GONYK wrote:Clyde_Style wrote:GONYK wrote:
Based on what?
If the FBI clears him to a degree that the Senate is comfortable confirming him, I don't see the avenue where that outcome is likely.
Are you anticipating some bombshell to come out after all of this?
There is a new accusation that is presently anonymous, but could be unmasked, that Kav and a buddy raped a girl repeatedly in the back of a car. She said he forced her to do fellatio and came in her mouth, then both raped her.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/36529/released-transcript-kavanaugh-asked-about-amanda-prestigiacomoThe Senate already knew this. We'll see how comfortable they are with this kind of stuff by the time the FBI is done and more rape or abuse accusations surface.
I have no idea why you think it is likely they confirm, though they are an evil bunch so I wouldn't rule it out.
I think, given the current state of play, they are likely to confirm for 2 reasons:
1. None of the accusations have been corroborated in any way that is damning or prosecutable, and the R's see this as a war to maintain due process and precedence.
2. They know that if they don't get a judge in by mid-terms and the Dems take the House and possibly a few seats in the Senate, then they might not get another chance before the next Presidential election.
So unless something major comes out that really sticks, I see them ramming Kav through. I also think conservative Dems like Manchin will help them. The bar fight is an interesting development though. Speaks to temperament.
Due process? The confirmations are not a court room so your points are misplaced, because the exposure due to the accusations is what matters first, then you cross the bridge of investigations and indictments for rape or other crimes next.
Precedence? Whose? 200+ years of historical precedence or Merrick Garland and now this?
Per # 2, almost every single congressional member of the GOP has proven themselves to be purely in this for themselves. The illusion of party unity in the GOP's case is not at this point ideological other than hewing to the points of action their rich donors direct them to take. So the only calculus here is political suicide by confirming Kavanaugh or political\financial suicide by not doing their masters bidding.
Since it only takes 1 GOP senator to kill this it has become abundantly clear that Flake, Murkowski, Collins and Manchin played a game of deflection (with Flake now taunting Trump that one week of investigation will not suffice) in order to push this decision further down the road for one reason only. It is not morals. It is that they don't want to vote on Kavanaugh at all, because they don't want to vote for him personally or because their state constituency is telling them not to, but they don't want to piss off the money bags by voting NO. So I don't know where you get the notion that McConnell will get Kavanaugh approved. He cannot ram this through at this point regardless of you point about the calendar.
And if you don't think several rape or sexual misconduct accusations than can still easily morph into trials is not MAJOR, I don't know what to tell you. I know you're saying an accusation is not major to the GOP and you're right about that. But you're deeply misreading the impact of those accusations and how the social feedback nationwide has rippled through the Senate ranks in a big way already.
The bar fight is important, but not critical.
What is critical now is this and what you omitted. Kavanaugh has been a serial liar under oath to the Senate which is a federal crime. Now that the FBI has their teeth into him, that alone is a major deal that disqualifies him. Being an out of control drunk who allegedly also rapes people only at present needs firm testimony that shows he was a belligerent binge drinker to nail him for lying under oath. The FBI has that testimony now and a police report as hard evidence. The GOP has no say into whether the FBI now reports that Kavanaugh is now prosecutable for lying under oath.
Additionally, you've completely ignored that Orrin Hatch's office and perhaps multiple GOP Senators can now be investigated by the FBI for conspiracy to tamper with "due process" starting with the false lies put out that a classmate of Kavanaugh's was some kind of doppelganger Mrs. Ford mistakened for Kavanaugh. Look up Edward Whelan if that name is new to you. Primary GOP operatives played fast and loose with the truth. If the FBI proves it was directed by top GOP senators, this morphs into a forest fire. So much for due process.
And there may have been witness tampering by Kavanaugh himself against at least one of his accusers as well:
https://abovethelaw.com/2018/10/akin-gump-partner-is-the-woman-who-has-texts-that-suggest-kavanaugh-was-trying-to-discredit-ramirez-story-prior-to-publication/Finally, I agree with the other comments that Kavanaugh is a dope. Not a single drop of intelligence gleams off of this henchman's flop sweat. He's the federal judge equivalent of Michael Cohen. He got into this position due to his willingness to kowtow to Lord Trump for a SCOTUS seat. It appears the one who subjugates themselves to Trump in the most transparent fashion gets the nod. Only difference here is Cohen is smart enough to cut bait. This guy will go down in flames for going this far and he will be prosecuted by someone. He is not getting approved for SCOTUS. That's BS.
