Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 2

[Michael Lucky]

Are they playing 40 or 48 minutes against Chinese?

I predict first game for Doncic will be 22 minutes of playing time and he will score minus two points (dunk on the wrong side).

It's part of the NBA preseason schedule so it would have to be 48 minutes.

[SOUNDCHASER]

I would think we see a lot more of the young guys than in the other games we play during preseason. The vets are probably concentrating on sight seeing over there.

Don DSJ Ray Kostas Brunson and Ryan should all play a lot of minutes. Wes Jordan Powell DFS Mejri and Kleber need to be ready if we need them but this is a game against Chinese Ducks so lets rest the teams vets and play the youngsters.

[J_T]

On his “Open Floor” Podcast for Sports Illustrated, NBA analyst Andrew Sharp recently compared Dallas Mavericks rookie Luka Doncic to a 7-11 employee. Sharp picked on the 19-year-old Mavs guard’s “non-NBA” physique, and used a pretty funny metaphor to belabor his point.

Good one...

[XTraderXL]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

[arkuo]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

Well you can look at it from another angle. If defenses collapse on Luka and stick to him like glue, that leaves guys like DSJ, Wes Matthews, Barnes and Deandre open.

[XTraderXL]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

Well you can look at it from another angle. If defenses collapse on Luka and stick to him like glue, that leaves guys like DSJ, Wes Matthews, Barnes and Deandre open.

They wont collapse because he cant get by anyone. They will be switching everything once they see he can not blow by bigs. And with all those dribbles he will just get himself tired even more. The only thing NBA defendersw will have to do is to be aggressive and not let him have too much space to get his shot off. He is to slow to get past wing defenders consistently and aggressive defense will take the ball out of his hands.

I really hope he trims down which should help with his agility and explosiveness.

[J_T]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

Well you can look at it from another angle. If defenses collapse on Luka and stick to him like glue, that leaves guys like DSJ, Wes Matthews, Barnes and Deandre open.

They wont collapse because he cant get by anyone. They will be switching everything once they see he can not blow by bigs. And with all those dribbles he will just get himself tired even more. The only thing NBA defendersw will have to do is to be aggressive and not let him have too much space to get his shot off. He is to slow to get past wing defenders consistently and aggressive defense will take the ball out of his hands.

I really hope he trims down which should help with his agility and explosiveness.

You are way too pessimistic. What is wrong with moves exactly? Why is it such a problem that he is "making moves"? If all he did was making moves and getting past defenders, why would that be an issue?

I've seen this being mentioned dozens of times and I just don't get the dismissive attitude.

[XTraderXL]

Well you can look at it from another angle. If defenses collapse on Luka and stick to him like glue, that leaves guys like DSJ, Wes Matthews, Barnes and Deandre open.

They wont collapse because he cant get by anyone. They will be switching everything once they see he can not blow by bigs. And with all those dribbles he will just get himself tired even more. The only thing NBA defendersw will have to do is to be aggressive and not let him have too much space to get his shot off. He is to slow to get past wing defenders consistently and aggressive defense will take the ball out of his hands.

I really hope he trims down which should help with his agility and explosiveness.

You are way too pessimistic. What is wrong with moves exactly? Why is it such a problem that he is "making moves"? If all he did was making moves and getting past defenders, why would that be an issue?

I've seen this being mentioned dozens of times and I just don't get the dismissive attitude.

The problem is that these moves only work with bigs who are not on NBA level and even then they do not work consistently. Just look at his finishing around the rim. He never gets an easy finish. Even against Hamilton he had to take a very tough shot. He hit it yesterday but thats a low % shot. These moves will not work against wing defenders. Even yesterday we saw what happened when he tried to get by the Ducks guards. He couldnt get by any of them , lost the ball once while dribbling and this was against a team that Euroleague teams would beat by 40+.

I find myself more and more agreeing with threep0inter who has been saying this for 2 years. I expected Luka to improve on his biggest minuses and thats why I disagreed with him but I see now that it was just my bias talking. Should have just taken the evidence for what it was and go with that instead of being subjective.

There is still time for him to get better at these things but for right now, he is just not going to be as effective as most think. His ceiling is way lower if he can not at least be a decent slasher. He is like Simmons in a way, Simmons can not shoot, Luka can not slash.

[Archx]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

I had same concerns and i would even agree with you to a certain point BUT you are forgetting that this is not Real Madrid anymore. It's the NBA and the Mavs with much more athletic players than what RM had or has. You can clearly see the difference in the system as well. A lot more slashing and cutting to the basket plus there are other guys who can create the offense for Luka.
And the guy who played center for Ducks used to be in the NBA and Luka was toying with him. I would also say he was much stronger than that guy.

We all know he needs to get into a proper NBA shape and get some muscles on those arms and legs but for starters i think he'll be just fine. Well as long as Wesley Matthews doesn't think he is a freaking Kobe Bryant and tries to iso everything.

[XTraderXL]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

I had same concerns and i would even agree with you to a certain point BUT you are forgetting that this is not Real Madrid anymore. It's the NBA and the Mavs with much more athletic players than what RM had or has. You can clearly see the difference in the system as well. A lot more slashing and cutting to the basket plus there are other guys who can create the offense for Luka.
And the guy who played center for Ducks used to be in the NBA and Luka was toying with him. I would also say he was much stronger than that guy.

We all know he needs to get into a proper NBA shape and get some muscles on those arms and legs but for starters i think he'll be just fine. Well as long as Wesley Matthews doesn't think he is a freaking Kobe Bryant and tries to iso everything.

That guy who played center is Justin Hamilton and he was in the NBA as a 13-15th player on the roster. I dont know how you can say Luka was towing with him, the one time they were matched up Luka again needed 3 moves to get around him and then had to take that tough shot. Hamilton would be one of the worst bigs in the NBA, especially guarding the perimeter and Luka will not see such slow guys guarding him at any point so what he did was really not impressive, especially when it looked like he had to use all he had to get past Hamilton.

I am not saying Luka will be bad, he will be at least ok but this could serously limit his ceiling and this is why he was not the first pick in the draft and I have my doubts that he will actually be the 3rd best player of this draft when its all said and done.

[J_T]

The problem is that these moves only work with bigs who are not on NBA level

Yeah I disagree about that. I am certain that we won't have to wait long into the season before we see those exact moves work against a defender that is much quicker than Doncic. We will see.

He never gets an easy finish. Even against Hamilton he had to take a very tough shot. He hit it yesterday but thats a low % shot.

That's another disagreement here. For Luka those are actually surprisingly high % shots. He has been shooting those all the time and his % was extreme (he had highest FG% in EL from inside the paint in first half of the season at least, beating dunking centers and quick lay-up specialists). You can see even in the clips posted few days ago that floaters are his bread and butter, he is training them all the time and can hit them with his eyes closed. Maybe I'm wrong but I think that his shooting % from those shots is going to be high.

[XTraderXL]

I am talking about consistency. Luka can not beat his man off the dribble consistently. Of course he can do it from time to time but thats not enough if you want to be an elite scorer in the NBA.

And you cant know how his paint FG% will translate to the NBA. I think it will go down quite a bit in his first season. We will see what happens, first semi-real test will be Philly in a few days. They will put Covington and Simmons on him and that should be very interesting.

[thr3ep01nte4]

I am talking about consistency. Luka can not beat his man off the dribble consistently. Of course he can do it from time to time but thats not enough if you want to be an elite scorer in the NBA.

And you cant know how his paint FG% will translate to the NBA. I think it will go down quite a bit in his first season. We will see what happens, first semi-real test will be Philly in a few days. They will put Covington and Simmons on him and that should be very interesting.

Yeah, I think the Sixers games will be interesting, especially going against Simmons. Covington, Simmons, and Embiid can pose a decent challenge for Doncic. However, I don't think Luka can be easily shut down either. He's too smart for that. His build is very wide which is extremely helpful when it comes to carving out space, and he is quite strong. I can't see him simply getting shut down by length and athleticism. It may bother him a little bit, but he will adapt.

[mixerball]

I am talking about consistency. Luka can not beat his man off the dribble consistently. Of course he can do it from time to time but thats not enough if you want to be an elite scorer in the NBA.

And you cant know how his paint FG% will translate to the NBA. I think it will go down quite a bit in his first season. We will see what happens, first semi-real test will be Philly in a few days. They will put Covington and Simmons on him and that should be very interesting.

luka will never be elite scorer. but he could be elite facilitator.

[Pointguard01]

I am talking about consistency. Luka can not beat his man off the dribble consistently. Of course he can do it from time to time but thats not enough if you want to be an elite scorer in the NBA.

And you cant know how his paint FG% will translate to the NBA. I think it will go down quite a bit in his first season. We will see what happens, first semi-real test will be Philly in a few days. They will put Covington and Simmons on him and that should be very interesting.

luka will never be elite scorer. but he could be elite facilitator.

I said this in another thread but the biggest encouragement from last night was Luka going 3/4 from 3. Similar to Stephen Curry or James Harden, they thrive off the fact that

(a) you cannot go under a screen
(b) the game-plan is to run them off the 3

They are more accomplished and respected shooters coming into the league, but if Luka can become a threat outside, it will make his driving and PnR game much easier.

[batigol18]

Luka will be great threat from outside.

Such open shots for three point, he had in first game, he didn't have in whole last season in Real. I think somebody found info that Luka in whole Euroleague season had only two open catch and shoot three pointers. All other shots for three were under pressure or off the dribble.

Luka will feast on the fact that he will be just one of the scoring threats and that the focus of opponents in defense won't be just on Luka, like it happen on many games in Europe, where the game plan was to double or even tripple Luka and left some other players alone and invite them for long shots.

His game has also never been "athletic" and it won't be in NBA also. He is not dependent on "one on one" situations, to blow opponent with first step. And he will show that also in games against NBA teams. He'll be one of better player if not the best on court for Dallas on majority of NBA games this season.

[XTraderXL]

I am talking about consistency. Luka can not beat his man off the dribble consistently. Of course he can do it from time to time but thats not enough if you want to be an elite scorer in the NBA.

And you cant know how his paint FG% will translate to the NBA. I think it will go down quite a bit in his first season. We will see what happens, first semi-real test will be Philly in a few days. They will put Covington and Simmons on him and that should be very interesting.

Yeah, I think the Sixers games will be interesting, especially going against Simmons. Covington, Simmons, and Embiid can pose a decent challenge for Doncic. However, I don't think Luka can be easily shut down either. He's too smart for that. His build is very wide which is extremely helpful when it comes to carving out space, and he is quite strong. I can't see him simply getting shut down by length and athleticism. It may bother him a little bit, but he will adapt.

I never said he will get shut down, he is too talented and versatile for that to happen. Even if he doesnt improve his body and athelticism, he will be a good player. What I am trying to say is that his ceiling will be limited if he doesnt improve on that significantly. I think it can be done but it will take time and lots of work and I simply dont know if he has the discipline to do it. I am sceptical based on what he did this summer and how his body looks. People would be surprised about how much you can do in this area in 2-3 months of hard work and to me he looks like he just didnt work hard enough. There was nothing I saw in this game that I havent seen from him before in terms of individual skill. People rave about his performance but he has been doing the same thing agains way better competition than the Ducks for years now. Thats why I cant wait to see how he does against Philly. I think the game will be quite competitive.

[wolfram]

I agree that Luka needs to work harder on his body than the rest. Probably has bad eating habits the way he talks about food. He can be slimmer and faster a bit. He can improve his vertical a bit (also with cutting weight). But I think he will never progress to a point we would say he is a great athlete. On the other hand he could be strong as a bull.
Luka can be a superstar if he developes his shooting, handles, playmaking, passing, rebounding, finishing at the rim... He will never be an iso, off the dribble, above the rim, dunking on people, type of scorer. He is all finesse and touch. And I love this type of basketball, so I don't mind if he never becomes a superstar. He will be a great NBA player.

[Bob8]

1. Doncic had, well deserved, time off till mid avgust. It’s kinda unrealistic to expect he will look totally different in 1.5 months. Next year with around 5 months time will be crucial for his body transformation and even then he will be only 20 years old. He should look much better in 3 years time.
2. Do some people here really believe he can come in Nba and take keys from day 1? That would be great way to start on a bad note with some teammates. Even in Real he needed Llull’s injury to become frontman. Luka should be judged as rookie in his first season.

[Darren]

Well, Luka played a very solid game but it was the Ducks))) What I wanted to see is if he got any more explosive and it was a let down. He needed to "dance" just to get around Hamilton and then took a tough shot. Same old thing as in the EL last year when better bigs switched on him. I was hoping he will improve on this because he will get smoked by the NBA bigs and wing defenders. At least his 3pt shots are falling but again, he was completely open on all of them. Dont know, I am not as optimistic about his first season as some here are...

I feel the same way about Doncic. And hell yes, I feel exactly the same on the tough contested mid-range by Hamilton. But the Mavs is right. He's more PF than SG. And he does his part on shooting practices. I think all those hypes are way too early. I am still not sold he's a franchise player moving forward. Doncic is Doncic. Luka could be a new Magic Johnson or a PF version of Kidd. That's it. This kind of player is more part of the complementary player than franchise player lacking the elite tools to excel in clutch time. Anyway, he shows he can be a normal starter or great backup. I think at least the Mavs gets a rotation player.

But he does push Smith to work very hard on both ends. Those kinds of handles could at least make Smith Monta Ellis or even Chris Paul. I see an all-star season for Dennis who's about to get pass Lillard to me if he shoots 33% from the arc. I really like those moves that drive up the excitement from crowd. I am still waiting for his defensive performance and clutch performance. To be sure, his defense is on path with Lillard who's not a great defender at all. I believe Dennis can surprise a lot of fans hitting 40% from outside.

I also like what I see from DJ both on and off the court. He plays within the team concept. He gets along with teammates. He's also able to drive up the emotions of the crowd. He shows excellent ability to create on the top of the key. He's working on 3-point competition with Dirk. He's taking leadership role. I think this is the personality for a successful organization. At his 30, DJ wants to be a better passer, playmaker and shooter both from FT and from 3P. That's the kind of attitude the Mavs needed from the core. But his legs, knees, ankles need evaluation. To be sure, he still ain't jumping as high as he does 3 year's ago. That's still an important reason for his drop in shotblocking number last season. We'd better look at his health early and try whatever to prolong his prime.

Kosta is surprisingly an excellent fit to the Mavs system. He's a prospect that could surprising a lot of teams being as good as a starter. I want him to get mintues to work on his game. To be specific, I want him to be able to guard those speedy guards as well. And offensively, I want him to shoot well, at least from FT. To be able to add a corner 3 could be sweet. I am ready to waive Spalding for Kosta. But I would wait a year to see if Spalding can defend anything. He can't even defend players from China league. That's pretty bad. I think the Mavs could start Kosta in place of DFS to try to guard Ben Simmons next game. We'll have better idea how versatile he could be on the defensive end. And how much potentially he has as a starter on the Mavs roster in future.