Satoransky or Oubre

[penbeast0]

Which do you think will be the better player (if we keep them)? Why?

[CobraCommander]

Which do you think will be the better player (if we keep them)? Why?

One is 22 and the other will be 27 when the season starts. One has played meaningful NBA basketball in the playoffs and legitimately contributed... the other hasn’t. One wore a supreme leg thingy....

which means he is a hypebeast...which sways everything.... Kelly a better playa. .Sato a better player.

[Kanyewest]

Oubre was pretty bad in the playoffs, maybe he puts in some work and gets better this offseason.

[DCZards]

I'm hoping Kelly is working hard on his game, especially his handle, so that we can see more of this next season.

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

Which do you think will be the better player (if we keep them)? Why?

It's an interesting question, above all because they are such utterly different players & at such different points in their careers.

But, the way you frame the question -- "if we keep them" -- makes me wonder if maybe you mean to ask some related but slightly different question....

Sato is 27. He isn't going to improve as a basketball player. He was already an extremely productive player last season. I suppose we can hope that another season of adjusting to the NBA game will make him even more productive. But, basically, we already know that he's a very good player -- & what kind of player he is.

Kelly is a totally different story. He's still only 22, & neither we nor he have any idea what kind of NBA player he'll be. Off the first 1/3 of last season (his 3d in the NBA) we might have projected him to become an extremely high level NBA player -- certainly a starter, maybe an all star. Then came the rest of the season, off of which we might instead project him as a player sort of like Gerald Green -- meh skills supplemented by off the charts athleticism. I.e. a marginal rotation player.

Does all this make sense? I can't imagine a different way to think about these two guys....

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Oubransky

[dckingsfan]

Which do you think will be the better player (if we keep them)? Why?

This WILL end up being a huge question and might be the determining factor of the season.

How much of a jump do each take (I might disagree with PIF that Sato is capped)? In the off-season does it have to be either/or? Do we need to package one with Mahimni to get under the tax?

Your thoughts? You clearly have been thinking about this...

[daSwami]

Oubre because ...

[FAH1223]

Fuse them together

[nuposse04]

Oubre is a mediocre basketball player until he isn't. Sato is a good player who could probably start on some teams. I'd be surprised if Oubre made a leap but here's hoping. Unfortunately the entire organization for some reason seems to think little of sato and Brooks' asinine self can't seem to utilize em.

Better hope Drew Hanlen worked his magic juju on Oubre this offseason.

[penbeast0]

Which do you think will be the better player (if we keep them)? Why?

This WILL end up being a huge question and might be the determining factor of the season.

How much of a jump do each take (I might disagree with PIF that Sato is capped)? In the off-season does it have to be either/or? Do we need to package one with Mahimni to get under the tax?

Your thoughts? You clearly have been thinking about this...

I think, with both coming to the end of their rookie contracts about when Wall's supermax kicks in, it's going to be a nasty financial crunch for the team. I think Oubre has more value league wide because of his athleticism and someone will give him an offer it will be tough to match. I think Sato is better for us now and played like a rotation player from what I could tell last year, but as many have said, the team has not showed confidence in him so he could choose to leave as well.

If we could package one of them with Mahinmi and rid ourselves of that contract without taking back salary, I think we do it despite their potential because we can't afford the repeater tax. I think if that was going to happen it would.

I don't really have strong hopes going forward as I have little confidence in the organization to make hard decisions based on the team history since Ted bought the team. As those of you know who read the T&T board, I suggested dealing Beal for Hield and Shumpert to give us some financial breathing room. I did that because I think Hield, Satoransky, and Oubre between them could hold down the 2 spot and Porter and Howard (if healthy) could pick up their scoring enough to cover the difference. My fear is that we will lose both for little or nothing and never be a legit contender while every year having no bench and tax issues.

But they, and maybe our 1st this year who I have to see play some first, are the only place I can see improvement coming on the team that will allow us positive choices.

[nate33]

Sato is a more polished player and a much better decision maker overall. However, Oubre is bigger, and that's really important in a defensive system that switches everything. You don't worry much if Oubre gets switched onto a 4 or even a 5, he can hold his own, challenge the shot and get the board. Sato gets overpowered by bigger players. I love Sato, but I think, on balance, most teams would be more comfortable with Oubre on the floor instead of Sato.

Looking forward, it's clear that Oubre has more upside. He's bigger, younger, and more athletic.

[Ruzious]

Fuse them together

It's easy to see the difference in wingspan - where Oubre has a 7'2 to 6'7 advantage. Problem is in Oubre's lack of ability to stop even the shorter forwards from shooting over him. Short-armed Marcus Morris had no trouble shooting right over him. So, for whatever reason, Oubre's standing reach is not effective. Oubre's still at the stage where people are projecting him better than he is now, so he's likely going to get paid based on potential as much as production - while Sato won't. Personally, I prefer the better player - especially when he's going to be paid less. I'll take Sato.

[NatP4]

Oubre isn’t even a good player. He’s an awful defender. Satoransky is a quality player already and probably the 3rd or 4th best player on the team and a starter on most other teams. His only problem is that Scott Brooks is the absolute dumbest coach in the NBA and would rather play some washed up scrub in the CBA over him.

You keep both though, the salary cap is rising, Oubre still has great potential as a 3&D wing that can rebound and finish above the rim. Start Oubre over Morris like they should, and you have a completely different player.

[Ruzious]

And how quickly Troy Brown develops could factor into the equation. He's a versatile type player, but I think he fits mainly as a 3 - in Oubre's role. That would make it easier to take trading Oubre. We really do NOT want Rivers playing any PG, so it's more important to keep Sato - and hopefully Brooks sees Sato should be the prime backup at PG - even with his problems against presure defense. Sato and Rivers together might make a solid bench combo, because they have different strengths and weaknesses.

[penbeast0]

Sato is a more polished player and a much better decision maker overall. However, Oubre is bigger, and that's really important in a defensive system that switches everything. You don't worry much if Oubre gets switched onto a 4 or even a 5, he can hold his own, challenge the shot and get the board. Sato gets overpowered by bigger players. I love Sato, but I think, on balance, most teams would be more comfortable with Oubre on the floor instead of Sato.

Looking forward, it's clear that Oubre has more upside. He's bigger, younger, and more athletic.

He is, IF you think he's a player with a good learning curve. Otherwise he's more in the Nick Young, Gerald Green area (with less shooting skills).

[pcbothwel]

Sato is a more polished player and a much better decision maker overall. However, Oubre is bigger, and that's really important in a defensive system that switches everything. You don't worry much if Oubre gets switched onto a 4 or even a 5, he can hold his own, challenge the shot and get the board. Sato gets overpowered by bigger players. I love Sato, but I think, on balance, most teams would be more comfortable with Oubre on the floor instead of Sato.

Looking forward, it's clear that Oubre has more upside. He's bigger, younger, and more athletic.

He is, IF you think he's a player with a good learning curve. Otherwise he's more in the Nick Young, Gerald Green area (with less shooting skills).

You are WAY undervaluing Oubre. In Greens 11 years in the NBA, he's only had 1 year (Age 28) that was better than Oubre last year at 22.
His IQ is quite low like both of them, but his work ethic/intensity is much higher as well as his defensive tools/instincts.
Green and Oubre have different tools... and I like Oubres more. By alot.

Forget the measurements/athleticism. Its the other markers that have me excited. I.E.
1) He draws fouls - Shows strong combo of athleticism, skill, savvy, and relentlessness to achieve
2) He makes his foul shots and showing vastly improved 3 (though inconsistent) - shows good shooting foundation for continued improvement... also shows work ethic
3) Rebounds and defends on the ball with instinct and tenacity - This allows for positional versatility of playing/ guarding 2-4.
4) Year over year improvement in production & efficiency - Similar to Otto and less like Wall / Beal

I look at the list of players whose 3Ptr and FTr were as high as Oubre over the last 10 years. I get 21 names:
James Harden
Kyle Lowry
Stephen Curry
Wesley Matthews
Kevin Martin
Jae Crowder
Lou Williams
J.J. Redick
Martell Webster
D.J. Augustin
Richard Jefferson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Nikola Mirotic
Danilo Gallinari
Paul Pierce
Mario Chalmers
Jodie Meeks
Chris Duhon
Devin Harris
DeMarre Carroll
Kelly Oubre

It should also be noted most all these guys were in their late 20's-30's when they did this. Again, i like his foundation.

[Ruzious]

Sato is a more polished player and a much better decision maker overall. However, Oubre is bigger, and that's really important in a defensive system that switches everything. You don't worry much if Oubre gets switched onto a 4 or even a 5, he can hold his own, challenge the shot and get the board. Sato gets overpowered by bigger players. I love Sato, but I think, on balance, most teams would be more comfortable with Oubre on the floor instead of Sato.

Looking forward, it's clear that Oubre has more upside. He's bigger, younger, and more athletic.

He is, IF you think he's a player with a good learning curve. Otherwise he's more in the Nick Young, Gerald Green area (with less shooting skills).

You are WAY undervaluing Oubre. In Greens 11 years in the NBA, he's only had 1 year (Age 28) that was better than Oubre last year at 22.
His IQ is quite low like both of them, but his work ethic/intensity is much higher as well as his defensive tools/instincts.
Green and Oubre have different tools... and I like Oubres more. By alot.

Forget the measurements/athleticism. Its the other markers that have me excited. I.E.
1) He draws fouls - Shows strong combo of athleticism, skill, savvy, and relentlessness to achieve
2) He makes his foul shots and showing vastly improved 3 (though inconsistent) - shows good shooting foundation for continued improvement... also shows work ethic
3) Rebounds and defends on the ball with instinct and tenacity - This allows for positional versatility of playing/ guarding 2-4.
4) Year over year improvement in production & efficiency - Similar to Otto and less like Wall / Beal

I look at the list of players whose 3Ptr and FTr were as high as Oubre over the last 10 years. I get 21 names:
James Harden
Kyle Lowry
Stephen Curry
Wesley Matthews
Kevin Martin
Jae Crowder
Lou Williams
J.J. Redick
Martell Webster
D.J. Augustin
Richard Jefferson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Nikola Mirotic
Danilo Gallinari
Paul Pierce
Mario Chalmers
Jodie Meeks
Chris Duhon
Devin Harris
DeMarre Carroll
Kelly Oubre

It should also be noted most all these guys were in their late 20's-30's when they did this. Again, i like his foundation.

Meh. There are some very ordinary players on that list. Oubre's shooting was awful for the last couple of months of the season and when it really counted - in the playoffs.

And I haven't seen the intensity you speak of. I see occasional bursts of energy - usually when he's guarding someone 30 feet from the basket and committing a foolish foul, and I don't see much toughness when he's covering someone posting him up. The potential is definitely there, but the consistency and especially dependability hasn't been - so far. There are too many times when his head doesn't seem to be in the game.

[dckingsfan]

Sato is a more polished player and a much better decision maker overall. However, Oubre is bigger, and that's really important in a defensive system that switches everything. You don't worry much if Oubre gets switched onto a 4 or even a 5, he can hold his own, challenge the shot and get the board. Sato gets overpowered by bigger players. I love Sato, but I think, on balance, most teams would be more comfortable with Oubre on the floor instead of Sato.

Looking forward, it's clear that Oubre has more upside. He's bigger, younger, and more athletic.

He is, IF you think he's a player with a good learning curve. Otherwise he's more in the Nick Young, Gerald Green area (with less shooting skills).

You are WAY undervaluing Oubre. In Greens 11 years in the NBA, he's only had 1 year (Age 28) that was better than Oubre last year at 22.
His IQ is quite low like both of them, but his work ethic/intensity is much higher as well as his defensive tools/instincts.
Green and Oubre have different tools... and I like Oubres more. By alot.

Forget the measurements/athleticism. Its the other markers that have me excited. I.E.
1) He draws fouls - Shows strong combo of athleticism, skill, savvy, and relentlessness to achieve
2) He makes his foul shots and showing vastly improved 3 (though inconsistent) - shows good shooting foundation for continued improvement... also shows work ethic
3) Rebounds and defends on the ball with instinct and tenacity - This allows for positional versatility of playing/ guarding 2-4.
4) Year over year improvement in production & efficiency - Similar to Otto and less like Wall / Beal

I look at the list of players whose 3Ptr and FTr were as high as Oubre over the last 10 years. I get 21 names:
James Harden
Kyle Lowry
Stephen Curry
Wesley Matthews
Kevin Martin
Jae Crowder
Lou Williams
J.J. Redick
Martell Webster
D.J. Augustin
Richard Jefferson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Nikola Mirotic
Danilo Gallinari
Paul Pierce
Mario Chalmers
Jodie Meeks
Chris Duhon
Devin Harris
DeMarre Carroll
Kelly Oubre

It should also be noted most all these guys were in their late 20's-30's when they did this. Again, i like his foundation.

Progression with prediction...

Code: Select all

Season   Age     MP    TS%   AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   WS/48   VORP
2015-16   20    671   0.507   2.8   12.8   17.4   18.4   1.6    0.8    0.031   -0.7
2016-17   21   1605   0.516   4.0    9.3   14.6   14.0   1.8    0.9    0.061   -0.1
2017-18   22   2231   0.534   6.4    9.2   19.4   15.4   1.8    1.4    0.080    0.4
2018-19   23   2200   0.546   8.0    9.1   19.7   16.8   1.9    1.6    0.106    0.9


[pcbothwel]

And I haven't seen the intensity you speak of. I see occasional bursts of energy - usually when he's guarding someone 30 feet from the basket and committing a foolish foul, and I don't see much toughness when he's covering someone posting him up. The potential is definitely there, but the consistency and especially dependability hasn't been - so far. There are too many times when his head doesn't seem to be in the game.

Ruz, He shot 34% from 3 last year, even with that terrible streak. You cant take a streak as meaning anything. He shot 233 FTA last year at an 82% rate. As I said, there is a foundation of there for a very good scorer. That is why I pointed to the FTr and 3Ptr stat. It shows a guy that lives behind the 3 point line and at the FT line... Im in.

Again, you are pointing to a 22 y/o being inconsistent..lol. Duh. Most are.
The discussion is about what we can expect to see in the next 6-8 months to help correctly appraise his value.