2018 Free Agency and Trade Discussion continued

[bigfoot]

I think the mistake implicit in this oft-repeated line of reasoning is thinking that efficient 20 PPG players grow on trees. They don't. Not in "today's NBA" or yesterday's or tomorrow's. There are several aspects of TJ's game the don't get enough credit. True, the kid isn't a facilitator. But he does get offensive rebounds and hustle points, he doesn't turn the ball over, and he gives ballhandlers an outlet for assists. He can be an integral part of a highly efficient offense if put in the right situation.

This line of reasoning exists only because TJ doesn't get any national attention, and soft-minded Suns fans let this affect their thinking. And the reason he doesn't get national attention is because he was unheralded coming out of college, and we haven't won any games. IMO, TJ is the player least responsible for this team's struggles over the last couple seasons. So it's all bull**** to me.

The latest BSOTS pod where they wanted to trade TJ+ for George Hill made me want to throw up. Whatever TJ failed to do for the Suns last season, George Hill failed to do for the King five times over. What foolishness. GTFOutta here with that noise.

Yeah I dunno about this

TJ ISN'T a useless player or that a semi-efficient 20ppg is an easy get either, that isn't the reason for the grim forward outlook. He's still young, still has potential he can tap into but after 4 seasons and after signing his extension, he *still* hasn't really addressed any facet of his weaknesses. He's increased his scoring production and amazingly kept the same level of efficiency but everywhere else he's been stagnant. That's also the other oft-repeated line which even I believed for the longest time; that he's efficient. He's not inefficient but he's not really that efficient either by today's standards either. In today's world and probably tomorrow's NBA, efficiency is no longer based on raw FG%, it's dependent on the position (of course) as well as where the efficiency is derived from. A player who shoots .45 overall and .38 from the 3 while getting to the line for an efficient 80FT% is more efficient and valuable than a player who shoots .500 from the field but doesn't shoot 3's or get the line often, especially if they are a guard or wing.

From an efficiency standpoint, his TS% is lower than that of even Booker because he doesn't shoot the 3 and last season ranked 9th among Suns players who played over 500min for the season in FT rate. The ONLY thing carrying this narrative that he's an efficient player is that he scores at a good rate from 2P%. For comparison these were his TS%'s since his rookie season

.551
.549
.539
.541
.542 - career average

Those are pretty average efficiency. To compare again, Booker TS%'s since his rookie season below. Here's a guy that shoots .45% from the 2 for his career that is more efficient than TJ who in his 4 year career has shot a least 52% from within the arc. Even now Booker is only average from an efficiency standpoint.

.535
.531
.561
.542 - career average.

I'm not trying to prove Booker > TJ because that's obvious for any basketball fan but I amm just trying to highlight what is considered 'valuable' in today's NBA and going forward with regards to efficiency.

And aside from that one season which now appear to be flukey where he averaged .400 from the 3, he's gotten worse and attempts have gone down. He hasn't shown meaningful improvement from a defensive standpoint and despite Chandler and Len playing less minutes and Big Sauce out the entire season, his rebounding rate and overall rebounding averages have gone down.

So you're right in that players that average 20/6 on ok efficiency don't grow on trees. But big C's who average 20/10 on .52FG% doesn't either. Do you know whose stats those were? Peak Vucevic. Sure they don't grow on trees but they also just aren't nearly as valuable as they once were. He's still scoring at above the Suns TS% but he's scoring at under league average efficiency. Limit it to only forwards and he doesn't fare too well there either from an efficiency standpoint.

He's not a bad player, as you mentioned he doesn't turn the ball over, he's an above average offensive rebounder at his position, he shoots near .500 from the field which has value and he's signed for to an OK contract. But he's certainly not as efficient or as valuable as you might think he is. And even if he's not the reason for a lot of our issues, he hasn't really proven to be an answer either when two of our biggest issues is defense and shooting and he addresses neither.

Really this is the argument of TJ versus JJ.

The question is are we willing to ship TJ out for a PG knowing full well that Ariza is not a long term option. Knowing we are left with two unproven players in Jackson and Bridges at the future of the SF position. Knowing that neither is really starter material for this season and possibly next or maybe never. It's maddening to minimize TJ's shooting efficiency and then turn around and say Booker and JJ are going to be so much more efficient surrounded by a legitimate big man and shooters. Can't the same thing be said for Warren?

There are a lot of negatives to JJs game that are being conveniently overlooked. There are a lot of assumptions that JJ is going to miraculously improve. The point is if we need point guard we better ship out the right player because I'm tired of seeing all these ex-Suns players make the playoffs in starting and/or bench roles for other teams.

[PhxLax]

Looking back now, at Pick #4 last yr Suns should have picked PG's Fox or Dennis Smith and we wouldn't be in this "JJ or TJ" discussion.

[PhxLax]

Really this is the argument of TJ versus JJ.

The question is are we willing to ship TJ out for a PG knowing full well that Ariza is not a long term option. Knowing we are left with two unproven players in Jackson and Bridges at the future of the SF position. Knowing that neither is really starter material for this season and possibly next or maybe never. It's maddening to minimize TJ's shooting efficiency and then turn around and say Booker and JJ are going to be so much more efficient surrounded by a legitimate big man and shooters. Can't the same thing be said for Warren?

There are a lot of negatives to JJs game that are being conveniently overlooked. There are a lot of assumptions that JJ is going to miraculously improve. The point is if we need point guard we better ship out the right player because I'm tired of seeing all these ex-Suns players make the playoffs in starting and/or bench roles for other teams.

That's it right there. Got bashed for saying that earlier...But it's true. Look - Jackson isn't going to be anything special. He hasn't shown anything that demonstrates he will get better. That said, he COULD. But how long are u willing to wait? Guys in his class are light-years beyond his level (Tatum, Dennis Smith, Lauri, Collins, dare I say....Ball).

Face it - JJ was a very very bad pick at number 4.

[Mr Puddles]

Looking back now, at Pick #4 last yr Suns should have picked PG's Fox or Dennis Smith and we wouldn't be in this "JJ or TJ" discussion.

That's easy to say in hindsight but didn't necessarily hold true at the time.

It only holds true now because of the whole Eric Bledsoe situation. If Bledsoe hadn't started acting like a petulant child, we would have been having a "Bledsoe or Fox/Smith" discussion instead.

We drafted who we felt was the best player available (and the consensus best player available at the time according to mock drafts). That's what a 20 team win should do, every player aside from Booker was possible trade bait at the time - you don't draft for fit when you're in a situation like that.

[lilfishi22]

Spoiler:

Yeah I dunno about this

TJ ISN'T a useless player or that a semi-efficient 20ppg is an easy get either, that isn't the reason for the grim forward outlook. He's still young, still has potential he can tap into but after 4 seasons and after signing his extension, he *still* hasn't really addressed any facet of his weaknesses. He's increased his scoring production and amazingly kept the same level of efficiency but everywhere else he's been stagnant. That's also the other oft-repeated line which even I believed for the longest time; that he's efficient. He's not inefficient but he's not really that efficient either by today's standards either. In today's world and probably tomorrow's NBA, efficiency is no longer based on raw FG%, it's dependent on the position (of course) as well as where the efficiency is derived from. A player who shoots .45 overall and .38 from the 3 while getting to the line for an efficient 80FT% is more efficient and valuable than a player who shoots .500 from the field but doesn't shoot 3's or get the line often, especially if they are a guard or wing.

From an efficiency standpoint, his TS% is lower than that of even Booker because he doesn't shoot the 3 and last season ranked 9th among Suns players who played over 500min for the season in FT rate. The ONLY thing carrying this narrative that he's an efficient player is that he scores at a good rate from 2P%. For comparison these were his TS%'s since his rookie season

.551
.549
.539
.541
.542 - career average

Those are pretty average efficiency. To compare again, Booker TS%'s since his rookie season below. Here's a guy that shoots .45% from the 2 for his career that is more efficient than TJ who in his 4 year career has shot a least 52% from within the arc. Even now Booker is only average from an efficiency standpoint.

.535
.531
.561
.542 - career average.

I'm not trying to prove Booker > TJ because that's obvious for any basketball fan but I amm just trying to highlight what is considered 'valuable' in today's NBA and going forward with regards to efficiency.

And aside from that one season which now appear to be flukey where he averaged .400 from the 3, he's gotten worse and attempts have gone down. He hasn't shown meaningful improvement from a defensive standpoint and despite Chandler and Len playing less minutes and Big Sauce out the entire season, his rebounding rate and overall rebounding averages have gone down.

So you're right in that players that average 20/6 on ok efficiency don't grow on trees. But big C's who average 20/10 on .52FG% doesn't either. Do you know whose stats those were? Peak Vucevic. Sure they don't grow on trees but they also just aren't nearly as valuable as they once were. He's still scoring at above the Suns TS% but he's scoring at under league average efficiency. Limit it to only forwards and he doesn't fare too well there either from an efficiency standpoint.

He's not a bad player, as you mentioned he doesn't turn the ball over, he's an above average offensive rebounder at his position, he shoots near .500 from the field which has value and he's signed for to an OK contract. But he's certainly not as efficient or as valuable as you might think he is. And even if he's not the reason for a lot of our issues, he hasn't really proven to be an answer either when two of our biggest issues is defense and shooting and he addresses neither.

I've mentioned I think TJ can improve from 3 and likely will, but I don't think unless you have improved, you should just launch 3s. You have mentioned (I think) that you trust JJ is more likely to improve from 3 because he more willingly shoots them. I don't think that's necessarily accurate or a good thing. Westbrook has been a pretty terrible 3 pt shooter his entire career yet he launches a lot of them. He shot over 34% 2 years ago on 7.2 apg, but like you said, even that only equates to about 51% from 2, which is basically below league average TS%. But that's his absolute best year. He normally hovers around 30% and I've read multiple times that he should stop launching these 3s and that he is is by far the leader in history of attempts with that bad of a percentage or less. I think it's good to have a decent number of attempts if you can hit around 33-34%, but you should really only be launching a ton of them if you are over 38% or so.

Funny thing is, JJ reminds me of a Westbrook version of a SF. And I like Westbrook and his fearlessness. Westbrook is historically a great FT shooter though so you'd think he would do better from 3. JJ is not....I don't know if I want him launching that many, and I don't want TJ launching that many either unless they get to a respectable level.

I think to a certain point, allowing your players to launch them is good, and encouraging them to is good, but I think they really need to work on improving in the offseason, and you need to enter the season letting them go for it, but ultimately it's not good to have them launch too many if they are not falling after a number of games. Defenses will just sag off anyway because they want them to shoot them and not have Booker, Bridges, Ariza, Bender, or Anderson shoot them. We have plenty of guys now to space the floor finally. Theoretically Reed should, and of course Daniels if he plays much.

The confidence a guy like JJ has can end up being a little wreckless...and it has worked against Westbrook too in big moments, taking a shot when he could give the ball up for a better one...particularly in that series against GS when he was still playing with KD. TJ hesitates because he knows it's not a good shot for him now...he knows you need to be feeling it. I think he has a mental block with 3s, and I hope Igor works with him to remove it.

It was interesting...while people were talking about Rubio here I went to the Utah board to see what they were saying about him and there is a recent pod about how Snyder yanked Rubio after he missed like 6 shots....and he had been shooting horribly the last 6 games or so and really most of the season to that point. And then he came back (maybe after halftime...and I wonder if Igor got into Snyder's ear) but in front of the whole team Snyder said to Rubio "You know, I looked back at the tape, and I shouldn't have yanked you....those were all good shots" and it empowered him and for the rest of the season he shot like 47% from 3 and thrived with the team. Those types of stories I find interesting....I'm sure it's the type of thing Igor brings with him.

It's in the Rubio appreciation thread there....the pod is linked and even the time they talk about it is mentioned...like the 27 minute mark or something...you only have to listen to like 5 minutes of the pod to get the story.

Anyway, Rubio, always a good FT shooter, they said this was the first time a coach empowered him to shoot from distance instead of encouraging him not to. Part of me thinks Igor had something to do with this and I think he can do the same with someone like TJ who hesitates...maybe..

I don't think JJ needs any more of a green light to shoot or take it to the rim. He doesn't lack confidence in doing that. He needs to learn to pick his spots better though. I noticed when it was posted that Chriss was among the league leaders in missed dunks, Jackson wasn't far behind last year...and of those leaders both of those guys had some of the fewest attempts of the most, so their % of missed dunks was probably at the very top.

That's not all I'm saying is an indicator that JJ's 3PT shooting should improve. I'm saying that his willingness to shoot shows confidence and confidence is a real factor when shooting. The willingness to shoot the 3, even if not at great %'s still has value as well because he's making his defender actually defend. Maybe not tight like defending Curry but defenders are straight up sagging off Warren completely because they know he's not even gonna shoot the open 3 and that hurts our offense. Sure we can debate exactly how much value his willingness to shoot really has but I'd rather take a guy who's willing to take an open shot (even if they don't shoot it well) over a guy who just refuses to shoot. Even you get a guy like JJ open in the corner for 3 and he shoots it, you can live with that. Right now his issue is he's all too willing to shoot but that's not something that's difficult to fix.

From a willingness to shoot standpoint even including TJ's flukey .400 season, he shoots a career average of .283 on 188 attempts over 4 seasons. JJ shot .263 in his rookie season on 217 attempts. Given we've seen TJ try to incorporate his 3PT shooting to his game for 4 seasons now and through 4 off-seasons/training camps, what do we have to go on that he's going to somehow meaningfully improve? Unlike JJ who shot a poor .263 in his rookie season, we've seen TJ try to improve for 4 whole seasons now. I'm not confident that JJ will ever be a great near .400 3PT shooter but he's at least willing to shoot and he's obviously working on his shot. Maybe his shot won't ever get there but we can't rule that out after one season in the league. I need to know where you get this confidence in TJ that he's just going to improve.

[bwgood77]

Spoiler:

Yeah I dunno about this

TJ ISN'T a useless player or that a semi-efficient 20ppg is an easy get either, that isn't the reason for the grim forward outlook. He's still young, still has potential he can tap into but after 4 seasons and after signing his extension, he *still* hasn't really addressed any facet of his weaknesses. He's increased his scoring production and amazingly kept the same level of efficiency but everywhere else he's been stagnant. That's also the other oft-repeated line which even I believed for the longest time; that he's efficient. He's not inefficient but he's not really that efficient either by today's standards either. In today's world and probably tomorrow's NBA, efficiency is no longer based on raw FG%, it's dependent on the position (of course) as well as where the efficiency is derived from. A player who shoots .45 overall and .38 from the 3 while getting to the line for an efficient 80FT% is more efficient and valuable than a player who shoots .500 from the field but doesn't shoot 3's or get the line often, especially if they are a guard or wing.

From an efficiency standpoint, his TS% is lower than that of even Booker because he doesn't shoot the 3 and last season ranked 9th among Suns players who played over 500min for the season in FT rate. The ONLY thing carrying this narrative that he's an efficient player is that he scores at a good rate from 2P%. For comparison these were his TS%'s since his rookie season

.551
.549
.539
.541
.542 - career average

Those are pretty average efficiency. To compare again, Booker TS%'s since his rookie season below. Here's a guy that shoots .45% from the 2 for his career that is more efficient than TJ who in his 4 year career has shot a least 52% from within the arc. Even now Booker is only average from an efficiency standpoint.

.535
.531
.561
.542 - career average.

I'm not trying to prove Booker > TJ because that's obvious for any basketball fan but I amm just trying to highlight what is considered 'valuable' in today's NBA and going forward with regards to efficiency.

And aside from that one season which now appear to be flukey where he averaged .400 from the 3, he's gotten worse and attempts have gone down. He hasn't shown meaningful improvement from a defensive standpoint and despite Chandler and Len playing less minutes and Big Sauce out the entire season, his rebounding rate and overall rebounding averages have gone down.

So you're right in that players that average 20/6 on ok efficiency don't grow on trees. But big C's who average 20/10 on .52FG% doesn't either. Do you know whose stats those were? Peak Vucevic. Sure they don't grow on trees but they also just aren't nearly as valuable as they once were. He's still scoring at above the Suns TS% but he's scoring at under league average efficiency. Limit it to only forwards and he doesn't fare too well there either from an efficiency standpoint.

He's not a bad player, as you mentioned he doesn't turn the ball over, he's an above average offensive rebounder at his position, he shoots near .500 from the field which has value and he's signed for to an OK contract. But he's certainly not as efficient or as valuable as you might think he is. And even if he's not the reason for a lot of our issues, he hasn't really proven to be an answer either when two of our biggest issues is defense and shooting and he addresses neither.

I've mentioned I think TJ can improve from 3 and likely will, but I don't think unless you have improved, you should just launch 3s. You have mentioned (I think) that you trust JJ is more likely to improve from 3 because he more willingly shoots them. I don't think that's necessarily accurate or a good thing. Westbrook has been a pretty terrible 3 pt shooter his entire career yet he launches a lot of them. He shot over 34% 2 years ago on 7.2 apg, but like you said, even that only equates to about 51% from 2, which is basically below league average TS%. But that's his absolute best year. He normally hovers around 30% and I've read multiple times that he should stop launching these 3s and that he is is by far the leader in history of attempts with that bad of a percentage or less. I think it's good to have a decent number of attempts if you can hit around 33-34%, but you should really only be launching a ton of them if you are over 38% or so.

Funny thing is, JJ reminds me of a Westbrook version of a SF. And I like Westbrook and his fearlessness. Westbrook is historically a great FT shooter though so you'd think he would do better from 3. JJ is not....I don't know if I want him launching that many, and I don't want TJ launching that many either unless they get to a respectable level.

I think to a certain point, allowing your players to launch them is good, and encouraging them to is good, but I think they really need to work on improving in the offseason, and you need to enter the season letting them go for it, but ultimately it's not good to have them launch too many if they are not falling after a number of games. Defenses will just sag off anyway because they want them to shoot them and not have Booker, Bridges, Ariza, Bender, or Anderson shoot them. We have plenty of guys now to space the floor finally. Theoretically Reed should, and of course Daniels if he plays much.

The confidence a guy like JJ has can end up being a little wreckless...and it has worked against Westbrook too in big moments, taking a shot when he could give the ball up for a better one...particularly in that series against GS when he was still playing with KD. TJ hesitates because he knows it's not a good shot for him now...he knows you need to be feeling it. I think he has a mental block with 3s, and I hope Igor works with him to remove it.

It was interesting...while people were talking about Rubio here I went to the Utah board to see what they were saying about him and there is a recent pod about how Snyder yanked Rubio after he missed like 6 shots....and he had been shooting horribly the last 6 games or so and really most of the season to that point. And then he came back (maybe after halftime...and I wonder if Igor got into Snyder's ear) but in front of the whole team Snyder said to Rubio "You know, I looked back at the tape, and I shouldn't have yanked you....those were all good shots" and it empowered him and for the rest of the season he shot like 47% from 3 and thrived with the team. Those types of stories I find interesting....I'm sure it's the type of thing Igor brings with him.

It's in the Rubio appreciation thread there....the pod is linked and even the time they talk about it is mentioned...like the 27 minute mark or something...you only have to listen to like 5 minutes of the pod to get the story.

Anyway, Rubio, always a good FT shooter, they said this was the first time a coach empowered him to shoot from distance instead of encouraging him not to. Part of me thinks Igor had something to do with this and I think he can do the same with someone like TJ who hesitates...maybe..

I don't think JJ needs any more of a green light to shoot or take it to the rim. He doesn't lack confidence in doing that. He needs to learn to pick his spots better though. I noticed when it was posted that Chriss was among the league leaders in missed dunks, Jackson wasn't far behind last year...and of those leaders both of those guys had some of the fewest attempts of the most, so their % of missed dunks was probably at the very top.

That's not all I'm saying is an indicator that JJ's 3PT shooting should improve. I'm saying that his willingness to shoot shows confidence and confidence is a real factor when shooting. The willingness to shoot the 3, even if not at great %'s still has value as well because he's making his defender actually defend. Maybe not tight like defending Curry but defenders are straight up sagging off Warren completely because they know he's not even gonna shoot the open 3 and that hurts our offense. Sure we can debate exactly how much value his willingness to shoot really has but I'd rather take a guy who's willing to take an open shot (even if they don't shoot it well) over a guy who just refuses to shoot. Even you get a guy like JJ open in the corner for 3 and he shoots it, you can live with that. Right now his issue is he's all too willing to shoot but that's not something that's difficult to fix.

From a willingness to shoot standpoint even including TJ's flukey .400 season, he shoots a career average of .283 on 188 attempts over 4 seasons. JJ shot .263 in his rookie season on 217 attempts. Given we've seen TJ try to incorporate his 3PT shooting to his game for 4 seasons now and through 4 off-seasons/training camps, what do we have to go on that he's going to somehow meaningfully improve? Unlike JJ who shot a poor .263 in his rookie season, we've seen TJ try to improve for 4 whole seasons now. I'm not confident that JJ will ever be a great near .400 3PT shooter but he's at least willing to shoot and he's obviously working on his shot. Maybe his shot won't ever get there but we can't rule that out after one season in the league. I need to know where you get this confidence in TJ that he's just going to improve.

I think Igor will likely do one of two things. But before that he will tell TJ to work on his 3 pt shot, or he should. If not, he will utilize him in other ways. TJ can be sagged off at the line yes, but defenders can't ignore him if he has the ball. He's more dangerous than JJ with the ball in his hands, regardless of not shooting the ball. He draws defenders better which is probably a big reason why Booker shot so much better playing with him.

[lilfishi22]

Spoiler:

I think the mistake implicit in this oft-repeated line of reasoning is thinking that efficient 20 PPG players grow on trees. They don't. Not in "today's NBA" or yesterday's or tomorrow's. There are several aspects of TJ's game the don't get enough credit. True, the kid isn't a facilitator. But he does get offensive rebounds and hustle points, he doesn't turn the ball over, and he gives ballhandlers an outlet for assists. He can be an integral part of a highly efficient offense if put in the right situation.

This line of reasoning exists only because TJ doesn't get any national attention, and soft-minded Suns fans let this affect their thinking. And the reason he doesn't get national attention is because he was unheralded coming out of college, and we haven't won any games. IMO, TJ is the player least responsible for this team's struggles over the last couple seasons. So it's all bull**** to me.

The latest BSOTS pod where they wanted to trade TJ+ for George Hill made me want to throw up. Whatever TJ failed to do for the Suns last season, George Hill failed to do for the King five times over. What foolishness. GTFOutta here with that noise.

Yeah I dunno about this

TJ ISN'T a useless player or that a semi-efficient 20ppg is an easy get either, that isn't the reason for the grim forward outlook. He's still young, still has potential he can tap into but after 4 seasons and after signing his extension, he *still* hasn't really addressed any facet of his weaknesses. He's increased his scoring production and amazingly kept the same level of efficiency but everywhere else he's been stagnant. That's also the other oft-repeated line which even I believed for the longest time; that he's efficient. He's not inefficient but he's not really that efficient either by today's standards either. In today's world and probably tomorrow's NBA, efficiency is no longer based on raw FG%, it's dependent on the position (of course) as well as where the efficiency is derived from. A player who shoots .45 overall and .38 from the 3 while getting to the line for an efficient 80FT% is more efficient and valuable than a player who shoots .500 from the field but doesn't shoot 3's or get the line often, especially if they are a guard or wing.

From an efficiency standpoint, his TS% is lower than that of even Booker because he doesn't shoot the 3 and last season ranked 9th among Suns players who played over 500min for the season in FT rate. The ONLY thing carrying this narrative that he's an efficient player is that he scores at a good rate from 2P%. For comparison these were his TS%'s since his rookie season

.551
.549
.539
.541
.542 - career average

Those are pretty average efficiency. To compare again, Booker TS%'s since his rookie season below. Here's a guy that shoots .45% from the 2 for his career that is more efficient than TJ who in his 4 year career has shot a least 52% from within the arc. Even now Booker is only average from an efficiency standpoint.

.535
.531
.561
.542 - career average.

I'm not trying to prove Booker > TJ because that's obvious for any basketball fan but I amm just trying to highlight what is considered 'valuable' in today's NBA and going forward with regards to efficiency.

And aside from that one season which now appear to be flukey where he averaged .400 from the 3, he's gotten worse and attempts have gone down. He hasn't shown meaningful improvement from a defensive standpoint and despite Chandler and Len playing less minutes and Big Sauce out the entire season, his rebounding rate and overall rebounding averages have gone down.

So you're right in that players that average 20/6 on ok efficiency don't grow on trees. But big C's who average 20/10 on .52FG% doesn't either. Do you know whose stats those were? Peak Vucevic. Sure they don't grow on trees but they also just aren't nearly as valuable as they once were. He's still scoring at above the Suns TS% but he's scoring at under league average efficiency. Limit it to only forwards and he doesn't fare too well there either from an efficiency standpoint.

He's not a bad player, as you mentioned he doesn't turn the ball over, he's an above average offensive rebounder at his position, he shoots near .500 from the field which has value and he's signed for to an OK contract. But he's certainly not as efficient or as valuable as you might think he is. And even if he's not the reason for a lot of our issues, he hasn't really proven to be an answer either when two of our biggest issues is defense and shooting and he addresses neither.

Really this is the argument of TJ versus JJ.

The question is are we willing to ship TJ out for a PG knowing full well that Ariza is not a long term option. Knowing we are left with two unproven players in Jackson and Bridges at the future of the SF position. Knowing that neither is really starter material for this season and possibly next or maybe never. It's maddening to minimize TJ's shooting efficiency and then turn around and say Booker and JJ are going to be so much more efficient surrounded by a legitimate big man and shooters. Can't the same thing be said for Warren?

There are a lot of negatives to JJs game that are being conveniently overlooked. There are a lot of assumptions that JJ is going to miraculously improve. The point is if we need point guard we better ship out the right player because I'm tired of seeing all these ex-Suns players make the playoffs in starting and/or bench roles for other teams.

For me it isn't. It's an argument of TJ vs a PG we could trade for.

I'd argue that a PG, who gives you 15/5 per36 and has a 3pt shot (+.350) is more valuable than TJ Warren. Right now, TJ Warren has only proven he can do one thing, score, from the 3PT line in. You can say he rebounds too but his rebounding is nothing to write home about. He doesn't really pass, he doesn't really create his own shot, he doesn't spread the floor for you and he doesn't really defend well either. And the thing that a lot of fans seem to overlook is his health. For whatever mysterious reason, he's missed close to 20 games a season in the past 2 seasons. At some point you have to question his durability.

Considering this, would someone like a Darren Collison, DJ Augustin, JJ Barea, Goran Dragic, Jeff Teague, even Spencer Dinwiddie be more valuable than a one-trick pony? You might look at half of these name and scoff but really think about *how* they impact the game and look at what we're in need of. I'm not even a fan of half of these guys but I'm just making the point that putting TJ up for sale shouldn't be seen as just some fan who wants to move TJ just to move him or that TJ's on court value hasn't been carefully considered.

The reason I'm in favor of moving TJ while preferring to keep JJ isn't because TJ *can't* improve, it's that we haven't seen enough evidence over 4 seasons that he will whereas JJ had an inefficient 1st season but no door is really closed for him to improve. I'd argue it's more likely a 21 year with 1 year of NBA experience and was a top 3 NBA prospect has more room to grow than a soon to be 25 year old wing who has had many opportunities to improve his weaknesses over 4 seasons.

I hope that TJ can find that 3PT shot, like I do every season since he became a Phoenix Sun, because if he gets it, he'll be seriously valuable. But if we have to go by what we know and what we've seen, the odds aren't in TJ's favor to improve from a 3PT shooting, offense creating or defending standpoint. And if that's the case, then wouldn't it make the most sense to move him (someone who's a known quantity) for a PG that we could REALLY use?

[lilfishi22]

I think Igor will likely do one of two things. But before that he will tell TJ to work on his 3 pt shot, or he should. If not, he will utilize him in other ways. TJ can be sagged off at the line yes, but defenders can't ignore him if he has the ball. He's more dangerous than JJ with the ball in his hands, regardless of not shooting the ball. He draws defenders better which is probably a big reason why Booker shot so much better playing with him.

Here's the thing, how could ANYONE buy that TJ hasn't been working on his 3PT shot the past 4 offseasons knowing that it's a key weakness of his and also major area of importance on most NBA offenses?

Also does Booker really shoot much better playing alongside TJ? Looking at the 2-man combinations, Booker played with TJ in almost 1300min of play and was a negative .020FG% per100 while in almost 700min of play with JJ, he was a negative 0.017FG% per100.

Also with TJ vs JJ on the floor Booker is a negative .027eFG% and a negative .028eFG% per100 respectively. I think the differences are negligible. However with TJ on the floor, he's getting to the line 4.2 times less per100, while he's getting to the line only 0.4 times less per100 with JJ.

[bwgood77]

I think Igor will likely do one of two things. But before that he will tell TJ to work on his 3 pt shot, or he should. If not, he will utilize him in other ways. TJ can be sagged off at the line yes, but defenders can't ignore him if he has the ball. He's more dangerous than JJ with the ball in his hands, regardless of not shooting the ball. He draws defenders better which is probably a big reason why Booker shot so much better playing with him.

Here's the thing, how could ANYONE buy that TJ hasn't been working on his 3PT shot the past 4 offseasons knowing that it's a key weakness of his and also major area of importance on most NBA offenses?

Also does Booker really shoot much better playing alongside TJ? Looking at the 2-man combinations, Booker played with TJ in almost 1300min of play and was a negative .020FG% per100 while in almost 700min of play with JJ, he was a negative 0.017FG% per100.

Also with TJ vs JJ on the floor Booker is a negative .027eFG% and a negative .028eFG% per100 respectively. I think the differences are negligible. However with TJ on the floor, he's getting to the line 4.2 times less per100, while he's getting to the line only 0.4 times less per100 with JJ.

I've posted it a number of times.

Booker shot 40.6% from 3 with Warren. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

Booker shot 32.4% from 3 without him. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

I've also posted how he shoots with Jackson and it's basically the opposite, which obviously makes sense. Warren still attracts defensive attention.

Yes, Warren should have been working on his 3, and maybe he did some, but for all I know, Watson told him, "You're doing great...I love you...go be with your family this offseason." He improved the offseason with Hornacek around. But regressed the two with Watson at the helm. Now he should take his own initiative, but the way we started the NBA season last year, Watson obviously had no clue how to get his team prepared for the season.

[lilfishi22]

I think Igor will likely do one of two things. But before that he will tell TJ to work on his 3 pt shot, or he should. If not, he will utilize him in other ways. TJ can be sagged off at the line yes, but defenders can't ignore him if he has the ball. He's more dangerous than JJ with the ball in his hands, regardless of not shooting the ball. He draws defenders better which is probably a big reason why Booker shot so much better playing with him.

Here's the thing, how could ANYONE buy that TJ hasn't been working on his 3PT shot the past 4 offseasons knowing that it's a key weakness of his and also major area of importance on most NBA offenses?

Also does Booker really shoot much better playing alongside TJ? Looking at the 2-man combinations, Booker played with TJ in almost 1300min of play and was a negative .020FG% per100 while in almost 700min of play with JJ, he was a negative 0.017FG% per100.

Also with TJ vs JJ on the floor Booker is a negative .027eFG% and a negative .028eFG% per100 respectively. I think the differences are negligible. However with TJ on the floor, he's getting to the line 4.2 times less per100, while he's getting to the line only 0.4 times less per100 with JJ.

I've posted it a number of times.

Booker shot 40.6% from 3 with Warren. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

Booker shot 32.4% from 3 without him. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

I've also posted how he shoots with Jackson and it's basically the opposite, which obviously makes sense. Warren still attracts defensive attention.

Yes, Warren should have been working on his 3, and maybe he did some, but for all I know, Watson told him, "You're doing great...I love you...go be with your family this offseason." He improved the offseason with Hornacek around. But regressed the two with Watson at the helm. Now he should take his own initiative, but the way we started the NBA season last year, Watson obviously had no clue how to get his team prepared for the season.

I haven't used this site before but looking at bref for 2-man rotations, the differences are marginal between the two sets of players.

Warren attracts some defensive attention but it's hard to say how much out to the perimeter. All I've seen is the ball get to him when he's open and he doesn't shoot the ball or he takes one dribble in to shoot the long 2. I'm not confident with this type of player going forward. If we're talking about team building, do you really want a guy who can't defend, can't pass and can't create their own shot as your starting 3? I'm not going to make the case that JJ is better right now given his rookie season but TJ has some fundamental weaknesses to his game which I'd happily trade in for a PG if a trade was available which is what I've been arguing for. It's never been about TJ vs JJ

[NaturalBuns]

TJ reminds me of grant hill when he played in phx just kind of plays within his limits doesn't get carried away but doesn't play alpha.

Jackson looks like one of those guys who either turns out to be a total stud or never progresses his career from his rookie year. Jackson summer league reminded me of Archie Goodwin a guy with talent but never got better just kept being "raw" till the day he was gone

[bwgood77]

Here's the thing, how could ANYONE buy that TJ hasn't been working on his 3PT shot the past 4 offseasons knowing that it's a key weakness of his and also major area of importance on most NBA offenses?

Also does Booker really shoot much better playing alongside TJ? Looking at the 2-man combinations, Booker played with TJ in almost 1300min of play and was a negative .020FG% per100 while in almost 700min of play with JJ, he was a negative 0.017FG% per100.

Also with TJ vs JJ on the floor Booker is a negative .027eFG% and a negative .028eFG% per100 respectively. I think the differences are negligible. However with TJ on the floor, he's getting to the line 4.2 times less per100, while he's getting to the line only 0.4 times less per100 with JJ.

I've posted it a number of times.

Booker shot 40.6% from 3 with Warren. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

Booker shot 32.4% from 3 without him. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

I've also posted how he shoots with Jackson and it's basically the opposite, which obviously makes sense. Warren still attracts defensive attention.

Yes, Warren should have been working on his 3, and maybe he did some, but for all I know, Watson told him, "You're doing great...I love you...go be with your family this offseason." He improved the offseason with Hornacek around. But regressed the two with Watson at the helm. Now he should take his own initiative, but the way we started the NBA season last year, Watson obviously had no clue how to get his team prepared for the season.

I haven't used this site before but looking at bref for 2-man rotations, the differences are marginal between the two sets of players.

Warren attracts some defensive attention but it's hard to say how much out to the perimeter. All I've seen is the ball get to him when he's open and he doesn't shoot the ball or he takes one dribble in to shoot the long 2. I'm not confident with this type of player going forward. If we're talking about team building, do you really want a guy who can't defend, can't pass and can't create their own shot as your starting 3? I'm not going to make the case that JJ is better right now given his rookie season but TJ has some fundamental weaknesses to his game which I'd happily trade in for a PG if a trade was available which is what I've been arguing for. It's never been about TJ vs JJ

Bridges is probably the perfect answer. But the fact remains, TJ is a good scorer when he gets the ball. If you want to call league average efficiency not good for a guy who scores 20ppg, fine, but it gets tougher to score that many points the more you score, and defenders will stick with you because, as you say, right when he gets the ball, he's likely to score within a dribble or so.

His role has mostly been off cuts to score immediately off getting the ball. He's not a primary ball handler or secondary one so I don't expect a lot of assists...he doesn't dribble a lot. I like his type of play...it's the opposite of someone like Knight. Is he the ideal starting SF for a contender as he was on the last year of his rookie contract? No. Can he be in the future? Probably not, but I think he could certainly be an important role player on a contender with a few improvements. I don't judge people that quickly in their careers though. I wouldn't have given up on anyone that McD drafted in the first round yet, other than Goodwin.

[lilfishi22]

I've posted it a number of times.

Booker shot 40.6% from 3 with Warren. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

Booker shot 32.4% from 3 without him. http://nbawowy.com/#/28b1tihvp8g

I've also posted how he shoots with Jackson and it's basically the opposite, which obviously makes sense. Warren still attracts defensive attention.

Yes, Warren should have been working on his 3, and maybe he did some, but for all I know, Watson told him, "You're doing great...I love you...go be with your family this offseason." He improved the offseason with Hornacek around. But regressed the two with Watson at the helm. Now he should take his own initiative, but the way we started the NBA season last year, Watson obviously had no clue how to get his team prepared for the season.

I haven't used this site before but looking at bref for 2-man rotations, the differences are marginal between the two sets of players.

Warren attracts some defensive attention but it's hard to say how much out to the perimeter. All I've seen is the ball get to him when he's open and he doesn't shoot the ball or he takes one dribble in to shoot the long 2. I'm not confident with this type of player going forward. If we're talking about team building, do you really want a guy who can't defend, can't pass and can't create their own shot as your starting 3? I'm not going to make the case that JJ is better right now given his rookie season but TJ has some fundamental weaknesses to his game which I'd happily trade in for a PG if a trade was available which is what I've been arguing for. It's never been about TJ vs JJ

Bridges is probably the perfect answer. But the fact remains, TJ is a good scorer when he gets the ball. If you want to call league average efficiency not good for a guy who scores 20ppg, fine, but it gets tougher to score that many points the more you score, and defenders will stick with you because, as you say, right when he gets the ball, he's likely to score within a dribble or so.

His role has mostly been off cuts to score immediately off getting the ball. He's not a primary ball handler or secondary one so I don't expect a lot of assists...he doesn't dribble a lot. I like his type of play...it's the opposite of someone like Knight. Is he the ideal starting SF for a contender as he was on the last year of his rookie contract? No. Can he be in the future? Probably not, but I think he could certainly be an important role player on a contender with a few improvements. I don't judge people that quickly in their careers though. I wouldn't have given up on anyone that McD drafted in the first round yet, other than Goodwin.

I said he's below league average. Booker is marginally above league average. The problem is TJ doesn't have a whole lot of room to improve from an efficiency standpoint unless he gets a 3PT shot or starts getting to line more often. His TS% hasn't increased meaningfully because what he lost in 2P%, he kinda made up for with +1.6FTA. He's found a way to be somewhat efficient while scoring 20ppg which is a great accomplishment but it's clear he doesn't have the skill set to be a starter on a team with a better than average league offense.

Bridges in theory is the perfect answer. He's suppose to be the defender, floor spreader and smart player that we're looking for. He's not as dynamic as JJ and probably doesn't have the same ceiling but I'm much more confident with his floor.

For the record, people think I hate TJ but I don't. I think he's a reliable 20ppg who can give you some nice O boards and we drafted him and developed him into this player. That's a hella achievement for a guy we took at the end of lottery. But if I'm looking ahead, he's not the guy that's going to help us get there. I've been waiting for him to get back his 3PT shot for 2 seasons now and nothing he's shown in the past 2 seasons gives me confidence he has what it takes to regain a near .400 clip.

[BurningHeart]

You guys are just a bunch of sexist bigots bro.

Can't tell if sarcasm

Hard to tell nowadays, huh.

[oddity]

You guys are just a bunch of sexist bigots bro.

Can't tell if sarcasm

Hard to tell nowadays, huh.

Sign 'o the times

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[m1chal]

Can't tell if sarcasm

Hard to tell nowadays, huh.

Sign 'o the times

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

If one can have fake news, can one have fake sarcasm?

[stoo]

can we send tj, jj, daniels or canaan and arthur or king for a good PG?

[darealjuice]

It’s amazing how 2.5 bad games at Summer Leagues has turned JJ’s rookie season from very promising to “needs to allow the real professionals play”, “was a horrible pick at #4”, and “looks like he’ll never improve like Archie Goodwin” lmao. Suns fans have to be the quickest to give up on young players out of any fan base, pretty embarrassing stuff.

[BobbieL]

It’s amazing how 2.5 bad games at Summer Leagues has turned JJ’s rookie season from very promising to “needs to allow the real professionals play”, “was a horrible pick at #4”, and “looks like he’ll never improve like Archie Goodwin” lmao. Suns fans have to be the quickest to give up on young players out of any fan base, pretty embarrassing stuff.

I agree. Now, does that mean I am opposed to trading Jackson. For the right player, sure. But not for even Goran Dragic would I trade Josh Jackson. Jackson had a couple bad summer gam league games - big deal. Its summer league basketball

[Saberestar]

can we send tj, jj, daniels or canaan and arthur or king for a good PG?

That is a big time package. Who do you have in mind as a good PG?