Wiz sign Jeff Green to 1 year deal

[payitforward]

I think this is an underrated signing. Jeff has playoff experience and is still a solid player. In game 7 of the ECF he put up 19 points. He battled defensively with Horford, killed the Celtics in transition and scored in the low post vs Brown. I'm not sure if Brooks will give him the oppurtunity, but Green is good enough to beat out Morris for the 4....

First off, Jeff Green had a terrific game 7 vs. the Celtics. He went 7-14 & had 8 rebounds in 42 minutes -- not a real big number, but way way better than his average. Unfortunately, however, you are cherry-picking: In the other 3 Cavs wins in that series, Green played 59 minutes, went 7-19, & had 9 rebounds.

So, which is the real Jeff Green? That's easy. Neither of them. The real Jeff Green is conveyed in his numbers on the season.

Last year, Jeff got a total of 5.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. Are you sure he should start at the 4 instead of Morris?

Green had his best year by far as a scorer last year -- his 3d best in points per 40 minutes & his all time best TS%. He wasn't as good as Mike Scott; he wasn't nearly as good as Otto Porter. But, still, he was d*mn good. B/c he is a terrible 3 pt. shooter (31% last year), he did it by a) shooting the 2 at a completely outlier rate of 54% (compared to under 47% the other 9 years of his career) & b) getting to the line a little more than his average -- & shooting a career high 86.8%.

In his 9 previous years, Jeff Green had reached 50% on 2-pointers only once. As we know from Dat & pcbothwei, he isn't going to repeat that. Someone might look at his shot breakdown to figure out why, in his 1 year playing with LeBron, that % was so outlandishly high.

Still, he had a good scoring year last year. Unfortunately the rest of his numbers were pretty awful: not only isn't Jeff Green "still a solid player," he wasn't a solid player last year & he has never been a solid player in his 10 years in the NBA. That is why Green was available at the veteran minimum -- this year, last year, & the year before.

Shouldn't this be kind of obvious?

OTOH, he did have a very good game 7 vs. the Celtics. If you have to bring in a veteran minimum player at forward, Jeff Green isn't the worst choice.

[FAH1223]

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[NatP4]

I think this is an underrated signing. Jeff has playoff experience and is still a solid player. In game 7 of the ECF he put up 19 points. He battled defensively with Horford, killed the Celtics in transition and scored in the low post vs Brown. I'm not sure if Brooks will give him the oppurtunity, but Green is good enough to beat out Morris for the 4....

First off, Jeff Green had a terrific game 7 vs. the Celtics. He went 7-14 & had 8 rebounds in 42 minutes -- not a real big number, but way way better than his average. Unfortunately, however, you are cherry-picking: In the other 3 Cavs wins in that series, Green played 59 minutes, went 7-19, & had 9 rebounds.

So, which is the real Jeff Green? That's easy. Neither of them. The real Jeff Green is conveyed in his numbers on the season.

Last year, Jeff got a total of 5.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. Are you sure he should start at the 4 instead of Morris?

Green had his best year by far as a scorer last year -- his 3d best in points per 40 minutes & his all time best TS%. He wasn't as good as Mike Scott; he wasn't nearly as good as Otto Porter. But, still, he was d*mn good. B/c he is a terrible 3 pt. shooter (31% last year), he did it by a) shooting the 2 at a completely outlier rate of 54% (compared to under 47% the other 9 years of his career) & b) getting to the line a little more than his average -- & shooting a career high 86.8%.

In his 9 previous years, Jeff Green had reached 50% on 2-pointers only once. As we know from Dat & pcbothwei, he isn't going to repeat that. Someone might look at his shot breakdown to figure out why, in his 1 year playing with LeBron, that % was so outlandishly high.

Still, he had a good scoring year last year. Unfortunately the rest of his numbers were pretty awful: not only isn't Jeff Green "still a solid player," he wasn't a solid player last year & he has never been a solid player in his 10 years in the NBA. That is why Green was available at the veteran minimum -- this year, last year, & the year before.

Shouldn't this be kind of obvious?

OTOH, he did have a very good game 7 vs. the Celtics. If you have to bring in a veteran minimum player at forward, Jeff Green isn't the worst choice.

Ok, now let’s hear some analysis of his defense, go!

[payitforward]

I think this is an underrated signing. Jeff has playoff experience and is still a solid player. In game 7 of the ECF he put up 19 points. He battled defensively with Horford, killed the Celtics in transition and scored in the low post vs Brown. I'm not sure if Brooks will give him the oppurtunity, but Green is good enough to beat out Morris for the 4....

First off, Jeff Green had a terrific game 7 vs. the Celtics. He went 7-14 & had 8 rebounds in 42 minutes -- not a real big number, but way way better than his average. Unfortunately, however, you are cherry-picking: In the other 3 Cavs wins in that series, Green played 59 minutes, went 7-19, & had 9 rebounds.

So, which is the real Jeff Green? That's easy. Neither of them. The real Jeff Green is conveyed in his numbers on the season.

Last year, Jeff got a total of 5.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. Are you sure he should start at the 4 instead of Morris?

Green had his best year by far as a scorer last year -- his 3d best in points per 40 minutes & his all time best TS%. He wasn't as good as Mike Scott; he wasn't nearly as good as Otto Porter. But, still, he was d*mn good. B/c he is a terrible 3 pt. shooter (31% last year), he did it by a) shooting the 2 at a completely outlier rate of 54% (compared to under 47% the other 9 years of his career) & b) getting to the line a little more than his average -- & shooting a career high 86.8%.

In his 9 previous years, Jeff Green had reached 50% on 2-pointers only once. As we know from Dat & pcbothwei, he isn't going to repeat that. Someone might look at his shot breakdown to figure out why, in his 1 year playing with LeBron, that % was so outlandishly high.

Still, he had a good scoring year last year. Unfortunately the rest of his numbers were pretty awful: not only isn't Jeff Green "still a solid player," he wasn't a solid player last year & he has never been a solid player in his 10 years in the NBA. That is why Green was available at the veteran minimum -- this year, last year, & the year before.

Shouldn't this be kind of obvious?

OTOH, he did have a very good game 7 vs. the Celtics. If you have to bring in a veteran minimum player at forward, Jeff Green isn't the worst choice.

Ok, now let’s hear some analysis of his defense, go!

Nat, you don't have the slightest analysis of Jeff's defense to offer on your own. None at all. Where would you start? Would you just repeat some DRPM number from a list at espn.com? Without any idea of how it's calculated? Yeah you would. Since you have for other players.

Means nothing. But, still, lets start there -- just to close this pint-sized loop of yours. & in fairness to Jeff Green, lets look at his DRPM over the last 5 seasons. For whatever reason, the NBA counts him as a small forward in this measure. So, year by year where does he rank among the small forwards:

2013-14 -- #21 out of 38
2014-15 -- #43 out of 50
2015-16 -- #43 out of 57
2016-17 -- #59 out of 71
2017-18 -- #38 out of 87

On average, that makes him the #40 defender out of 60. Now, maybe I'm missing something, but right off I don't see that as a good average rating.

Still, maybe SFs are just really good defenders, so what his Jeff's average numerical rating over those 5 years. Well, according to these numbers, Jeff average annual numerical DRPM = -.914 (don't miss that minus sign, please).

Just for a quick comparison, last year Otto Porter was +2.05.

Now that we know that DRPM makes Jeff Green looks like a terrible defender, can we go on to conclude that this is true -- as if, having looked at these numbers, we know that he really is a poor defender?

Well, I'm sure Nat can -- after all, he has quoted DRPM numbers repeatedly to support players he likes (Sato in particular). And if good DRPM numbers & ratings tell you that a player is good, then surely bad DRPM numbers and rating must tell you that a player is bad -- isn't that so, Nat?

You don't mind being consistent, do you Nat? In your book, Jeff Green is a pretty bad defender, isn't he, Nat?

Me, however, I can't say that. I can't draw that conclusion, because I don't know how those numerical ratings are calculated. & I don't rely on numbers I don't understand. So, I'm not going to draw that conclusion.

But, Nat, that is what the DRPM numbers tell you, isn't it? That Jeff Green is a bad defender.

Or do they tell you instead that Jeff Green is a good defender? If so, I'm sure we'd all love to hear why -- so, as you might put it, "Go."

[payitforward]

I let myself react to Nat's "defense" jibe -- that was silly. Apologies, Nat.

Jeff's basic numbers give you a good idea of what kind of player he is, & they support the fact that he's become a veteran minimum kind of guy. But, it's also fair to ask about his defense, a lot of which won't show up in many of those numbers.

Going off of DRPM, one would conclude that he's a below-average defender. The problem is that DRPM is mystery meat; we have no idea how it's calculated. We have the conclusion, but we have no idea of the numbers or the reasoning that went into reaching it.

I wouldn't be willing to say anything conclusive based on this kind of magic formula. The farthest I can imagine going would be to say that his way below average DRPM over the last 5 seasons would make a person doubt that he is a really good defender.

Overall, guys who become available at a veteran minimum salary aren't very good. If they turn out to be good, then teams try to lock them up -- ergo they stop being veteran minimum players.

The Wizards will be Jeff Green's 6th team since the start of the 2014-15 season. Draw your own conclusion.

[nuposse04]

Uhhh, I wouldn't use any metric that counts Green as a SF. He is strictly a 4 at this point, even a 5 in some scenarios. BR has 79% of his mans at the 4, 18 at the 5 and 3% at the 3.

Maybe his player tracking data would serve better.

[payitforward]

Uhhh, I wouldn't use any metric that counts Green as a SF. He is strictly a 4 at this point, even a 5 in some scenarios. BR has 79% of his mans at the 4, 18 at the 5 and 3% at the 3.

Maybe his player tracking data would serve better.

I agree. But you don't help shine a positive light on his defense by putting his DRPM up against 4s instead of 3s. His DRPM would make him #49 among 83 guys at that spot.

[NatP4]

Mike Scott was 76th out of 82 PFs in DRPM. Lower win shares, lower BPM, lower VORP. Negative net rating compared to Green’s +4.1 net rating.

No one said Jeff Green was a “good defender”, he ranked 38 out of 87 SFs in DRPM, which is pretty average, compare that to Mike Scott who is absolutely terrible on defense, it’s an obvious upgrade.

We are talking about a vet minimum backup PF. You can do a lot worse than a guy who put up 3.9 win shares, a positive VORP, a 15 PER, 58 TS%, 26th in RPM at his position.

[payitforward]

Mike Scott was 76th out of 82 PFs in DRPM. Lower win shares, lower BPM, lower VORP. Negative net rating compared to Green’s +4.1 net rating.

No one said Jeff Green was a “good defender”, he ranked 38 out of 87 SFs in DRPM, which is pretty average, compare that to Mike Scott who is absolutely terrible on defense, it’s an obvious upgrade.

We are talking about a vet minimum backup PF. You can do a lot worse than a guy who put up 3.9 win shares, a positive VORP, a 15 PER, 58 TS%, 26th in RPM at his position.

Well, you are certainly right that Mike Scott is a terrible player. You are also right that last year, Jeff Green had a better DRPM than Mike Scott.

You go on to say that as a defender Green "is pretty average" whereas Mike Scott "is absolutely terrible on defense." I take it that you are relying on DRPM as evidence that this statement is correct. Here is the problem with that:

In 2014-15, Jeff Green's DRPM was -2.05; Mike's was -1.44
In 2015-16, Jeff Green's DRPM was -1.06; Mike's was +0.99
(Note: we can't compare the 2 guys for 2016-17, because Mike only played 195 minutes)

In other words, if we are to rely on DRPM, then we have to conclude that maybe Mike Scott is the better defender?

Yet, Nat, I'm not actually suggesting that, & I'm not arguing with you, because...
In 2013-14, Jeff Green's DRPM was -.27; Mike's was -2.46

Yikes! DRPM numbers are all over the map! To me, they vary so much that I can't see how they can possibly mean anything at all. Above all, I don't think we can conclude from DRPM that Jeff Green has been "pretty average" on defense. After all, if you add all the players ranked SF in those 5 years, the total is 303. If you add all Jeff's numerical rankings across those years, the total is 205.

Once again -- I'm not using DRPM to draw a conclusion about Jeff Green's defense. & I'm not arguing w/ you about who is or isn't the better or worse defender between these two guys -- you may well be right.

I don't see how DRPM tells us anything like that -- or anything else! Yet, if a person claims "oh yes it does; it's reliable," then the only thing it can tell that person is that Jeff Green is a poor defender, in the bottom 1/3 at his position.

[nate33]

3 games into the preseason, and Jeff Green is looking like a very good addition. He looks like the veteran role player, jack-of-all-trades guy we saw in Cleveland last year, not the disappointing, never-lived-up-to-his-draft-position, low efficiency scorer from years past.

He's going to be a guy we are comfortable playing crunch time. He also looks a bit bigger and more muscular than last year, ready to be a full time PF instead of a tweener.

[80sballboy]

3 games into the preseason, and Jeff Green is looking like a very good addition. He looks like the veteran role player jack-of-all-trades guy we saw in Cleveland last year, not the disappointing, never-lived-up-to-his-draft-position low efficiency scorer from years past.

He's going to be a guy we are comfortable playing crunch time. He also looks a bit bigger and more muscular than last year, ready to be a full time PF instead of a tweener.

He actually looks better as a starter playing with Wall and gives us more length and athleticsm over Kieff. But it does take away from the bench. With Howard out, I'd rather have him playing center off the bench than Jason Smith. Also don't mind him playing in crunch time and you know he's not going to be a loose cannon like Kieff, picking up techs like they are going out of style.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I really liked Green and Porter on the court at the same time.

A lot of back door cuts, good unselfish play.

[NatP4]

Great leadership. You could hear it all night. I like this signing a lot already.

[payitforward]

Hard to argue with 5-7 & 7-10 in the last two games. His pre-season play is certain good for a veteran minimum player!

But, of course, in both those games we were playing a bad team & some of their best players never saw the floor. So, as I said in another thread, there's nothing here to lead one to any positive conclusion for the whole season.

Still, playing well is preferable to playing badly! So, good for Jeff. Lets see what he does in the coming weeks.

[dckingsfan]

Only thing I didn't like - Green took more shots than Porter, guess that is a nit though.

[prime1time]

It's early but I like what I've seen with him. It's weird to think about but with Green starting we actually have a pretty solid group of decision makers on the floor. Beal, Porter and Green all play the game with high iq. Rarely do they ever force shots. I'd love to see Green start. He's better at attacking the hoop than Morris. He's a solid shooter and he can initiate the offense. At the very least I'd like to see Green run point forward when he's in the game. Not all the time, but his versatility is a weapon.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Hard to argue with 5-7 & 7-10 in the last two games. His pre-season play is certain good for a veteran minimum player!

But, of course, in both those games we were playing a bad team & some of their best players never saw the floor. So, as I said in another thread, there's nothing here to lead one to any positive conclusion for the whole season.

Still, playing well is preferable to playing badly! So, good for Jeff. Lets see what he does in the coming weeks.

Killjoy

[Ruzious]

I think this is an underrated signing. Jeff has playoff experience and is still a solid player. In game 7 of the ECF he put up 19 points. He battled defensively with Horford, killed the Celtics in transition and scored in the low post vs Brown. I'm not sure if Brooks will give him the oppurtunity, but Green is good enough to beat out Morris for the 4....

First off, Jeff Green had a terrific game 7 vs. the Celtics. He went 7-14 & had 8 rebounds in 42 minutes -- not a real big number, but way way better than his average. Unfortunately, however, you are cherry-picking: In the other 3 Cavs wins in that series, Green played 59 minutes, went 7-19, & had 9 rebounds.

So, which is the real Jeff Green? That's easy. Neither of them. The real Jeff Green is conveyed in his numbers on the season.

Last year, Jeff got a total of 5.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. Are you sure he should start at the 4 instead of Morris?

Green had his best year by far as a scorer last year -- his 3d best in points per 40 minutes & his all time best TS%. He wasn't as good as Mike Scott; he wasn't nearly as good as Otto Porter. But, still, he was d*mn good. B/c he is a terrible 3 pt. shooter (31% last year), he did it by a) shooting the 2 at a completely outlier rate of 54% (compared to under 47% the other 9 years of his career) & b) getting to the line a little more than his average -- & shooting a career high 86.8%.

In his 9 previous years, Jeff Green had reached 50% on 2-pointers only once. As we know from Dat & pcbothwei, he isn't going to repeat that. Someone might look at his shot breakdown to figure out why, in his 1 year playing with LeBron, that % was so outlandishly high.

Still, he had a good scoring year last year. Unfortunately the rest of his numbers were pretty awful: not only isn't Jeff Green "still a solid player," he wasn't a solid player last year & he has never been a solid player in his 10 years in the NBA. That is why Green was available at the veteran minimum -- this year, last year, & the year before.

Shouldn't this be kind of obvious?

OTOH, he did have a very good game 7 vs. the Celtics. If you have to bring in a veteran minimum player at forward, Jeff Green isn't the worst choice.

He's a jump shooter, and most jump shooters don't make more than 50% of their 2's. Beal's lifetime % on 2's is 47.4.

[dckingsfan]

Our choice is Green or Morris as our starting PF

[NatP4]

Our choice is Green or Morris as our starting PF

Porter