Draft Big Boards -- Put Up or Shut Up (2018)

[Negrodamus]

Pretty interesting:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/8srn3h/oc_using_machine_learning_to_predict_the_best/

EDIT: I thought this was the other draft thread. I'll leave it here for your viewing pleasure.

[LloydFree]

1. DeAndre Ayton
2. Mo Bamba
3. Jaren Jackson

4. Luka Doncic
5. Michael Porter
6. Mavin Bagley
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Troy Brown
9. Miles Bridges
10. Robert Williams
11. Trae Young
12. Chandler Hutchinson

13. Lonnie Walker
14. Colin Sexton
15. Bruce Brown
16. Mikal Bridges
17. Zhaire Smith
18. Kevin Knox
19. Aaron Holiday
20. Alonzo Trier

[eagereyez]

1. Luka Doncic

2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. Mo Bamba
4. DeAndre Ayton
5. Trae Young
6. Michael Porter Jr.
7. Marvin Bagley

8. Wendell Carter
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Collin Sexton
12. Miles Bridges
13. Zhaire Smith
14. Robert Williams
15. Chandler Hutchison

[aHealthy3]

Luka
JJJ

Ayton
Wendell
Bamba

MPJ
Bagley
Miles B
Knox
Zhaire

Shai
Mikal Bridges
Lonnie Walker
Trae Young

[LloydFree]

1. DeAndre Ayton
2. Mo Bamba
3. Jaren Jackson

4. Luka Doncic
5. Michael Porter
6. Mavin Bagley
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Troy Brown
9. Miles Bridges
10. Robert Williams
11. Trae Young
12. Chandler Hutchinson

13. Lonnie Walker
14. Colin Sexton
15. Bruce Brown
16. Mikal Bridges
17. Zhaire Smith
18. Kevin Knox
19. Aaron Holiday
20. Alonzo Trier

I actually forgot to list Wendell Carter. He'd come in at #13 on my board.

1. DeAndre Ayton
2. Mo Bamba
3. Jaren Jackson

4. Luka Doncic
5. Michael Porter
6. Mavin Bagley
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Troy Brown
9. Miles Bridges
10. Robert Williams
11. Trae Young
12. Chandler Hutchinson

13. Wendell Carter
14. Lonnie Walker
15. Colin Sexton
16. Bruce Brown
17. Mikal Bridges
18. Zhaire Smith
19. Kevin Knox
20. Aaron Holiday

[sixers hoops]

Ive already acknowledged I don’t watch enough college basketball to bother making a big board.

Impressed by everyone who put up tho.

[XDevilBoiX]

Me too

[LloydFree]

1. DeAndre Ayton
2. Mo Bamba
3. Jaren Jackson

4. Luka Doncic
5. Michael Porter
6. Mavin Bagley
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Troy Brown
9. Miles Bridges
10. Robert Williams
11. Trae Young
12. Chandler Hutchinson

13. Lonnie Walker
14. Colin Sexton
15. Bruce Brown
16. Mikal Bridges
17. Zhaire Smith
18. Kevin Knox
19. Aaron Holiday
20. Alonzo Trier

Bump.

I wanna flip flop Miles Bridges and Marvin Bagley already. And move Alonzo Trier up about 5 spots.

[Kolkmania]

Bump.

I wanna flip flop Miles Bridges and Marvin Bagley already. And move Alonzo Trier up about 5 spots.

Shows how hard it is to predict a player's ability based on the information available around draft time. Makes it even more laughable how blunt you've been about Fultz and now want to make drastic changes after SL and one preseason game.

[LloydFree]

Bump.

I wanna flip flop Miles Bridges and Marvin Bagley already. And move Alonzo Trier up about 5 spots.

Shows how hard it is to predict a player's ability based on the information available around draft time. Makes it even more laughable how blunt you've been about Fultz and now want to make drastic changes after SL and one preseason game.

Yeah, that's mostly true, except all I heard for a whole year was how sure most were that Fultz was the no-doubt #1 player. If it so hard to predict, how were you and many others, so sure about that? And why the ridicule for the posters who had doubts about his ability? You can't have it both ways.

[Negrodamus]

The hardest thing to capture is a players determination and mental capacity for fixing their weaknesses. Lazy defenders with elite length, height, etc hurt my perception of them (Ayton, Fultz) but they can easily prove me wrong if they show the willingness to learn how to be a great defender. Since we don't get to sit down and interview them (nor do we get a private investigator's report), we make our prediction with a strong degree of ignorance.

[Negrodamus]

I still like Hutchison a lot, but I'm a bit disappointed in how little improvement he's made on his form. He still looks like he's squatting when taking an open jumper. He has the tools to be elite, but needs to improve on his shot drastically.

[eagereyez]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

[76ciology]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

From what ive seen, drafting bigs early on the draft is not a good idea unless you’re talking about a generational big. What made Ayton not a generational big, is theres no generational big with a questionable defense coming to the draft.

If i have to redraft everything from 2013, I wouldnt draft wings and specially guards who have fundamental flaws with their shooting and non generational bigs.

[eagereyez]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

From what ive seen, drafting bigs early on the draft is not a good idea unless you’re talking about a generational big. What made Ayton not a generational big, is theres no generational big with a questionable defense coming to the draft.

If i have to redraft everything from 2013, I wouldnt draft wings and specially guards who have fundamental flaws with their shooting and non generational bigs.

Agreed. Perimeter players who can't shoot need to be phenomenal in other aspects of their game to succeed. Simmons would be a superstar if he was an average shooter. Giannis would be a GOAT candidate if he shot 35% from 3 and 80% from the line. And the need to shoot is greater for small players who don't have the physical gifts of a Simmons or Giannis. This is why I was so low on Dunn and Mudiay coming out of the draft, and higher on Hield and Murray.

In retrospect, it should have been clear that Tatum would be better than Jackson. He has a longer wingspan and is a great FT shooter. But Jackson had some cool layups and could jump real high, so I allowed myself to be influenced by the flash and overlooked the substance.

[76ciology]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

From what ive seen, drafting bigs early on the draft is not a good idea unless you’re talking about a generational big. What made Ayton not a generational big, is theres no generational big with a questionable defense coming to the draft.

If i have to redraft everything from 2013, I wouldnt draft wings and specially guards who have fundamental flaws with their shooting and non generational bigs.

Agreed. Perimeter players who can't shoot need to be phenomenal in other aspects of their game to succeed. Simmons would be a superstar if he was an average shooter. Giannis would be a GOAT candidate if he shot 35% from 3 and 80% from the line. And the need to shoot is greater for small players who don't have the physical gifts of a Simmons or Giannis. This is why I was so low on Dunn and Mudiay coming out of the draft, and higher on Hield and Murray.

I also find the game to be favoring guards and wings too much. With 1-5 PnR for guards is unstoppable and the switch heavy defense for wings.

For centers, i dont know what the game favors for centers. The defense isnt even anchored by the center anymore. You look at guys like BroLo and Al Horford spacing the floor. Offensively, the refs hold their whistle on post offense or bully ball. When the game works against you, you will have to work extra hard.

I still think Fultz is the right pick for that draft, talent wise. Three level scorer with switchable defense. But I’d guess there’s really something f’d up in Fultz head even before the injury that Celts picked up.

Not really high on Tatum, then and now.

[Sixerscan]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

From what ive seen, drafting bigs early on the draft is not a good idea unless you’re talking about a generational big. What made Ayton not a generational big, is theres no generational big with a questionable defense coming to the draft.

If i have to redraft everything from 2013, I wouldnt draft wings and specially guards who have fundamental flaws with their shooting and non generational bigs.

I think people go overboard with this honestly. You look at past drafts and there’s generally 1-2 big guys that deserve being top ~5 picks in retrospect.

2012: Davis and Drummond
2013: Gobert and Adams
2014: Embiid Jokic maybe Capella
2015: Towns Porzingis and Turner

The more recent have been a little more it or miss, but if you told me most all of JJJ Ayton Bagely ended up in that range I wouldn’t be shocked. Some of the guards and wings will be good but others will bust. Like in the 2016 draft there were 7 guards and wings taken in the top 9. Issac abd Lauri are better prospects than idk, everyone but Tatum I guess Fox? Fox has the shooting issue too though?

[76ciology]

Btw, looking at the 2015 draft. Man that draft sucks

[Negrodamus]

At the end of year 1, Doncic has been head and shoulders better than his peers. He would clearly go #1 in a re-draft.

It was obvious in hindsight too. He's a Euroleague MVP at 19 years old and outplayed his veteran and former NBA All-Star teammate Goran Dragic. He can shoot, pass, dribble, and is a crafty defender. But he can't jump high or run fast, so he was underrated.

I agree based on just this year, however, I still think Ayton has long-term potential to be #1.

Looking back at my final ranking, I regret not putting Young higher. I truly loved everything about his game and said a few times that it would make sense for Orlando to build around him with the pieces they already have in place, but his size was giving me a ton of pause.

The rest of my list is very much banking on long term potential. Guys like Chandler Hutchison, Jarred Vanderbilt, Troy Brown, and Khyri Thomas were never going to blow up in this season, but rather show promise. Higher up, Jaren Jackson has a near 2 STL% and 5 BLK% in his rookie season while showing his shooting potential is translating. He didn't put up the huge numbers, but his ceiling is crazy. Was a fun draft to follow, but with the blue chip prospects mostly being big men (Ayton, Bamba, Jackson, Carter, etc) I'm going to wait it out another year before the ranking is more solidified.

[youngcrev]

Btw, looking at the 2015 draft. Man that draft sucks

KAT, Porzingis, Booker, Russell, Turner, Richardson... I've seen worse. Definitely a lot of flat out busts though