RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#18 2018-19

[mademan]

Demar made 3rd team all nba 2 years ago and made 2nd team all nba last year. Its not like Lowry was this one man machine.

Absolutely. Demar certainly helped, but nobody is gonna put him top 30, and I dont disagree with that. Lowry has clearly been the best player on a perennial 50 win team that has had more roster turnover than people realize.

That said. This is Towns spot. It shouldve been Towns spot like right after Jokic

I definitely would have Demar in the top 30. I think hes in the 20-25 range, I think his all nba teams were justified. With that said I am a Demar fan (somewhat). But yes I am in no way making an argument for Demar of KAT. I think this is KAT 100%.

I've always been a Demar hater on the Raps board, but even looking at him objectively, i cant imagine having him over anybody on that poll list, and that drops him to 27th at best. And thats not including guys like Love, Walker or Griffin (the first 2, imo, being clearly better than him). And there are a slew of other wings on his level like Beal and Middleton. Guys like Porzingis/Hayward/Cousins, who if they come back healthy, are also better.

Volume scoring gets overrated and things like defense, playmaking, leadership, hustle get underrated. Which is why nationally, Derozan has always been considered better than Lowry while all impact stats will tell you Lowrys not only better, but considerably so.

[jazzfan1971]

Voted Towns, Add Mitchell.

[eminence]

Lowry/Horford the main choices for me, going with Lowry by a slim margin, nominating Kemba.

[VanWest82]

If I'm starting a team from scratch I'd go Simmons no question. If I have a pretty good playoff team and I'm adding one of these guys I'd go Horford. I voted Horford just because he's so criminally underrated. Also, it's crazy to me that KAT is getting so many votes. That guy hasn't proven yet that he impacts winning. Feels more like a good stats, bad team guy.

Edit: add Blake Griffin. He should be in there over a bunch of the current guys even though he's fallen off a little.

[ITYSL]

I'll try to update the thread with some numbers periodically. As of now, I'm just doing it for the top 6 in the poll

Scoring

PPG:
George, 21.9
Towns, 21.3
Thompson, 20
Lowry, 16.2
Simmons, 15.8
Horford, 12.9

PTS/100 Poss:
Towns, 29.9
George, 29.8
Thompson, 28.1
Lowry, 24.9
Simmons, 22.5
Horford, 20.3

eFG%
Towns, .596
Thompson, .585
Lowry, .553
Horford, .553
Simmons, .545
George, .521

TS%
Towns, .646
Lowry, .598
Thompson, .598
Horford, .575
George, .570
Simmons, .557

[Prez]

If I'm starting a team from scratch I'd go Simmons no question. If I have a pretty good playoff team and I'm adding one of these guys I'd go Horford. I voted Horford just because he's so criminally underrated. Also, it's crazy to me that KAT is getting so many votes. That guy hasn't proven yet that he impacts winning. Feels more like a good stats, bad team guy.

Edit: add Blake Griffin. He should be in there over a bunch of the current guys even though he's fallen off a little.

Pretty much every actual impact metric across the board points to him being a hugely impactful player, and he did it on a very good team.

[ITYSL]

Basic defensive metrics

RPG / RP100
Towns, 12.3 / 17.3
Simmons, 8.1 / 11.6
Horford, 7.4 / 11.6
George, 5.7 / 7.7
Lowry, 5.6/8.5
Thompson, 3.8 / 5.3

SPG / SP100
George, 2.0 / 2.8
Simmons, 1.7 / 2.5
Lowry, 1.1 / 1.7
Towns, 0.8 / 1.1
Thompson, 0.8 / 1.1
Horford, 0.6 / 0.9

BPG / BP100
Towns, 1.4 / 2.0
Horford, 1.1 / 1.7
Simmons, 0.9 / 1.2
George, 0.5 / 0.7
Thompson, 0.5 / 0.7
Lowry, 0.2 / 0.4

[Johnny Tomala]

Cousins getting no love smh

Ya he's injured, but he's still one of the most dominant bigs in the game. How can people just assume he's significantly worse, you have to go by what you've seen of the player and what we've seen is easily a top 10-15 player

Perfect my thoughts. I voted Cousins, I have him in my Top 10 players. Before he went down to injury, he averaged 25.2 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.6 bpg and Pelicans were the first team to beat Rockets with Paul-Harden-Capela. Until I see Cousins post injury that isn't on even 80% of his pre-injury production then Cousins is still for me best Center in the NBA and Top 10 player. I voted Cousins.

[iggymcfrack]

Been thinking about this a bunch the last couple days and I think it’s gotta be Lowry. He’s got 3 straight years Top 10 in RPM, and while you could see Towns overtaking him this year for the regular season, I’d trust Lowry way more in the playoffs. Guy who kinda struggled for years in the playoffs and then had an amazing postseason last year >>> young guy who hasn’t shown he can get it done in the postseason at all.

[ITYSL]

Playmaking

APG / AP100
Simmons, 8.2 / 11.6
Lowry, 6.9 / 10.5
Horford, 4.7 / 7.4
George, 3.3 / 4.5
Thompson, 2.5 / 3.6
Towns, 2.4 / 3.4

TOVPG / TOVP100
Thompson, 1.8 / 2.5
Horford, 1.8 / 2.9
Towns, 1.9 / 2.7
Lowry, 2.3 / 3.6
George, 2.7 / 3.6
Simmons, 3.4 / 4.9

AST/TOV
Lowry, 2.9
Horford, 2.6
Simmons, 2.4
Thompson, 1.4
Towns, 1.3
George, 1.2

[iggymcfrack]

Not really seeing the argument for George over Lowry. Like Lowry, he’s an older guy who gets a lot of his value from defense, but he just hasn’t impacted the game as much in quite a few years. Here are their RPMs by season since George came back from that horrific injury:

2015/16
Lowry: +6.82 (7th), George: +4.93 (13th)

2016/17
Lowry: +5.88 (10th), George: +2.58 (37th)

2017/18
Lowry: +5.18 (9th), George: +2.90 (34th)

There was a time when you could justify George > Lowry because of playoffs but after George had that awful series against Utah while Lowry tore it up against Washington and Cleveland last year, I’m just not seeing it. Would be interested to hear from a George supporter why they like him over Lowry.

[iggymcfrack]

Cousins getting no love smh

Ya he's injured, but he's still one of the most dominant bigs in the game. How can people just assume he's significantly worse, you have to go by what you've seen of the player and what we've seen is easily a top 10-15 player

Perfect my thoughts. I voted Cousins, I have him in my Top 10 players. Before he went down to injury, he averaged 25.2 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.6 bpg and Pelicans were the first team to beat Rockets with Paul-Harden-Capela. Until I see Cousins post injury that isn't on even 80% of his pre-injury production then Cousins is still for me best Center in the NBA and Top 10 player. I voted Cousins.

I felt like Cousins and Towns were roughly on the same level before Cousins went down last year. If I’m going with a big man, seems like a no-brainer to go with the one who didn’t suffer a debilitating injury that everyone struggles with the next year who won’t even be back for the start of the season. Still like Lowry over both though.

[VanWest82]

If I'm starting a team from scratch I'd go Simmons no question. If I have a pretty good playoff team and I'm adding one of these guys I'd go Horford. I voted Horford just because he's so criminally underrated. Also, it's crazy to me that KAT is getting so many votes. That guy hasn't proven yet that he impacts winning. Feels more like a good stats, bad team guy.

Edit: add Blake Griffin. He should be in there over a bunch of the current guys even though he's fallen off a little.

Pretty much every actual impact metric across the board points to him being a hugely impactful player, and he did it on a very good team.

So to clarify, I think he makes a big impact on both ends: positively on offense (despite what we saw in that Houston series), and negatively on defense.

I get that his counting stats and efficiency are fantastic, and his RPM and BPM were much better this past year. I will also confess that I watched less Minny games last year than the two years prior (as I couldn't take watching him and Wiggins suck so badly on defense anymore). Having conceded that, how much of his supposed improvement was KAT figuring it out vs. Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson raising the defensive floor of that team, and helping to sort out their end of game issues? I would argue it was mostly Butler and Gibson.

Per nbawowy, KAT had an on court tDrtg of 112.0 last year which would rank about 18th (out of 32 teams) in the NBA, so not great. Take Butler off the court, and that tDrtg drops to 117.2. Take Gibson off the floor and it drops even further to 119.5 (vs. 111.8 Ortg). Now we're talking about one of the worst (maybe THE worst) defense/team in the league. That isn't all on KAT - wolves have several defensively challenged players - but he's the biggest problem IMO, or at least he was two years ago.

Based on the games I did watch last year, he's clearly improving on that end but he still has a long ways to go. I also think he needs to improve as play maker as well. He gets tunnel vision with the ball way too often. Sometimes we have to dig beyond the advanced stats which don't always paint the most accurate picture, particularly the all-in-one stats.

[iggymcfrack]

Towns is getting insanely underrated now, and you should probably remove Cousins from the list all together at this point.

This is Towns now by a substantial margin.

Also add Mitchell next.

If you were a casual fan and watched last years playoffs and saw Towns, you would think he was a struggling role-player. He can improve his standing this year but those playoffs really hurt his stock on the big stage. Thats probably a big reasoning for the lack of votes.

Then why is Damian Lillard ranked already? Dude couldn't even win a single game in the first round.

No idea. I thought he was second most overrated player who’s gone so far behind Kyrie. I wouldn’t have considered him until Lowry, Towns, and Simmons were all off the board. With that said, Towns’ playoffs were an issue and with someone still on the board that’s been a stud for years and went balls out against LeBron last year putting up 17/4/9 on .737 TS% including a game-tying shot with 2 seconds left, I think he’s gotta be the guy. If Derozan would have played like a Top 100 player that series, they probably actually win the series. Unfortunately for Toronto, D-League Demar showed up and they got swept.

[ITYSL]

Some advanced metrics

PER
Towns, 24.9
Simmons, 20.0
Lowry, 19.5
George, 18.7
Horford, 17.6
Thompson, 16.1

WS/48
Towns, .230
Lowry, .194
Horford, .165
Simmons, .162
George, .148
Thompson, .094

BPM
Lowry, 5.9
Towns, 5.5
Simmons, 4.6
Horford, 4.0
George, 2.6
Thompson, -0.6

RAPM
Towns, 3.52
Lowry, 2.96
Simmons, 2.74
Thompson, 2.62
Horford, 2.56
George, -0.03

PIPM
Towns, 4.76
Lowry, 3.69
Horford, 3.13
George, 2.38
Simmons, 1.9
Thompson, 1.69

[Prez]

So to clarify, I think he makes a big impact on both ends: positively on offense (despite what we saw in that Houston series), and negatively on defense.

I get that his counting stats and efficiency are fantastic, and his RPM and BPM were much better this past year.

It's not just counting stats & efficiency. Like you mentioned by RPM he was elite. Same thing goes for RAPM, net rating, on/off, etc. Pretty much every impact metric imaginable has him as a huge impact player. Each one showed that his offensive value in the RS waaaaay outweighed his defensive limitations.

I will also confess that I watched less Minny games last year than the two years prior (as I couldn't take watching him and Wiggins suck so badly on defense anymore). Having conceded that, how much of his supposed improvement was KAT figuring it out vs. Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson raising the defensive floor of that team, and helping to sort out their end of game issues? I would argue it was mostly Butler and Gibson.

Per nbawowy, KAT had an on court tDrtg of 112.0 last year which would rank about 18th (out of 32 teams) in the NBA, so not great. Take Butler off the court, and that tDrtg drops to 117.2. Take Gibson off the floor and it drops even further to 119.5 (vs. 111.8 Ortg). Now we're talking about one of the worst (maybe THE worst) defense/team in the league. That isn't all on KAT - wolves have several defensively challenged players - but he's the biggest problem IMO, or at least he was two years ago.

Well if we're going the nbawowy route (where we can find various conditions for different on/off numbers that could make almost any player look not so great), the Wolves this year had a -2.7 net rating when Butler was on court without KAT, and a +10.3 net rating when Butler was on court with KAT.

Butler was a monster when healthy this year and definitely their best player, but KAT played a massive role in their success as well. I think you're greatly overstating the negative impact of KAT's defense and understating the positive impact of his offense.

Based on the games I did watch last year, he's clearly improving on that end but he still has a long ways to go. I also think he needs to improve as play maker as well. He gets tunnel vision with the ball way too often. Sometimes we have to dig beyond the advanced stats which don't always paint the most accurate picture, particularly the all-in-one stats.

There's also a point at which we start to dig too deep to try to find numbers that back up pre-formed beliefs on a player. Pretty much all the advanced/impact metrics across the board say the same thing about KAT - he was a monster impact player in the regular season. We don't need to try to find ways to dismiss them in ways we don't with other players.

[bwgood77]

Yeah, I voted Towns here...he's becoming underrated at this point. Lowry would be next for me.

[VanWest82]

There's also a point at which we start to dig too deep to try to find numbers that back up pre-formed beliefs on a player. Pretty much all the advanced/impact metrics across the board say the same thing about KAT - he was a monster impact player in the regular season. We don't need to try to find ways to dismiss them in ways we don't with other players.

You might be right. I might be biased at this point having watched him play a ton. I'm not a fan of his game. I think he plays selfishly sometimes and has poor fundamentals. I also don't think any of those advanced stats do a great job picking up a player's defensive impact (or lack thereof) and as a big KAT's effect on that end is somewhat outsized, particularly when he plays the 5.

There are just so many things he struggles with IMO. He still has no idea when to challenge a shot. He used to challenge everything, and then get beat on putbacks. Then Thibs had him stay with his man, and he'd give up uncontested lay ups. He struggles guarding on the perimeter but appears to be too small to wrestle inside with the big boys. Feels like he makes a lot of mental mistakes out there, or just doesn't give effort. Reminds me a little of Jabari Parker.

Anyways, we agree the publicly available stats suggest he's amazing. I wouldn't rate him as a top 20 player though. Just my opinion. Thanks for the response.

[clyde21]

There's also a point at which we start to dig too deep to try to find numbers that back up pre-formed beliefs on a player. Pretty much all the advanced/impact metrics across the board say the same thing about KAT - he was a monster impact player in the regular season. We don't need to try to find ways to dismiss them in ways we don't with other players.

You might be right. I might be biased at this point having watched him play a ton. I'm not a fan of his game. I think he plays selfishly sometimes and has poor fundamentals. I also don't think any of those advanced stats do a great job picking up a player's defensive impact (or lack thereof) and as a big KAT's effect on that end is somewhat outsized, particularly when he plays the 5.

There are just so many things he struggles with IMO. He still has no idea when to challenge a shot. He used to challenge everything, and then get beat on putbacks. Then Thibs had him stay with his man, and he'd give up uncontested lay ups. He struggles guarding on the perimeter but appears to be too small to wrestle inside with the big boys. Feels like he makes a lot of mental mistakes out there, or just doesn't give effort. Reminds me a little of Jabari Parker.

Anyways, we agree the publicly available stats suggest he's amazing. I wouldn't rate him as a top 20 player though. Just my opinion. Thanks for the response.

You're not gonna find more impactful players than Towns at this point. He's definitely more impactful than guys like Lillard and Irving, and should've been ranked ahead of them quite comfortably.

[iggymcfrack]

There's also a point at which we start to dig too deep to try to find numbers that back up pre-formed beliefs on a player. Pretty much all the advanced/impact metrics across the board say the same thing about KAT - he was a monster impact player in the regular season. We don't need to try to find ways to dismiss them in ways we don't with other players.

You might be right. I might be biased at this point having watched him play a ton. I'm not a fan of his game. I think he plays selfishly sometimes and has poor fundamentals. I also don't think any of those advanced stats do a great job picking up a player's defensive impact (or lack thereof) and as a big KAT's effect on that end is somewhat outsized, particularly when he plays the 5.

There are just so many things he struggles with IMO. He still has no idea when to challenge a shot. He used to challenge everything, and then get beat on putbacks. Then Thibs had him stay with his man, and he'd give up uncontested lay ups. He struggles guarding on the perimeter but appears to be too small to wrestle inside with the big boys. Feels like he makes a lot of mental mistakes out there, or just doesn't give effort. Reminds me a little of Jabari Parker.

Anyways, we agree the publicly available stats suggest he's amazing. I wouldn't rate him as a top 20 player though. Just my opinion. Thanks for the response.

You're not gonna find more impactful players than Towns at this point. He's definitely more impactful than guys like Lillard and Irving, and should've been ranked ahead of them quite comfortably.

Well, technically you’re right because you probably won’t find more impactful players, plural, but there’s still the one. You know the guy who led Toronto to more wins than Golden State last year? The guy who’s been Top 10 in RPM each of the last 3 season? The guy who was 17/5/9 on .737 TS% against Cleveland in last year’s playoffs? Yeah, I’d still take him over the guy who’s just learning how to compete in the postseason.