2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[dagger]

We ought to have pretty competitive farm teams top to bottom next season. Lot of good talent, even those who will top out before getting to the majors. A lot of talent to create good internal competition.

You'll have a few very good players moving up to Buffalo in all likelihood - Zeuch, Harris, Bergen, Biggio, Bichette, Ramirez - to join some of the guys on the current 40 man roster who will return to Buffalo, like Davis, McGuire, etc. From Dunedin, NH gets Palacios - he already is on the roster, brought up just for the playoffs and by all accounts acquitted himself well. Orozco and Castillo who shared the FSL batting title. Kevin Smith. Clemons. Maybe Spanberger. Murphy and maybe Pearson. Guys like Young, Noda and Taylor moving to DUN. The Bluefield team supplying some interesting talent to Lansing.

[Lateral Quicks]

Alejandro Kirk had a hell of a year. The bat looks extremely impressive; I wonder how his work behind the plate stacks up. If he keeps hitting like he did this year he could come quick.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kirk--000ale

[manjusaka]

Some interesting stats from Chavez Young

April-June 299PA
8.4% BB 21.1% SO 18SB 9CS 67%

July-Sept 235PA
14% BB 15.7% SO 26SB 4CS 87%


AVG/BABIP/ISO were fairly similar throughout the season, but plate-diciplent and base running showed improvements. It appears that Jays are playing slow with Chavez Young and refining the fundamentals. Bat speed looks decent. Maybe he still has some untapped talents.

Watch on YouTube

[dagger]

Young was a rarity in the minors : more than 50 XBH and 40 steals. And he's a plus defender.

[Al_Oliver]

OF Chavez Young
Current Assignment: Class A Lansing Lugnuts (Blue Jays, Midwest League)
Ht/Wt: 6-0/195 lbs. B/T: S/R DOB: July 8, 1997
Season Stats: 434 AB, .286/.355/.447, 124 H, 80 R, 32 2B, 8 HR, 55 RBI

Young’s improving instincts at the plate, mixed with a Josh Donaldson-like leg kick, have Young leading Lansing this season in runs, hits, doubles and triples, as well as sitting third in home runs and second in RBIs overall.

https://theathletic.com/485834/2018/08/23/minor-league-matters-four-prospects-who-have-jumped-onto-the-radar-this-season/

Good call by Emily Waldon from the Athletic here...

[dagger]

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[polo007]

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[polo007]

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins weighs in on the team's prospect pool.

https://www.tsn.ca/talent/atkins-weighs-in-on-blue-jays-prospect-pool-1.1181677

After a few years of sitting in the bottom half of the league in terms of minor-league systems, the Jays are now easily a consensus top-five group, and some, including revered prospect publication Baseball America, believe they’re in the top three.

The Blue Jays’ own internal system ranking, which forecasts future WAR, has placed them fourth in all of baseball, president and CEO Mark Shapiro said recently.

No matter how subjective you find farm-system rankings, there’s no arguing the objective: There’s enough talent on the way to provide hope, even when you factor in knowing it won’t all pan out as expected.

With MiLB seasons wrapped up earlier this month, we’ve combed through all the affiliates to put together a 25-man roster of 2018 standouts, and then asked Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins to weigh in on the entire group.

These aren’t necessarily the best prospects — there’s a top 20 list attached at the bottom for that — just the best individual seasons put together by players who aren’t considered organizational filler.

[BigLeagueChew]

Willians Astudillo Hasn’t Struck Out in 55 Plate Appearances
by Jeff Sullivan

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/willians-astudillo-hasnt-struck-out-in-55-plate-appearances/

[Skin Blues]

"Five clubs that look poised to turn things around in a hurry"

Not a lot of insight in it; basically just "Best farm systems for teams that were bad this year". I think it's pretty clear that almost all of our best prospects should be up at some point in 2019, so 2020 is probably more realistic for making a playoff run.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Not a lot of insight in it; basically just "Best farm systems for teams that were bad this year". I think it's pretty clear that almost all of our best prospects should be up at some point in 2019, so 2020 is probably more realistic for making a playoff run.

The best ones in the upper minors, sure. The Jays have a significant chunk of their best prospects in the lower minors, though. Guys like Pearson, Smith, Pardinho, Groshans, Martinez, Kloffenstein, and maybe even Biggio won't be up in 2019. I don't think the Jays need to scorch the earth or anything, but going for a more gradual improvement is really what I'm hoping to see. If they hold steady, they should be poised to have some significant additions every year for the foreseeable future thanks to the farm.

[Skin Blues]

Not a lot of insight in it; basically just "Best farm systems for teams that were bad this year". I think it's pretty clear that almost all of our best prospects should be up at some point in 2019, so 2020 is probably more realistic for making a playoff run.

The best ones in the upper minors, sure. The Jays have a significant chunk of their best prospects in the lower minors, though. Guys like Pearson, Smith, Pardinho, Groshans, Martinez, Kloffenstein, and maybe even Biggio won't be up in 2019. I don't think the Jays need to scorch the earth or anything, but going for a more gradual improvement is really what I'm hoping to see. If they hold steady, they should be poised to have some significant additions every year for the foreseeable future thanks to the farm.

If we were to do a weighted average of our prospect value, something like 95% of it would be due up in 2019. Hell, Vlad/Bo/Jansen/Alford alone comprise like 90% of the value of our farm system. The only significant prospect not due up is Kevin Smith. Pearson has big upside, sure, but also has huge injury concerns, even relative to other pitchers.

[Schad]

The 2020 playoff run still strikes me as an awful idea. Beyond the bit where the Yankees and Red Sox will likely still be excellent then (Boston's payroll woes will really become a drag on their performance in 2021, with Betts hitting free agency), it'll be exceedingly difficult to assemble a complete team without either spunking cash on old guys -- which will bite us very shortly thereafter when the youngsters hit arb eligibility -- or trading away prospect capital. There's no reason not to be patient, beyond the short attention span of fans.

[Skin Blues]

The 2020 playoff run still strikes me as an awful idea. Beyond the bit where the Yankees and Red Sox will likely still be excellent then (Boston's payroll woes will really become a drag on their performance in 2021, with Betts hitting free agency), it'll be exceedingly difficult to assemble a complete team without either spunking cash on old guys -- which will bite us very shortly thereafter when the youngsters hit arb eligibility -- or trading away prospect capital. There's no reason not to be patient, beyond the short attention span of fans.

We're primed to compete in 2020. And despite your wishes, we will probably even be pretty good in 2019. And none of it relies on spending money on "old guys".

Looking forward to 2020: every position is filled with a reasonably good starter, at minimum, as well as competent backups, and lots of upside guys sprinkled in. The rotation is thin but between Borucki / Stroman / SRF / Paulino / Sanchez / Pannone/Pearson, we should be OK there. Maybe we take a flier on a vet or two, to eat up innings. That'll cost what, $20M or so? There's no need, and no real likelihood, of spending money on a bunch of "old guys". Ideally the Yankees wouldn't be as good as they are, as it makes going for the division tough. But to forgo making a playoff run for 3+ years just because one other team is projected to be better is pretty ridiculous, IMO.

[I_Like_Dirt]

If we were to do a weighted average of our prospect value, something like 95% of it would be due up in 2019. Hell, Vlad/Bo/Jansen/Alford alone comprise like 90% of the value of our farm system. The only significant prospect not due up is Kevin Smith. Pearson has big upside, sure, but also has huge injury concerns, even relative to other pitchers.

Alford... I'm not sold on him yet. Just because a lot of those other guys aren't as far along yet doesn't mean they won't have significant value in a year or two. That 95% number? To me that represents more the value of Vlad and Bo specifically over anyone else at this point. And just because Vlad and Bo will both likely be called up at some point next season doesn't mea it's immediately time to start throwing everything at an immediate playoff run. Those are the kinds of the decisions that almost always backfire in the league as it stands right now.

Beyond that, though, Pearson does have injury concerns, but he's already ranked ahead of Alford, and Pardinho, Groshans, and Biggio are all quality prospects who will start making those top 100 lists if they continue producing. Martinez was a pretty big fish in international free agency this offseason, and he and Kloffenstein haven't really had an opportunity to prove where they belong at this point. So yeah, Bo and Vlad are the headliners. Figuring out who the other good players will be from the bunch is a guessing game, but some of them will make it and being a little patient is hardly the worst thing in the world when we're talking about potentially mortgaging the Jays' ability to compete when Bo and Vlad are in their mid-20s to try and compete as much as possible in their first full seasons in the league.

[Skin Blues]

If we were to do a weighted average of our prospect value, something like 95% of it would be due up in 2019. Hell, Vlad/Bo/Jansen/Alford alone comprise like 90% of the value of our farm system. The only significant prospect not due up is Kevin Smith. Pearson has big upside, sure, but also has huge injury concerns, even relative to other pitchers.

Alford... I'm not sold on him yet. Just because a lot of those other guys aren't as far along yet doesn't mean they won't have significant value in a year or two. That 95% number? To me that represents more the value of Vlad and Bo specifically over anyone else at this point. And just because Vlad and Bo will both likely be called up at some point next season doesn't mea it's immediately time to start throwing everything at an immediate playoff run. Those are the kinds of the decisions that almost always backfire in the league as it stands right now.

Beyond that, though, Pearson does have injury concerns, but he's already ranked ahead of Alford, and Pardinho, Groshans, and Biggio are all quality prospects who will start making those top 100 lists if they continue producing. Martinez was a pretty big fish in international free agency this offseason, and he and Kloffenstein haven't really had an opportunity to prove where they belong at this point. So yeah, Bo and Vlad are the headliners. Figuring out who the other good players will be from the bunch is a guessing game, but some of them will make it and being a little patient is hardly the worst thing in the world when we're talking about potentially mortgaging the Jays' ability to compete when Bo and Vlad are in their mid-20s to try and compete as much as possible in their first full seasons in the league.

I'm not sold on Alford either, but the publications label him a 55 FV prospect. He's a high variance guy. Could be great, could flop. His defense provides a reasonable floor, though.

As for going all-in in 2019, definitely not. I don't think it's "time to start throwing everything at an immediate playoff run". 2020 I think will be year 1 of the next string of good Jays teams but it'll be mostly home-grown guys leading that era, and we wont' have to trade our long-term prospects or load up on expensive free agents.

And yeah, 95% was a hyperbole, I was just throwing out a number. The actual number is 77% as far as our top 10 prospects go, using present day values based on their current FV grades. I don't know where that puts us among other teams, but we're pretty top-heavy as far as prospects go and almost all of those top guys are ready within a year. Doesn't really make sense to put competitiveness on hold for 3 years and lose 2 years of service time on everybody else just to wait for Kevin Smith's arrival and see how Pearson's arm holds up.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

We're primed to compete in 2020. And despite your wishes, we will probably even be pretty good in 2019. And none of it relies on spending money on "old guys".

Looking forward to 2020: every position is filled with a reasonably good starter, at minimum, as well as competent backups, and lots of upside guys sprinkled in. The rotation is thin but between Borucki / Stroman / SRF / Paulino / Sanchez / Pannone/Pearson, we should be OK there. Maybe we take a flier on a vet or two, to eat up innings. That'll cost what, $20M or so? There's no need, and no real likelihood, of spending money on a bunch of "old guys". Ideally the Yankees wouldn't be as good as they are, as it makes going for the division tough. But to forgo making a playoff run for 3+ years just because one other team is projected to be better is pretty ridiculous, IMO.

It takes an awful lot of squinting to see a good rotation there, and to get to 'good starter at every position' from our current position of 'almost no good starters at any position' is a bit of a stretch; I mean, if we're counting on all of the second-tier guys to pan out instantly, we're going to be really disappointed.

We aren't forgoing a playoff run. We're forgoing pretending that "if X + Y + Z goes right for us, and dysentery sweeps through Boston, and New York gets hit by a meteor" equates to being a contender.

[bluerap23]

We're primed to compete in 2020. And despite your wishes, we will probably even be pretty good in 2019. And none of it relies on spending money on "old guys".

Looking forward to 2020: every position is filled with a reasonably good starter, at minimum, as well as competent backups, and lots of upside guys sprinkled in. The rotation is thin but between Borucki / Stroman / SRF / Paulino / Sanchez / Pannone/Pearson, we should be OK there. Maybe we take a flier on a vet or two, to eat up innings. That'll cost what, $20M or so? There's no need, and no real likelihood, of spending money on a bunch of "old guys". Ideally the Yankees wouldn't be as good as they are, as it makes going for the division tough. But to forgo making a playoff run for 3+ years just because one other team is projected to be better is pretty ridiculous, IMO.

It takes an awful lot of squinting to see a good rotation there, and to get to 'good starter at every position' from our current position of 'almost no good starters at any position' is a bit of a stretch; I mean, if we're counting on all of the second-tier guys to pan out instantly, we're going to be really disappointed.

We aren't forgoing a playoff run. We're forgoing pretending that "if X + Y + Z goes right for us, and dysentery sweeps through Boston, and New York gets hit by a meteor" equates to being a contender.

If by "we" you mean Blue Jay management, I'm not so sure. They did a pretty good job of squinting this year.

[Schad]

If by "we" you mean Blue Jay management, I'm not so sure. They did a pretty good job of squinting this year.

Yeah. I'm hoping that they learn something from this debacle, but that might be too much to ask.