RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#16 2018-19

[illuminati666]

For 2017-2018 Regular Season:

Net Offensive Rating: Kyrie 118, Draymond 106
Net Defensive Rating: Kyrie 106, Draymond 105

VORP: Kyrie 4, Draymond 3
OBPM: Kyrie 6.9 (5th overall), Draymond 0.4
DBPM: Kyrie -0.7, Draymond 2.7
BPM: Kyrie 6.2 (8th overall), Draymond 3.2

WS: Kyrie 8.9, Draymond 6.1
WS/48: Kyrie .222 (8th overall), Draymond .127

TOV%: Kyrie 10.4%, Green 22.5%

I'm told this doesn't qualify as evidence anymore, but here you go all the same.

Postseason career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +10.9
Cavs with Kyrie: +8.4

Warriors w/o Dray: -2.6
Cavs w/o Kyrie: +7.7

Dray on/off: +13.5
Kyrie on/off: +0.7


Regular season career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +12.1
Cavs/Celtics with Kyrie: +1.7

Warriors w/o Dray: +1.3
Cavs/Celtics w/o Kyrie: -1.5

Dray on/off: +10.8
Kyrie on/off: +3.5

Take a look at Tai's numbers Iggy. Plus/Minus stats could be SO misleading, it depends on how the team is built and structured around a player. Cavs/Celtics did/do not have systems that are heavily reliant on Kyrie's presence as the Warriors do for Draymond, but that definitely does not mean Draymond is the better player. If we looked at plus/minus; Covington is a better player than LeBron! Plus/minus and some advanced stats are useful for comparing role players but not comparing star players, there they could be misleading.

[XxIronChainzxX]

People actually think it's insulting that Kyrie is being ranked behind Oladipo, Lillard and Gobert? I get the arguments for him against them, and he certainly has a few, but he's not good enough where there should be any indignation.

I can understand thinking Dipo and Gobert are better than Kyrie. Those are hard calls for me too. I just don't get Lillard.

[BlueHeat]

The hate for KI on here is insane. KI is not the 16th best player in the league, he's easily top 15. Also, how does he lose a TIE for 14 and then get BEAT FOR 15? It makes 0 sense.

[ITYSL]

The entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs.

Not true. This past season he was top 10 in PPG, PER, WS/48 and BPM, among other metrics.

I'm not saying this isn't within the range for him, but what's the argument for him over a similar players like Lillard? Lillard shines in all those metrics, the argument for Kyrie was his playoffs contributions.

But if the same argument is used here, Draymond is a proven playoff performer as well as being the best or second best defender in the league. If Draymond is picked here, I'm picking Kyrie next.

You said the "entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs." You were wrong.

[GQ Hot Dog]

Not true. This past season he was top 10 in PPG, PER, WS/48 and BPM, among other metrics.

I'm not saying this isn't within the range for him, but what's the argument for him over a similar players like Lillard? Lillard shines in all those metrics, the argument for Kyrie was his playoffs contributions.

But if the same argument is used here, Draymond is a proven playoff performer as well as being the best or second best defender in the league. If Draymond is picked here, I'm picking Kyrie next.

You said the "entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs." You were wrong.

You isolate a single line out of a post and then go and contradict it out of context? You're a clown.

The argument was in relation to Lillard, Gobert and Oladipo. All things being equal, the argument for Irving over those three is his ability to score during the playoffs. Context.

Personal attacks get strikes.

[HoopsterJones]

I'm not saying this isn't within the range for him, but what's the argument for him over a similar players like Lillard? Lillard shines in all those metrics, the argument for Kyrie was his playoffs contributions.

But if the same argument is used here, Draymond is a proven playoff performer as well as being the best or second best defender in the league. If Draymond is picked here, I'm picking Kyrie next.

You said the "entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs." You were wrong.

You isolate a single line out of a post and then go and contradict it out of context? You're a clown.

The argument was in relation to Lillard, Gobert and Oladipo. All things being equal, the argument for Irving over those three are his ability to score during the playoffs. Context.

Agreed. Now this is cherry picking.

[yoyoboy]

Kyrie did something nobody in the current league can do in 2016. Granted he had an injury this year but hes still that great. People act like it was just lebron in that finals but Kyrie was just as important offensively if not more. Guys like oladipo who literally had one stellar year, lillard who dont get me started with his playoff performances, and gobert who is virtually unplayable against top notch team unless its OKC (if you count them as one) is overrated.

Kyrie was more important on offense to the Cavs in the Finals despite scoring fewer points on the same efficiency, posting less than half the number of assists, bearing much less of a creation responsibility, and not drawing the help defense to the same degree that LeBron does in order to open up shots? His style of play may be prettier to the eyes but it’s ridiculous to suggest he was more effective on offense. Kyrie just has a cult following spitting all kinds of hyperbole in these threads which makes it difficult to take anything seriously. A lot of the support for him essentially boils down to evidence-less narratives.

For 2017-2018 Regular Season:

Net Offensive Rating: Kyrie 118, Draymond 106
Net Defensive Rating: Kyrie 106, Draymond 105

VORP: Kyrie 4, Draymond 3
OBPM: Kyrie 6.9 (5th overall), Draymond 0.4
DBPM: Kyrie -0.7, Draymond 2.7
BPM: Kyrie 6.2 (8th overall), Draymond 3.2

WS: Kyrie 8.9, Draymond 6.1
WS/48: Kyrie .222 (8th overall), Draymond .127

TOV%: Kyrie 10.4%, Green 22.5%

I'm told this doesn't qualify as "evidence" anymore, but here you go all the same.

Because it's all based off of the box score, which is a limited means to capture a player's performance and impact.

ORTG, DRTG, and WS/48 are terribly outdated stats that fail to accurately assign value from the team level to the individual. They tend to be biased towards offensive players and generally do a poor job of assessing defense. And listing WS along with WS/48 is just repeating the same thing twice, as all it's doing is making the rate metric a cumulative one, so it's not like it provides any new information other than how time the guys played.

I generally like BPM, but what you have to understand is that it's attempting to predict RAPM using the box score. As it was calculated by regressing various elements from the box score onto this 14-year RAPM sample from 2001-2014:

https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/authors#!/vizhome/14YearRAPM/14YearRAPM

...so if you're so against RAPM and find it worthless and made for "stat geeks who don't watch the games" (something many have repeated in these threads), then you can't be propping up Kyrie with the metric that's a pseudo-RAPM simply because it happens to favor him, while the real RAPM variants aren't as kind, with the reason being for that that Kyrie's play-by-play lineup data through the years have not suggested the star impact that many people believe him to be having. Now, does that mean we completely ignore the box score? Of course not. The box score is still super valuable in terms of figuring out what roles guys are playing, how much responsibility they have in the offense/defense, and double-checking if the impact numbers are suffering from some collinearity issues without a great sample size. Which is why in spite of Kyrie ranking 45th in RPM and way lower in RAPM (because it doesn't use a box score prior) you don't see anyone here arguing that Kyrie's not a top 45 player, do you? Because you should take all the tools into account when evaluating play and that's what I do my best to do.

So when there’s a clear disconnect between a player’s BPM and RAPM values we have to ask why and conduct some analysis of our own to see what elements of the box score could be overvaluing a player’s contributions (for instance, Westbrook posting a DBPM of 4.7 a couple years ago because he was pulling down so many rebounds despite his DRAPM always hovering around neutral, which suggests to us that his rebounding doesn’t provide as much much lift to the defense as the model projects). Because the box score includes only a limited amount of the number of possessions a player is involved in, so most of the off the ball tendencies (screens, off ball movement, etc) and defense not involving rebounds, steals, blocks, and turnovers aren’t accurately captured.

[Effigy]

In the last thread I explained why numbers are distorting and why playoffs should be taken way more into account and showed why Kyrie is clearly the better player. Don't have the energy to do that again, if you're curious about my reasoning, check that. If not, agree to disagree.

The problem is, we have never seen Kyrie in the playoffs without Lebron. That should be taken into account too. Nobody ever designed their game plan into shutting down Kyrie in the playoffs. Lillard is always the focus of his opponents.

Do defenses only gameplan against one player? GS put their best perimeter defender on Kyrie ever possession. I don't get the idea that defenses didn't gameplan against Kyrie. They play 2 very different positions. Kyrie is going to get the best guard defender on him while LeBron is going to get the best F defender on him. Kawhi might be the only guy that could guard both. I'm sure teams gameplanned to stop both.

You know Lebron isn't a perimeter player, right? So why would you expect GS to put a perimeter defender on him?

You can gameplan for as many players as you want, but if you only think you have to worry about one guy, that guy is going to see the bulk of the double and triple teams. How many times was Kyrie double or triple teamed in those series? Basically never, because you always had to worry about Lebron. Planning to defend Kyrie while also knowing Lebron is there is not even close to the same as gameplanning for Kyrie win no Lebron, and it's disingenuous to assert otherwise,

[Effigy]

The hate for KI on here is insane. KI is not the 16th best player in the league, he's easily top 15. Also, how does he lose a TIE for 14 and then get BEAT FOR 15? It makes 0 sense.

You are quibbling over one spot here. You are saying he should be top 15, he will probably wind up 16th. That's basically the same, I wouldn't sweat it.

As for how he could lose a tiebreaker for 14 and not win 15, well that's easy.
1) all those Gobert votes had to go somewhere else. It appears mostly they went to Lillard
2) Lillard wasn't starting from 0. 16 people liked him more than both players, so He didn't need all the Gobert votes to go to him, but most clearly did
3) the same people don't vote every day. I hadn't voted in a week, and I did vote in at poll and I voted for Dame.

I agree that Kyrie (and Dame) should be higher. Oldaipo in particular looks crazy to me to be that high after one good year, but whatever. This is just for fun, I wouldn't sweat it.

[rcc8884]

For 2017-2018 Regular Season:

Net Offensive Rating: Kyrie 118, Draymond 106
Net Defensive Rating: Kyrie 106, Draymond 105

VORP: Kyrie 4, Draymond 3
OBPM: Kyrie 6.9 (5th overall), Draymond 0.4
DBPM: Kyrie -0.7, Draymond 2.7
BPM: Kyrie 6.2 (8th overall), Draymond 3.2

WS: Kyrie 8.9, Draymond 6.1
WS/48: Kyrie .222 (8th overall), Draymond .127

TOV%: Kyrie 10.4%, Green 22.5%

I'm told this doesn't qualify as evidence anymore, but here you go all the same.

Postseason career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +10.9
Cavs with Kyrie: +8.4

Warriors w/o Dray: -2.6
Cavs w/o Kyrie: +7.7

Dray on/off: +13.5
Kyrie on/off: +0.7


Regular season career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +12.1
Cavs/Celtics with Kyrie: +1.7

Warriors w/o Dray: +1.3
Cavs/Celtics w/o Kyrie: -1.5

Dray on/off: +10.8
Kyrie on/off: +3.5

Take a look at Tai's numbers Iggy. Plus/Minus stats could be SO misleading, it depends on how the team is built and structured around a player. Cavs/Celtics did/do not have systems that are heavily reliant on Kyrie's presence as the Warriors do for Draymond, but that definitely does not mean Draymond is the better player. If we looked at plus/minus; Covington is a better player than LeBron! Plus/minus and some advanced stats are useful for comparing role players but not comparing star players, there they could be misleading.

I said that earlier how +/- for Kyrie is hard to use as he has had Lebron with him or a stacked Celtics team around him

[ITYSL]

Anyway, for those on the board:

Scoring volume (PTS/xPoss): Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, Towns, George, Thompson, Wall, Lowry, Simmons, Green
Scoring efficiency (TS%): Towns, Irving, Thompson, Lowry, Cousins, George, Simmons, Green, DeRozan, Wall

Rebounding volume (TRB/xPoss): Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, Lowry, George, Irving, DeRozan, Thompson, Wall
Rebounding efficiency (TRB%): Towns, Cousins, Green, Simmons, Lowry, George, DeRozan, Irving, Thompson, Wall

Assists volume (AST/xPoss): Wall, Simmons, Green, Lowry, Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns
Assists efficiency (AST%): Wall, Simmons, Lowry, Irving, Green, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns

Turnover volume (TOV/xPoss): Thompson, Towns, DeRozan, Lowry, Irving, George, Green, Simmons, Wall, Cousins
Turnover efficiency (TOV%): Thompson, DeRozan, Irving, Towns, George, Lowry, Wall, Cousins, Simmons, Green

NetRtg: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Simmons, George, DeRozan, Green, Cousins, Thompson, Wall

PER: Irving, Towns, Cousins, DeRozan, Simmons, Lowry, Wall, George, Green, Thompson

WS/48: Towns, Irving, Lowry, DeRozan, Simmons, George, Cousins, Green, Thompson, Wall

BPM: Irving, Lowry, Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, George, DeRozan, Wall, Thompson

RAPM: Towns, Lowry, Simmons, Thompson, DeRozan, Green, Wall, Irving, Cousins, George

PIPM: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Green, George, Simmons, Thompson, Cousins, Wall, DeRozan

[ITYSL]

I'm not saying this isn't within the range for him, but what's the argument for him over a similar players like Lillard? Lillard shines in all those metrics, the argument for Kyrie was his playoffs contributions.

But if the same argument is used here, Draymond is a proven playoff performer as well as being the best or second best defender in the league. If Draymond is picked here, I'm picking Kyrie next.

You said the "entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs." You were wrong.

You isolate a single line out of a post and then go and contradict it out of context? You're a clown.

The argument was in relation to Lillard, Gobert and Oladipo. All things being equal, the argument for Irving over those three is his ability to score during the playoffs. Context.

Personal attack. Not out of context. You said what you said, and I showed that you were incorrect. Cheers.

[Tai]

For 2017-2018 Regular Season:

Net Offensive Rating: Kyrie 118, Draymond 106
Net Defensive Rating: Kyrie 106, Draymond 105

VORP: Kyrie 4, Draymond 3
OBPM: Kyrie 6.9 (5th overall), Draymond 0.4
DBPM: Kyrie -0.7, Draymond 2.7
BPM: Kyrie 6.2 (8th overall), Draymond 3.2

WS: Kyrie 8.9, Draymond 6.1
WS/48: Kyrie .222 (8th overall), Draymond .127

TOV%: Kyrie 10.4%, Green 22.5%

I'm told this doesn't qualify as evidence anymore, but here you go all the same.

Postseason career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +10.9
Cavs with Kyrie: +8.4

Warriors w/o Dray: -2.6
Cavs w/o Kyrie: +7.7

Dray on/off: +13.5
Kyrie on/off: +0.7


Regular season career on/off
Warriors with Dray: +12.1
Cavs/Celtics with Kyrie: +1.7

Warriors w/o Dray: +1.3
Cavs/Celtics w/o Kyrie: -1.5

Dray on/off: +10.8
Kyrie on/off: +3.5

Take a look at Tai's numbers Iggy. Plus/Minus stats could be SO misleading, it depends on how the team is built and structured around a player. Cavs/Celtics did/do not have systems that are heavily reliant on Kyrie's presence as the Warriors do for Draymond, but that definitely does not mean Draymond is the better player. If we looked at plus/minus; Covington is a better player than LeBron! Plus/minus and some advanced stats are useful for comparing role players but not comparing star players, there they could be misleading.

I said that earlier how +/- for Kyrie is hard to use as he has had Lebron with him or a stacked Celtics team around him

Stacked by who's standards? Cause they did well without him in the playoffs? A team with Kyrie and Hayward decimates those Cavs, and the Raptors (and possibly the Sixers) are bound to be better than those Cavs next season.

[Asif16]

Celtics fans coming in droves for kyrie. No bias here at all smh

A good amount of posters arguing for Kyrie aren’t even Celtic fans. Do you ever stop being salty with anything Boston related?

Lol how am I salty? Im talking about the poll and how Celtics fans coming in droves to just vote Irving for the sake of voting him, without reasoning. Not to mention, the people who are actually posting about Irving, really isn't giving any convincing data or reasoning to back it up.

I've barely commented in this thread and oh and by the way...this thread isnt "Boston Related"....its for everyone. It's a "Top 25" list. The world doesnt revolve around the Celtics

[Sixerscan]

The entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs.

Not true. This past season he was top 10 in PPG, PER, WS/48 and BPM, among other metrics.

I'm not saying this isn't within the range for him, but what's the argument for him over a similar players like Lillard? Lillard shines in all those metrics, the argument for Kyrie was his playoffs contributions.

But if the same argument is used here, Draymond is a proven playoff performer as well as being the best or second best defender in the league. If Draymond is picked here, I'm picking Kyrie next.

Lillard's year also wasn't prematurely ended by a recurring knee injury.

Can't perform in the playoffs if you're in a suit.

[Asif16]

Anyway, for those on the board:

Scoring volume (PTS/xPoss): Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, Towns, George, Thompson, Wall, Lowry, Simmons, Green
Scoring efficiency (TS%): Towns, Irving, Thompson, Lowry, Cousins, George, Simmons, Green, DeRozan, Wall

Rebounding volume (TRB/xPoss): Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, Lowry, George, Irving, DeRozan, Thompson, Wall
Rebounding efficiency (TRB%): Towns, Cousins, Green, Simmons, Lowry, George, DeRozan, Irving, Thompson, Wall

Assists volume (AST/xPoss): Wall, Simmons, Green, Lowry, Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns
Assists efficiency (AST%): Wall, Simmons, Lowry, Irving, Green, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns

Turnover volume (TOV/xPoss): Thompson, Towns, DeRozan, Lowry, Irving, George, Green, Simmons, Wall, Cousins
Turnover efficiency (TOV%): Thompson, DeRozan, Irving, Towns, George, Lowry, Wall, Cousins, Simmons, Green

NetRtg: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Simmons, George, DeRozan, Green, Cousins, Thompson, Wall

PER: Irving, Towns, Cousins, DeRozan, Simmons, Lowry, Wall, George, Green, Thompson

WS/48: Towns, Irving, Lowry, DeRozan, Simmons, George, Cousins, Green, Thompson, Wall

BPM: Irving, Lowry, Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, George, DeRozan, Wall, Thompson

RAPM: Towns, Lowry, Simmons, Thompson, DeRozan, Green, Wall, Irving, Cousins, George

PIPM: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Green, George, Simmons, Thompson, Cousins, Wall, DeRozan

This just shows how overlooked and underrated Kyle Lowry is.

Im not saying he should be leading the polls for #16, but just talking in general

[L3GEND4RY]

Im talking about the poll and how Celtics fans coming in droves to just vote Irving for the sake of voting him, without reasoning.

Curious where the list is in terms of who’s voting for who.

?

Not to mention, the people who are actually posting about Irving, really isn't giving any convincing data or reasoning to back it up.

Some of them actually are. But you’d have to read first.

I've barely commented in this thread and oh and by the way...this thread isnt "Boston Related"....its for everyone. It's a "Top 25" list. The world doesnt revolve around the Celtics

It sure doesn’t. But it’s almost nausaeting on how difficult it is to read anything Boston-related, whether it’s the focus of the thread or the comments, and not see you trolling in it.

[ITYSL]

Anyway, for those on the board:

Scoring volume (PTS/xPoss): Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, Towns, George, Thompson, Wall, Lowry, Simmons, Green
Scoring efficiency (TS%): Towns, Irving, Thompson, Lowry, Cousins, George, Simmons, Green, DeRozan, Wall

Rebounding volume (TRB/xPoss): Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, Lowry, George, Irving, DeRozan, Thompson, Wall
Rebounding efficiency (TRB%): Towns, Cousins, Green, Simmons, Lowry, George, DeRozan, Irving, Thompson, Wall

Assists volume (AST/xPoss): Wall, Simmons, Green, Lowry, Irving, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns
Assists efficiency (AST%): Wall, Simmons, Lowry, Irving, Green, DeRozan, Cousins, George, Thompson, Towns

Turnover volume (TOV/xPoss): Thompson, Towns, DeRozan, Lowry, Irving, George, Green, Simmons, Wall, Cousins
Turnover efficiency (TOV%): Thompson, DeRozan, Irving, Towns, George, Lowry, Wall, Cousins, Simmons, Green

NetRtg: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Simmons, George, DeRozan, Green, Cousins, Thompson, Wall

PER: Irving, Towns, Cousins, DeRozan, Simmons, Lowry, Wall, George, Green, Thompson

WS/48: Towns, Irving, Lowry, DeRozan, Simmons, George, Cousins, Green, Thompson, Wall

BPM: Irving, Lowry, Towns, Cousins, Simmons, Green, George, DeRozan, Wall, Thompson

RAPM: Towns, Lowry, Simmons, Thompson, DeRozan, Green, Wall, Irving, Cousins, George

PIPM: Towns, Lowry, Irving, Green, George, Simmons, Thompson, Cousins, Wall, DeRozan

This just shows how overlooked and underrated Kyle Lowry is.

Im not saying he should be leading the polls for #16, but just talking in general

Yeah, once you get into that second tier of PGs below Curry/Harden/Paul/Westbrook, there isn't a whole lot of separation. Lillard, Irving, Lowry, arguably Walker.

[GQ Hot Dog]

You said the "entire argument for Kyrie being rated this high is that he can score efficiently in the playoffs." You were wrong.

You isolate a single line out of a post and then go and contradict it out of context? You're a clown.

The argument was in relation to Lillard, Gobert and Oladipo. All things being equal, the argument for Irving over those three is his ability to score during the playoffs. Context.

Personal attack. Not out of context. You said what you said, and I showed that you were incorrect. Cheers.

Like the gentleman said, you cherry picked one line out of a particular discussion to argue with. You didn't show I was incorrect because the statement is in the context of comparing him to those players. Obviously, the ENTIRE argument is based on all the factors which is why he's in the conversation.

Edit: sorry if you took offense

[ITYSL]

You isolate a single line out of a post and then go and contradict it out of context? You're a clown.

The argument was in relation to Lillard, Gobert and Oladipo. All things being equal, the argument for Irving over those three is his ability to score during the playoffs. Context.

Personal attack. Not out of context. You said what you said, and I showed that you were incorrect. Cheers.

Like the gentleman said, you cherry picked one line out of a particular discussion to argue with. You didn't show I was incorrect because the statement is in the context of comparing him to those players. Obviously, the ENTIRE argument is based on all the factors which is why he's in the conversation.

Edit: sorry if you took offense

I picked no cherries. I don't even like cherries. And you hurt my feelings

JK, all good brother. I looked back and you're right. Didn't realize you were still talking about players that have already been picked.