Wiz sign Jeff Green to 1 year deal

[payitforward]

In his long career, Jeff Green has played over 24,000 minutes. To know what we will get from him as a player all we have to do is look at his career numbers -- while we also check that he hasn't shown some pattern of improvement or decline over the years that would make the averages over the whole 24000 minutes less than meaningful.

In fact, as you would expect w/ a guy past his prime, Green's last 4 years weren't as good as the previous 4 years. OTOH, last year w/ Cleveland was the best of those 4 years. It wasn't as good overall as his career average, but it was close enough that we can just use that overall career without pegging him as significantly better than he's likely to be this year -- but we should still expect that he'll be somewhat less of a player than his career averages would indicate.

Make sense? So... lets look at what Jeff has given teams over the years:

Over that long career, Jeff has averaged 6 rebounds per 40 minutes. He was @10% below that last year. No, Jeff Green cannot be this team's starting 4. Or any team's starting 4.

How about scoring? On his career, Jeff Green has posted a below average 2 point %, a below average 3 point % & an above average FT %. The overall result has been a Total Scoring % that's below average (but not as bad as it would be w/o the good FT %).

Last year, however, his TS% was quite good -- way above his career average & significantly above average for an NBA 4 too. Why? Well, for one thing he's become a great FT shooter -- better than ever. But, that's actually not the reason.

Last year, Jeff was (as usual) a bad 3 pt. shooter. But, he posted a 2 point % unlike anything in his career ever. On his career prior to last year, Jeff was overall at 45% on 2 pt. FGs. With Cleveland last year, however, he shot 54% on 2s.

That's a complete outlier, nothing like any previous year. If you think he'll do it again, lets put some $$ on it, ok? As much as you'd like, & I'll give you two to one odds.

That's Jeff Green. The real Jeff Green. A guy who was never a good NBA player over his entire career & who is now a 32 year old veteran minimum player. He seems a really nice guy, & I'm glad he's a Wizard. I hope he stays with us for the rest of his career (as long as it's at the veteran minimum salary!).

He's no better than Mike Scott, but I'd rather have him than Mike. He has local ties, etc. Plus, as everybody knows, his presence makes the lock work more smoothly on the locker next to his. Something like that anyway...

[nate33]

Our choice is Green or Morris as our starting PF

Porter

Porter is starting anyway.

You mean Oubre. So our choice is Green, Morris or Oubre. I'd lean toward Jeff Green on that, based on his performance last year and so far this preseason. If PIF is right that we are more likely to see the Jeff Green of two years ago, then I'd probably go with Oubre.

[NatP4]

Our choice is Green or Morris as our starting PF

Porter

Porter is starting anyway.

You mean Oubre. So our choice is Green, Morris or Oubre. I'd lean toward Jeff Green on that, based on his performance last year and so far this preseason. If PIF is right that we are more likely to see the Jeff Green of two years ago, then I'd probably go with Oubre.

No, not at all. I mean Porter. Oubre is no power forward. The choice is Green, Morris, and Porter. There is no debating this. The numbers make it blatantly obvious. Oubre and Porter should be starting together. We obliterate teams with Oubre and Porter on the court together.

Hell, I’d start Green at center. Mahinmi and Green at center throughout a game.

[Ruzious]

If I were to choose to start Oubre, it'd be because I think he knows his offensive role with the starting group is limited. When he's with the backups, he thinks he needs to be a primary scorer, and that leads to problems - as he tries to do more than he is currently capable of. Part of what makes Otto so valuable is that he can play with any type of forward. As he's gotten bigger, and the NBA's gotten smaller, PF is probably is his better position.

[nate33]

Porter

Porter is starting anyway.

You mean Oubre. So our choice is Green, Morris or Oubre. I'd lean toward Jeff Green on that, based on his performance last year and so far this preseason. If PIF is right that we are more likely to see the Jeff Green of two years ago, then I'd probably go with Oubre.

No, not at all. I mean Porter. Oubre is no power forward. The choice is Green, Morris, and Porter. There is no debating this. The numbers make it blatantly obvious. Oubre and Porter should be starting together. We obliterate teams with Oubre and Porter on the court together.

Hell, I’d start Green at center. Mahinmi and Green at center throughout a game.

It's like you like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing.

PORTER IS ALREADY STARTING IN ANY SCENARIO. The question at hand is, who do we start alongside Wall, Beal, Porter and (presumably) Howard? It's understood that if we start either Morris or Green, Porter plays SF, and if we start Oubre, Porter plays PF. Presenting it as a choice between Porter, Green and Morris is deceptive. The choice is, Oubre, Green or Morris.

[I_Like_Dirt]

No, not at all. I mean Porter. Oubre is no power forward. The choice is Green, Morris, and Porter. There is no debating this. The numbers make it blatantly obvious. Oubre and Porter should be starting together. We obliterate teams with Oubre and Porter on the court together.

Hell, I’d start Green at center. Mahinmi and Green at center throughout a game.

I think you're a bit too tied into traditional positions. I think of it more as 2 forwards. Otto is going to be one of them. Who is going to be the other. As things stand right now, I actually would support a matchup-dependant fluctuating lineup where Oubre, Morris and Green all start alongside Porter in various situations. I think he's still more than a year away, but depending on how TBJ develops, he might join that group later this year, too.

[nate33]

If I were to choose to start Oubre, it'd be because I think he knows his offensive role with the starting group is limited. When he's with the backups, he thinks he needs to be a primary scorer, and that leads to problems - as he tries to do more than he is currently capable of. Part of what makes Otto so valuable is that he can play with any type of forward. As he's gotten bigger, and the NBA's gotten smaller, PF is probably is his better position.

Yes, I think that's a big point in favor of starting Oubre. He's best when his role can be limited to a complimentary offensive player and a max effort ball hawk on D.

The big problem with starting Oubre is that we don't have him coming off the bench to spell Porter when Porter gets tired. Either he or Porter would have to come out pretty early in the 1st or 3rd to get enough rest to go back in at SF when the other guy comes out.

[NatP4]

Porter is starting anyway.

You mean Oubre. So our choice is Green, Morris or Oubre. I'd lean toward Jeff Green on that, based on his performance last year and so far this preseason. If PIF is right that we are more likely to see the Jeff Green of two years ago, then I'd probably go with Oubre.

No, not at all. I mean Porter. Oubre is no power forward. The choice is Green, Morris, and Porter. There is no debating this. The numbers make it blatantly obvious. Oubre and Porter should be starting together. We obliterate teams with Oubre and Porter on the court together.

Hell, I’d start Green at center. Mahinmi and Green at center throughout a game.

It's like you like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing.

PORTER IS ALREADY STARTING IN ANY SCENARIO. The question at hand is, who do we start alongside Wall, Beal, Porter and (presumably) Howard? It's understood that if we start either Morris or Green, Porter plays SF, and if we start Oubre, Porter plays PF. Presenting it as a choice between Porter, Green and Morris is deceptive. The choice is, Oubre, Green or Morris.

what? there is a clear difference between a player playing PF (far more responsibility in team defense and rotations as well as boxing out and rebounding) and a player playing as a wing. You want to downplay the difference between oubre morris and green, but you cannot ignore the benefit of Otto playing the 4 and setting screens and defending in the paint more on defense.

it is NOT, Oubre vs Morris or Green. it is Otto sliding up to play small ball 4 and Oubre playing 3&D wing alongside the starters. It makes a massive difference and ALL of the numbers from 3 consecutive seasons(including with Dudley) back that up.

i'm not disagreeing about Green being better than Morris in that spot, they did look awesome the other night and Morris is truly horrible.

[NatP4]

something like this:

Starters Wall-Beal-Oubre-Porter-Howard

6 minute mark: Beal out, Oubre out, Brown Jr in, Sato in Wall-Sato-Brown Jr-Porter-Howard

4 minute mark: Howard out, Mahinmi in Wall-Sato-Brown Jr-Porter-Mahinmi

2 minute mark: Porter out, Wall out, Green in, Oubre in Sato-Brown Jr-Oubre-Green-Mahinmi

10 minute mark: Oubre out, Beal in Sato-Beal-Brown Jr-Green-Mahinmi

6 minute mark: Brown Jr out, Mahinmi out, Sato out, Wall in, Porter in, Howard in Wall-Beal-Porter-Green-Howard

4 minute mark: Green out, Oubre in Wall-Beal-Oubre-Porter-Howard

minutes:
Wall: 32
Beal: 32
Otto: 32
Oubre: 28
Howard: 28
Sato: 24
Brown Jr: 24
Mahinmi: 20
Green: 20

[DCZards]

what? there is a clear difference between a player playing PF (far more responsibility in team defense and rotations as well as boxing out and rebounding) and a player playing as a wing. You want to downplay the difference between oubre morris and green, but you cannot ignore the benefit of Otto playing the 4 and setting screens and defending in the paint more on defense.

it is NOT, Oubre vs Morris or Green. it is Otto sliding up to play small ball 4 and Oubre playing 3&D wing alongside the starters. It makes a massive difference and ALL of the numbers from 3 consecutive seasons(including with Dudley) back that up.

i'm not disagreeing about Green being better than Morris in that spot, they did look awesome the other night and Morris is truly horrible.

My biggest concern with Otto playing the 4 for more than a few minutes here and there is that he's simply not big enough or strong enough to have the responsibility of boxing out, rebounding and setting screens. He's already proven to be fairly fragile...and I don't think he can (or should) take the pounding that comes with those responsibilities.

[NatP4]

what? there is a clear difference between a player playing PF (far more responsibility in team defense and rotations as well as boxing out and rebounding) and a player playing as a wing. You want to downplay the difference between oubre morris and green, but you cannot ignore the benefit of Otto playing the 4 and setting screens and defending in the paint more on defense.

it is NOT, Oubre vs Morris or Green. it is Otto sliding up to play small ball 4 and Oubre playing 3&D wing alongside the starters. It makes a massive difference and ALL of the numbers from 3 consecutive seasons(including with Dudley) back that up.

i'm not disagreeing about Green being better than Morris in that spot, they did look awesome the other night and Morris is truly horrible.

My biggest concern with Otto playing the 4 for more than a few minutes here and there is that he's simply not big enough or strong enough to have the responsibility of boxing out, rebounding and setting screens. He's already proven to be fairly fragile...and I don't think he can (or should) take the pounding that comes with those responsibilities.

Just look up all of the starting PFs in the east, zards. It’s not like it used to be.

[DCZards]

minutes:
Wall: 32
Beal: 32
Otto: 32
Oubre: 28
Howard: 28
Sato: 24
Brown Jr: 24
Mahinmi: 20
Green: 20

That’s too many minutes for Sato, Oubre and Brown; and too few for Green. I’d expect Sato to play 20-22 minutes and Oubre to play around 24 minutes, and for Brown, at least from the outset, to play no more than 6-8 minutes a game…if that. Rivers should play around 18 minutes a game.

I agree with starting Oubre, because, as others have pointed out, he plays better with the starters; when he’s not forcing it or trying to be the primary offensive option. However, even then I would limit Porter’s minutes at PF, using Morris to both spell OP at the 4 and to play some center in a small ball lineup.

[NatP4]

I can see why you like Scott Brooks then

[nate33]

I can see why you like Scott Brooks then

I think you are putting the cart way before the horse if you really think Brown should get 24 minutes a night while Morris and Rivers get 0. Rivers may not be that great, but he was the starting PG on a 42-win team last year (42 wins in the West, I might add). I just don't see how any coach would play a non-lotto-pick rookie 28 minutes while Rivers gets 0.

[DCZards]

I can see why you like Scott Brooks then

I think you are putting the cart way before the horse if you really think Brown should get 24 minutes a night while Morris and Rivers get 0. Rivers may not be that great, but he was the starting PG on a 42-win team last year (42 wins in the West, I might add). I just don't see how any coach would play a non-lotto-pick rookie 28 minutes while Rivers gets 0.

That's why Nat is making decisions on a message board and not on an NBA sideline.

[dckingsfan]

First, I agree with Nat on keeping Wall, Beal and Otto's minutes as close to 32ish as possible.

I would like to see Oubre and Sato get as close to 28ish minutes as possible.

Howard/Mahinmi is a split.

Rivers and Brown should split the backup minutes at SG (although Sato/Oubre eating into their minutes is just fine with me).

Green should play over Morris and they should play the PF role when we aren't going small (which should be the preference).

[NatP4]

I can see why you like Scott Brooks then

I think you are putting the cart way before the horse if you really think Brown should get 24 minutes a night while Morris and Rivers get 0. Rivers may not be that great, but he was the starting PG on a 42-win team last year (42 wins in the West, I might add). I just don't see how any coach would play a non-lotto-pick rookie 28 minutes while Rivers gets 0.

I’m talking about what they should do, if course Brooks isn’t going to do this LOL.

Zards suggestions are completely laughable.

[payitforward]

I can see why you like Scott Brooks then

I think you are putting the cart way before the horse if you really think Brown should get 24 minutes a night while Morris and Rivers get 0. Rivers may not be that great, but he was the starting PG on a 42-win team last year (42 wins in the West, I might add). I just don't see how any coach would play a non-lotto-pick rookie 28 minutes while Rivers gets 0.

That's why Nat is making decisions on a message board and not on an NBA sideline.

Rivers started on a team coached by his dad. He's a terrible player. He'll be a veteran minimum player next year -- if he has a job at all.

I'm not saying play Brown over him, but I'd be happy to play pin the tail on the donkey with every guard in the bottom 50% of the league & give whoever I got every single minute Rivers would get otherwise, so you never know... Brown might be just as good or better than Rivers.

And, Zards, I know you are being humorous, but I'm guessing you don't want me to list your views on Trey Burke 2 years ago, etc. etc. etc. as an indication that your suggestions should be ridiculed, right? (& I'm sure you could find some equally ridiculous ones from me!)

Once again, here I am standing up for Nat who never once stands up for me! (No... I'm sure you have, Nat, just joking)

I would describe Nat as being overly dramatic as a way of underlining his frustration w/ our personnel & rotation choices. No one can be *sure* Troy Brown should get that many minutes -- saying it is just a way to point out how crummy the alternative players are.

[NatP4]

People just aren't grasping the concept here. Austin Rivers is HORRIBLE, so why not play and develop your 19 year old 1st round pick? (who is probably better than Rivers already, and I only say probably so I don't get backlash, he is for certain)

I said the same thing about Sato and Mac over Marcus Thornton and Trey Burke and whatever other scrub we brought in.

Did we see what Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum did last year? (not sayin Brown Jr would do that), but young players can absolutely help you win.

[I_Like_Dirt]

People just aren't grasping the concept here. Austin Rivers is HORRIBLE, so why not play and develop your 19 year old 1st round pick? (who is probably better than Rivers already, and I only say probably so I don't get backlash, he is for certain)

I said the same thing about Sato and Mac over Marcus Thornton and Trey Burke and whatever other scrub we brought in.

Did we see what Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum did last year? (not sayin Brown Jr would do that), but young players can absolutely help you win.

This isn't a binary situation. Brown can still develop in practice, film sessions, training and watching from the bench. Players do this all the time. Fans are often quick to suggest that players don't develop if they don't play, but there is basically 0 evidence of this. Then fans also suggest that players don't develop properly if they're pushed to hard too fast, for which there is also 0 evidence. Either way, the blame is put on management/coaching.

As for Rivers, he isn't particularly good but he's also not horrible. The Clippers had a comparable record to the Wizards last season after closing out the season on a 2-6 run after trading Griffin and sitting Lou and Gallo alongside Teodosic and Beverley. Tobias Harris was never thought of as particularly good until he joined the Clippers, and he still isn't all that good. They were playing Wesley Johnson, Sindarius Thornwell (I like the kid but he wasn't good last season), Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, CJ Williams, Jawun Evans, Tyrone Wallace, etc. and they were still about as good as the Wizards. Yeah, yeah, the Wizards underachieved. The Clippers were a legitimately decent team last season and like it or not Rivers was a big part of that. He isn't a great player, or even an average player, but the league needs below average players, too, and Rivers is still a functional NBA player. Rivers is better than Brown right now. Hopefully Brown surpasses him shortly but either way I'm okay bringing him along slowly. I'm far more concerned with Brown's long term outlook than I am his production to start his rookie season. Rivers runs plays and knows team schemes on both ends of the floor. That isn't nothing.