Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[payitforward]

Hmmm... a further thought along the same lines. Obviously, the Lakers are all in on winning a title ASAP. Yet, of their 14 guaranteed contracts, 8 of them are rookie contracts. As constructed, I find it hard to see them getting past both Houston & GS.

Per the above, I don't see them taking on John. But I wonder -- would they give us some of their youth for another weapon?

Beal for K C-P, Josh Hart, & one more asset (R1 pick in 2019...?) for example.

That trade would get us under the luxury tax this year & make it possible to do much more next year to reshape & improve the roster. Among other things, IMO Josh Hart is a future star.

We'd be at @$90m w/ 7 guys (Wall, Hart, Porter, Mahinmi, Brown & the two '19 R1 picks). We'd be in a position to extend Satoransky & do the same with Oubre as well. We'd be able to sew up Bryant if he'd shown what we hope he shows. With an MLE player & if Howard returned, that would likely put us somewhere around $125m with 2 roster spots to fill.

Wall / Sato / rookie?
Hart / Brown / rookie?
Porter / Oubre
MLE player? / Porter
Howard / Bryant / Mahinmi

...to be speculative. But, something like that, depending on whose play earns him more time & whose earns him less.

I don't see this trade as possible early in the season, but maybe the scenario would come up near the deadline?

[dckingsfan]

I also wish we could capitalize on the angst in Minnesota...

[pcbothwel]

PIF, I need a premium asset for Beal.
Again, I really think Wall and Beal bounce back this year. If you look at the year he had offensively two years ago with a healthy Wall and combine it with the improvements he's made defensively... Damn. Thats an elite NBA player.

KCP & Ingram is the package I would need from LAL... Hart and a late 1st doesnt do it for me.

[penbeast0]

I also wish we could capitalize on the angst in Minnesota...

Don't give Ernie ideas or we will see Beal and Porter for Wiggins and Dieng.

[dckingsfan]

I also wish we could capitalize on the angst in Minnesota...

Don't give Ernie ideas or we will see Beal and Porter for Wiggins and Dieng.

Ouch...

[payitforward]

PIF, I need a premium asset for Beal.
Again, I really think Wall and Beal bounce back this year. If you look at the year he had offensively two years ago with a healthy Wall and combine it with the improvements he's made defensively... Damn. Thats an elite NBA player.

KCP & Ingram is the package I would need from LAL... Hart and a late 1st doesnt do it for me.

I was suggesting KCP, Hart & a late 1st. Not just Hart & a late 1st. But, maybe I should assume you got that, & you are suggesting that Ingram outweighs Hart & a late 1st in your mind.

Of course, you never know who you get with a late 1st -- Jimmy Butler for example (or... Josh Hart! ), but lets leave that aside....

Ingram just turned 21; he's all upside & potential. There's no doubt he has both those. I'd love to have him, hard not to want to take a chance on a kid w/ his gifts.

OTOH, Josh Hart is a terrific player. He had a great rookie season, & I'll be surprised if he doesn't become one of the best SGs in the NBA. Who does he remind me of? Another late R1 pick, whom I mentioned above.

Josh Hart will help the Lakers win right now. For which reason, who knows but the Lakers might be ok with Ingram instead of Hart.

Might be too late anyway, as the Lakers seem to be trying to trade for Jimmy Butler. They'd be unlikely to go after both Butler & Beal. Plus, if they trade for Butler, they'll likely be trading some of the assets I want for Beal.

On your other point: I agree totally. I see no reason whatever to doubt Brad Beal's ability to "bounce back" this year.

If I think he's likely to be traded, or even that he should be, it's not b/c I doubt his abilities (& he's still young too!). The reason for such a trade comes from other things entirely -- i.e. our salary situation, the tax, etc. Given that, I'm just thinking about what it would be most advantageous to the Wizards to get for him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hmmm... a further thought along the same lines. Obviously, the Lakers are all in on winning a title ASAP. Yet, of their 14 guaranteed contracts, 8 of them are rookie contracts. As constructed, I find it hard to see them getting past both Houston & GS.

Per the above, I don't see them taking on John. But I wonder -- would they give us some of their youth for another weapon?

Beal for K C-P, Josh Hart, & one more asset (R1 pick in 2019...?) for example.

That trade would get us under the luxury tax this year & make it possible to do much more next year to reshape & improve the roster. Among other things, IMO Josh Hart is a future star.

We'd be at @$90m w/ 7 guys (Wall, Hart, Porter, Mahinmi, Brown & the two '19 R1 picks). We'd be in a position to extend Satoransky & do the same with Oubre as well. We'd be able to sew up Bryant if he'd shown what we hope he shows. With an MLE player & if Howard returned, that would likely put us somewhere around $125m with 2 roster spots to fill.

Wall / Sato / rookie?
Hart / Brown / rookie?
Porter / Oubre
MLE player? / Porter
Howard / Bryant / Mahinmi

...to be speculative. But, something like that, depending on whose play earns him more time & whose earns him less.

I don't see this trade as possible early in the season, but maybe the scenario would come up near the deadline?

I perceive JOSH HART TO BE ALREADY BETTER THAN ... Bradley Beal.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hartjo01.html

I would trade Beal for Josh Hart straight up if the salaries/experience were the same. Unlike past years, i won't even try to defend or argue my point.

[dangermouse]

I also wish we could capitalize on the angst in Minnesota...

Don't give Ernie ideas or we will see Beal and Porter for Wiggins and Dieng.

What if its Butler that goes on the market? And the asking price began at Beal or Porter?

[dckingsfan]

I also wish we could capitalize on the angst in Minnesota...

Don't give Ernie ideas or we will see Beal and Porter for Wiggins and Dieng.

What if its Butler that goes on the market? And the asking price began at Beal or Porter?

Would you do Beal for Butler? I would, it would give us a one year window - then he would probably opt out and go elsewhere but we would be out of the luxury tax.

[Rafael122]

If Butler is opting out the Wizards shouldn't give up a ton of assets. In cases like this, the return isn't that great. I mean Indiana did well but a lot of people wrote Oladipo off as overpaid and there wasn't a ton of hype on Sabonis.

A few things on Butler:

1. He will be 30 entering his free agent year
2. A lot, A LOT, of wear and tear on his body thanks to Thibs
3. Was a malcontent on the Bulls team in his final year or so, malcontent in Minnesota. At some point that plays a factor in all of this.

I'd do something like Morris/Smith/Oubre/1st rounder for Butler. That seems low but again, you don't get a big return for a guy entering his walk year.

[Ruzious]

If Butler is opting out the Wizards shouldn't give up a ton of assets. In cases like this, the return isn't that great. I mean Indiana did well but a lot of people wrote Oladipo off as overpaid and there wasn't a ton of hype on Sabonis.

A few things on Butler:

1. He will be 30 entering his free agent year
2. A lot, A LOT, of wear and tear on his body thanks to Thibs
3. Was a malcontent on the Bulls team in his final year or so, malcontent in Minnesota. At some point that plays a factor in all of this.

I'd do something like Morris/Smith/Oubre/1st rounder for Butler. That seems low but again, you don't get a big return for a guy entering his walk year.

I agree with your warnings re Butler and don't see how they could financially keep him and his $20 mil for the 19/20 year in your trade. Remember, Howard's got a player option for 19/20, so we'll have to either sign him for an increase or find someone else to start at center.

[pcbothwel]

If Butler is opting out the Wizards shouldn't give up a ton of assets. In cases like this, the return isn't that great. I mean Indiana did well but a lot of people wrote Oladipo off as overpaid and there wasn't a ton of hype on Sabonis.

A few things on Butler:

1. He will be 30 entering his free agent year
2. A lot, A LOT, of wear and tear on his body thanks to Thibs
3. Was a malcontent on the Bulls team in his final year or so, malcontent in Minnesota. At some point that plays a factor in all of this.

I'd do something like Morris/Smith/Oubre/1st rounder for Butler. That seems low but again, you don't get a big return for a guy entering his walk year.

I agree with your warnings re Butler and don't see how they could financially keep him and his $20 mil for the 19/20 year in your trade. Remember, Howard's got a player option for 19/20, so we'll have to either sign him for an increase or find someone else to start at center.

I'm not interested into any further consolidation of this core. I want better usage/lineups/growth from our current group. Once that ceiling is realized, I prefer to 1) Rebuild by trading at least 2/3 of the core if they dont look competitive, or 2) Retool if they look good by trading 1/3 to cut cost and get cheaper depth.

[Ruzious]

Might as well wait and see where we are at midseason. It would be a shame to just lose Oubre for nothing - which I'm guessing will happen next offseason. Trying to think of multi-year low cost targets for him - Pif talked about Josh Hart in another thread, and he seems like a possibility. If Troy Brown shows good signs in the first half, that makes Oubre expendable.

[Rafael122]

Might as well wait and see where we are at midseason. It would be a shame to just lose Oubre for nothing - which I'm guessing will happen next offseason. Trying to think of multi-year low cost targets for him - Pif talked about Josh Hart in another thread, and he seems like a possibility. If Troy Brown shows good signs in the first half, that makes Oubre expendable.

Brown already has a higher basketball IQ than Oubre, he's not the athletic freak Oubre is but Brown has that 12 year career type of game. I really hope Brooks doesn't pull a Wittman and leaves Brown on the bench. Oubre's play will obviously determine a lot of things, but if Brown steps up, I could easily see Oubre and Mahinmi being packaged at the trade deadline.

[penbeast0]

For all the abuse Brooks gets here as an in game coach, he does have a much better history than Wittman of developing his young talent both in OKC and here. It's his strength (and one reason I was surprised to see so little of Satoransky in the playoffs).

[payitforward]

If Butler is opting out the Wizards shouldn't give up a ton of assets. In cases like this, the return isn't that great. I mean Indiana did well but a lot of people wrote Oladipo off as overpaid and there wasn't a ton of hype on Sabonis.

A few things on Butler:

1. He will be 30 entering his free agent year
2. A lot, A LOT, of wear and tear on his body thanks to Thibs
3. Was a malcontent on the Bulls team in his final year or so, malcontent in Minnesota. At some point that plays a factor in all of this.

I'd do something like Morris/Smith/Oubre/1st rounder for Butler. That seems low but again, you don't get a big return for a guy entering his walk year.

I agree with your warnings re Butler and don't see how they could financially keep him and his $20 mil for the 19/20 year in your trade. Remember, Howard's got a player option for 19/20, so we'll have to either sign him for an increase or find someone else to start at center.

First off, no way that trade "seems low." In fact it is over the top impossible. It adds $3m in salary (the idea is to get UNDER the tax) while leaving us with the need to sign 2 more players. Rafael had a moment's inattention there....

The premise of all this was a trade of Beal. We aren't going to be able to keep all three of Wall/Beal/Porter; how can that not be obvious I wonder? To imagine it's possible requires listing every possible positive assumption & then having them all come true.

For that reason alone, Beal for Butler would be an enormous bargain. We'd be better immediately; whatever you think of Brad there's no question that Jimmy Butler is the better player today, & it's no insult to say it. Plus he gets us $5m closer to getting under the tax line.

If he picks up his option for next year... well, he's still cheaper than Brad. & he can be traded as well. If he doesn't, at least it gives us the flexibility to keep Oubre & Sato, we still have our R1 pick, & we have room to sign at least 1 good player maybe 2.

As to the Paul George trade to OKC, I believe I said from the start that Indiana had done better in the trade than the Thunder. It was obvious.

As to "A lot, A LOT, of wear & tear on (Butler's) body" ... man, you just completely made that up! In his NBA career Jimmy Butler has played 1376 more minutes than Brad Beal.

[payitforward]

... Remember, Howard's got a player option for 19/20, so we'll have to either sign him for an increase or find someone else to start at center.

??

Or, he picks up his option.

[payitforward]

I'm not interested into any further consolidation of this core. I want better usage/lineups/growth from our current group. Once that ceiling is realized, I prefer to 1) Rebuild by trading at least 2/3 of the core if they dont look competitive, or 2) Retool if they look good by trading 1/3 to cut cost and get cheaper depth.

No further consolidation except that you want to trade either 1 or 2 of the 3 guys... Ok, got it.

Players have ceilings. Individuals, not groups. & individuals improve. Of those 3 guys, 1 may improve & 2 get worse. 2 may get better & a third plateau or decline. Or 1 could get better, 1 plateau at his ceiling, & the 3d be worse. Or they all 3 could get better -- as individuals. Or all of them could decline. Or all plateau. As individuals

If Wall & Beal come back strong, but what they do is play as they did 2 years ago, will that not tell you that you are seeing their ceilings?

Brad Beal just turned 25. Doesn't he have to improve rather than plateau? If he plateaus, doesn't that make it likely we are seeing his ceiling? Perhaps the same in Porter's case?

John Wall, otoh, is 28. John Wall is entering his 9th NBA season; he's a veteran not a developing young player. Plus, he's played a lot... 4000 more minutes than Jimmy Butler, the guy who's supposed to have all that "wear and tear" on his body.

I'm not saying he can't have a little better year than 2 years ago. Of course he can. Or not quite as good; that can happen too. But, significant development? Hey, I don't have a crystall ball. But, Wall's game is based on athleticism; isn't he more likely to start declining some time in the next couple of years than to become meaningfully better than he already is?

Edit: Actually, I'm making it sound like there's a bigger difference between our POV than there really is. The main difference is that I sort of think I've already seen -- or seen enough of -- what you seem to feel you still need to see this season.

IOW, I think we could have quite a good regular season, perhaps our best in many decades. But I still can't see us getting out of R2 of the playoffs -- no matter how many positive pieces of good fortune we have. To me, this far into building a generation of a team, if you can't do that it's time to overhaul.

But... I could be wrong -- no, better, I hope I'm wrong! But... for the moment I can't convince myself I am.

[Ruzious]

... Remember, Howard's got a player option for 19/20, so we'll have to either sign him for an increase or find someone else to start at center.

??

Or, he picks up his option.

Sounds like someone needs more sleep. My point was that we need to reserve some salary for an adequate starting center next season - in addition to paying the big 3, so there's no way we could add Butler without giving up one of the big 3.

[Ruzious]

I'm not interested into any further consolidation of this core. I want better usage/lineups/growth from our current group. Once that ceiling is realized, I prefer to 1) Rebuild by trading at least 2/3 of the core if they dont look competitive, or 2) Retool if they look good by trading 1/3 to cut cost and get cheaper depth.

No further consolidation except that you want to trade either 1 or 2 of the 3 guys... Ok, got it.

Players have ceilings. Individuals, not groups. & individuals improve. Of those 3 guys, 1 may improve & 2 get worse. 2 may get better & a third plateau or decline. Or 1 could get better, 1 plateau at his ceiling, & the 3d be worse. Or they all 3 could get better -- as individuals. Or all of them could decline. Or all plateau. As individuals

If Wall & Beal come back strong, but what they do is play as they did 2 years ago, will that not tell you that you are seeing their ceilings?

Brad Beal just turned 25. Doesn't he have to improve rather than plateau? If he plateaus, doesn't that make it likely we are seeing his ceiling? Perhaps the same in Porter's case?

John Wall, otoh, is 28. John Wall is entering his 9th NBA season; he's a veteran not a developing young player. Plus, he's played a lot... 4000 more minutes than Jimmy Butler, the guy who's supposed to have all that "wear and tear" on his body.

I'm not saying he can't have a little better year than 2 years ago. Of course he can. Or not quite as good; that can happen too. But, significant development? Hey, I don't have a crystall ball. But, Wall's game is based on athleticism; isn't he more likely to start declining some time in the next couple of years than to become meaningfully better than he already is?

You keep using minutes as your basis for wear and tear, but injuries are more important to a player's deterioration. Butler's played 70 games twice in his career. He's also never won anything. Not to be too rough on you, but I remember years ago when you said the Wiz shouldn't acquire LaMarcus Aldridge when he was 27 because you said he' was too close to 30. Butler's 29 - one step from an NBA nursing home.