2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Schad]

Bo is on a five-game streak with at least two hits, one for extra bases. His average is approaching .300, and his OPS is above .800. This has been your regularly-scheduled reminder that Bichette is Fine.

[Schad]

Noda's also finishing the season strong. 20 HRs, 129 Ks (25.3%) and 104 walks (20.4%). Bit surprised that he played the totality of the season in Lansing.

[SharoneWright]

Noda's also finishing the season strong. 20 HRs, 129 Ks (25.3%) and 104 walks (20.4%). Bit surprised that he played the totality of the season in Lansing.

He's not top30 MLB pipeline right now,,, should he be?

Edit: too much

[Schad]

He was top 30 prior to the deadline; he's probably 32nd or 33rd or something, in that big amorphous group of lesser prospects. As a 22 year old corner OF/1B, he'll need to hit at a higher level before getting taken too seriously as a prospect, but walking 20% of the time and posting an ISO of .236 is enough to make him worth watching.

Plus, y'know, 50% true outcome rate.

[dagger]

Appy League playoffs began last night. Bluefield won. Eric Pardhino had a rough night, not getting an out in a six run second inning before he was lifted. Down 7-3 at that point, his teammates lifted him up. That team has the most potent offence in the farm system by far, and they simply steamrolled Princeton. The box score pretty much says it as well as I can.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2018_08_31_prirok_blurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

[VanWest82]

Hey dagger, how do you see the infield shaking out with the young guys (Vlad, Gurriel, Bichette, and Biggio)? Looks like all four of them might be up next year. I'm assuming Jays will wait until Tulo and Travis inevitably go down to bring up the latter two.

Also, is Gurriel a SS? Seems like Jays are trying to make that work. Like his arm and play making but not sure he's a natural fit there. Warmoth and Smith seem like they're a ways away but maybe one of those guys is the l/t answer. Either way, it's getting to be a bit of a logjam at 2nd and 3rd base.

[Schad]

I'm really not sold on Gurriel, either as a shortstop or a hitter. While there's no question that he makes hard contact, his approach is flawed enough that I don't know that he can be a viable hitter above 7th in the lineup long-term, and his defense is poor enough that I wouldn't bank on him being more than an average starting option.

Could be useful trade bait if nothing else, however.

[VanWest82]

I'm really not sold on Gurriel, either as a shortstop or a hitter. While there's no question that he makes hard contact, his approach is flawed enough that I don't know that he can be a viable hitter above 7th in the lineup long-term, and his defense is poor enough that I wouldn't bank on him being more than an average starting option.

Could be useful trade bait if nothing else, however.

There's definitely potential for some value in that contract. He feels like the classic anti-moneyball hitter though: with such a poor (sub 3!) BB% and so so slugging, he needs to hit .300 just to break 100 wRC+ (he's only 106 right now despite his crazy streak).

It's possible he's a perennial .300+ hitter though. He isn't just making hard contact; he's making contact consistently, and so far 0 DPs this year. That's either really lucky or he's connecting well enough, consistently enough to lower his chances (or there's never anyone on base. Ha).

[Schad]

There's definitely potential for some value in that contract. He feels like the classic anti-moneyball hitter though: with such a poor (sub 3!) BB% and so so slugging, he needs to hit .300 just to break 100 wRC+ (he's only 106 right now despite his crazy streak).

It's possible he's a perennial .300+ hitter though. He isn't just making hard contact; he's making contact consistently, and so far 0 DPs this year. That's either really lucky or he's connecting well enough, consistently enough to lower his chances (or there's never anyone on base. Ha).

The lack of DPs is definitely luck. 42.1% of his balls in play have been on the ground, and he isn't exceptionally speedy...there's no special talent for avoiding GIDPs long-term.

[vaff87]

I'm really not sold on Gurriel, either as a shortstop or a hitter. While there's no question that he makes hard contact, his approach is flawed enough that I don't know that he can be a viable hitter above 7th in the lineup long-term, and his defense is poor enough that I wouldn't bank on him being more than an average starting option.

Could be useful trade bait if nothing else, however.

I like Lourdes, but I find him both a smart and a dumb hitter. He’ll purposely shoot the ball through hole on the right side when the situation calls for it, unlike a lot of guys. But, of course, he also swings at everything. However, he seems to be a pretty solid bad ball hitter. I remember a homer he hit in Chicago was well inside.

I think his defense is TBD. He has a strong arm, though. And his speed is a decent bit above average. Average sprint speed is 27.0 f/s; he’s at 28.2 f/s.

[bluerap23]

Gurriel will at least be an above average utility guy. Teams need those. We have far better infield prospects so I find it strange that he hasn't played a single game in the OF since he joined the organization (the majority of his last year in Cuba was in LF). Especially considering how week our outfield prospects are.

On the walk rate: the weird thing is he had a decent walk rate in Cuba. Not sure why that part of his game has fallen off. He is facing better pitching, but wouldn't expect such a dramatic difference with balls and strikes.

It's also fair to mention that he is only 24 and started last season in Dunedin and struggled with injuries. He has been pretty good for a guy playing across 3 levels in his first semi-healthy year in North America.

[vaff87]

Gurriel will at least be an above average utility guy. Teams need those. We have far better infield prospects so I find it strange that he hasn't played a single game in the OF since he joined the organization (the majority of his last year in Cuba was in LF). Especially considering how week our outfield prospects are.

On the walk rate: the weird thing is he had a decent walk rate in Cuba. Not sure why that part of his game has fallen off. He is facing better pitching, but wouldn't expect such a dramatic difference with balls and strikes.

It's also fair to mention that he is only 24 and started last season in Dunedin and struggled with injuries. He has been pretty good for a guy playing across 3 levels in his first semi-healthy year in North America.

Not to mention he had a year where he didn’t play at all.

[Lateral Quicks]

If this box score is correct, it looks like Nash Knight played every single position (including pitcher and catcher) in today's game. Looks like he didn't record an out though hehe. Manager having some fun as the season winds down?

[Lateral Quicks]

Great day for Ramirez in NH - 2 for 2 with 2 BB. We need to see more walks and more power - the power has come along a bit this year, but the walks haven't. If he had a 10% walk rate he'd currently be getting on base over 40% of the time this year. I'm hoping he takes another step forward in Buffalo next year - the big club desperately needs a .300+ average bat. Hopefully Vlad supplies one of those next year.

[dagger]

Logan Warmoth was meh at the plate this season, but finished strongly the past five weeks, pushing his avg to almost .250. Rodrigo Orozco and Ivan Castillo tied to the batting title for the FSL with .304 averages. Kevin Smith and Castillo were fifth and sixth in OPS respectively at .799 and .794. Joshua Palacios led the league in RBIs (78). Patrick Murphy was pitcher of the year. with a 10-5 record, .264 ERA, with 135 K in 146 innings, and its the 146 innings which are most impressive for a guy whose career to date has had lots of lost injury time.

[Schad]

Today was the last day of the season for Buffalo. Vlad finishes up the year with a .381/.437/.636 line in 95 games; Tellez has a .270/.340/.425 mark, with Alford posting a pretty awful .238/.314/.339 line. Hopefully the latter has had a physical issue that hampered him and will heal by spring, because his prospect stock has taken a major hit this year.

[bluerap23]

Tellez had a very strong second half this year. Hopefully he has finally turned the corner. I'd prefer to see him next year over Morales.

[dagger]

Tonight, Lansing plays Michigan State in the annual Crosstown game.

Read on Twitter

[dagger]

Read on Twitter

[polo007]

The Toronto Blue Jays have the fifth-best farm system in baseball according to MLB Pipeline’s ranking from last month and general manager Ross Atkins spoke glowingly of the team’s prospects over the weekend. ESPN senior writer Keith Law doesn’t agree.

https://www.tsn.ca/law-on-jays-it-s-not-a-top-10-system-1.1168004

The Toronto Blue Jays have the fifth-best farm system in baseball according to MLB Pipeline’s ranking from last month and general manager Ross Atkins spoke glowingly of the team’s prospects over the weekend.

ESPN senior writer Keith Law doesn’t agree.

“It’s not a top 10 system. I think that’s absurd. I understand that teams like to boast about their own farm systems, but the objective evidence is simply not there. I find that really empty,” Law said Wednesday on Landsberg in the Morning.

“Look, everybody thinks they have a good farm system, but it is disturbing when you exaggerate to that extent. The Blue Jays have a top-heavy system. They have arguably three prospects who are among the elite in the game and then below that it gets very thin very quickly.”

The three Law is referring to are likely Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Danny Jansen, who has held his own in 44 at-bats at the big-league level.

Law, who worked for the club from 2002 to 2006 in the scouting department and as a special assistant to GM J.P. Ricciardi, disagrees, saying the Jays’ system lacks depth.

“Farm systems that look like this are never in my top 10,” Law said. “The top 10 systems in baseball, objectively, should have both star-calibre prospects and quite a bit of depth of future average-or-better major leaguers. They don’t have the latter.”

The Jays added to their prospect pool with a flurry of trades this summer, but Law isn’t overly excited about the return.

“If you look at the results from the trades now, really they waited too long to trade a couple of key pieces and the returns have been very meager,” he said.