Nuggets' Predictions

[NuggetsWY]

Can the Nuggets win 50+ games? Let's say they win just 21 road games, that's 21-20 on the road. That means they need to go 29-12 at home. That's just to make 50 wins.

Who beats them in the Northwest Division?
Portland?
OKC?
Utah?
Minnesota?

[youngthegiant]

I'm just gonna put my predictions here. I have Denver finishing with 54 wins. Jokic will make his first all-star game averaging 21,10, and 7. Jamal Murray's scoring will shoot up to 21 ppg. Harris will remain relatively the same with maybe a slight offensive dip in scoring. He will have another highly efficient season. Will Barton will average 17, 5 and 5. Millsap will take a step back offensively but will help us defensively.

[THE J0KER]

Here is my prediction about Nuggets 2018-19 season from another thread here

BTW, here is Denver Nuggets 2018-19 full schedule:

Spoiler:

1. Denver Nuggets @LA Clippers (Wed, Oct17)
2. Phoenix Suns @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Oct20)
3. Golden State Warriors @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Oct21)
4. Sacramento Kings @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Oct23)
5. Denver Nuggets @Los Angeles Lakers (Thu, Oct25)
6. New Orleans Pelicans @Denver Nuggets (Mon, Oct29)
7. Denver Nuggets @Chicago Bulls (Wed, Oct31)

8. Denver Nuggets @Cleveland Cavaliers (Thu, Nov1)
9. Utah Jazz @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Nov3)
10. Boston Celtics @Denver Nuggets (Mon, Nov5)
11. Denver Nuggets @Memphis Grizzlies (Wed, Nov7)
12. Brooklyn Nets @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Nov9)
13. Milwaukee Bucks @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Nov11)
14. Houston Rockets @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Nov13)
15. Atlanta Hawks @Denver Nuggets (Thu, Nov15)
16. Denver Nuggets @New Orleans Pelicans (Sat, Nov17)
17. Denver Nuggets @Milwaukee Bucks (Mon, Nov19)
18. Denver Nuggets @Minnesota Timberwolves (Wed, Nov21)
19. Orlando Magic @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Nov23)
20. Denver Nuggets @Oklahoma City Thunder (Sat, Nov24)
21. Los Angeles Lakers @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Nov27)
22. Denver Nuggets @Portland Trail Blazers (Fri, Nov30)

23. Denver Nuggets @Toronto Raptors (Mon, Dec3)
24. Denver Nuggets @Orlando Magic (Wed, Dec5)
25. Denver Nuggets @Charlotte Hornets (Fri, Dec7)
26. Denver Nuggets @Atlanta Hawks (Sat, Dec8)
27. Memphis Grizzlies @Denver Nuggets (Mon, Dec10)
28. Oklahoma City Thunder @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Dec14)
29. Toronto Raptors @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Dec16)
30. Dallas Mavericks @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Dec18)
31. Denver Nuggets @LA Clippers (Sat, Dec22)
32. Denver Nuggets @San Antonio Spurs (Wed, Dec26)
33. San Antonio Spurs @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Dec28)
34. Denver Nuggets @Phoenix Suns (Sat, Dec29)

35. New York Knicks @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Jan1)
36. Denver Nuggets @Sacramento Kings (Thu, Jan3)
37. Charlotte Hornets @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Jan5)
38. Denver Nuggets @Houston Rockets (Mon, Jan7)
39. Denver Nuggets @Miami Heat (Tue, Jan8)
40. LA Clippers @Denver Nuggets (Thu, Jan10)
41. Denver Nuggets @Phoenix Suns (Sat, Jan12)
42. Portland Trail Blazers @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Jan13)
43. Golden State Warriors @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Jan15)
44. Chicago Bulls @Denver Nuggets (Thu, Jan17)
45. Cleveland Cavaliers @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Jan19)
46. Denver Nuggets @Utah Jazz (Wed, Jan23)
47. Phoenix Suns @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Jan25)
48. Philadelphia 76ers @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Jan26)
49. Denver Nuggets @Memphis Grizzlies (Mon, Jan28)
50. Denver Nuggets @New Orleans Pelicans (Wed, Jan30)

51. Houston Rockets @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Feb1)
52. Denver Nuggets @Minnesota Timberwolves (Sat, Feb2)
53. Denver Nuggets @Detroit Pistons (Mon, Feb4)
54. Denver Nuggets @Brooklyn Nets (Wed, Feb6)
55. Denver Nuggets @Philadelphia 76ers (Fri, Feb8)
56. Miami Heat @Denver Nuggets (Mon, Feb11)
57. Sacramento Kings @Denver Nuggets (Wed, Feb13)
58. Denver Nuggets @Dallas Mavericks (Fri, Feb22)
59. LA Clippers @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Feb24)
60. Oklahoma City Thunder @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Feb26)
61. Utah Jazz @Denver Nuggets (Thu, Feb28)

62. New Orleans Pelicans @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Mar2)
63. Denver Nuggets @San Antonio Spurs (Mon, Mar4)
64. Denver Nuggets @Los Angeles Lakers (Wed, Mar6)
65. Denver Nuggets @Golden State Warriors (Fri, Mar8)
66. Minnesota Timberwolves @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Mar12)
67. Dallas Mavericks @Denver Nuggets (Thu, Mar14)
68. Indiana Pacers @Denver Nuggets (Sat, Mar16)
69. Denver Nuggets @Boston Celtics (Mon, Mar18)
70. Denver Nuggets @Washington Wizards (Thu, Mar21)
71. Denver Nuggets @New York Knicks (Fri, Mar22)
72. Denver Nuggets @Indiana Pacers (Sun, Mar24)
73. Detroit Pistons @Denver Nuggets (Tue, Mar26)
74. Denver Nuggets @Houston Rockets (Thu, Mar28)
75. Denver Nuggets @Oklahoma City Thunder (Fri, Mar29)
76. Washington Wizards @Denver Nuggets (Sun, Mar31)

77. Denver Nuggets @Golden State Warriors (Tue, Apr2)
78. San Antonio Spurs @Denver Nuggets (Wed, Apr3)
79. Portland Trail Blazers @Denver Nuggets (Fri, Apr5)
80. Denver Nuggets @Portland Trail Blazers (Sun, Apr7)
81. Denver Nuggets @Utah Jazz (Tue, Apr9)
82. Minnesota Timberwolves @Denver Nuggets (Wed, Apr10)

My projections:
October: 4-3
November: 9-6
December: 8-4
January: 11-5
February: 8-3
March: 7-8
April: 3-3
OVERALL: 50-32

50 wins are our realistic target, but except injuries, there is another thing which can stop us - slow start. Our schedule is extremely unbalanced with horror finish, so we need 4th-5th best record in the league (#3 on West) before all-star break to reach TOP6 seed on the West and escape GSW and HOU in the 1st round of the playoff.

But more than W/L record is important seeds status in Western Conference playoff. Possible scenarios are
#2 - The Miracle (probably request long-term Harden injury)
#3#4 - The Perfect Season (home advantage in PO 1st round)
#5#6 - Most Realistic (with not bad chances to reach PO 2nd round)
#7#8 - Step Forward (finally playoff after 5 years)
#9#10 - Disaster (once again, so close but so far, but this time no excuses)
#11+ - Lottery (should be possible only with several big injuries)

We can even reach over 50 wins if at least 3-4 out of this 10 possible things happen:
- BIG4 starters to miss less than 40 games together (67 last season)
- Not bottom-10 Defensive Rating in the league
- Jokic 20+10+7+ season
- Murray 20+4+4+ season
- I.Thomas TOP3 contender for the 6th-Man award
- Porter Jr playing at least since February and finish into the all-rookie team
- Juancho serious breakthrough
- Lyles around 20-10 numbers per 36 minutes
- An elite new coach before ASG
- Bold unexpected X-Factor

[TunaFish]

53 wins. I was born on the fifth day of March!

[skywalker33]

I’m still in with 52 wins and 4th seed. Sure, some teams like the Lakers with LBJ got “better” but do they have the chemistry and continuity we have ? Probably not. Getting Millsap back for a full season, adding IT to energize the bench and removing Chandlers lacksidasical efforts will help make this a much stronger team IMO

[THE J0KER]

I see Lakers as 3rd most dangerous opponent in Western playoffs, but I can't see them #3 in the regular season because LeBron will not play on max before playoff and youngsters Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, Hart, which still improving will not be so good in 2018 like in 2019. #3 in the regular season probably will be Oklahoma, or even Denver (52+ wins probably would be enough for #3 if we look how close are 3-10 teams).

[Powder Blue]

I'd like to see the health of the squad a week or two into camp before making any predictions....Ideally Milsap's wrist is 100% and IT is able to see the court.

I'll also have to factor in if Malone tries to install another offense that doesn't feature Jokic, that's been the case the past few years

[NuggetsWY]

53 wins. I was born on the fifth day of March!

I was doing some calculations and if we beat the bottom teams at both home & away. If we beat the teams that are roughly even with us at home games and lose those away games. If we lose to those few teams at the top of the league - both home & away. We could win 53-57 games.

Now, who believes the Nuggets can play consistently against the bad teams? And against the moderate teams? And maybe sneak a few games against the best teams?

[THE J0KER]

I can't see Malone repeating same mistakes with Jokic in the first part of the season the third year in the row, nor so often cheap loses vs weak teams in "must win" games.

After signing max contract, Jokic is now officially Denver franchise player, so I expect Malone treatment to Jokic now will be same he had with Cousins in Sacramento. And also, Malone actually has no challenge now how to use Jokic to make mistake once again. Two years ago he has a challenge of how to use Jokic and Nurkic which is solved with Nurk trade, last season challenge is how to use Jokic and Millsap, or how to use Jokic and Plumlee when Millsap is injured. Malone learned it on the harder way in the 2nd half of the season, but it is solved. Frontcourt rotation Jokic-Millsap with Plumlee-Lyles backup is the same from the finish of the last season when everything worked well. If there is fear of Malone finding the wrong formula, for me it is Murray-Thomas case. Malone should not be afraid to put both often on the court with Murray playing SG, and should not use this season Barton as a guard, which will unnecessarily take minutes from Murray-Harris-Thomas rotation.

Speaking about far too much loses last season against bad teams, even worst ones, it is not only Malone fault. Such things always happen to very young teams. We are still a very young team, but a year older than last season. Also, our most experienced player Millsap missed more than half of the season, and we added another experienced player this season which will take an important role, and IT is well known as an elite closer and man for clutch moments. But there is still one very bad thing from the last season which I think we will repeat once again. Last season Denver was 4th best home team in the league, but just 19th away. With 15-26 record on the road, we are just two wins better than Brooklyn or Sacramento last season, no way we will be that bad again, but the big gap will stay most likely. I expect to see Denver once again TOP5 team on the home, but somewhere #11-#15 on the road.

[THE J0KER]

An interesting statistical analysis about last season home advantage in all four USA major leagues. Guess which franchise is number one?


https://www.thesportster.com/news/denver-nuggets-best-home-advantage/

[Powder Blue]

Stats above are really interesting, Colorado teams, in general, are very high up for each league

[skywalker33]

Does it seem strange to anyone else we play the Lakers back to back opponents both in California ?? Is it just to gauge the playoff competition or see where we match up with them by position ?

[THE J0KER]

https://hoopshype.com/2018/09/27/denver-nuggets-nba-season-preview/

Denver is rated #6 on West by hoopshype.com site, which is OK to me. #6 spot means not only 2019 playoff, but also some chances to reach 2nd round because Golden State or Houston will not be our 1st round opponent.

I repeat our regular season scenarios, from worst to the best:
#9-#10: Absolute disaster! Especially if the third season in the row we will be just one win away from playoff
#11-#15: Disaster, but not so big. We will get a high lottery pick, and Malone will be fired for sure
#7-#8: Well done! First playoff appearance since 2013
#5-#6: Great! First playoff appearance since 2013, with some chances to reach 2nd round
#3-#4: Best case scenario. Home court advantage in the 1st round of playoff
#1-#2: Too good to be true

[NuggetsWY]

Instead of rankings, I'll look at wins.

57-60 is doable if all goes perfectly - but is unlikely
51-56 is reachable if Jokic touches the ball enough
50 is my over/under and I'm betting on over (if I actually bet)
46-49 better mean two major injuries or Malone should be fired
Under 46 means Malone should be fired no matter what excuses are available.

[NuggetsWY]

Interesting projection for the Nuggets - #11 in the league!

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/10/6/17943754/best-worst-case-nuggets

[TunaFish]

53 wins. I was born on the fifth day of March!

Damn, missed by one and glad I did. Looks like this board generally was right about how well we expected the Nuggets' would do.

[THE J0KER]

53 wins. I was born on the fifth day of March!

If we are so good in predictions of Denver Nuggets regular season before start of the 2018-19 season, let's try the same with a 2019 playoff! Once we are not in Golden State half, and next most dangerous WC team Houston is also in the opposite half, my expectations clearly goes to Western Conference final, where I expecting at least one win, since Boogie is injured. But it will not be easy road, we are already close to playoff death vs Spurs when they make break already in the game#1 and have +19 lead in the 2nd half of the game#2 (also in Denver).

But if we survive Spurs (break is back!) where we are favorites to win that series once again now, it will not be so easy vs Portland or Oklahoma for sure. Blazers after McCollum comeback was once again an elite team, especially because best player Llilard playing his career best and latest acquisition Kanter with double-double average proved that he can offensively replace miss of Nurkic. And Oklahoma is a team with elite defense and two TOP10 stars. But Denver is better, deeper, talented, than these three opponents, and will have home court advantage, which is very important thing when you are team with NBA best record at home. Lack of playoff experience is the biggest issue for our team and coach, but after every next game that issue is going to be with less influence, so after several nightmares in opening 3 games, I really liked how team played in 4th game, and how Malone managed rotations.

[psimanic1]

So, if we win against Spurs we are going against the team that won only the game we've let them win this year? That shouldn't be a problem, especially because if we beat Spurs, it means we are now kind off better than in RS, with comeback and stuff...

[NuggetsWY]

It sure looks like beating the Spurs will require seven games.
We matchup well against OKC or Portland but truthfully, I expect that series to also go seven games with the Nuggets winning.

Golden State? I would hope we could win at least two games but we matchup as well as anybody, so ... maybe ...
Houston? We've beaten them but we don't play Harden well, my expectation would be at least two wins unless somehow we find a coach that can teach defense overnight.