2018-19 Atlanta Hawks Season Wins Prediction Thread

[jayu70]

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Hmm. Last season we had 9 teams with fewer than 30 wins. This guy has 4 for this season and 2 of those are at 29. I guess everyone is improving?

It was a real tankapalooza last season. You have the 3 perennials: Kings, Suns and Magic. The surprises like Dallas and Memphis and the rebuilders like Hawks, Brooklyn and Chicago.

[ChokeFasncists]

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Hmm. Last season we had 9 teams with fewer than 30 wins. This guy has 4 for this season and 2 of those are at 29. I guess everyone is improving?

Apparently a really good draft, new draft odds next season, the worst teams all added vets. Except for the Magic, lets see if they can trade Vuc.

[94Nuggets]

I bet $100 at the MGM Grand at 1:20 odds that they win the Southeast Division. They'll need around 44 wins.

[Roy Tarpley]

I bet $100 at the MGM Grand at 1:20 odds that they win the Southeast Division. They'll need around 44 wins.

I bet $300 at Westgate at +15000 that they'll win the Southeast. The Wiz and Heat have both averaged around 45 wins over the last several years.

For the Hawks to even get close, they need to start out of the gate fast. The first 10 games are probably the lightest on their schedule so if they can't at least go 5-5, that's a problem. Also, given the imperative to trade away vets at the trade deadline of Feb 7 unless they're competing, I think the Hawks need to be at least sniffing the playoffs, maybe 16-20, by Dec. 31.

Dedmon needs to be healthy by the season start for this to happen. Also, Lin won't be 100% but he at least needs to be in game shape.

[Jamaaliver]

Tweet of the day:

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[macd-gm]

Real good point. Is Kristaps going to be back? If not then they are pretty bad. Orlando also bad. One difference is that those teams have proven coaches but not sure it'll matter that much.

There's also the hornets and nets

[Jamaaliver]

Real good point. Is Kristaps going to be back? If not then they are pretty bad. Orlando also bad. One difference is that those teams have proven coaches but not sure it'll matter that much.

There's also the hornets and nets

Yeah, I do think the experienced coaches will hold an advantage over a newer guy like Lloyd and a staff with 0 HC experience.

Also...organizationally, I don't think we're trying to win at all this season. 15 wins is too few for a coaching staff to survive. But I'd be extremely surprised if this team even matches the 24 victories Bud led us to last season.

I foresee undrafted free agents being signed at midseason yet again to fill our open roster spots. And a ton of DNP-CDs for Prince and Collins come February and March.

(I do hope Brooklyn gets a top-4 pick next summer. Their fanbase has been through enough.)

Spoiler:

Add'l NOTE: I think Kristaps is projected to be back in the latter half of the season. But by that point, I imagine NYK will be in a full tank themselves and just shut him down for the year.

Knicks with Porzingis, Knox, French Frank and Nassir Little could be a potentially elite core should they be so lucky...

[steady]

There is a value in having a throw away year -- particularly when you have young players you want to develop.
Plus the obvious advantages with regard to draft pick

With that said, I agree with those who think that the projections of Hawks as being 30th team are too low.

I don't see the Hawks ending up 30th unless there are injuries or more than usual rookie struggles. etc.

[ChokeFasncists]

(I do hope Brooklyn gets a top-4 pick next summer. Their fanbase has been through enough.)

Tough spot to be in, they've got some good but no great talent, they finally get their pick but it's the new odds, do they tank as hard as possible?

Add'l NOTE: I think Kristaps is projected to be back in the latter half of the season. But by that point, I imagine NYK will be in a full tank themselves and just shut him down for the year.

Knicks with Porzingis, Knox, French Frank and Nassir Little could be a potentially elite core should they be so lucky...

They're saying Mitchell Robinson is real good as well, has Dolan finally matured?

[macd-gm]

I don't mind being 30th if we have 25+ wins and decent at home. If we are sub 20 wins and getting blown out then that'll be pretty boring.

[ChokeFasncists]

I don't mind being 30th if we have 25+ wins and decent at home. If we are sub 20 wins and getting blown out then that'll be pretty boring.

After the post-cap-hike summers, a very good draft class and maybe the new draft odds, looks like the formerly bad teams all have improved quite a bit. Maybe except for the Nets? They finally get their pick back. The Magic still needs a PG.

[HMFFL]

3 Bold Predictions for Tyler Dorsey in 2018-19

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2018/09/16/atlanta-hawks-3-bold-predictions-tyler-dorsey-2018-19/


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[HMFFL]

Podcast Weighs in on Atlanta Hawks Over/Unders

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2018/09/16/game-theory-podcast-weighs-atlanta-hawks-unders/

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[HMFFL]

5 Bold Predictions for John Collins in 2018-19

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2018/09/15/atlanta-hawks-5-bold-predictions-john-collins-2018-19/


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[Jamaaliver]

Over/unders seem to be lowering based on...pre-season play?

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[steady]

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

[b][u]Predictions as of 8/25[
graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
GoodDayLA 32
macd-gm 28
steady 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
Roy Tarpley 24
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 19
Geaux_Hawks 18

‘Average: 25.5 (817/32)

Seems like good time for bump. Last chance to revise predictions

I’m going to adjust by bet to 32

[Roy Tarpley]

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 8/25

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
GoodDayLA 32
macd-gm 28
steady 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
Roy Tarpley 24
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 19
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 25.5 (817/32)

Seems like good time for bump. Last chance to revise predictions

I’m going to adjust my bet to 32

Thanks for bumping. I'll take predictions until Wednesday night. I want to up my prediction given how the Hawks look in preseason but the Collins and Dedmon injuries are tempering my expectations. I'll keep it at 24.

[jayu70]

25 wins.

[Roy Tarpley]

Taking predictions until 10/17, before start of season.

Although the roster is still subject to change, I think it's close enough to ready that we can stop the arm-chair playmaking and weekend warrior jousting and put your +1s where your mouth is. The winner will get a bag of +1s in 2025 and an autographed picture of Jon Koncak and Tree Rollins.

Rules:

- Enter your season win total prediction on this thread. You can change your prediction as many times as you want before the season starts but your last prediction before the start of the season will be the one that counts.

- If you waffle by providing a range of wins (e.g., "Anywhere from 15-30 wins), I will used the average and round up (e.g, 22.5 = 23 wins).

- If you equivocate with a lot of jibber jabber but don't provide a definitive number or range, you will not be included.

Good luck to all!

I will periodically tabulate the predictions throughout the pre-season.

Predictions as of 10/15

graymule 41
sprost 39
cbssports July 20 sportsline 35
GoodDayLA 32
steady 32
macd-gm 28
fivethirtyeight.com CARMELO August 14 early prediction 28
British Sport Book Sky Bet 27
ioeve 27
Bet online.ag 27
ESPN RPM Kevin Pelton 26
birdlives_ma 25
tbhawksfan1 25
jayu70 25
Roy Tarpley 24
Westgate Superbook August 6 24
ATL Boy 23
~Wretch~ 23
Peachtree Hoops Writers panel (10 writers) 23.3
Robo_Claw 22
ESPN Summer Forecast Panel 22
13th Man 21
Jamaaliver 19
Geaux_Hawks 18

Average: 25.6 (846/33)

[jayu70]

New update from 538 based on preseason:

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