Butler has requested a trade, the saga continues

[Klomp]

Heat aren't going to package BOTH Winslow and Richardson, that's for sure.

Winslow is no big deal at all. With his extension he is now another negative contract on Miami. I prefer Richardson/Olynyk FRP for Butler or Richardson/Whiteside for Butler/Dieng no pick needed. Git r dun go Wolves.

He's not a negative contract.

[theGreatRC]

The only negative contracts on the Heat are Waiters and Tyler Johnson

Winslow is underrated imo.

I think a deal gets done before the opener

[minimus]

Winslow is underrated imo

With this contract he is not underrated anymore.

[shrink]

Thing I don't get is, why trade away Lavine, Dunn and Markkanen for Butler if they weren't going to extend Butler?

I can understand if the Wolves didn't plan to re-sign Lavine and Dunn. But they gave away a top 10 pick which became Markkanen?

Taylor offered Butler the highest extension he could under the CBA, and Butler turned it down. That was expected, because the max extension is significantly less than the max he could get at the end of the season.

Butler wants his contract renegotiated now, but it would require MIN going from $25 mil over the cap, to $30 mil under. Otherwise, he has to wait until the end of the season to get his max.

And finally, you’re right, Taylor wouldn’t have approved a trade for Butler with LaVine, Dunn and the #7 if he was unwilling to give him the max in two years.

[Domejandro]

Winslow is underrated imo

With this contract he is not underrated anymore.

Last year is a team option, it is a great contract.

[shrink]

Shrink, if you're around, I'd love to hear your assessment of the Justise Winslow extension, and the probability of the deal being offering to MN being some combination of Richardson/Winslow and a pick.

Personally, I'd be good with adding two two-way wings on cap-friendly deals for Butler.

Pretty good posts in front of me, so let me add just a couple things.

First, the Winslow contract is simply okay. $13 mil a year is more than the MLE, which is where we try to price borderline starters. Winslow is a top 10% defender in the nba, but three years in and he is still a bottom 10% offensive player. One-way players generally don’t get more than the MLE, especially ones that are bad on the offensive (ticket-selling) end. However, I don’t think this is a negative deal. Winslow certainly has the chance to improve, and even though we expected more, injuries and inconsisties have nagged him for three years. I also think that making the final season a team option compensates for the higher annual salary that he probably deserves at this point. Finally, don’t forget you still get this year’s service on rookie scale. He received a market value contract, which most players do with an average agent, so his trade value is neutral.

Second, as others have said, the poison pill provision generally makes a player less likely to be traded, which was it’s intent. The variance in in-going and out-going money usually makes the process difficult for salary matching. However, a fair MIN-MIA deal,already has problems with salary matching. MIA’s positive assets don’t make enough money to match, and much of their spending since the Tyler Johnson contract has led to negative contracts. The Heat were “use it or lose it” with their money, so they used it, but made bad deals,

The interesting things now is that it might lead to a new pathway. Right now, MIA wants to include a bad deal to salary match, but it drains the deal of value. They could make up that value if they took Dieng, but they only have bad money to match him - two bad deals to one. The way to make the money work in a poison pill situation is to expand the deal, so that the PP deal is a smaller percentage of the overall trade. You may see something like Domejandro suggested - Richardson, Winslow (maybe that late pick), plus MIA contract, for Butler, plus Dieng.

I disagree with Heat fans that they wouldn’t give up Richardson and Winslow, especially since they are getting Butler back to play SF. They may like the player, but Winslow on the extension is neutral value. If they still want to dump Waiters, swapping him for a Dieng makes the money work. They have plenty of nba-worthy swingmen to play with Butler, like Wade, Wayne Ellington, Waiters got paid, McGruder is better than people know, and they like Derrick Jones Jr. if there is one team that should consolidate wings, it’s MIA.

[SmokeyPaw]

Winslow is underrated imo

With this contract he is not underrated anymore.

Last year is a team option, it is a great contract.

I agree. Gambling on his upside on this contract is a reasonable bet. MKG is another plus defender with offensive deficiencies who makes 15 million. Winslow is more likely to shoot.

[Klomp]

$13 mil a year is more than the MLE, which is where we spot fourth or often fifth starters.

I don't know that I agree with that statement. If that were the case, the teams who would be the best wouldn't have payrolls near what they are. Golden State has 5 players making $16 million this season (and that doesn't even include DeMarcus Cousins). The teams that are the best shouldn't have to overpay by that much if they are already up there with the best.

[Jedzz]

$13 mil a year is more than the MLE, which is where we spot fourth or often fifth starters.

I don't know that I agree with that statement. If that were the case, the teams who would be the best wouldn't have payrolls near what they are. Golden State has 5 players making $16 million this season (and that doesn't even include DeMarcus Cousins). The teams that are the best shouldn't have to overpay by that much if they are already up there with the best.

I don't think any teams should overpay anyone just because they aren't a good team. Just wanted to comment about that. I know many teams do. I just think it's foolhardy. It's not going to help their teams improve beyond what lowly status they've been at because they wont' be able to build correctly to compete. Better off just moving on if you must and keep working to time it right with a couple good young players to occur at once that makes others want to join your future.

With the team option and the short duration I thought Winslow's deal is fine if paying incomplete players is fine.

[shrink]

$13 mil a year is more than the MLE, which is where we spot fourth or often fifth starters.

I don't know that I agree with that statement. If that were the case, the teams who would be the best wouldn't have payrolls near what they are. Golden State has 5 players making $16 million this season (and that doesn't even include DeMarcus Cousins). The teams that are the best shouldn't have to overpay by that much if they are already up there with the best.

I don't think any teams should overpay anyone just because they aren't a good team. Just wanted to comment about that. I know many teams do. I just think it's foolhardy. It's not going to help their teams improve beyond what lowly status they've been at because they wont' be able to build correctly to compete. Better off just moving on if you must and keep working to time it right with a couple good young players to occur at once that makes others want to join your future.

With the team option and the short duration I thought Winslow's deal is fine if paying incomplete players is fine. At least it's not a strict 4 year deal.

If I haven’t made this point before, player options and team options are very important. If Justise Winslow is still not worth a $13 mil a year salary because his offense hasn’t developed, or, as an extreme example, gotten a career ending injury, MIA benefits greatly because they can remove that payroll, and hopefully reinvest in a player worth his contract. On the other hand, if Winslow emerges as a solid two-way player that can hit three pointers off the dribble, he has the chance to be a #2 or more likely, a #3 starter, and could be worth over the $13, and then MIA has a good contract.

Winslow’s underpaid this year, likely overpaid in year 2 and maybe 3, and he is a plus on the 4th year with that team option, when MIA will only keep him if he is worth $13 mil or more. It will depend on Winslow’s health and development, but the deal looks fair to me, and that’s neutral value.

[KGdaBom]

Heat aren't going to package BOTH Winslow and Richardson, that's for sure.

Winslow is no big deal at all. With his extension he is now another negative contract on Miami. I prefer Richardson/Olynyk FRP for Butler or Richardson/Whiteside for Butler/Dieng no pick needed. Git r dun go Wolves.

He's not a negative contract.

I disagree.

[shrink]

The only negative contracts on the Heat are Waiters and Tyler Johnson

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1750985

General consensus of neutral posters on the Trade Board are that James Johnson and Whiteside are negative, and Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters are very negative.

[twix2500]

At worse Winslow is a younger PJ Tucker

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[KGdaBom]

At worse Winslow is a younger PJ Tucker

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If you're going by these stats Winslow is mildly favorable to Tucker. However, there is more than just stats. Tucker has this great rep of being a player who does great things that don't show up in the stat sheet. I don't know.

[Jedzz]

If I haven’t made this point before, player options and team options are very important. If Justise Winslow is still not worth a $13 mil a year salary because his offense hasn’t developed, or, as an extreme example, gotten a career ending injury, MIA benefits greatly because they can remove that payroll, and hopefully reinvest in a player worth his contract. On the other hand, if Winslow emerges as a solid two-way player that can hit three pointers off the dribble, he has the chance to be a #2 or more likely, a #3 starter, and could be worth over the $13, and then MIA has a good contract.

Winslow’s underpaid this year, likely overpaid in year 2 and maybe 3, and he is a plus on the 4th year with that team option, when MIA will only keep him if he is worth $13 mil or more. It will depend on Winslow’s health and development, but the deal looks fair to me, and that’s neutral value.

I would agree and bringing up career type injuries is a great addition. The shorter contracts and options are the best tools teams and players have for bad situations right now, and for giving an interesting player more time to develop with less risk. I like guaranteed deals for players but wish teams had better cap relief options for players toasted by injuries. Like completely vacating their holds if need be. The stretch I suppose. But with size of some deals even that is harsh. Handing out bad deals should be a teams responsibility. But I don't think injuries should be allowed to wreck caps for years.

[twix2500]

At worse Winslow is a younger PJ Tucker

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If you're going by these stats Winslow is mildly favorable to Tucker. However, there is more than just stats. Tucker has this great rep of being a player who does great things that don't show up in the stat sheet. I don't know.

And that is Winslow

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[theGreatRC]

I don't think Jimmy is still gonna be here when the season starts.

[Jedzz]

I don't think Jimmy is still gonna be here when the season starts.

Does he play or start if he is still here in a few days?

That's the hardest part about all this when talking about a player that changes your team this much. They have to be prepared to be two different teams. It's got to mean early seasons losses while this all gets decided. Then again we are all kind of used to losing in October/November.

[wco81]

Thing I don't get is, why trade away Lavine, Dunn and Markkanen for Butler if they weren't going to extend Butler?

I can understand if the Wolves didn't plan to re-sign Lavine and Dunn. But they gave away a top 10 pick which became Markkanen?

Taylor offered Butler the highest extension he could under the CBA, and Butler turned it down. That was expected, because the max extension is significantly less than the max he could get at the end of the season.

Butler wants his contract renegotiated now, but it would require MIN going from $25 mil over the cap, to $30 mil under. Otherwise, he has to wait until the end of the season to get his max.

And finally, you’re right, Taylor wouldn’t have approved a trade for Butler with LaVine, Dunn and the #7 if he was unwilling to give him the max in two years.

Did attendance increase last year over the previous year?

Higher local TV ratings or greater jersey sales?

Maybe any increase in revenues wasn’t enough to justify having a third $30 million plus player, especially with luxury taxes.

[theGreatRC]

I don't think Jimmy is still gonna be here when the season starts.

Does he play or start if he is still here in a few days?

That's the hardest part about all this when talking about a player that changes your team this much. They have to be prepared to be two different teams. It's got to mean early seasons losses while this all gets decided. Then again we are all kind of used to losing in October/November.

I don't know if he's forced to play if he's medically cleared because I remember Derrick Rose was cleared but didn't play during that one year with the Bulls due to "muscle memory" or something like that. I do know that you can get fined if you're cleared physically and there's nothing wrong with you mentally

Jimmy could just be like "Still rehabbing this hand" for the first few weeks of the season until Thibs realizes we need someone to fill the void and we make a deal with Miami or someone else