2018 Offseason Thread

[slick_watts]

Is Abrines extension elligible? If so when would be the deadline for them to come to an agreement and has that date already passed? Hard to think he's part of the long term plans at this point.

Was wondering this myself.

my understanding is since he is not on rookie scale, he can be extended to a 'veteran extension'. so the deadline is june 30 of next year.

there's no real incentive for either side to pursue an extension imo. the maximum he could start at is somewhere around $10 million, i think. alex has a lot to prove to get to that number.

[Kizz Fastfists]

there's no real incentive for either side to pursue an extension imo. the maximum he could start at is somewhere around $10 million, i think. alex has a lot to prove to get to that number.

I don't see the upside for OKC in extending Abrines at this point. There are way too many questions about the wings right now to know if Abrines is going to be wanted/needed long-term. There is still a non 0 chance that Roberson comes back as an elite defender. Ferguson and/or Diallo could step up and earn a significant role. Schroder could suddenly make 3s and play defense and secure a lot of wing minutes going forward.

As nothing more than a 38% 3pt shooter, which Abrins has been the last two years on 468 total attempts, Abrines is worth around $8.5M/yr in the NBA. I don't see him signing for that at this point knowing that is about his floor. If his defense improves he suddenly becomes a $12-15M/yr type of player. OKC shouldn't give him the $12M/yr at this point and Abrines shouldn't sign for less than that today. I see Abrines in a spot like Grant was in a year ago where he can really only increase his value this year. Compared to Roberson two years ago who lost value by having worse struggles than anticipated on offense. Grant improved and got more than I think he is worth. Roberson didn't improve and got about what he was worth. I hope Abrines improves and forces a $14M/yr contract, but if he's just a 3pt shooter that offers basically nothing else, including defense, then he's a taxpayer MLE type of guy at $8.5M/yr.

[RalphSampsonJr]

there's no real incentive for either side to pursue an extension imo. the maximum he could start at is somewhere around $10 million, i think. alex has a lot to prove to get to that number.

I don't see the upside for OKC in extending Abrines at this point. There are way too many questions about the wings right now to know if Abrines is going to be wanted/needed long-term. There is still a non 0 chance that Roberson comes back as an elite defender. Ferguson and/or Diallo could step up and earn a significant role. Schroder could suddenly make 3s and play defense and secure a lot of wing minutes going forward.

As nothing more than a 38% 3pt shooter, which Abrins has been the last two years on 468 total attempts, Abrines is worth around $8.5M/yr in the NBA. I don't see him signing for that at this point knowing that is about his floor. If his defense improves he suddenly becomes a $12-15M/yr type of player. OKC shouldn't give him the $12M/yr at this point and Abrines shouldn't sign for less than that today. I see Abrines in a spot like Grant was in a year ago where he can really only increase his value this year. Compared to Roberson two years ago who lost value by having worse struggles than anticipated on offense. Grant improved and got more than I think he is worth. Roberson didn't improve and got about what he was worth. I hope Abrines improves and forces a $14M/yr contract, but if he's just a 3pt shooter that offers basically nothing else, including defense, then he's a taxpayer MLE type of guy at $8.5M/yr.

Abrines might have a lil power here though.. on a team where shooting is so thin is Sam willing to give him a lil extra just to keep him?
after PG he is literally the only other guy that is consistent from 3pt land. does Sam send him away and bet on next years market for a Bullock/Ellington type or play it safe and sign him to one of those player option deals he likes to throw out so much?

[bondom34]

there's no real incentive for either side to pursue an extension imo. the maximum he could start at is somewhere around $10 million, i think. alex has a lot to prove to get to that number.

I don't see the upside for OKC in extending Abrines at this point. There are way too many questions about the wings right now to know if Abrines is going to be wanted/needed long-term. There is still a non 0 chance that Roberson comes back as an elite defender. Ferguson and/or Diallo could step up and earn a significant role. Schroder could suddenly make 3s and play defense and secure a lot of wing minutes going forward.

As nothing more than a 38% 3pt shooter, which Abrins has been the last two years on 468 total attempts, Abrines is worth around $8.5M/yr in the NBA. I don't see him signing for that at this point knowing that is about his floor. If his defense improves he suddenly becomes a $12-15M/yr type of player. OKC shouldn't give him the $12M/yr at this point and Abrines shouldn't sign for less than that today. I see Abrines in a spot like Grant was in a year ago where he can really only increase his value this year. Compared to Roberson two years ago who lost value by having worse struggles than anticipated on offense. Grant improved and got more than I think he is worth. Roberson didn't improve and got about what he was worth. I hope Abrines improves and forces a $14M/yr contract, but if he's just a 3pt shooter that offers basically nothing else, including defense, then he's a taxpayer MLE type of guy at $8.5M/yr.

Abrines might have a lil power here though.. on a team where shooting is so thin is Sam willing to give him a lil extra just to keep him?
after PG he is literally the only other guy that is consistent from 3pt land. does Sam send him away and bet on next years market for a Bullock/Ellington type or play it safe and sign him to one of those player option deals he likes to throw out so much?

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

[RalphSampsonJr]

I don't see the upside for OKC in extending Abrines at this point. There are way too many questions about the wings right now to know if Abrines is going to be wanted/needed long-term. There is still a non 0 chance that Roberson comes back as an elite defender. Ferguson and/or Diallo could step up and earn a significant role. Schroder could suddenly make 3s and play defense and secure a lot of wing minutes going forward.

As nothing more than a 38% 3pt shooter, which Abrins has been the last two years on 468 total attempts, Abrines is worth around $8.5M/yr in the NBA. I don't see him signing for that at this point knowing that is about his floor. If his defense improves he suddenly becomes a $12-15M/yr type of player. OKC shouldn't give him the $12M/yr at this point and Abrines shouldn't sign for less than that today. I see Abrines in a spot like Grant was in a year ago where he can really only increase his value this year. Compared to Roberson two years ago who lost value by having worse struggles than anticipated on offense. Grant improved and got more than I think he is worth. Roberson didn't improve and got about what he was worth. I hope Abrines improves and forces a $14M/yr contract, but if he's just a 3pt shooter that offers basically nothing else, including defense, then he's a taxpayer MLE type of guy at $8.5M/yr.

Abrines might have a lil power here though.. on a team where shooting is so thin is Sam willing to give him a lil extra just to keep him?
after PG he is literally the only other guy that is consistent from 3pt land. does Sam send him away and bet on next years market for a Bullock/Ellington type or play it safe and sign him to one of those player option deals he likes to throw out so much?

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

Yet OKC havent

[retrobro90]

I don't see the upside for OKC in extending Abrines at this point. There are way too many questions about the wings right now to know if Abrines is going to be wanted/needed long-term. There is still a non 0 chance that Roberson comes back as an elite defender. Ferguson and/or Diallo could step up and earn a significant role. Schroder could suddenly make 3s and play defense and secure a lot of wing minutes going forward.

As nothing more than a 38% 3pt shooter, which Abrins has been the last two years on 468 total attempts, Abrines is worth around $8.5M/yr in the NBA. I don't see him signing for that at this point knowing that is about his floor. If his defense improves he suddenly becomes a $12-15M/yr type of player. OKC shouldn't give him the $12M/yr at this point and Abrines shouldn't sign for less than that today. I see Abrines in a spot like Grant was in a year ago where he can really only increase his value this year. Compared to Roberson two years ago who lost value by having worse struggles than anticipated on offense. Grant improved and got more than I think he is worth. Roberson didn't improve and got about what he was worth. I hope Abrines improves and forces a $14M/yr contract, but if he's just a 3pt shooter that offers basically nothing else, including defense, then he's a taxpayer MLE type of guy at $8.5M/yr.

Abrines might have a lil power here though.. on a team where shooting is so thin is Sam willing to give him a lil extra just to keep him?
after PG he is literally the only other guy that is consistent from 3pt land. does Sam send him away and bet on next years market for a Bullock/Ellington type or play it safe and sign him to one of those player option deals he likes to throw out so much?

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

100%, dom. Guards whose whole game is shoot and play mediocre D are a dime a dozen. I love Abrines as a personality but we could bring in Troy Daniels and have almost the exact same result. Alex is 25 too. Not gonna magically change his body into an ultra quick/strong defender at this point. Kizz I'm not sure how you wound up at the full MLE for Abrines' value (8.5mil, the tax payer MLE is only 5.3). Either way no chance he gets that from us.

[bondom34]

Abrines might have a lil power here though.. on a team where shooting is so thin is Sam willing to give him a lil extra just to keep him?
after PG he is literally the only other guy that is consistent from 3pt land. does Sam send him away and bet on next years market for a Bullock/Ellington type or play it safe and sign him to one of those player option deals he likes to throw out so much?

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

Yet OKC havent

That's more an indictment on Abrines being signed long term. Troy Daniels, Joe Harris was on one, Marshon Brooks, Nick Young, etc. These guys who just shoot and do nothing else are around.

[RalphSampsonJr]

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

Yet OKC havent

That's more an indictment on Abrines being signed long term. Troy Daniels, Joe Harris was on one, Marshon Brooks, Nick Young, etc. These guys who just shoot and do nothing else are around.

Yea sorry i thought you wrote a player like ellington is available for the min every year..

Dont get me wrong im not keen on Sam keeping Abrines. just thinking he might be willing to throw a lil money at him as he keeps striking out on getting this team any shooting

[bondom34]

Yet OKC havent

That's more an indictment on Abrines being signed long term. Troy Daniels, Joe Harris was on one, Marshon Brooks, Nick Young, etc. These guys who just shoot and do nothing else are around.

Yea sorry i thought you wrote a player like ellington is available for the min every year..

Dont get me wrong im not keen on Sam keeping Abrines. just thinking he might be willing to throw a lil money at him as he keeps striking out on getting this team any shooting

I can't see it. It would be the next Singler contract, but you could see that one coming.

[Kizz Fastfists]

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

I think that is slight hyperbole. You can find a replacement for the bi-annual and/or taxpayer's MLE every year. Abrines was 63rd in the NBA in 3pt% last year at 38%. I don't think anyone above him is on a minimum deal, but you have several guys like PatPat, Doug McDermott, Reggie Bullock, Bjelica, etc., etc. that are on tax payer MLE and smaller deals.

That was my point about the Thunder having no upside in extending him, but if Abrines improves either as a ball handler and passer or on defense then he could jump up past tax payer's MLE money a bit. I think Abrines will get around the tax payer's MLE, $5.5M but could get the full MLE from someone of $8.5M. If he shows improvement then he could end up looking at some team foolishly giving him $12-15M. I say foolishly because I consider any contract outside of a max and an exception to a FA to be foolish.

Ideally, you are only signing max FAs to push your team to a new tier or MLE guys to round out your depth. Locking up cap space on players in the $10-20M range prevents max signings in the future and generally doesn't make your team better unless you are in a rare place where you have 3-4 future max contracts on their rookie deals and are spending as much as you can for a 2nd tier FA type to be a significant role player. The exception is in keeping your own talent. In theory, as a contender you are over the cap so using bird rights to give a guy a $15M/yr deal doesn't hurt your pursuit of other players and keeping your known quantity is generally better than gambling on another player fitting even for a few dollars less. It is only in theory because sometimes a snake runs off and you suddenly wish you had that cap space, but you can't run a team expecting everyone to be a little girl running off to their daddy in the city by the bay.

Yes, I put the wrong amount in my first post. It should have been $5.5M not $8.5M.

[bondom34]

You can find a replacement for him for the minimum basically every year.

I think that is slight hyperbole. You can find a replacement for the bi-annual and/or taxpayer's MLE every year. Abrines was 63rd in the NBA in 3pt% last year at 38%. I don't think anyone above him is on a minimum deal, but you have several guys like PatPat, Doug McDermott, Reggie Bullock, Bjelica, etc., etc. that are on tax payer MLE and smaller deals.

That was my point about the Thunder having no upside in extending him, but if Abrines improves either as a ball handler and passer or on defense then he could jump up past tax payer's MLE money a bit. I think Abrines will get around the tax payer's MLE, $5.5M but could get the full MLE from someone of $8.5M. If he shows improvement then he could end up looking at some team foolishly giving him $12-15M. I say foolishly because I consider any contract outside of a max and an exception to a FA to be foolish.

Ideally, you are only signing max FAs to push your team to a new tier or MLE guys to round out your depth. Locking up cap space on players in the $10-20M range prevents max signings in the future and generally doesn't make your team better unless you are in a rare place where you have 3-4 future max contracts on their rookie deals and are spending as much as you can for a 2nd tier FA type to be a significant role player. The exception is in keeping your own talent. In theory, as a contender you are over the cap so using bird rights to give a guy a $15M/yr deal doesn't hurt your pursuit of other players and keeping your known quantity is generally better than gambling on another player fitting even for a few dollars less. It is only in theory because sometimes a snake runs off and you suddenly wish you had that cap space, but you can't run a team expecting everyone to be a little girl running off to their daddy in the city by the bay.

Yes, I put the wrong amount in my first post. It should have been $5.5M not $8.5M.

I'd feel confident with that for sure. I think you can strike gold on the min with a Daniels type, but that sorta money should definitely get a replacement.

[Pillendreher]

I just saw something on Thunder reddit:

The team that faces GSW in the season opener the past two years has been their WCF opponent

[slick_watts]

aside from anything else that has been mentioned, i don't think the thunder would consider extending abrines at all with another tax situation looming next summer, the solution to which will be mostly informed by how much value schroeder has when the time comes.

[Old Man Game]

Davis was still better than cage.

Wish you could listen to the radio broadcast synced with the TV coverage.

Cage is just terrible. The guy literally spent a good 5 minutes talking about a single floater that Felton hit in a preseason game. It was unreal.

'So that was floaters or "tear drops" as Michael likes to call them. Tune in next segment when he begins his 4 part exposition on finger rolls.'

[slick_watts]

is this a joke?

He struggles with one of the foundational pieces of basketball. “I’ve never in my career been a guy that’s been good at a play call,” George told The Oklahoman on Monday. “I’m a guy that likes to play random where defense doesn’t know what’s coming.” If this wasn’t readily apparent, Thunder coach Billy Donovan is OK with that. Since arriving in Oklahoma City in 2015, amid play calls, Donovan has tried to implement a malleable offense to his players’ approval.

[Pillendreher]

is this a joke?

He struggles with one of the foundational pieces of basketball. “I’ve never in my career been a guy that’s been good at a play call,” George told The Oklahoman on Monday. “I’m a guy that likes to play random where defense doesn’t know what’s coming.” If this wasn’t readily apparent, Thunder coach Billy Donovan is OK with that. Since arriving in Oklahoma City in 2015, amid play calls, Donovan has tried to implement a malleable offense to his players’ approval.

Order is for primitives; genius can handle chaos

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

Inside Top 10 on both sides of the floor. Offense feels a little

[Kizz Fastfists]

Order is for primitives; genius can handle chaos

Your few who create the "chaos" for the defense are also creating it for their "primitive" teammates which makes it counterproductive. Steph Curry is an example of a genius who understands the primitives and makes things work for them. PG is too primitive to understand order therefore he tries to create chaos for others, but only creates it for his own team. You have to dumb things down to the lowest common denominator when dealing with a group and every genius understands that and tries to simplify things as much as possible when explaining it to groups of variable intellect.

Unfortunately, OKC's lowest point of intelligence is the coach who doesn't understand the flaws with letting Russ and PG do whatever they want while the rest of the team ball watches. Maybe it should be "winning is for primitives; losers thrive on chaos". Michael Jordan ran a structured offense 95% of the time and only created the chaos when it was needed. MJ understood that if you are all chaos all the time you lose because not everyone could do what he could or see what he saw.

[Old Man Game]

Dude, Russ is going to murder with this new clear path rule. Could see him drawing 1-2 of those a game the way they are calling it now.