McD's Draft Record

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I have been one of McD's staunchest defenders (see username). This is primarily due to my approval of his countercyclical approach to team development: accumulating long-term assets, including top draft picks, while long-term championship potential was dim. Now we're moving into a medium-term part of the cycle as we try to secure an exponential trajectory. I have approved of most of his moves on an individual basis (not taking hindsight into account). But when you execute this plan, key to your success is how you perform in the draft. High picks come at a high cost (in the form of losses), regardless of the talent available in that year of the draft.

With Dragan struggling, Chriss out after two years, Jackson off to a shaky start, and Bridges invisible so far as a 22YO rookie, even I'm having my doubts about that latter part. OTOH, I really think the Ayton selection took some guts, since the consensus in the basketball community seemed to be that Doncic was the smarter selection.

What are the board's grades for his draft picks, on an individual basis or overall? I'm grading on bell curve centered around a C. Here's what I got:

2013
Overall Grade: D+

#5 - Alex Len
Grade: D
Explanation: Just because the first pick was an F doesn’t make this selection any better. Noel at least netted a FRP in a trade. Had McD traded down, he might have been able to snag a superstar, one of the league’s best defenders, or one or more several solid NBA players. D range because at least Alex is an NBA player.

#28 - Archie Goodwin
Grade: C-
Explanation: C range just because of how hard it is to hit this late in the draft, and I thought Archie was worth the gamble at the time. Ultimately, a bust. And you have to expect, based on the fact that we had drafted Alex, that we likely would have passed on Gobert at this spot had he not been drafted the pick earlier. Crabbe was selected at #31, and there were a few other NBA players selected in the second round.

2014
Overall Grade: C-

#14 - TJ Warren
Grade: A-
Explanation: In my homer opinion, I think there was only one player selected after TJ who was better, and that’s Nikola Jokic at #46. Many would have preferred Rodney Hood or James Young (yuk!). TJ was my guy and I still love this pick. Most people would take Gary Harris and Capela over TJ, but for the money at least, I still prefer TJ. Minus only because of how many players of comparable value were available here or lower.

#18 - Tyler Ennis
Grade: F
Explanation: I was surprised by this pick when it was made, and I think the consensus is that we were trying to extort Toronto and failed. We gave this guy up in a deal for Knight and he became a free agent within two years of joining the league. Total waste of a pick in a good draft. The front office tried to get a bit too clever with this one.

#27 - Bogdan Bogdanovic
Grade: B-
Explanation: Bogdanovic is a player San Antonio (#30) was believed to like, which makes you wonder if McD was pulling this same maneuver with them. Bogdanovic was a great selection for a late-first, but he never joined the club, and we tossed him into another deal later. I believe he held real value at that time, so overall this was a solid pick, but we never got anything out of it.

#50 - Alec Brown
Grade: N/A
Explanation: No NBA players were drafted this point or lower.

2015
Overall Grade: A+

#13 - Devin Booker
Grade: A+
Explanation: Picked up a superstar in the late lotto; no better players selected later. While this was an obvious pick to some (including myself), I was witness to the selection of Markieff Morris over Kawhi Leonard. Thank God we made the right choice with this one.

#44 - Traded for Jon Leuer (Aaron Harrison)
Grade: B-
Explanation: This seemed like a good trade at the time, but would we have been any worse off in the long run if we had just sold it?

2016
Overall Grade: F

#4 - Dragan Bender
Grade: F+
Explanation: The plus is for the possibility that Dragan shows us something in the next two weeks that justifies us picking up his option. But if you release your #4 pick before he hits RFA, that’s a bust. I didn’t like this pick at the time but became okay with it, and I’ve bought into his potential. I still think there’s a chance he’ll succeed. But this draft really put the lie to the whole “we draft BPA regardless of position” rhetoric. I thought Jamal Murray was clearly the BPA (though I stupidly would have passed on Brown, while I suspect McD would have pounced). I would have loved to move BACK for Sabonis or Dejounte Murray. I didn’t like Dunn but he would have been the better choice in hindsight. Plenty of the other guys I liked – Brice Johnson, Henry Ellenson, Tyler Ulis – didn’t pan out, either, so I recognize that this is difficult. Dragan still has as high a ceiling as all of these guys but Jamal Murray, really, which is the weird thing, but he’s showing nothing.

#13 - Traded w/Bogdan & #28 for Marquese Chriss (#8)
#28 - Traded w/Bogdan & #13 for Marquese Chriss (#8)
Grade: F-
Explanation: Not only did I not like the player we selected, but the player I would have drafted at #13 – Dejounte Murray – would have been a great selection in hindsight. And we would have kept Bogdan and #28. Chriss is a straight up bust. We made both of the worst lotto selections. What a disaster this draft was.

#34 - Tyler Ulis
Grade: D
Explanation: I loved this pick and thought it would work out. I was wrong for all the reasons others stated – basically, the laws of physics. He’s too small to succeed at this level. And there were quality players to be had here. It’s easy to bust in this range, and at least he earned some court time his rookie season, hence the D.

2017
Overall Grade: C-

#4 - Josh Jackson
Grade: C
Explanation: I hate to give this grade because I still hold out hope that this kid becomes an all-star. But the facts are the facts. De’Aaaron Fox and Dennis Smith are hitting their threes at the moment, while Josh is mostly a turnover machine. Superstar Donovan Mitchell was selected at #13, and future All-Star Lauri Markkanen at #7. Would we be any less happy today if we had selected Jonathan Isaac or even Frank Ntilikina? I’m not so sure. I still believe in Josh’s upside, but there’s a downside to him that the players above don’t have. If he can figure it out, this could still be an A or A-, but that’s hope talking. I can’t do better than a C right now.

#32 - Davon Reed
Grade: C-
Explanation: The standard explanation about late draft picks, you know. But most of this board would have taken Jordan Bell, which pushes the grade down. Reed looks like an NBA player, though maybe just a marginal talent who ends up overseas.

#54 - Alec Peters
Grade: N/A
Explanation: No NBA players selected hereafter.

2018
Overall Grade: A-

#1 - DeAndre Ayton
Grade: A+*
Explanation: Ayton may or may not have been the consensus #1, depending on whom you poll. If it’s the basketball community in general, the consensus was Doncic, and some had Ayton quite low. GMs apparently were on board with this pick. It’s too early, but as of today, it looks like McD made the most out of the most valuable asset he’s ever had, which is worth some bonus points, in my view. Missing on Lauri Markkanen is just not the same as missing on Deandre Ayton.

#16 - Traded w/MIA '21 for Mikal Bridges (#10)
Grade: C*
Explanation: Way, way too early; the C is actually giving McD all the benefit of the doubt. I loved Mikal Bridges, but he was an awkward fit with our roster. Early returns are basically nil, while guys drafted #11 and #12 (SGA and Miles Bridges) are showing quite a bit already (and it seems they would also be better fits!). We gave up the MIA pick to move up to this spot, and while I admit that I was not in love with our options at #16 (I probably would have taken DiVincenzo), others were touting Landry Shamet and Grayson Allen (whom I also liked), who are also showing quite a bit at this early juncture. Bridges is 22, but it seems like he’s aging more slowly than normal humans. I don’t know what to make of it. He may need to redshirt his rookie year the same way he redshirted college and just live in the weight room.

#31 - Elie Okobo
Grade: A-*
Explanation: Plenty of benefit of the doubt going into this one as well, but I don’t think I’d trade him for anyone taken below him as of today. We will see.

#59 - George King
Grade: A*
Explanation: I think we drafted an NBA player with this pick. Not a lot to go on, I know. I just love what I’ve seen. Getting an NBA player at #59 is super rare, so if I’m right, McD really nailed this one.

My Overall Draft Grade: C-

This is tough. Obviously had we drafted better, we’d be a better team and probably would not have in a position to draft the team’s first-ever franchise center, and two of only a select few of the franchise players we’ve ever drafted. McD really loaded his draft cannons with all the losses and trades, but he has missed on a bunch of selections.

A lot of this comes down to his top picks: Len, Bender, Chriss, Josh, Deandre and Mikal were all top ten picks. 5 of those 6 could be busts; at least 2 and probably 3 of them already are. He’s done great in the late lotto with Booker and Warren, but he’s also failed to correctly spot any diamonds in the rough with his late-firsts or second rounders. His picks tend to be rather binary: home runs or total busts.

So a draft genius, McD is not. BUT I do think he has succeeded in his overall plan of building a foundation for an extended period of championship contention. It’s hard for me to judge his performance as a GM overall, and I’m not unhappy with him, but I’m also no longer married to him. My tune will change if Bender recovers and/or Jackson improves. I will also think much better of him if Mikal turns out to be the right selection. There’s still plenty of basketball that needs to be played.

[Blonde]

I wouldn’t say the Len or Bender picks were bad at the time, so I won’t count those too negatively against him. Sure Len is gone and Bender is likely to not amount to much, but they made sense when we picked them. Where I really feel like McDonough failed is the trade up for Chriss, Tyler Ennis, and Davon Reed. We gave up way too much for Chriss and he had red flags all over him coming out of college. Tyler Ennis was a wasted pick when there were better players who would fit better still available. And Davon Rees was a huge reach at 32 when everybody knew we ahould have taken Jordan Bell.

That being said, the most important part of drafting is the high end talent. If McD has drafted 2 all stars (Booker & Ayton), and useful starters/role players (Jackson/Warren/Bridges), then it is hard to say he hasn’t done a decent job. That being said, he’s had so many opportunities that it’s hard to imagine many other GMs couldn’t have done just as well or better.

I’d rate him out at a C+ meaning he did slightly better than an average GM would have. The amount of busts is high because he had so many bites at the apple, but only 2 or 3 have to really hit for his tenure to look like a success.

[Damkac]

I thing it's too early to grade 2017 and 2018 drafts.

[ATTL]

Picking 5 in the Len draft was unlucky, i doubt they looked much at Giannis or gobert. If the pick was late lotto they probably would have looked harder at them.
I'm happy with where we are, overall.
I'm not and was not a big fan of the bridges trade. I wanted Shai at 16 and was sad when he got picked ahead of us. If we were planning to trade up I would have peferred it be for shai.

[bwgood77]

I have been one of McD's staunchest defenders (see username). This is primarily due to my approval of his countercyclical approach to team development: accumulating long-term assets, including top draft picks, while long-term championship potential was dim. Now we're moving into a medium-term part of the cycle as we try to secure an exponential trajectory. I have approved of most of his moves on an individual basis (not taking hindsight into account). But when you execute this plan, key to your success is how you perform in the draft. High picks come at a high cost (in the form of losses), regardless of the talent available in that year of the draft.

With Dragan struggling, Chriss out after two years, Jackson off to a shaky start, and Bridges invisible so far as a 22YO rookie, even I'm having my doubts about that latter part. OTOH, I really think the Ayton selection took some guts, since the consensus in the basketball community seemed to be that Doncic was the smarter selection.

What are the board's grades for his draft picks, on an individual basis or overall? I'm grading on bell curve centered around a C. Here's what I got:

2013
Overall Grade: D+

#5 - Alex Len
Grade: D
Explanation: Just because the first pick was an F doesn’t make this selection any better. Noel at least netted a FRP in a trade. Had McD traded down, he might have been able to snag a superstar, one of the league’s best defenders, or one or more several solid NBA players. D range because at least Alex is an NBA player.

#28 - Archie Goodwin
Grade: C-
Explanation: C range just because of how hard it is to hit this late in the draft, and I thought Archie was worth the gamble at the time. Ultimately, a bust. And you have to expect, based on the fact that we had drafted Alex, that we likely would have passed on Gobert at this spot had he not been drafted the pick earlier. Alex Crabbe was selected at #31, and there were a few other NBA players selected in the second round.

2014
Overall Grade: C-

#14 - TJ Warren
Grade: A-
Explanation: In my homer opinion, I think there was only one player selected after TJ who was better, and that’s Nikola Jokic at #46. Many would have preferred Rodney Hood or James Young (yuk!). TJ was my guy and I still love this pick. Most people would take Gary Harris and Capela over TJ, but for the money at least, I still prefer TJ. Minus only because of how many players of comparable value were available here or lower.

#18 - Tyler Ennis
Grade: F
Explanation: I was surprised by this pick when it was made, and I think the consensus is that we were trying to extort Toronto and failed. We gave this guy up in a deal for Knight and he became a free agent within two years of joining the league. Total waste of a pick in a good draft. The front office tried to get a bit too clever with this one.

#27 - Bogdan Bogdanovic
Grade: B-
Explanation: Bogdanovic is a player San Antonio (#30) was believed to like, which makes you wonder if McD was pulling this same maneuver with them. Bogdanovic was a great selection for a late-first, but he never joined the club, and he we tossed him into another deal later. I believe he held real value at that time, so overall this was a solid pick, but we never got anything out of it.

#50 - Alec Brown
Grade: N/A
Explanation: No NBA players were drafted this point or lower.

2015
Overall Grade: A+

#13 - Devin Booker
Grade: A+
Explanation: Picked up a superstar in the late lotto; no better players selected later. While this was an obvious pick to some (including myself), I was witness to the selection of Markieff Morris over Kawhi Leonard. Thank God we made the right choice with this one.

#44 - Traded for Jon Leuer (Aaron Harrison)
Grade: B-
Explanation: This seemed like a good trade at the time, but would we have been any worse off in the long run if we had just sold it?

2016
Overall Grade: F

#4 - Dragan Bender
Grade: F+
Explanation: The plus is for the possibility that Dragan shows us something in the next two weeks that justifies us picking up his option. But if you release your #4 pick before he hits RFA, that’s a bust.
I didn’t like this pick at the time but became okay with it, and I’ve bought into his potential. I still do and think there’s a chance he’ll succeed. But this draft really put the lie to the whole “we draft BPA regardless of position” rhetoric. I thought Jamal Murray was clearly the BPA (though I stupidly would have passed on Brown, while I suspect McD would have pounced). I would have loved to move BACK for Sabonis or Dejounte Murray. I didn’t like Dunn but he would have been the better choice in hindsight. Plenty of the other guys I liked – Brice Johnson, Henry Ellenson, Tyler Ulis – didn’t pan out, either, so I recognize that this is difficult. Dragan still has as high a ceiling as all of these guys but Jamal Murray, really, which is the weird thing, but he’s showing nothing.

#13 - Traded w/Bogdan & #28 for Marquese Chriss (#8)
#28 - Traded w/Bogdan & #13 for Marquese Chriss (#8)
Grade: F-
Explanation: Not only did I not like the player we selected, but the player I would have drafted at #13 – Dejounte Murray – would have been a great selection in hindsight. And we would have kept Bogdan and #28. Chriss is a straight up bust. We made both of the worst lotto selections. What a disaster this draft was.

#34 - Tyler Ulis
Grade: D
Explanation: I loved this pick and thought it would work out. I was wrong for all the reasons others stated – basically, the laws of physics. He’s too small to succeed at this level. And there were quality players to be had here. It’s easy to bust in this range, and at least he earned some court time his rookie season, hence the D.

2017
Overall Grade: C-

#4 - Josh Jackson
Grade: C
Explanation: I hate to give this grade because I still hold out hope that this kid becomes an all-star. But the facts are the facts. De’Aaaron Fox and Dennis Smith are hitting their threes at the moment, while Josh is mostly a turnover machine. Superstar Donovan Mitchell was selected at #13, and future All-Star Lauri Markkanen at #7. Would we be any less happy today if we had selected Jonathan Isaac or even Frank Ntilikina? I’m not so sure.
I still believe in Josh’s upside, but there’s still a downside to him that the players above don’t have. If he can figure it out, this could still be an A or A-, but that’s hope talking. I can’t do better than a C right now.

#32 - Davon Reed
Grade: C-
Explanation: The standard explanation about late draft picks, you know. But most of this board would have taken Jordan Bell, which pushes the grade down. Reed looks like an NBA player, though maybe just a marginal talent who ends up overseas.

#54 - Alec Peters
Grade: N/A
Explanation: No NBA players selected hereafter.

2018
Overall Grade: A-

#1 - DeAndre Ayton
Grade: A+*
Explanation: Ayton may or may not have been the consensus #1, depending on who you poll. If it’s the basketball community in general, the consensus was Doncic, and some had Ayton quite low. GMs apparently were on board with this pick. It’s too early, but as of today, it looks like McD made the most out of the most valuable asset he’s ever had, which is worth some bonus points, in my view. Missing on Lauri Markkanen is just not the same as missing on Deandre Ayton.

#16 - Traded w/MIA '21 for Mikal Bridges (#10)
Grade: C*
Explanation: Way, way too early; the C is actually giving McD all the benefit of the doubt. I loved Mikal Bridges, but he was an awkward fit with our roster. Early returns are basically nil, while guys drafted #11 and #12 (SGA and Miles Bridges) are showing quite a bit already (and it seems they would also be better fits!). We gave up the MIA pick to move up to this spot, and while I admit that I was not in love with our options at #16 (I probably would have taken DiVincenzo), others were touting Landry Shamet and Grayson Allen (whom I also liked), who are also showing quite a bit at this early juncture. Bridges is 22, but it seems like he’s aging more slowly than normal humans. I don’t know what to make of it. He may need to redshirt his rookie year the same way he redshirted college and just live in the weight room.

#31 - Elie Okobo
Grade: A-*
Explanation: Plenty of benefit of the doubt going into this one as well, but I don’t think I’d trade him for anyone taken below him as of today. We will see.

#59 - George King
Grade: A*
Explanation: I think we drafted an NBA player with this pick. Not a lot to go on, I know. I just love what I’ve seen. Getting an NBA player at #59 is super rare, so if I’m right, McD really nailed this one.

My Overall Draft Grade: C-

This is tough. Obviously had we drafted better, we’d be a better team and probably would not have in a position to draft the team’s first-ever franchise center, and two of only a select few of the franchise players we’ve ever drafted. McD really loaded his draft cannons with all the losses and trades, but he has missed on a bunch of selections.

A lot of this comes down to his top picks: Len, Bender, Chriss, Josh, Deandre and Mikal were all top ten picks. 5 of those 6 could be busts; at least 2 and probably 3 of them already are. He’s done great in the late lotto with Booker and Warren, but he’s also failed to correctly spot any diamonds in the rough with his late-firsts or second rounders. His picks tend to be rather binary: home run hits or total busts.

So a draft genius, McD is not. BUT I do think he has succeeded in his overall plan of building a foundation for an extended period of championship contention. It’s hard for me to judge his performance as a GM overall, and I’m not unhappy with him, but I’m also no longer married to him. My tune will change if Bender recovers and/or Jackson improves. I will also think much better of him if Mikal turns out to be the right selection. There’s still plenty of basketball that needs to be played.

The Len pick is tough. That pick was bad, but that draft was terrible. Most wanted McLemore or Noel and both might even have dimmer futures than Len. Sure he could have taken Gobert or Adams or something, but Gobert wasn't exactly high on many people's radars.

Warren was good, but he screwed up the rest of that draft because there were good options later.

The Bender pick made some sense...now you could argue Hield or Murray, but at the time we had just drafted a high volume SG who looked ready to break out, and we had Bledsoe and Knight....he had made those moves in the first couple of years of his rebuild....same goes for Dunn. So the Bender risk makes sense even though it hasn't worked out.

Sure, it would have been nice to trade up or down, but the draft was top heavy with top 2 so those teams were unlikely to trade down...Boston probably too. The Chriss trade was not good, but many were excited then, so we all kind of knew these were swing for the fence kind of picks and our major hole and only position he hadn't personally addressed at that point was PF, so it's understandable.

But in hindsight, the draft looks bad obviously...very very bad.

2017....still too early but Jackson was disappointing...at least relative to my expectations but still way too early to judge much. He should improve. I am not sure he will improve into what I was hoping he would be when drafted, but it's up to him.

2018....obviously way too early. It was a lot to give up for Bridges but I liked all the picks.

With context and the situation at the time, I think he's drafted about a C overall.

With hindsight it's more like a D but might be an F without Booker. I voted C-

And about Ayton being a risk. That wasn't a risk. That's who the whole fanbase and most people projected #1..local product, needed a C, physical specimen.

I think Doncic would have been a far bigger risk. As I said leading up to the draft, I would have been afraid to pass on either, but I think Ayton was definitely the easier choice....and there may not have been a wrong one.

[8on]

i can't confirm what McD was thinking when he drafted who he drafted.

here's how I would justify the picks if I had made them:

1. it is not worth drafting someone who you do not believe will be a superstar in the top 7. those picks should be reserved for players with superstar talent.
2. the reason my first point is important is because agents will force teams to overpay for talent. at this point, contracts do not reflect a player's value to the team. they reflect the agent's ability to leverage the team. in that sense, you need to get as much talent per dollar as possible. i look at the Bucks, and i see a team handicapped by their own contractual obligations, unable and afraid to make a trade for a second star to go with Giannis. i see the same thing with Portland, and Detroit. Denver might go down that path, too, once Jamal Murray is up for a contract extension. Minnesota is quickly becoming a team of the past, unable to get out of Andrew Wiggins' contract.
3. if you're not completely sold on a player's ability to do something at an elite level, don't take him with a top 7 pick. this is why Mo Bamba was very much worth his pick, why Wendell Carter and Jaren Jackson, Jr. were worth their selections, and why Trae Young was not.

what's my version of events? you have to look at things, in my opinion, the way they were at that time. again, i can't speak for McD. i can only speak for myself.

2013:
The first order of business is drafting a superstar. Did I see any superstar talents in 2013? No. Nerlens Noel? No. Michael Carter-Williams? No. Giannis and Gobert were long shots to become what they did. With the coach we had just hired, Jeff Hornacek, I'm not sure Giannis would have developed like he did in Milwaukee. The same can be said of Gobert. As player development goes, we have been bad at it. another way of looking at it is Len doesn't want to be great as much he needs to want to be great. he's good. the upside was there. honestly, only four players in the whole first round panned out. can't say i was expecting McD to hit a home run in his very first draft. still, i get why we went in that direction. it's not every day you have the opportunity to draft a big man as big as Len who can move like that.

2014:
we still needed a superstar. no one on the roster resembled that. TJ Warren already did one thing at an elite level. Gary Harris would've been nice, but hard to say he is on a superstar trajectory. it's pointless not to shoot for the stars when you have nothing preventing you from doing so. TJ Warren was our "what if this guy could be Adrian Dantley?" pick. that hasn't panned out, but it's not like TJ is a scrub. Ennis was a miss. I didn't know enough about him when he was drafted.

2015:
honestly, Devin Booker makes up for all our other misses. he does. did we need Alex Len to pan out? no. Chriss? no. Bender? no. why? because we have this dude. he's going to prove a lot of people wrong very soon.

2016:
you need a second guy. did I see a superstar in Hield or Murray? no. do I? no, not yet. I don't see it with Murray or Hield. some people tell me he could be. i don't SEE it. Chriss and Bender were nice experiments at a time when we didn't have anything better to do. we weren't going to win 50 games for at least another two seasons. there was no reason not to wait on upside, instead of cashing in on B+ talent. i get the move. it didn't work out, but i get it. at this point, though, there's no downside. look at the roster. we don't need them to contribute. we're doing OK now.

2017:
Josh still has a future in this league. up to him if he wants to be all he can be.

2018:
the number one overall pick is impressive. i'm looking forward to the season.

[Revived]

Even if Ayton pans out well, if Bridges and Jackson bust, then it's an automatic F imo.

[gaspar]

A

The only thing that matters is that he drafted 2 guys who will be top-10 players in the league in the future.

[bwgood77]

Even if Ayton pans out well, if Bridges and Jackson bust, then it's an automatic F imo.

I have a real hard time believing Bridges would bust, based on his metrics and numbers on a championship team in college for 2 years. I think they are really just trying to feature Jackson right now...and hope he improves.

I think Jackson might need to be sixth man or something though...he is very selfish...he takes tons of shots...I know he has gotten assists but those are pretty much all to Ayton. Though if a guy like Bridges who is projected to be the best 3 pt shooter in this draft class plays with Jackson in the second unit, maybe that doesn't work either.

So far, it just doesn't appear Jackson is an NBA level scoring talent..people can cite PPG but if those come at almost league worst efficiency, that is just shooting your team out of games. He may need to become a Roberson type....though that's a tall order too on the defensive end.

I really thought his offense might look better.

[bwgood77]

A

The only thing that matters is that he drafted 2 guys who will be top-10 players in the league in the future.

Wow, didn't think you were high on Ayton...thought you had him behind Doncic, Young and maybe even Sexton. But I imagine he is one of the two you are talking about.

I am surprised you think both will be top 10 players in the league, but encouraged you feel so since you seem very knowledgeable.

[8on]

the fallacy is “always pick the best combination of NBA readiness and upside, you can always trade them later.” That doesn’t work, because if they’re good, you’ll be reluctant to trade them, you’ll want to wait to see how good they can be, and then you’ll pay for potential. If the potential doesn’t work out, you’re stuck with a huge contract. See: Blazers, Jazz, Bucks, Wolves

the goal is no longer to get all the really good players (remember when people wanted to trade for Rodney Hood?) the goal is to get at least two superstars. everything else can be had in free agency or through the draft. without finding two superstars, you’re wasting your time. a team projected to win 55 games, after injuries, bad chemistry, bad fit, bad new coach, etc., turns into a 37 win team in no time.

better to aim high than aim for the 8th seed, especially if general NBA fans and the league office don’t care about your team.

I’m hoping to avoid the fate of Charlotte or Detroit. That’s my worst case scenario. I can live with tanking; tanking gets you Embiid, Simmons and Ayton. I can’t live with getting Giannis, and then wasting his prime on first round exits. That, I cannot do.

[Jdiddy701]

Man, drafting is a crap shoot. It’s tough. I don’t blame any GM for picking the wrong player or passing up on a guy.

Only pick I blame him for is Dragan Bender. While Dragan still might pan out, no way in hell do I draft an international player averaging 4pts with the fourth pick. Not happening!

Just look how difficult it is for us fans to know who would we pick if we were the GM.

Boston and LAL are the only two teams that come to mind that have done a good job at drafting as of late.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gaspar]

A

The only thing that matters is that he drafted 2 guys who will be top-10 players in the league in the future.

Wow, didn't think you were high on Ayton...thought you had him behind Doncic, Young and maybe even Sexton. But I imagine he is one of the two you are talking about.

I am surprised you think both will be top 10 players in the league, but encouraged you feel so since you seem very knowledgeable.

I've changed my mind on Ayton and Sexton (still like him a lot) in June/July, when I had more time to watch their full games in college and I've been very impressed with Deandre during the Summer League and preseason.

[8on]

can I brag about the fact that I wanted no part of Bender, or is now not a good time

[jcsunsfan]

The draft that got the Suns absolutely raving reviews (besides this years draft) was the Bender, Chriss, Ulis draft. Most experts gave them A's. Just goes to show that for the most part, its a crap shoot. You kind of know who will excel, but not for sure. For every Greek Freak, there is a Bender.

That sounds like I just said something really nasty.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

can I brag about the fact that I wanted no part of Bender, or is now not a good time

I mean, he looked better than Josh Jackson last night. How'd you feel about JJ? I wasn't a fan of either pre-draft, though I became fans of both after the fact. Right now, for the most part, I'm just shocked at their lack of progress.

[DirtyDez]

A

The only thing that matters is that he drafted 2 guys who will be top-10 players in the league in the future.

Very similar to Steve Keim. No matter how many busts you draft, hitting on a franchise QB is all that will be remembered. If Ayton pans out that two potential superstars. How many current GM’s have drafted two that are currently playing together?

[bwgood77]

Very similar to Steve Keim. No matter how many busts you draft, hitting on a franchise QB is all that will be remembered. If Ayton pans out that two potential superstars. How many current GM’s have drafted two that are currently playing together?

Well Hinkie did it, but he's not current, and certainly is remember by Philly fans. Bob Myers did it. Dennis Lindsay probably. Tim Connelly has made a bunch of good draft picks not drafting real high other than Jamal Murray...got Nurkic in late first, Jokic in 2nd, Harris late first. A lot of people seem to think Tatum and Brown could be stars....but regardless, Ainge has obviously been a good GM...good chance they end up with Barrett or Reddish or someone else this year with their Kings pick.

Then there is the budding superstar duo of Fox and Bagley from Vlade's astute drafting.

A lot of people are high on Isaac/Gobert....those guys drafted Giannis also in Milwaukee.

Of course the list goes on with the latest bad teams high picks....Doncic and DSJr maybe.

But I'd say hit/miss ratio based on where you picked, McD isn't great. Maybe it doesn't matter, and that was Hinkie's philsophy..you will miss, like he did with Okafor and Noel...and technically he didn't draft Simmons. Some Sixers fans say he wanted KP over Okafor too.

[WeekapaugGroove]

It hasn't been good enough.. period. You can find reasoning for nearly every pick and no gm gets all his picks right but ultimately after 5 drafts the results are the results and you need to hit on more than mcd has.

Judging picks on what the draftnics viewed them at the time is crap. GMs are paid a lot of money to scout these players and know more than the media. If that wasn't the case and I owner would just not have a gm and take the best available on the draft express board.

The other huge red flag that tells me this scouting group isn't good enough is in 5 years they have only picked one guy (Bogdan) outside the lotto who is a real player. Then they traded him for a bust. Odds say you don't hit on a ton late but to not hit on any so far is a failure.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[Kerrsed]

Im sorry, but to me, trying to grade a GM based on his draft record is a bit....... frivolous and flawed.

To me, its all about players going into the right situations, and development is a huge part of it as well. Thats why i cant get behind the "We drafted Chriss, but Dejounte Murray is a stud and we could have drafted him" type of talk. Look, i was one of Murray's biggest supporters and wanted the Chriss/Murray combo here in Phoenix, but Murray barely played and played like ass in the limited minutes he got for the first couple of seasons (While Chriss actually produced on the court). He sat on the bench of the Spurs for a good 3 seasons, and now is playing pretty good.....after spending 3 years under the leagues best coach developing as a player. Would he have been the same player here? Hell no, we didnt have a Coach Pop.

Reminds me of people being pissed that we didnt keep Rondo after we drafted him years ago. Im a big Rondo guy, and was upset we didnt keep him, but would he have been the same player for us that he was with the Celtics? F NO! He would have rotted away on our bench stuck behind Steve Nash and Barbosa, while he was able to develop at such a high pace because the Celtics were able to give him the start damn near right away and because of who Rondo is and the type of player he is, he benefited hugely from being thrust into the fire of playing major minutes in real games, accelerating his development. Some players develop better coming along slowly, learning the game and its nuances before being thrown to the wolves, others need to be thrown out there and learn from first hand experience.

Thats why you really cant say things like "I give our GM this grade because he drafted this player and these other players turned out so much better". Would those players have turned out that much better if they were here? Would they have turned out just as good being on a different team with different players running a different system with a different philosophy? You really cant say yes because its impossible to know. Thats why rookies and their agents have smartened up. Pre-draft all you hear is "I dont care how high i get drafted, its all about fit". Because they want to go to a team that fits them, one that makes them the turn into the player that people are banking on them to be.

Another example is the Sixers and Noel/Okafor. I dont think Noel or Okafor turn into the "Busts" that people label them if they didnt get picked by the Sixers. If Noel got drafted by the Spurs....man, i think he would have turned into a dominant Gobert type of player. Okafors biggest knock has always been his defense.....but isnt that also Towns knock as well? The difference between the two is coaching and the teams system and player development. Confidence also plays a huge role as well. KAT is confident in himself, while Okafor was stuck being labeled as the worst C on the roster behind Embiid (Who only played a handful of games at the time) and Noel. He played on the worst team in the League which set NBA records for losing. If that kid was on a better team in a better situation, who knows, he could have been the player that KAT is today.

So yeah, i just dont see the point in using a draft record as some sort of barometer for how smart/psychic a GM is, because once the GM selects the player, all the other factors are pretty much out of his hands on whether or not the player Booms or Busts.