RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#17 2018-19

[picc]

I agree with most of your post, but I don't understand how you can value impact like that but also vote for Derozan here.

You only live once man.

[Luigi]

I hope they let Dray go, but as noted they've been better with him on court with nobody than anything, which should refute the idea he's a system guy. I was adamant that was the case years ago but having seen the evidence at some point after about 2016 I couldn't argue it.

I'd be interested to see the conditions of the data. Second units, Durant, slumps, etc...

[bondom34]

I hope they let Dray go, but as noted they've been better with him on court with nobody than anything, which should refute the idea he's a system guy. I was adamant that was the case years ago but having seen the evidence at some point after about 2016 I couldn't argue it.

I'd be interested to see the conditions of the data. Second units, Durant, slumps, etc...

The ones I noted were 2016, pre Durant. But nbawowy.com would work too. This year it's tougher because they've got 4 all stars so there aren't any lineups without any. But the Green lineups weren't strong on paper. Klay's skillset is just much easier to find.

[ElectricMayhem]

I edited this on to my original post, but I think it is worth adding: I had previously voted to add Blake Griffin to the list and I was thinking about changing to Horford this round. However, a look at the stats has reminded me how much Andre Drummond silently gets his business done. He just turned 25 and is still improving (look at his ft% jump last year).

Of the five bigs remaining on the pre-list (Drummond, Horford, Griffin, Capela, Adams), Drummond is:

1st in VORP
1st in BPM
1st in Win Shares
1st in Defensive Rating
1st in Rebounding
2nd in WS/48
2nd Youngest (Less than a year older than Capela)

[iggymcfrack]

Yes.

He's better than a number of players that have gone already.

I think Thompson is better than a number of players that have already gone.

Why do you think Green is better than Thompson?

Because he impacts the game on both ends on a more consistently elite level than Thompson does. And we have evidence that not only is his playmaking proficiency not a product of playing with Stephen Curry (or Durant), but that it actually improves with Curry out of the lineup.

In the '15 and '16 seasons, Green's averaged 7 assists per game in games Curry didn't play in. And that's in the regular season. In the '16 playoffs, Green was averaging 8apg in the Warriors first 7 games sans Curry, before Steph's return in game 4 of round 2.

Green had less than 7 assists in only three games through the first 9 games of the '16 playoffs. Those three games were the ones Curry made appearances in.

Green's averages in the seven games Steph sat out completely were 18/8/11 on 53% TS.

Add DPOY-caliber defense (that translates to the perimeter as well as the paint, unlike Rudy Gobert) to that, and you have a high-level all-star, if not flat out superstar, producing for your team on an all-around level Klay Thompson does not.

Green's impact stats (RPM/RAPM) also blow Thompson's away. There's more of an argument for who is more important to GS between Green and Curry than there is between Green and Klay. Draymond would add more wins to your average playoff team than quite a few of the players already selected, nevermind the guys still on the poll.

Saying that, my vote is now for Derozan.

LOL, good one! I was pretty sure you were joking but still double-checked the poll to see if anyone had voted for Derozan just in case.

[Luigi]

I hope they let Dray go, but as noted they've been better with him on court with nobody than anything, which should refute the idea he's a system guy. I was adamant that was the case years ago but having seen the evidence at some point after about 2016 I couldn't argue it.

I'd be interested to see the conditions of the data. Second units, Durant, slumps, etc...

The ones I noted were 2016, pre Durant. But nbawowy.com would work too. This year it's tougher because they've got 4 all stars so there aren't any lineups without any. But the Green lineups weren't strong on paper. Klay's skillset is just much easier to find.

I'll take a look. Maybe I'll have to admit that the guy who kicks everyone in the balls is actually that good

But where else can you find a guy who can fill it up without the ball in his hands, shooting at that high of a percentage, who also plays solid defense?

[picc]

And on a basis of more impact, I'd agree with iggy that Dray's impact is well above Durant's. And really, that's all I care about in a team sport.

Because he impacts the game on both ends on a more consistently elite level than Thompson does. And we have evidence that not only is his playmaking proficiency not a product of playing with Stephen Curry (or Durant), but that it actually improves with Curry out of the lineup.

I can appreciate the impact arguments. My main concern was how much can be attributed to Green himself, and how much depends on the situation he finds himself in on the Warriors greatest of all time ball sharing offense. He's a large part of that. But I think he's getting all of the credit for it rather than his due share.

I've been making a transportability argument to show Thompson's value. And I'd bet that on that metric, we'd see him do better. I doubt GSW is gonna keep both after this year, so we might get a look at one of them out in the cold. I'll be watching closely if it happens.

You talk about these guys as if Klay is playing on the Bobcats. Your own arguments can easily be used against you. Why should we believe Klay would be just as effective on a team that didnt have two all-star caliber playmakers to find him in his preferred spots, and two of the greatest shooting gravity players in history to get him wide open shots?

See how that works? Why not just use what we know to make the decision?

I'm also confused as to what about all-time level defense and all-star level playmaking isn't transportable. Not to mention being the leader and motivator of the team.

[stilldropin20]

GSW system does 2 things:

1. If everyone buys in it makes them the greatest team on the planet and of all time. And the greatest teams must have the greatest players. They MUST!!

2. But full "buy-in" requires guys to move the ball and move without the ball so the stats get more distributed. which devalues the individuals relative to other superstar "stats hounds" that play on other teams that have more of an iso ball systems (which is an inferior system that wins less games.

now that the iso-ball stat hound kevin durant joined GSW he is not values as a winner...and because Kerr and Dray often call isoball plays for durant to end games when the GSW break their system. Durant gets to stat hound. But the only reason he is not doubled and the ball taken out of his hands is because the 2 best shooters to ever play the game are spacing the court for him and 2 other 2 other really good scorers/slashers are all setting picks and moving off ball for each other.

[bondom34]

I'd be interested to see the conditions of the data. Second units, Durant, slumps, etc...

The ones I noted were 2016, pre Durant. But nbawowy.com would work too. This year it's tougher because they've got 4 all stars so there aren't any lineups without any. But the Green lineups weren't strong on paper. Klay's skillset is just much easier to find.

I'll take a look. Maybe I'll have to admit that the guy who kicks everyone in the balls is actually that good

But where else can you find a guy who can fill it up without the ball in his hands, shooting at that high of a percentage, who also plays solid defense?

Danny Green is a better defender and worse offensive player. A few years ago he'd fit that pretty well. And he's nowhere near top 20. Tyreke was a 20 ppg guy with solid defense (Klay's not that great a defender). Middleton's at least as good defensively and scored slightly more.

So Middleton at least, and he's not a top 20 player.

[Luigi]

You talk about these guys as if Klay is playing on the Bobcats. Your own arguments can easily be used against you. Why should we believe Klay would be just as effective on a team that didnt have two all-star caliber playmakers to find him in his preferred spots, and two of the greatest shooting gravity players in history to get him wide open shots?

See how that works? Why not just use what we know to make the decision?

I'm also confused as to what about all-time level defense and all-star level playmaking isn't transportable. Not to mention being the leader and motivator of the team.

No, you've misunderstood. I am talking about Thompson as if he could play for any team in the NBA. In fact, I think you've missed my point entirely. Some skills are less integrated into a team than others. Shooting, for example, is less dependent on other players and offenses. Playmaking, especially without an elite handle, is harder to transport to other situations. Not every team plays Warriors ball, but any team can tell Thompson to stand behind the 3 point line. So I think Klay is more transportable than Green.

[Luigi]

The ones I noted were 2016, pre Durant. But nbawowy.com would work too. This year it's tougher because they've got 4 all stars so there aren't any lineups without any. But the Green lineups weren't strong on paper. Klay's skillset is just much easier to find.

I'll take a look. Maybe I'll have to admit that the guy who kicks everyone in the balls is actually that good

But where else can you find a guy who can fill it up without the ball in his hands, shooting at that high of a percentage, who also plays solid defense?

Danny Green is a better defender and worse offensive player. A few years ago he'd fit that pretty well. And he's nowhere near top 20. Tyreke was a 20 ppg guy with solid defense (Klay's not that great a defender). Middleton's at least as good defensively and scored slightly more.

So Middleton at least, and he's not a top 20 player.

I'm talking about being an absolutely elite shooter (not so much scorer, but Thompson's shot does scale when he gets enough shots), who doesn't need to pound the rock to score. And who plays defense. Add in the getting hot factor, too (Thompson is explosive). I think that's a pretty rare set. There are few scorers with his accuracy from range. And most comparable scorers, even if they don't lack the accuracy, need the ball in their hands or high volume to do it. Or else they dog it on defense.

Evans needs the ball to score, and can't shoot. Klay is assited on 91% of his 3s. Evan is on 60%. Younger Danny Green is closer, but I don't think he's in the same group. And we're already exiting the present to find comparisons. Middleton might be a poor man's Thompson. He lacks the percentages that Thompson brings. The difference is Middleton has the green light, while Thompson is playing behind Curry and Durant.

Guys with Thompson's skill set in today's NBA usually demand the ball. Klay can give you everything as a #2 option. I think that's extremely rare, and highly transportable.

[bondom34]

I'll take a look. Maybe I'll have to admit that the guy who kicks everyone in the balls is actually that good

But where else can you find a guy who can fill it up without the ball in his hands, shooting at that high of a percentage, who also plays solid defense?

Danny Green is a better defender and worse offensive player. A few years ago he'd fit that pretty well. And he's nowhere near top 20. Tyreke was a 20 ppg guy with solid defense (Klay's not that great a defender). Middleton's at least as good defensively and scored slightly more.

So Middleton at least, and he's not a top 20 player.

I'm talking about being an absolutely elite shooter (not so much scorer, but Thompson's shot does scale when he gets enough shots), who doesn't need to pound the rock to score. And who plays defense. Add in the getting hot factor, too (Thompson is explosive). I think that's a pretty rare set. There are few scorers with his accuracy from range. And most comparable scorers, even if they don't lack the accuracy, need the ball in their hands or high volume to do it. Or else they dog it on defense.

Evans needs the ball to score, and can't shoot. Klay is assited on 91% of his 3s. Evan is on 60%. Younger Danny Green is closer, but I don't think he's in the same group. And we're already exiting the present to find comparisons. Middleton might be a poor man's Thompson. He lacks the percentages that Thompson brings. The difference is Middleton has the green light, while Thompson is playing behind Curry and Durant.

Guys with Thompson's skill set in today's NBA usually demand the ball. Klay can give you everything as a #2 option. I think that's extremely rare, and highly transportable.

That's basically Kyle Korver with defense, a guy who can't create offense is way less valuable than one who doesn't need the ball but needs to have everything fed to him. Middleton's pretty close, he's a way better defender and scored more last year as a 2nd option at 20.1 ppg to Klay's 20.

[Luigi]

That's basically Kyle Korver with defense, a guy who can't create offense is way less valuable than one who doesn't need the ball but needs to have everything fed to him. Middleton's pretty close, he's a way better defender and scored more last year as a 2nd option at 20.1 ppg to Klay's 20.

Yes, Korver with D would be extremely valuable. The fact that Korver was able to contribute as much as he did without the defense marks the value, imo. I also think Thompson can do it with a little more volume than Korver can, but that's the range we're talking about.

Middleton is great. But like I said, he's got the green light. Thompson was looking better before Durant came. His unselfishness is one of his virtues.

[bondom34]

That's basically Kyle Korver with defense, a guy who can't create offense is way less valuable than one who doesn't need the ball but needs to have everything fed to him. Middleton's pretty close, he's a way better defender and scored more last year as a 2nd option at 20.1 ppg to Klay's 20.

Yes, Korver with D would be extremely valuable. The fact that Korver was able to contribute as much as he did without the defense marks the value, imo. I also think Thompson can do it with a little more volume than Korver can, but that's the range we're talking about.

Middleton is great. But like I said, he's got the green light. Thompson was looking better before Durant came. His unselfishness is one of his virtues.

Klay's highest scoring season was about 2 ppg more than he has now. And he's not near the defender Middleton is. His FGA/game is down 1.

Edit: Just checked, and as for explosiveness, Middleton had 5 30 + point games last year, Klay had 0.

http://bkref.com/tiny/m4T3W

[Luigi]

[Klay's highest scoring season was about 2 ppg more than he has now. And he's not near the defender Middleton is. His FGA/game is down 1.

Yes, I was working from Thompson progressing. Many of us think that Durant's arrival meant never getting to see the full versions of the splash bros. And there's still the Middleton green light point.

I think Thompson is a pretty great defender. Maybe not as good as Middleton, but I'd compare them.

That's what makes the ranking here so difficult. Are we ranking absolute value as a player? Relative value to the current team? Start a hypothetical 1 year franchise? Offensive value as a 1st option, 2nd option? Defensive value as an anchor? switch defender? I think the most natural interpretation of the ranking is about a kind of absolute value as a basketball player relative to their kind of contribution. Jimmer, for example, was a great first option college player. But he ranked so low on the 1st option list in the NBA, that his value plummeted there. Certain 2nd and 3rd and 4th option kind of guys are much more valuable, too, despite being worse 1st options than Jimmer.

But if people see the kind of contribution as having different values, things get all out of wack.

[bondom34]

[Klay's highest scoring season was about 2 ppg more than he has now. And he's not near the defender Middleton is. His FGA/game is down 1.

Yes, I was working from Thompson progressing. Many of us think that Durant's arrival meant never getting to see the full versions of the splash bros. And there's still the Middleton green light point.

I think Thompson is a pretty great defender. Maybe not as good as Middleton, but I'd compare them.

That's what makes the ranking here so difficult. Are we ranking absolute value as a player? Relative value to the current team? Start a hypothetical 1 year franchise? Offensive value as a 1st option, 2nd option? Defensive value as an anchor? switch defender? I think the most natural interpretation of the ranking is about a kind of absolute value as a basketball player relative to their kind of contribution. Jimmer, for example, was a great first option college player. But he ranked so low on the 1st option list in the NBA, that his value plummeted there. Certain 2nd and 3rd and 4th option kind of guys are much more valuable, too, despite being worse 1st options than Jimmer.

But if you're arguing hes a lesser option, when he still gets more shots than Middleton, wouldn't that contradict? And thats ignoring that Draymod's impact dwarfs either. If you'd argue Gobert top 15, Dray has near the same defensive impact with better offense.

[Luigi]

[Klay's highest scoring season was about 2 ppg more than he has now. And he's not near the defender Middleton is. His FGA/game is down 1.

Yes, I was working from Thompson progressing. Many of us think that Durant's arrival meant never getting to see the full versions of the splash bros. And there's still the Middleton green light point.

I think Thompson is a pretty great defender. Maybe not as good as Middleton, but I'd compare them.

That's what makes the ranking here so difficult. Are we ranking absolute value as a player? Relative value to the current team? Start a hypothetical 1 year franchise? Offensive value as a 1st option, 2nd option? Defensive value as an anchor? switch defender? I think the most natural interpretation of the ranking is about a kind of absolute value as a basketball player relative to their kind of contribution. Jimmer, for example, was a great first option college player. But he ranked so low on the 1st option list in the NBA, that his value plummeted there. Certain 2nd and 3rd and 4th option kind of guys are much more valuable, too, despite being worse 1st options than Jimmer.

But if you're arguing hes a lesser option, when he still gets more shots than Middleton, wouldn't that contradict? And thats ignoring that Draymod's impact dwarfs either. If you'd argue Gobert top 15, Dray has near the same defensive impact with better offense.

Yeah, maybe Middleton didn't have as much of a green light as I thought. Thompson's usage % is 23.7 last year. Middleton's was 24.6. Very close.

Thompson's was 27.6 in 2015 though. And could maybe have gone higher. But they're not as far apart as I would have guessed. Factoring in the progress Thompson would have made, and swap him for Middleton, and I'd bet Thompson's usage % would be 30ish for the Clippers last year. But hard to say. (Jimmers was like 45 or something insane in college )

[JB2]

I think this answer is obviously a healthy Cousins, but if we're factoring injury... give me Simmons.

[Luigi]

This is homeristic, but if Simmons is getting serious consideration at this point, I think Mitchell should at least be in the vote.

[bondom34]

Yes, I was working from Thompson progressing. Many of us think that Durant's arrival meant never getting to see the full versions of the splash bros. And there's still the Middleton green light point.

I think Thompson is a pretty great defender. Maybe not as good as Middleton, but I'd compare them.

That's what makes the ranking here so difficult. Are we ranking absolute value as a player? Relative value to the current team? Start a hypothetical 1 year franchise? Offensive value as a 1st option, 2nd option? Defensive value as an anchor? switch defender? I think the most natural interpretation of the ranking is about a kind of absolute value as a basketball player relative to their kind of contribution. Jimmer, for example, was a great first option college player. But he ranked so low on the 1st option list in the NBA, that his value plummeted there. Certain 2nd and 3rd and 4th option kind of guys are much more valuable, too, despite being worse 1st options than Jimmer.

But if you're arguing hes a lesser option, when he still gets more shots than Middleton, wouldn't that contradict? And thats ignoring that Draymod's impact dwarfs either. If you'd argue Gobert top 15, Dray has near the same defensive impact with better offense.

Yeah, maybe Middleton didn't have as much of a green light as I thought. Thompson's usage % is 23.7 last year. Middleton's was 24.6. Very close.

Thompson's was 27.6 in 2015 though. And could maybe have gone higher. But they're not as far apart as I would have guessed. Factoring in the progress Thompson would have made, and swap him for Middleton, and I'd bet Thompson's usage % would be 30ish for the Clippers last year. But hard to say. (Jimmers was like 45 or something insane in college )

FYI, usage includes turnovers. So having a green light isn't necessarily higher usage, just more shots. Not sure if that's what you meant though .