RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#14 2018-19 TIEBREAKER

[Funcrusher]

Wtf. Some of the Kyrie hate is unreal. Guys been getting it his whole career. I think he's become a victim of media hype, and so now people are going overboard the other way.

What's the argument for Kyrie over Gobert? Almost all advanced metrics paint Gobert as the more impactful player.

Kyrie was better in WS/48, BPM, PIE and PIPM. Gobert was better in On/Off NetRtg and RAPM.

And besides, advanced metrics are only used on this board when convenient. For example, Gobert received 50 votes in the most recent poll compared to KAT getting 5, despite KAT leading Gobert across the board in advanced metrics: WS/48, BPM, PIE, PIPM, On/Off NetRtg and RAPM (and even in RPM for those who like to cite that). And that comparison is more sound than Gobert vs. Irving because Gobert and KAT play the same position. Pretty much the same goes for Lillard and Irving - Lillard leads in most advanced stats, but Irving received many more votes.

:shrug:

In all fairness, I was one of the few that voted for KAT before the tiebreaker, and agree that he should be taken before Gobert. There's a case for Irving over Gobert, but not a strong one imo.

[ITYSL]

What's the argument for Kyrie over Gobert? Almost all advanced metrics paint Gobert as the more impactful player.

Kyrie was better in WS/48, BPM, PIE and PIPM. Gobert was better in On/Off NetRtg and RAPM.

And besides, advanced metrics are only used on this board when convenient. For example, Gobert received 50 votes in the most recent poll compared to KAT getting 5, despite KAT leading Gobert across the board in advanced metrics: WS/48, BPM, PIE, PIPM, On/Off NetRtg and RAPM (and even in RPM for those who like to cite that). And that comparison is more sound than Gobert vs. Irving because Gobert and KAT play the same position. Pretty much the same goes for Lillard and Irving - Lillard leads in most advanced stats, but Irving received many more votes.

:shrug:

In all fairness, I was one of the few that voted for KAT before the tiebreaker, and agree that he should be taken before Gobert. There's a case for Irving over Gobert, but not a strong one imo.

Yep. IMO there's a fair case for Gobert and Lillard over Kyrie. However, this board's obsession with an undocumented, untested stat like RPM in order to argue that Kyrie shouldn't even be considered a top 15 player is amusing.

Regarding Gobert and Kyrie, I think it's largely what you value. Gobert brings DPOY value and a solid interior offensive presence, but completely lacks any kind of stretch 5 skills that are being emphasized and favored a lot more in today's game. Kyrie brings elite scoring ability and better playmaking at the offensive end, but is a serious defensive liability that opposing offenses could target, especially in the playoffs.

I'm fine with people picking Gobert over Kyrie. Posters like iggy and clyde being perplexed that there could possibly be ANY argument for Kyrie over Gobert is when I scratch my head.

[yoyoboy]

Hmm. I just can’t see Gobert over Draymond given Gobert’s inability to sustain his level of defensive impact in the playoffs as teams game plan more and force him out on the perimeter to a greater degree. Draymond’s versatility has led to him being a much more valuable playoff defender and then he’s better on offense with his far and away superior playmaking and better floor spacing ability.

[ProcessDoctor]

Draymond, Lillard, and Gobert should all be ahead of Kyrie.

[clyde21]

Why are Boston fans so mad? Is it really a travesty that Kyrie hasn't been ranked yet?

[jjscap]

Draymond, Lillard, and Gobert should all be ahead of Kyrie.

Lillard should be selected the next round. Kyrie is not close to his level.

[ITYSL]

Why are Boston fans so mad? Is it really a travesty that Kyrie hasn't been ranked yet?

Nope, not a travesty at all. "You mad" replies are pretty lame, though. Projection, perhaps? Starting with the Jokic thread, there have been far more posts from people arguing against Kyrie than posts by Celtics fans.

[clyde21]

Why are Boston fans so mad? Is it really a travesty that Kyrie hasn't been ranked yet?

Nope, not a travesty at all. "You mad" replies are pretty lame, though. Projection, perhaps? Starting with the Jokic thread, there have been far more posts from people arguing against Kyrie than posts by Celtics fans.

It's not a 'you mad' reply at all...it's a why are Boston fans complaining that legitimate better players than Kyrie are ahead of him?

[jirrit]

Gobert played 56 games and 11 play-offs games this season. Is he injury prone?

How can you know that Kyrie's impact in the play-offs is smaller than Gobert's if he didn't play? That only works if you are assuming ECF was the max ceiling with him playing, but that's nothing but an assumption, isnt it? Anyhow, I go Kyrie here, even if he would be a Cav under Lebron.

[iggymcfrack]

Kyrie was better in WS/48, BPM, PIE and PIPM. Gobert was better in On/Off NetRtg and RAPM.

And besides, advanced metrics are only used on this board when convenient. For example, Gobert received 50 votes in the most recent poll compared to KAT getting 5, despite KAT leading Gobert across the board in advanced metrics: WS/48, BPM, PIE, PIPM, On/Off NetRtg and RAPM (and even in RPM for those who like to cite that). And that comparison is more sound than Gobert vs. Irving because Gobert and KAT play the same position. Pretty much the same goes for Lillard and Irving - Lillard leads in most advanced stats, but Irving received many more votes.

:shrug:

In all fairness, I was one of the few that voted for KAT before the tiebreaker, and agree that he should be taken before Gobert. There's a case for Irving over Gobert, but not a strong one imo.

Yep. IMO there's a fair case for Gobert and Lillard over Kyrie. However, this board's obsession with an undocumented, untested stat like RPM in order to argue that Kyrie shouldn't even be considered a top 15 player is amusing.

Regarding Gobert and Kyrie, I think it's largely what you value. Gobert brings DPOY value and a solid interior offensive presence, but completely lacks any kind of stretch 5 skills that are being emphasized and favored a lot more in today's game. Kyrie brings elite scoring ability and better playmaking at the offensive end, but is a serious defensive liability that opposing offenses could target, especially in the playoffs.

I'm fine with people picking Gobert over Kyrie. Posters like iggy and clyde being perplexed that there could possibly be ANY argument for Kyrie over Gobert is when I scratch my head.

I’m generally a fairly big RPM guy, yes, as it’s the stat I’ve found that best makes sense as a comprehensive ranking although I’m not beholden to it if there’s valid reasons why it might be biased or missing something in a certain case. I’m also open to looking at other data if people have valid arguments for it. This PIPM sounds intriguing for instance. Was just trying to find out more about it now.

With Kyrie though, you really don’t need any kind of fancy regression to see his limited impact. 2 of the last 3 seasons, he’s missed 20+ games and his team’s had the same record with or without him within a game. His raw on/off is generally around +3 and his playoff on/off is around +1. It just seems intuitively obvious that he’s not a very impactful player even if RPM didn’t exist.

[iggymcfrack]

Gobert played 56 games and 11 play-offs games this season. Is he injury prone?

How can you know that Kyrie's impact in the play-offs is smaller than Gobert's if he didn't play? That only works if you are assuming ECF was the max ceiling with him playing, but that's nothing but an assumption, isnt it? Anyhow, I go Kyrie here, even if he would be a Cav under Lebron.

Gobert’s played 87% of the Jazz’s games over 4 seasons where he’s been a regular rotation guy with 2 injuries and 2 years where he missed one game total. That’s not really injury-prone enough for me to worry about. Kyrie’s played 79% of his team’s games over 7 seasons and has had at least one injury every season. I would consider that more concerning.

Honestly, while I do think Gobert’s better than Kyrie though, I wouldn’t consider it a complete and utter lock and I could understand an argument that Gobert hasn’t shown he can affect the game in the playoffs. Given that he’s only had 20 career playoff games and that he’s only lost playoff series against all-time great teams, I wouldn’t consider that a big enough knock to put him behind Kyrie for next season, but I could understand why someone would. Same with Towns. I’d have him significantly ahead of Kyrie for next season, but I could understand an argument against it after last year’s playoffs. If you’re gonna weight the playoffs that highly though, then to be consistent you damn well better have Draymond in your Top 10 and Derozan outside your Top 40.

The only players that haven’t been voted in that I would say should be 100% definitely ahead of Kyrie with no legitimate argument to the contrary are Draymond Green and Kyle Lowry.

[pingpongrac]

Why are Boston fans so mad? Is it really a travesty that Kyrie hasn't been ranked yet?

It's silly. After the top 3, it's unclear who the next best player is. There's an argument to be made for a dozen players from 4-10 - and it gets even more unclear after that. For example, I think Lowry is a top ~15 player, but I'd be surprised if he makes it in this top 25. After five years of Toronto winning ~50 games, I think Lowry deserves to start getting some votes now because he was the main reason for their success and, while he doesn't have as many big scoring games as other stars, he can take over a game in a few different ways. I'm not going to get upset if he doesn't make the cut, though, because there are just so many other players that are around the same level.

[Catchall]

I wonder if Gobert will get added to the All Star team this year. Seems like he should.

[ITYSL]

Why are Boston fans so mad? Is it really a travesty that Kyrie hasn't been ranked yet?

Nope, not a travesty at all. "You mad" replies are pretty lame, though. Projection, perhaps? Starting with the Jokic thread, there have been far more posts from people arguing against Kyrie than posts by Celtics fans.

It's not a 'you mad' reply at all...it's a why are Boston fans complaining that legitimate better players than Kyrie are ahead of him?

Lol, what? It's not complaining. It's making a case for one player over another, just like everyone has been doing throughout these poll threads. And it's not just Boston fans, in fact many of the people in the thread that led to this tiebreaker who were arguing for Kyrie were not Boston fans at all.

[ITYSL]

In all fairness, I was one of the few that voted for KAT before the tiebreaker, and agree that he should be taken before Gobert. There's a case for Irving over Gobert, but not a strong one imo.

Yep. IMO there's a fair case for Gobert and Lillard over Kyrie. However, this board's obsession with an undocumented, untested stat like RPM in order to argue that Kyrie shouldn't even be considered a top 15 player is amusing.

Regarding Gobert and Kyrie, I think it's largely what you value. Gobert brings DPOY value and a solid interior offensive presence, but completely lacks any kind of stretch 5 skills that are being emphasized and favored a lot more in today's game. Kyrie brings elite scoring ability and better playmaking at the offensive end, but is a serious defensive liability that opposing offenses could target, especially in the playoffs.

I'm fine with people picking Gobert over Kyrie. Posters like iggy and clyde being perplexed that there could possibly be ANY argument for Kyrie over Gobert is when I scratch my head.

I’m generally a fairly big RPM guy, yes, as it’s the stat I’ve found that best makes sense as a comprehensive ranking although I’m not beholden to it if there’s valid reasons why it might be biased or missing something in a certain case. I’m also open to looking at other data if people have valid arguments for it. This PIPM sounds intriguing for instance. Was just trying to find out more about it now.

With Kyrie though, you really don’t need any kind of fancy regression to see his limited impact. 2 of the last 3 seasons, he’s missed 20+ games and his team’s had the same record with or without him within a game. His raw on/off is generally around +3 and his playoff on/off is around +1. It just seems intuitively obvious that he’s not a very impactful player even if RPM didn’t exist.

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

[iggymcfrack]

Yep. IMO there's a fair case for Gobert and Lillard over Kyrie. However, this board's obsession with an undocumented, untested stat like RPM in order to argue that Kyrie shouldn't even be considered a top 15 player is amusing.

Regarding Gobert and Kyrie, I think it's largely what you value. Gobert brings DPOY value and a solid interior offensive presence, but completely lacks any kind of stretch 5 skills that are being emphasized and favored a lot more in today's game. Kyrie brings elite scoring ability and better playmaking at the offensive end, but is a serious defensive liability that opposing offenses could target, especially in the playoffs.

I'm fine with people picking Gobert over Kyrie. Posters like iggy and clyde being perplexed that there could possibly be ANY argument for Kyrie over Gobert is when I scratch my head.

I’m generally a fairly big RPM guy, yes, as it’s the stat I’ve found that best makes sense as a comprehensive ranking although I’m not beholden to it if there’s valid reasons why it might be biased or missing something in a certain case. I’m also open to looking at other data if people have valid arguments for it. This PIPM sounds intriguing for instance. Was just trying to find out more about it now.

With Kyrie though, you really don’t need any kind of fancy regression to see his limited impact. 2 of the last 3 seasons, he’s missed 20+ games and his team’s had the same record with or without him within a game. His raw on/off is generally around +3 and his playoff on/off is around +1. It just seems intuitively obvious that he’s not a very impactful player even if RPM didn’t exist.

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

I generally value wing and point guard defense more than a lot of people do. That’s why I’m high on Oladipo, CP3, and Lowry, and low on Kyrie, Derozan, and Lou Williams. If anything, I think that’s the lesson from these advanced stats more than where they rank individual players is that generally elite defenders are more valuable than most people think and defensive liabilities are less valuable.

[ITYSL]

I’m generally a fairly big RPM guy, yes, as it’s the stat I’ve found that best makes sense as a comprehensive ranking although I’m not beholden to it if there’s valid reasons why it might be biased or missing something in a certain case. I’m also open to looking at other data if people have valid arguments for it. This PIPM sounds intriguing for instance. Was just trying to find out more about it now.

With Kyrie though, you really don’t need any kind of fancy regression to see his limited impact. 2 of the last 3 seasons, he’s missed 20+ games and his team’s had the same record with or without him within a game. His raw on/off is generally around +3 and his playoff on/off is around +1. It just seems intuitively obvious that he’s not a very impactful player even if RPM didn’t exist.

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

I generally value wing and point guard defense more than a lot of people do. That’s why I’m high on Oladipo, CP3, and Lowry, and low on Kyrie, Derozan, and Lou Williams. If anything, I think that’s the lesson from these advanced stats more than where they rank individual players is that generally elite defenders are more valuable than most people think and defensive liabilities are less valuable.

Definitely agree that an advanced stat like RPM highlights elite defenders more than traditional stats. My thought, though, is that elite offense is more important in today's game than elite defense, and so weighing them equally for a stat like RPM is folly.

I might have to run some numbers from RPM for the last few years to see whether ORPM or DRPM has a higher correlative factor to Win% ! Good chat, cheers

[iggymcfrack]

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

I generally value wing and point guard defense more than a lot of people do. That’s why I’m high on Oladipo, CP3, and Lowry, and low on Kyrie, Derozan, and Lou Williams. If anything, I think that’s the lesson from these advanced stats more than where they rank individual players is that generally elite defenders are more valuable than most people think and defensive liabilities are less valuable.

Definitely agree that an advanced stat like RPM highlights elite defenders more than traditional stats. My thought, though, is that elite offense is more important in today's game than elite defense, and so weighing them equally for a stat like RPM is folly.

I might have to run some numbers from RPM for the last few years to see whether ORPM or DRPM has a higher correlative factor to Win% ! Good chat, cheers

They don’t weigh them equally though. They weight them according to their impact. Oladipo is one of only 4 wings/points with a DRPM over 3. Kyrie is one of 12 offensive wings/points with an ORPM over 3. These formulas aren’t just playing guessing games to evaluate offensive impact vs. defensive impact. They’re mathematically deriving formulas to see how much offense impacts the game compared to defense and they determined that offense has a significant edge, but not enough for Top 10-15 players on offense that are bad on D to rank in the Top 30 overall. That’s exactly the lesson I think we should learn. So when people say “this guy who’s #13 on offense and #300 on defense is probably better than another guy who’s #20 on offense and #17 on defense”, I can say “no we have data that directly disputes that. Defense matters.”

[sikma42]

I’m generally a fairly big RPM guy, yes, as it’s the stat I’ve found that best makes sense as a comprehensive ranking although I’m not beholden to it if there’s valid reasons why it might be biased or missing something in a certain case. I’m also open to looking at other data if people have valid arguments for it. This PIPM sounds intriguing for instance. Was just trying to find out more about it now.

With Kyrie though, you really don’t need any kind of fancy regression to see his limited impact. 2 of the last 3 seasons, he’s missed 20+ games and his team’s had the same record with or without him within a game. His raw on/off is generally around +3 and his playoff on/off is around +1. It just seems intuitively obvious that he’s not a very impactful player even if RPM didn’t exist.

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

I generally value wing and point guard defense more than a lot of people do. That’s why I’m high on Oladipo, CP3, and Lowry, and low on Kyrie, Derozan, and Lou Williams. If anything, I think that’s the lesson from these advanced stats more than where they rank individual players is that generally elite defenders are more valuable than most people think and defensive liabilities are less valuable.

Is Kyrie really a liability on the big stage, the playoffs?

[iggymcfrack]

Yep, that's a decent argument, sure. I disagree strongly that Kyrie's ranking in this should be somewhere in the 30s, as you've claimed previously. He excels in several stats and skills that are crucial in today's game, and has shown that he can perform at the absolute highest level. 27ppg in the finals against a team some were calling the greatest of all time.

I can definitely understand many arguments for Kyrie in the 15 to 20 range. As I said before, what amuses me are posters who just cant seem to fathom any argument for Kyrie as a top 15 player. He has top 15 level numbers in volume amd efficiency traditional stats as well as advanced offensive stats and some overall advanced stats like PIPM amd PIE. His weakness on defense is no doubt a big mark against him.

I generally value wing and point guard defense more than a lot of people do. That’s why I’m high on Oladipo, CP3, and Lowry, and low on Kyrie, Derozan, and Lou Williams. If anything, I think that’s the lesson from these advanced stats more than where they rank individual players is that generally elite defenders are more valuable than most people think and defensive liabilities are less valuable.

Is Kyrie really a liability on the big stage, the playoffs?

On the big stage, the playoffs, his teams are 0.7 points better per 48 minutes with him on the floor vs. on the bench. So yes, I’d say his defense must be a liability on the big stage to counteract the positive effects of his offense so much. And that was before teams started ruthlessly attacking the other teams worst defender in isolation every play. I have no faith in Kyrie’s playoff abilities at all right now. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 13.5 points better per 48 with Dray on the court in postseason.