RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#14 2018-19

[yoyoboy]

I went with Draymond of course. Amazing playmaker, fantastic leader, and the best defender in the league (though he was subpar by his standards last RS because the team as a whole coasted) specifically come playoff time where more game planning is involved and teams like Houston are able to mitigate Gobert's defensive impact by exploiting his subpar ability to defend the perimeter through Harden and Paul isolations and small ball.

2018 Playoffs Houston vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 113.9 DRTG, 141 MIN*
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 117.3 DRTG, 54 MIN*
____________________________________
Net Differential: -3.4 on defense

2017 Playoffs Golden State vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 117.7 DRTG, 139 MIN
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 111.3 DRTG, 53 MIN
_____________________________________
Net Differential: +6.4 on defense

*Note: NBA WOWY is actually missing 29 minutes of playing time and 16 minutes of him on the bench from Gobert in Game 4 for whatever reason. And Gobert was a game worst -27 that day. And just to show how much worse he was than the next guys:

Alec Burks: -9
Dante Exum: -9
Jae Crowder: -9
Royce O'Neal: -11
Rudy Gobert: -27

So actually those numbers in the Houston series really look better than they should be and Gobert's defensive on/off might actually be neutral for the series. Obviously now, it's not a crazy big sample size for on/off, but the fact remains that the Jazz's defense was not performing very well at all with Gobert on the court even if you ignore what happened off the court. And so for a guy whose expectation in regards to his perception as a player is DPOY value, he's been disappointing on that end against more versatile teams in the playoffs.


On the other hand...Draymond is a different story and his defense gets even better come playoffs because he's too versatile to really exploit. As shown by playoff RAPM (2014-2018)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1009708809&single=true

He's pretty far ahead of the pack when it comes to defensive impact. The top guys are:

Green: 4.21 DRAPM
Nene: 2.34 DRAPM
Duncan: 2.12 DRAPM
Ariza: 1.94 DRAPM
Dellavedova: 1.99 DRAPM
Mozgov: 1.72 DRAPM

It's funny to see Delly and Moz in there, though they no doubt being held up by that 2015 postseason run where they were part of an amazing defensive unit with Kyrie and Love injured. Draymond has a great sample size of 3075 minutes played, however, which is more minutes than he's played in any regular season, so the fact that he's so far ahead with that sample is incredible. And I was in awe watching how game changing he was in the Houston series even when his box score numbers were nothing out of the ordinary. The 114.9 ORTG Rockets put up a 104.9 ORTG against the Warriors after smoking the Wolves (116.9 ORTG) and performing very well against the Jazz (111.6 ORTG), and that was with Iggy missing 3/7 games. The Rockets' offensive output versus the Warriors was essentially equivalent to that of the 26th ranked offense Hawks, And Green deserves the vast majority of credit for that because he was everywhere and the horizontal plane he covered and threatened to close out as a defender was simply incredible, as he was very successful in shutting off Houston's uber effective drive and kick to the corner strategy. In the playoffs as a whole, he out up 11 ppg on 53% TS, 11 rpg, 8 apg (and just 3 topg), while providing DPOY level defense. He's easily my next guy here.

[iggymcfrack]

Seemed a little early for Gobert to me, but I guess I see it. If he was Top 10 in RPM and had a 23.4 PER in 2016/17 and then had a little dip from there last year, it’s probably reasonable to attribute that to the injury and assume he’ll be bouncing back this season. Unlike Wall or Cousins, he’s still only 26 years old so there’s every reason to think he can do just that. I still think if I were to pick a player just for the upcoming season, I’d like my ring equity better with Dray, but I get the argument. There actually are a lot of good candidates still. Dray, Gobert, Towns, Lowry, and Simmons all have excellent arguments for the #14 spot.

[iggymcfrack]

I went with Draymond of course. Amazing playmaker, fantastic leader, and the best defender in the league (though he was subpar by his standards last RS because the team as a whole coasted) specifically come playoff time where more game planning is involved and teams like Houston are able to mitigate Gobert's defensive impact by exploiting his subpar ability to defend the perimeter through Harden and Paul isolations and small ball.

2018 Playoffs Houston vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 113.9 DRTG, 141 MIN*
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 117.3 DRTG, 54 MIN*
____________________________________
Net Differential: -3.4 on defense

2017 Playoffs Golden State vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 117.7 DRTG, 139 MIN
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 111.3 DRTG, 53 MIN
_____________________________________
Net Differential: +6.4 on defense

*Note: NBA WOWY is actually missing 29 minutes of playing time and 16 minutes of him on the bench from Gobert in Game 4 for whatever reason. And Gobert was a game worst -27 that day. And just to show how much worse he was than the next guys:

Alec Burks: -9
Dante Exum: -9
Jae Crowder: -9
Royce O'Neal: -11
Rudy Gobert: -27

So actually those numbers in the Houston series really look better than they should be and Gobert's defensive on/off might actually be neutral for the series. Obviously now, it's not a crazy big sample size for on/off, but the fact remains that the Jazz's defense was not performing very well at all with Gobert on the court even if you ignore what happened off the court. And so for a guy whose expectation in regards to his perception as a player is DPOY value, he's been disappointing on that end against more versatile teams in the playoffs.


On the other hand...Draymond is a different story and his defense gets even better come playoffs because he's too versatile to really exploit. As shown by playoff RAPM (2014-2018)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1009708809&single=true

He's pretty far ahead of the pack when it comes to defensive impact. The top guys are:

Green: 4.21 DRAPM
Nene: 2.34 DRAPM
Duncan: 2.12 DRAPM
Ariza: 1.94 DRAPM
Dellavedova: 1.99 DRAPM
Mozgov: 1.72 DRAPM

It's funny to see Delly and Moz in there, though they no doubt being held up by that 2015 postseason run where they were part of an amazing defensive unit with Kyrie and Love injured. Draymond has a great sample size of 3075 minutes played, however, which is more minutes than he's played in any regular season, so the fact that he's so far ahead with that sample is incredible. And I was in awe watching how game changing he was in the Houston series even when his box score numbers were nothing out of the ordinary. The 114.9 ORTG Rockets put up a 104.9 ORTG against the Warriors after smoking the Wolves (116.9 ORTG) and performing very well against the Jazz (111.6 ORTG), and that was with Iggy missing 3/7 games. The Rockets' offensive output versus the Warriors was essentially equivalent to that of the 26th ranked offense Hawks, And Green deserves the vast majority of credit for that because he was everywhere and the horizontal plane he covered and threatened to close out as a defender was simply incredible, as he was very successful in shutting off Houston's uber effective drive and kick to the corner strategy. In the playoffs as a whole, he out up 11 ppg on 53% TS, 11 rpg, 8 apg (and just 3 topg), while providing DPOY level defense. He's easily my next guy here.

Really excellent post. The people who try to prop up one-dimensional scorers always use “PLAYOFFS!!!” as their argument, but I really think it’s defensive players that have the most variance in their postseason performance. A guy that guards his position well but is vulnerable one-on-one if the offense works hard to get a switch for the matchup they want becomes much less valuable. Capela and Gobert both had the same kind of issues when they had to deal with guards more in the pick and roll while an all-around balanced defender like Draymond becomes much more valuable. I probably would have had Dray somewhere around 14 in my mental list going into this project, but the more in-depth postseason data I look at, the more I feel like he probably is more valuable than a Jokic or Westbrook type and should be Top 10. Still would have had him behind Dipo so it wouldn’t have changed my voting, but he’s definitely gone up in my estimation over the course of these discussions. Honestly, in the playoffs he might be the best player on that team.

[deneem4]

Draymond has to come before gobert lets be serious...

Lillard irving and wall are a tossup...kyrie haa had the finala exposure but with the celtics achieving without him raises eyebrows because lillard and wall are the back bones of theyre teams

George need some respect added to him as well he had a terrible game 7 but hes still a top 5 sf and he play on both ends....

This should be between draymond and george

[deneem4]

I went with Draymond of course. Amazing playmaker, fantastic leader, and the best defender in the league (though he was subpar by his standards last RS because the team as a whole coasted) specifically come playoff time where more game planning is involved and teams like Houston are able to mitigate Gobert's defensive impact by exploiting his subpar ability to defend the perimeter through Harden and Paul isolations and small ball.

2018 Playoffs Houston vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 113.9 DRTG, 141 MIN*
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 117.3 DRTG, 54 MIN*
____________________________________
Net Differential: -3.4 on defense

2017 Playoffs Golden State vs. Utah:

Jazz w/ Gobert ON: 117.7 DRTG, 139 MIN
Jazz w/ Gobert OFF: 111.3 DRTG, 53 MIN
_____________________________________
Net Differential: +6.4 on defense

*Note: NBA WOWY is actually missing 29 minutes of playing time and 16 minutes of him on the bench from Gobert in Game 4 for whatever reason. And Gobert was a game worst -27 that day. And just to show how much worse he was than the next guys:

Alec Burks: -9
Dante Exum: -9
Jae Crowder: -9
Royce O'Neal: -11
Rudy Gobert: -27

So actually those numbers in the Houston series really look better than they should be and Gobert's defensive on/off might actually be neutral for the series. Obviously now, it's not a crazy big sample size for on/off, but the fact remains that the Jazz's defense was not performing very well at all with Gobert on the court even if you ignore what happened off the court. And so for a guy whose expectation in regards to his perception as a player is DPOY value, he's been disappointing on that end against more versatile teams in the playoffs.


On the other hand...Draymond is a different story and his defense gets even better come playoffs because he's too versatile to really exploit. As shown by playoff RAPM (2014-2018)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1009708809&single=true

He's pretty far ahead of the pack when it comes to defensive impact. The top guys are:

Green: 4.21 DRAPM
Nene: 2.34 DRAPM
Duncan: 2.12 DRAPM
Ariza: 1.94 DRAPM
Dellavedova: 1.99 DRAPM
Mozgov: 1.72 DRAPM

It's funny to see Delly and Moz in there, though they no doubt being held up by that 2015 postseason run where they were part of an amazing defensive unit with Kyrie and Love injured. Draymond has a great sample size of 3075 minutes played, however, which is more minutes than he's played in any regular season, so the fact that he's so far ahead with that sample is incredible. And I was in awe watching how game changing he was in the Houston series even when his box score numbers were nothing out of the ordinary. The 114.9 ORTG Rockets put up a 104.9 ORTG against the Warriors after smoking the Wolves (116.9 ORTG) and performing very well against the Jazz (111.6 ORTG), and that was with Iggy missing 3/7 games. The Rockets' offensive output versus the Warriors was essentially equivalent to that of the 26th ranked offense Hawks, And Green deserves the vast majority of credit for that because he was everywhere and the horizontal plane he covered and threatened to close out as a defender was simply incredible, as he was very successful in shutting off Houston's uber effective drive and kick to the corner strategy. In the playoffs as a whole, he out up 11 ppg on 53% TS, 11 rpg, 8 apg (and just 3 topg), while providing DPOY level defense. He's easily my next guy here.

Really excellent post. The people who try to prop up one-dimensional scorers always use “PLAYOFFS!!!” as their argument, but I really think it’s defensive players that have the most variance in their postseason performance. A guy that guards his position well but is vulnerable one-on-one if the offense works hard to get a switch for the matchup they want becomes much less valuable. Capela and Gobert both had the same kind of issues when they had to deal with guards more in the pick and roll while an all-around balanced defender like Draymond becomes much more valuable. I probably would have had Dray somewhere around 14 in my mental list going into this project, but the more in-depth postseason data I look at, the imore I feel like he probably is more valuable than a Jokic or Westbrook type and should be Top 10. Still would have had him behind Dipo so it wouldn’t have changed my voting, but he’s definitely gone up in my estimation over the course of these discussions. Honestly, in the playoffs he might be the best player on that team.

Love draymond but kevin dufense came alive and was jus as good in the playoffs

[Harry Garris]

Draymonds gotta be a top 15 player

[Atmanne]

Voting Draymond, nominating Aldridge

[TreymondGreen]

BDD - big donga dray


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[Spens1]

Lillard has already slipped about 2 spots too many.

He's really not that much worse than the other top P.G's really (and he's more reliable than Irving).

[Johnny Tomala]

I knew Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins were underrated on this board but I didn't know how much. Oladipo is nowhere near Irving and Cousins was the best Center in the league till his injury (Davis is PF) and until I see him post injury and see that he doesn't play near 80% of his capabilities, I still have Cousins as best C. Voted Irving, add Cousins.

[JShuttlesworth]

Can't believe Dipo came in at number 13. Wow.

I voted Kyrie for this one.

[SlowPaced]

Someone needs to link this thread to Kyrie, who believes he's the best player in the world. Voted Gobert.

Kyrie would do nothing but laugh at this thread, considering it wouldn't be surprising if he falls out of the Top 20 at this point.

Really excellent post. The people who try to prop up one-dimensional scorers always use “PLAYOFFS!!!” as their argument, but I really think it’s defensive players that have the most variance in their postseason performance.

It's hysterical that you don't realize that you're providing the backbone for the PLAYOFFS!!! argument for scorers by saying defensive players step it up in the postseason. Yup, that's the point. That's what seperates the elite scorers who can get it done in the PS than the ones who can get it done in the RS.

[sikma42]

How Jimmy Butler get so high doe


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[iggymcfrack]

I knew Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins were underrated on this board but I didn't know how much. Oladipo is nowhere near Irving and Cousins was the best Center in the league till his injury (Davis is PF) and until I see him post injury and see that he doesn't play near 80% of his capabilities, I still have Cousins as best C. Voted Irving, add Cousins.

Oladipo’s certainly nowhere near Irving all right. The difference between Oladipo’s defense and Kyrie’s defense > the difference between Kyrie’s offense and a league average player’s offense. And Oladipo’s one of the best offensive players in the league. Also, he actually shows up for the playoffs. Like he wears a uniform on the court instead of a suit on the sideline.

[iggymcfrack]

How Jimmy Butler get so high doe


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He was a legitimate MVP candidate before the injury last year and then his team went from lock top 4 seed to almost missing the playoffs when he got hurt. He finished 4th in RPM for the season behind Paul, Harden, and Curry.

[donkeylips]

Add klay

[mefromthefuture]

KAT

[bo8403]

Nom Klay

[jpengland]

Does Kyrie Irving surrounded by 4 average NBA starters give you a top 3 offense in the league? Nope.

Does Rudy Gobert and four average starters give you a top 3 defense in the league? Probably.

Rudy Gobert, not even close.

[sikma42]

How Jimmy Butler get so high doe


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He was a legitimate MVP candidate before the injury last year and then his team went from lock top 4 seed to almost missing the playoffs when he got hurt. He finished 4th in RPM for the season behind Paul, Harden, and Curry.

I don’t follow RPM. But there are several players that organizations value more and I’d imagine people just understand are simply better. Jimmy Butler in no world is the 10th best player imo. Not even close


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