in the playoffs. We'll be 4-6 if everything goes well. Granted everything has to go well for other teams as well. The way I see it is compared to 5 years ago, betting on health happens. It's better than betting on the team's talent which isn't that great but we've got guys still developing. We'll see what happens.