2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Tanner]

I don't agree that the Jays should just sit on their thumbs until Vlad and others prove they are ready. The A's have won 95 games this year. How many people predicted that before the year? Or the Rays and M's both in the high 80s? Show me any projection system that had that. It's not there. The Jays of 2017-18 had older talent, so while projections were more based on relevant performance, there wasn't a lot of variance there. I mean, Morales is hitting like he was projected to, but chances are he wasn't going to be much better than that. Vlad? He could be a 3-4 win player next season based on what Acuna and Soto have done. That's going to add value. We don't know what Gurriel is. He might be bad, he might be decent, or he might be really good. There is a lot of variance there.

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other. If they are out of it mid season, then they have Stroman, Giles, and Sanchez as trade bait, possibly others, and rinse and repeat what happened this year (hopefully without as much bad luck). But if the jays go out and add a starter or two, and improve the horrid D and BR, then there is a chance of real improvement as early as 2019. I'm not expecting them to seriously contend, but it doesn't mean they can't try.

Recent history has shown that players in Vlad's level tend to be really good right away. I wouldn't waste even a service time manipulated season in 2019. Try to make the 25 roster as good as possible, keep the farm system in tact (and/or add on to it), and see what happens. People are dreading an Alex A 2013 type of off season and I don't think we will ever see that with this front office. We don't even need that type of off season.

[SharoneWright]

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other.

Ya, it almost invariably is. Don't get distracted by shiny bobbles. The Jays need to be very deliberate. Any sacrifices need to be for the future over the present, not the other way around. It's nearly impossible to have it both ways. BUILD, build, build. Unfortunately we started the BUILD phase 1 year too late.... So the surprise/win! phase is now 2021, especially if you want to sustain anything at all.

[Tanner]

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other.

Ya, it almost invariably is. Don't get distracted by shiny bobbles. The Jays need to be very deliberate. Any sacrifices need to be for the future over the present, not the other way around. It's nearly impossible to have it both ways. BUILD, build, build. Unfortunately we started the BUILD phase 1 year too late.... So the surprise/win! phase is now 2021, especially if you want to sustain anything at all.

Were the Yankees going for it or rebuilding in 2017 when they had Judge, Sanchez, Bird, Hicks, Severino, etc, in high profile roles to start the season? In 2016, Judge and Hicks had a combined -0.4 war. It went up to 10.1 the following year. Severino had a 5.38 ERA and pitched half his games out of the pen in 2016, and then had a 5.8 war in 193 innings the following year. Didi took a leap forward from 2016 to 2017-18 at age 27/28.

That's my point. You can do both. If your prospects pan out, at least a few of them, then you have a real shot assuming you are not purposely throwing out dumpster fire in other positions in order to truly bottom out. The Jays will need more than Vlad and Gurriel as the young pieces, but that's why 2020 was mentioned. By 2020, assuming no serious setbacks, we are looking at a roster with Vlad, Bichette, Jansen, Gurriel, Biggio, and Alford. McKinney will have five years of control left assuming he turns into something useful. Hernandez will have four. Diaz three. McGuire and Tellez are also guys who might turn into big leaguers. The rotation is a bit riskier, but that's why you sign free agents. That's where the money will have to go.

By all accounts here, the Jays have been 'going for it' since Shapiro took over. How many relevant prospects have they traded in that time? None. How many prospects have they traded for in three trade deadlines? 16. You can do both. They have done both. Maybe not as well as some would have liked, largely due to expectation from ownership, but doesn't change the fact that it's doable.

[Schad]

I don't agree that the Jays should just sit on their thumbs until Vlad and others prove they are ready. The A's have won 95 games this year. How many people predicted that before the year? Or the Rays and M's both in the high 80s? Show me any projection system that had that. It's not there. The Jays of 2017-18 had older talent, so while projections were more based on relevant performance, there wasn't a lot of variance there. I mean, Morales is hitting like he was projected to, but chances are he wasn't going to be much better than that. Vlad? He could be a 3-4 win player next season based on what Acuna and Soto have done. That's going to add value. We don't know what Gurriel is. He might be bad, he might be decent, or he might be really good. There is a lot of variance there.

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other. If they are out of it mid season, then they have Stroman, Giles, and Sanchez as trade bait, possibly others, and rinse and repeat what happened this year (hopefully without as much bad luck). But if the jays go out and add a starter or two, and improve the horrid D and BR, then there is a chance of real improvement as early as 2019. I'm not expecting them to seriously contend, but it doesn't mean they can't try.

Recent history has shown that players in Vlad's level tend to be really good right away. I wouldn't waste even a service time manipulated season in 2019. Try to make the 25 roster as good as possible, keep the farm system in tact (and/or add on to it), and see what happens. People are dreading an Alex A 2013 type of off season and I don't think we will ever see that with this front office. We don't even need that type of off season.

Good grief. We shouldn't leave Vlad in the minors for two **** weeks to get an extra season, because our really awful team has aspirations of being kinda sorta competitive? No. Just...no.

[dagger]

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other.

Come on man, they will win either 73 or 74 games this season, won 76 games last season. And they fattened up on bad teams. They had 14 wins against the Orioles, one of the worst teams in recent memory and a majority of those games came after the Orioles moved Machado, Britton and more. They were 5-13 against the Yankees and 3-15 against Boston. They will either finish 6-12 or 7-11 against Tampa Bay. They were 2-4 against Houston and 0-7 against Oakland. The only good team they had a winning record against was Cleveland at 4-3. None of those teams project to be any worse next season.

The rotation is basically Swiss cheese, full of holes. Some of the younger players like Pannone and Reid Foley would be better off starting the season at Buffalo. Estrada is likely done, Happ is gone and I'll bet on NYY making it attractive for him to come back there. Gaviglio is a poor placeholder for a future #5 starter.

The infield does have young talent, with more coming, but even Vlad isn't necessarily going to walk into the lineup as an instant MVP. And the acculturation period for some others, like Bo, who isn't likely to arrive before mid-season at best, could be longer. Meanwhile, there are compelling reasons to move on from some of the veterans like Pillar, Maile, maybe even Stroman who I feel is a good #3 starter but a pain in the rear whose prime will not line up well with the team's developmental timeline. You named a bunch of players, but to me, some of them - like McKinney - are placeholders for better prospects who are a couple of years away from the majors and won't help make up the talent deficit this team suffers from.

[Tanner]

I don't agree that the Jays should just sit on their thumbs until Vlad and others prove they are ready. The A's have won 95 games this year. How many people predicted that before the year? Or the Rays and M's both in the high 80s? Show me any projection system that had that. It's not there. The Jays of 2017-18 had older talent, so while projections were more based on relevant performance, there wasn't a lot of variance there. I mean, Morales is hitting like he was projected to, but chances are he wasn't going to be much better than that. Vlad? He could be a 3-4 win player next season based on what Acuna and Soto have done. That's going to add value. We don't know what Gurriel is. He might be bad, he might be decent, or he might be really good. There is a lot of variance there.

My point is, the Jays can try to be competitive in 2019 and still rebuild. It's not one or the other. If they are out of it mid season, then they have Stroman, Giles, and Sanchez as trade bait, possibly others, and rinse and repeat what happened this year (hopefully without as much bad luck). But if the jays go out and add a starter or two, and improve the horrid D and BR, then there is a chance of real improvement as early as 2019. I'm not expecting them to seriously contend, but it doesn't mean they can't try.

Recent history has shown that players in Vlad's level tend to be really good right away. I wouldn't waste even a service time manipulated season in 2019. Try to make the 25 roster as good as possible, keep the farm system in tact (and/or add on to it), and see what happens. People are dreading an Alex A 2013 type of off season and I don't think we will ever see that with this front office. We don't even need that type of off season.

Good grief. We shouldn't leave Vlad in the minors for two **** weeks to get an extra season, because our really awful team has aspirations of being kinda sorta competitive? No. Just...no.

What are you talking about?

[Schad]

I initially read it as you not wanting to waste the time to manipulate his service time. But no, we shouldn't be trying to go for it in 2019. We don't have a good team. Vlad won't make us have a good team. You need a lot more talent than we have even with the graduates to mount a playoff run, something that our management seems to have belatedly realized, given that even they aren't talking about trying to compete in 2019.

[Tanner]

Come on man, they will win either 73 or 74 games this season, won 76 games last season. And they fattened up on bad teams. They had 14 wins against the Orioles, one of the worst teams in recent memory and a majority of those games came after the Orioles moved Machado, Britton and more. They were 5-13 against the Yankees and 3-15 against Boston. They will either finish 6-12 or 7-11 against Tampa Bay. They were 2-4 against Houston and 0-7 against Oakland. The only good team they had a winning record against was Cleveland at 4-3. None of those teams project to be any worse next season.

The rotation is basically Swiss cheese, full of holes. Some of the younger players like Pannone and Reid Foley would be better off starting the season at Buffalo. Estrada is likely done, Happ is gone and I'll bet on NYY making it attractive for him to come back there. Gaviglio is a poor placeholder for a future #5 starter.

The infield does have young talent, with more coming, but even Vlad isn't necessarily going to walk into the lineup as an instant MVP. And the acculturation period for some others, like Bo, who isn't likely to arrive before mid-season at best, could be longer. Meanwhile, there are compelling reasons to move on from some of the veterans like Pillar, Maile, maybe even Stroman who I feel is a good #3 starter but a pain in the rear whose prime will not line up well with the team's developmental timeline. You named a bunch of players, but to me, some of them - like McKinney - are placeholders for better prospects who are a couple of years away from the majors and won't help make up the talent deficit this team suffers from.

The Jays did not have JD, a healthy Stroman, or Osuna for practically the entire season. Remove the best position player, SP, and RP from any team and you'll see a difference. They still would not have made the playoffs even if those guys were healthy, but show me a thread from before the season where anyone had the A's winning nearly 100 games or the Rays and M's winning 90 games (or close to it). Show me a thread where anyone here were even hinting at those three teams being good. It doesn't exist. The Angels and Twins got more shine for being a threat to the Jays WC2 chances. Random variance and young players improving is a thing that happens every now and then.

Speaking of the Rays and A's, when exactly did they start their long rebuilds? The A's were bad (largely because of the bad JD trade) but they never fully tanked and are right back in the playoffs within three seasons. They just made trades that they felt improved the club and gradually got better. Same with the Rays. Trading a vet here and there at a trade deadline or off season isn't a sign of rebuilding, at least not the type most of you guys want. Some times you see where you are in July and then pack it in. Or you have an internal replacement ready and trade a vet because of that (like trading Martin in the winter to give Jansen a full time spot).

I'm not sure why anyone would be against trying to improve the big league team, especially if it doesn't involve removing anything from the minor league system (trading more Greene's, Olivares', and Woodman's is not going to hurt the farm). Maybe it leads to another 75-79 win season, but now the team is starting to incorporate more young players into the lineup. Making improvements in the rotation and other areas while waiting out the young players can easily push the timeline ahead with some luck/development.

[Tanner]

I initially read it as you not wanting to waste the time to manipulate his service time. But no, we shouldn't be trying to go for it in 2019. We don't have a good team. Vlad won't make us have a good team. You need a lot more talent than we have even with the graduates to mount a playoff run, something that our management seems to have belatedly realized, given that even they aren't talking about trying to compete in 2019.

No, I meant even if they manipulate his service time he'll still be up long enough to play the majority of the season (120-130 games). I wouldn't even waste those games.

[Schad]

The problem comes when we waste the future in order to try -- and almost definitely fail -- to avoid wasting 2019. Keeping this exceptionally mediocre band together. There's no reason to expect the top four teams in the AL to fail next year, which means we're in the same boat: hoping that everyone else sucks. Something that instead ended with seven teams posting 87+ wins this year, with a threshold of 97+ to make the coin flip game.

[Tanner]

The problem comes when we waste the future in order to try -- and almost definitely fail -- to avoid wasting 2019. Keeping this exceptionally mediocre band together. There's no reason to expect the top four teams in the AL to fail next year, which means we're in the same boat: hoping that everyone else sucks. Something that instead ended with seven teams posting 87+ wins this year, with a threshold of 97+ to make the coin flip game.

I think the difference in 2019 is that the expectation from ownership to contend is not there, so we don't have to keep the popular players to placate Rogers. So trade Pillar, trade Martin, and so on. The band does not have to be kept together. You can trade those guys and come out ahead because there are internal options available that can maintain or better the value going out. Grichuk can slide over to CF, Jansen takes over at CA. If they dump/trade Tulo, then Gurriel/Diaz is there for 2019 and Bo in 2020. That option did not exist last year with players like JD, where if you dealt him you'd be looking at a Solarte type in that spot. Now younger talent is actually presenting itself, which changes everything.

I'm not saying this is realistic or anything, but let's say the Jays went bonkers and signed Dallas Keuchel. Say for 4yrs, just as an example (not sure what his market will be like). Will it propel them to the playoffs in 2019? Probably not. But you get good value on a really good player without losing anyone and maybe that player helps in 2020/21/22 when Vlad will presumably be at his peak with other young players right next to him.

I guess my point is I'd rather just add assets, regardless of team direction. If it makes sense, go for it because we have a generational talent coming up, another top 10 prospect in baseball right behind him, a borderline top 50 (Jansen), and others coming up around the same time. You can still rebuild while adding free agents as well. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

[Schad]

What makes you think that Dallas Keuchel is going to be good value? Most established free agents are the very opposite of good value; signing a guy for $100m (and forfeiting our 3rd rounder in the process, as he'll be QO'd) to get his ages 32-34 or 32-35 seasons is not a great business practice.

We can add assets, but we should be subtracting assets at the same time. There's zero logical reason to stick with a roster heavily comprised of 2019 and 2020 free agents out of some vague hope that we'll compete in the interim. Whether we say we're going for it is immaterial compared to the genuine difficulty of actually going for it. We've gone for it in two consecutive years and finished miles from the playoffs...that's the reason we're not in a position to go for it in 2019, and we shouldn't be doubling down.

[SharoneWright]

The problem comes when we waste the future in order to try -- and almost definitely fail -- to avoid wasting 2019. Keeping this exceptionally mediocre band together. There's no reason to expect the top four teams in the AL to fail next year, which means we're in the same boat: hoping that everyone else sucks. Something that instead ended with seven teams posting 87+ wins this year, with a threshold of 97+ to make the coin flip game.

I think the difference in 2019 is that the expectation from ownership to contend is not there, so we don't have to keep the popular players to placate Rogers. So trade Pillar, trade Martin, and so on. The band does not have to be kept together. You can trade those guys and come out ahead because there are internal options available that can maintain or better the value going out. Grichuk can slide over to CF, Jansen takes over at CA. If they dump/trade Tulo, then Gurriel/Diaz is there for 2019 and Bo in 2020. That option did not exist last year with players like JD, where if you dealt him you'd be looking at a Solarte type in that spot. Now younger talent is actually presenting itself, which changes everything.

I'm not saying this is realistic or anything, but let's say the Jays went bonkers and signed Dallas Keuchel. Say for 4yrs, just as an example (not sure what his market will be like). Will it propel them to the playoffs in 2019? Probably not. But you get good value on a really good player without losing anyone and maybe that player helps in 2020/21/22 when Vlad will presumably be at his peak with other young players right next to him.

I guess my point is I'd rather just add assets, regardless of team direction. If it makes sense, go for it because we have a generational talent coming up, another top 10 prospect in baseball right behind him, a borderline top 50 (Jansen), and others coming up around the same time. You can still rebuild while adding free agents as well. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

We need MORE skilled minor-league guys,,, you can never think we have enough. And to that end, we need to trade any 27+ year old player with any value in the league for younger prospects. It's a complete burn down. We don't even have a single 2.0WAR player among our veterans. Why keep mediocrity????? To be mediocre???? Why sign older players for huge dollars when don't have any quality veteran players who strike any fear into the Yanks or the Sox? Winning can come. But not now. You need to trade something for something. So, we need to trade anything that even has a semblance of "now" (and truly there's not much), for "future". Me need to muster our forces towards a more realistic goal of winning. And it's not the next 2 years.

[Tanner]

What makes you think that Dallas Keuchel is going to be good value? Most established free agents are the very opposite of good value; signing a guy for $100m (and forfeiting our 3rd rounder in the process, as he'll be QO'd) to get his ages 32-34 or 32-35 seasons is not a great business practice.

We can add assets, but we should be subtracting assets at the same time. There's zero logical reason to stick with a roster heavily comprised of 2019 and 2020 free agents out of some vague hope that we'll compete in the interim. Whether we say we're going for it is immaterial compared to the genuine difficulty of actually going for it. We've gone for it in two consecutive years and finished miles from the playoffs...that's the reason we're not in a position to go for it in 2019, and we shouldn't be doubling down.

I just used Keuchel as an example, but we don't know what he will command. I'm saying if he can be signed to a reasonable deal (not something crazy like 5 years or above), then the Jays can do something like that without "going for it". They won't be "wasting" Vlad's early years by signing good players. If they trade a bunch of top prospects for vets, then you would have a point, but that's not happening with this front office.

The Cubs won 71 games in 2014, signed 31 year old Jon Lester to a deal that runs through at least age 36, and have gotten a World Series and a 13.7 war in the first four years of the deal. Young teams who are heavy on young position players will need established Sp's who can eat up innings. It doesn't have to be Keuchel. It could be someone else. But adding FA arms, even if they are expensive, will have to be done eventually, especially as it is the weakness for this team even in the minors. I don't see why it can't be done in 2019 if an opportunity presents itself. Why wait until 2022 to do it and possibly miss out earlier?

We can still trade assets. I never said we couldn't. If we signed Keuchel and then were out of it in July, then trade Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles. What's stopping that? We could sign Keuchel and then trade Pillar, Martin, Smoak (if he brings value), and others. It's a fluid situation. I said in the trade deadline 2017 that we should have traded Osuna, and I still would have tried to be competitive in 2018. You have to pick your spots. Some times you wait and it hurts value in the end (JD) but that's the risk you take some times.

[Schad]

The Cubs won 71 games in 2014, signed 31 year old Jon Lester to a deal that runs through at least age 36, and have gotten a World Series and a 13.7 war in the first four years of the deal. Young teams who are heavy on young position players will need established Sp's who can eat up innings. It doesn't have to be Keuchel. It could be someone else. But adding FA arms, even if they are expensive, will have to be done eventually, especially as it is the weakness for this team even in the minors. I don't see why it can't be done in 2019 if an opportunity presents itself. Why wait until 2022 to do it and possibly miss out earlier?

The Cubs also already had a fair number of good players: Arrieta, Hendricks, Rizzo, Castro, etc gave them a base of major league talent to serve as a backbone as their youngsters filtered up. That was several years into their rebuild, and it was widely expect that they'd begin building back up at that juncture.

We're right at the beginning. Opportunity isn't presenting itself; there's zero reason to believe that this is going to be anything other than the rebuilding team everyone in baseball expects it to be, much less reason to start adding old guys on long deals.

We can still trade assets. I never said we couldn't. If we signed Keuchel and then were out of it in July, then trade Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles. What's stopping that? We could sign Keuchel and then trade Pillar, Martin, Smoak (if he brings value), and others. It's a fluid situation. I said in the trade deadline 2017 that we should have traded Osuna, and I still would have tried to be competitive in 2018. You have to pick your spots. Some times you wait and it hurts value in the end (JD) but that's the risk you take some times.

But it was a bad risk we took. Taking that bad risk cost us a tonne of value, and is a contributing factor to our need to look further down the road. If we keep taking those risks every year (and if it can be justified in 2019, it can be justified literally any year), we're unlikely to be anything more than a hangaround team that takes faint shots at the Wild Card every so often.

[polo007]

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[Black Watch]

What makes you think that Dallas Keuchel is going to be good value? Most established free agents are the very opposite of good value; signing a guy for $100m (and forfeiting our 3rd rounder in the process, as he'll be QO'd) to get his ages 32-34 or 32-35 seasons is not a great business practice.

We can add assets, but we should be subtracting assets at the same time. There's zero logical reason to stick with a roster heavily comprised of 2019 and 2020 free agents out of some vague hope that we'll compete in the interim. Whether we say we're going for it is immaterial compared to the genuine difficulty of actually going for it. We've gone for it in two consecutive years and finished miles from the playoffs...that's the reason we're not in a position to go for it in 2019, and we shouldn't be doubling down.

I just used Keuchel as an example, but we don't know what he will command. I'm saying if he can be signed to a reasonable deal (not something crazy like 5 years or above), then the Jays can do something like that without "going for it". They won't be "wasting" Vlad's early years by signing good players. If they trade a bunch of top prospects for vets, then you would have a point, but that's not happening with this front office.

The Cubs won 71 games in 2014, signed 31 year old Jon Lester to a deal that runs through at least age 36, and have gotten a World Series and a 13.7 war in the first four years of the deal. Young teams who are heavy on young position players will need established Sp's who can eat up innings. It doesn't have to be Keuchel. It could be someone else. But adding FA arms, even if they are expensive, will have to be done eventually, especially as it is the weakness for this team even in the minors. I don't see why it can't be done in 2019 if an opportunity presents itself. Why wait until 2022 to do it and possibly miss out earlier?

We can still trade assets. I never said we couldn't. If we signed Keuchel and then were out of it in July, then trade Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles. What's stopping that? We could sign Keuchel and then trade Pillar, Martin, Smoak (if he brings value), and others. It's a fluid situation. I said in the trade deadline 2017 that we should have traded Osuna, and I still would have tried to be competitive in 2018. You have to pick your spots. Some times you wait and it hurts value in the end (JD) but that's the risk you take some times.

The Jays will most likely use more of The Opener next year, a la the Rays. Paying for SP on the free agent market is soon to be retrograde, anyway, Bullpening is the future.

[BigLeagueChew]

Vlad Guerrero Jr Zips projections by Dan Szymborski



https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/elegy-for-18-toronto-blue-jays/

[North_of_Border]

Vlad Guerrero Jr Zips projections by Dan Szymborski



https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/elegy-for-18-toronto-blue-jays/

Batting average is okay. But I think he will hit many more home runs and the RBI will be much higher.

I think if Vlad as a generational talent. But these stats make him look like just an all-star.



Sent from my HTC Desire 728 dual sim using RealGM mobile app

[Schad]

A 150 OPS+ would make him a top 5-8 hitter. 29 fWAR through age 26 would put him on a borderline HOF track. While Vlad will hit HRs, his value isn't wholly HR-dependent, and the RBIs in particular don't matter at all.