Official Speculation Thread ‘17-18’: XVIII: The Long Wait Continues

[Nemesis21]

That depends entirely on whether or not you consider more wins, a playoff-less post season, and a lower draft pick, a success compared to last season. Clifford and a healthy roster is good, but still obviously not good enough. So we are looking at mediocre?

This year? I think they're going to be mediocre, yes. I am predicting somewhere around 32-34 wins. Probably the 9th or 10th seed in the East.

But Vucevic, Ross, Simmons, Grant, Martin, Iwundu and Birch are all either unrestricted free agents or can become unrestricted free agents this upcoming offseason if the Magic are so inclined. That's four for sure rotation players and possibly 5 if Iwundu is the 10th man.

How the team looks right now roster wise and how it will look next year IMO are going to be significantly different.

As much as we wanted sweeping changes this past summer, it wasn't overly realistic. A lot of these guys had little to no value in trades (Vuc, Ross, Evan) or weren't people any of us would have wanted to give up (Gordon, Isaac, 6th pick, future picks).

People have been saying that for like 8 years now.

[pepe1991]

That depends entirely on whether or not you consider more wins, a playoff-less post season, and a lower draft pick, a success compared to last season. Clifford and a healthy roster is good, but still obviously not good enough. So we are looking at mediocre?

This year? I think they're going to be mediocre, yes. I am predicting somewhere around 32-34 wins. Probably the 9th or 10th seed in the East.

But Vucevic, Ross, Simmons, Grant, Martin, Iwundu and Birch are all either unrestricted free agents or can become unrestricted free agents this upcoming offseason if the Magic are so inclined. That's four for sure rotation players and possibly 5 if Iwundu is the 10th man.

How the team looks right now roster wise and how it will look next year IMO are going to be significantly different.

As much as we wanted sweeping changes this past summer, it wasn't overly realistic. A lot of these guys had little to no value in trades (Vuc, Ross, Evan) or weren't people any of us would have wanted to give up (Gordon, Isaac, 6th pick, future picks).

People have been saying that for like 8 years now.

Magic starting lineups

2014-15
Payton
Oladipo
Harris/ Evan
Gordon
Vučević


2015-16
Payton
Oladipo/Evan
Harris
Gordon
Vučević


2016-17
Payton
Evan
Gordon
Ibaka
Vučević

2017-18
Payton/DJ
Evan
Ross
Gordon
Vučević


5th year with same 3 startes. On team that never passed 35 wins.
That actually by record gets worst in last 2

[Knightro]

Magic starting lineups

2014-15
Payton
Oladipo
Harris/ Evan
Gordon
Vučević


2015-16
Payton
Oladipo/Evan
Harris
Gordon
Vučević


2016-17
Payton
Evan
Gordon
Ibaka
Vučević

2017-18
Payton/DJ
Evan
Ross
Gordon
Vučević


5th year with same 3 startes. On team that never passed 35 wins.
That actually by record gets worst in last 2

I shouldn't have to point out that three of the four years you mentioned were under a different GM, but fine. Here we go...

Hennigan thought Payton was a starting caliber PG and handed him the reigns no questions asked at that position for 3 years. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan thought Fournier was better than Oladipo. He traded Vic AND a lotto pick in order to "free up" the SG spot (while also bringing in a guy who absolutely didn't want to be here in Ibaka). Rob ended up giving Evan an 85M contract which ultimately made him untradeable for anything of value. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan gave Vucevic 52M when the league was trending away from big men who don't defend well and don't shoot threes well, thus making him untradeable for anything of value. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan cap dumped Tobias Harris. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan used his cap space from dumping Harris on Biyombo and Augustin. To make matters worse, he gave them both FOUR year contracts, making them both untradeable for anything of value. He was wrong on both of those decisions.

So Weltman and Hammond take over this roster...

G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier
F: Ross, Hezonja
F: Gordon
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Hennigan left the cupboard bare when he was fired. Only one player (Gordon) anyone would be interested in a trade and no cap space to acquire anyone of value. They added Simmons and Mack on cheap contracts to soak up some minutes and lotto pick Isaac to the mix. Once the season started, they had all of 2 players with any real value in a trade. Gordon, who they eventually kept on a fair declining contract, and Isaac.

So what could they have done differently? Should Weltman and Hammond have traded Fournier, Vucevic and Ross for equally bad or worse contracts? Does flipping Vucevic for an equally bad expiring contract actually do anything? It's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

People talk about how upset they were that Magic didn't tank last year, but they really did. They only won 25 games. They ended the year losing 14 of their final 19 games. They got a little unlucky with the sheer number of teams also tanking, but at the end of the day they still had the 5th worst record.

Is it Weltman and Hammond's fault that Jamel Artis, Rodney Purvis, Khem Birch and Shelvin Mack ended up beating Dallas and Washington in the final week of the season? They tried to lose those games, but somebody has to win.

This past offseason... again no cap space and no trade assets because of the contracts Rob handed out. The only kind of trades you can make in that scenario are the trade they did make. Horrible contract (Biyombo) for horrible contract (Mozgov).

33M coming off the books this offseason. Another 24M coming off the books next offseason. Over 40M if Fournier opts out of the final year of his contract.

[Nemesis21]

Magic starting lineups

2014-15
Payton
Oladipo
Harris/ Evan
Gordon
Vučević


2015-16
Payton
Oladipo/Evan
Harris
Gordon
Vučević


2016-17
Payton
Evan
Gordon
Ibaka
Vučević

2017-18
Payton/DJ
Evan
Ross
Gordon
Vučević


5th year with same 3 startes. On team that never passed 35 wins.
That actually by record gets worst in last 2

I shouldn't have to point out that three of the four years you mentioned were under a different GM, but fine. Here we go...

Hennigan thought Payton was a starting caliber PG and handed him the reigns no questions asked at that position for 3 years. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan thought Fournier was better than Oladipo. He traded Vic AND a lotto pick in order to "free up" the SG spot (while also bringing in a guy who absolutely didn't want to be here in Ibaka). Rob ended up giving Evan an 85M contract which ultimately made him untradeable for anything of value. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan gave Vucevic 52M when the league was trending away from big men who don't defend well and don't shoot threes well, thus making him untradeable for anything of value. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan cap dumped Tobias Harris. That was a wrong decision.

Hennigan used his cap space from dumping Harris on Biyombo and Augustin. To make matters worse, he gave them both FOUR year contracts, making them both untradeable for anything of value. He was wrong on both of those decisions.

So Weltman and Hammond take over this roster...

G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier
F: Ross, Hezonja
F: Gordon
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Hennigan left the cupboard bare when he was fired. Only one player (Gordon) anyone would be interested in a trade and no cap space to acquire anyone of value. They added Simmons and Mack on cheap contracts to soak up some minutes and lotto pick Isaac to the mix. Once the season started, they had all of 2 players with any real value in a trade. Gordon, who they eventually kept on a fair declining contract, and Isaac.

So what could they have done differently? Should Weltman and Hammond have traded Fournier, Vucevic and Ross for equally bad or worse contracts? Does flipping Vucevic for an equally bad expiring contract actually do anything? It's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

People talk about how upset they were that Magic didn't tank last year, but they really did. They only won 25 games. They ended the year losing 14 of their final 19 games. They got a little unlucky with the sheer number of teams also tanking, but at the end of the day they still had the 5th worst record.

Is it Weltman and Hammond's fault that Jamel Artis, Rodney Purvis, Khem Birch and Shelvin Mack ended up beating Dallas and Washington in the final week of the season? They tried to lose those games, but somebody has to win.

This past offseason... again no cap space and no trade assets because of the contracts Rob handed out. The only kind of trades you can make in that scenario are the trade they did make. Horrible contract (Biyombo) for horrible contract (Mozgov).

33M coming off the books this offseason. Another 24M coming off the books next offseason. Over 40M if Fournier opts out of the final year of his contract.

This is nothing but a Hennigan bash post. He's gone, nearly two years now. Get over it.


The facts are, that we have had the same crap product on the court through 5 coaches and 2 GMs. Blame one, you should blame them all.


This team won't be winning 32+ games and it's going to be awesome taking your $10. I even asked if you wanted to up the bet, but you never answered.

[Optimus_Steel]

I go into this season seeing not a single new thing that any player brought to their game over the summer. It's disappointing. It doesn't look like anyone did anything new. If anything, it looks like they all regressed. I don't lump JI or Bamba in there because they don't really have a baseline from which to compare, but everyone else, meh.

The worst part I think is that we are bringing back the main 7-8 guys from what feels like a decade of mediocrity. I'm not expecting much from Bamba either way until next year. AG appears to be just as bad, if not worse, Fournier is the exact same if not worse, Vuc, DJ, Simmons, etc. When I think about it, my only hope for having a good season lies on JI's shoulders. He's the only unknown in the group that I feel could change things at this time in the rebuild.

WeltHam didn't make major changes in the summer because they prefer to lose organically. Stealth tank move.

[Knightro]

This is nothing but a Hennigan bash post. He's gone, nearly two years now. Get over it.

The facts are, that we have had the same crap product on the court through 5 coaches and 2 GMs. Blame one, you should blame them all.

This team won't be winning 32+ games and it's going to be awesome taking your $10. I even asked if you wanted to up the bet, but you never answered.

Unsurprisingly, you're missing the point. Like you typically do.

I am not a Rob Hennigan hater. I thought Hennigan actually did a nice rebuilding job in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and that was with basically ZERO lottery luck.

The team that begin the 2015 season would have ended up being a fun little playoff team if Rob had just left it alone and let it grow. Unfortunately the guy just lost his friggin mind about halfway through 2015. It cannot be overstated how bad Hennigan bungled things in 2015 and 2016. Every single move he made was basically a disaster from the Harris salary dump until he was fired.

Weltman and Hammond inherited a terrible situation. Completely capped out for two full years. One decent building block in Gordon and six rotation pieces with virtually no trade value.

As far as our bet goes, we can add another 0 to the end of that $10 and make it $100 if you want. I'm totally confident they'll win 32.

But better yet... how about this...

I'll put up $100. You can continue to put up $10, but when I win you have to leave the board for a year.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Took a LONG break and come back to see we're still arguing about Henny/Vuc/Fourn/BuddyBall.. damn its going to be a long year.

[YosemiteSam]

This is nothing but a Hennigan bash post. He's gone, nearly two years now. Get over it.

The facts are, that we have had the same crap product on the court through 5 coaches and 2 GMs. Blame one, you should blame them all.

This team won't be winning 32+ games and it's going to be awesome taking your $10. I even asked if you wanted to up the bet, but you never answered.

Unsurprisingly, you're missing the point. Like you typically do.

I am not a Rob Hennigan hater. I thought Hennigan actually did a nice rebuilding job in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and that was with basically ZERO lottery luck.

The team that begin the 2015 season would have ended up being a fun little playoff team if Rob had just left it alone and let it grow. Unfortunately the guy just lost his friggin mind about halfway through 2015. It cannot be overstated how bad Hennigan bungled things in 2015 and 2016. Every single move he made was basically a disaster from the Harris salary dump until he was fired.

Weltman and Hammond inherited a terrible situation. Completely capped out for two full years. One decent building block in Gordon and six rotation pieces with virtually no trade value.

As far as our bet goes, we can add another 0 to the end of that $10 and make it $100 if you want. I'm totally confident they'll win 32.

But better yet... how about this...

I'll put up $100. You can continue to put up $10, but when I win you have to leave the board for a year.

You shouldn't be so mean to Rob Hennigan's burner account

[VFX]

Magic starting lineups

2014-15
Payton
Oladipo
Harris/ Evan
Gordon
Vučević


2015-16
Payton
Oladipo/Evan
Harris
Gordon
Vučević


2016-17
Payton
Evan
Gordon
Ibaka
Vučević

2017-18
Payton/DJ
Evan
Ross
Gordon
Vučević


5th year with same 3 startes. On team that never passed 35 wins.
That actually by record gets worst in last 2

Is it Weltman and Hammond's fault that Jamel Artis, Rodney Purvis, Khem Birch and Shelvin Mack ended up beating Dallas and Washington in the final week of the season? They tried to lose those games, but somebody has to win.

This past offseason... again no cap space and no trade assets because of the contracts Rob handed out. The only kind of trades you can make in that scenario are the trade they did make. Horrible contract (Biyombo) for horrible contract (Mozgov).

33M coming off the books this offseason. Another 24M coming off the books next offseason. Over 40M if Fournier opts out of the final year of his contract.

Yes. We all know Rob f***** up the roster.

However, you are saying WeHam can’t make any trades and that they are handcuffed to these players until they expire. Yeah that isn’t “doing their job”, kind of like not making any moves in the draft via trade and letting the rest of the leagues actions dictate Orlando’s fate.

So the big goal here is capspace? Capspace doesn’t matter at all if the only alternative to the money is either overpaying players in free agency (that definitely won’t be superstars) or resigning players that apparently have zero value on the roster currently.

[Nemesis21]

This is nothing but a Hennigan bash post. He's gone, nearly two years now. Get over it.

The facts are, that we have had the same crap product on the court through 5 coaches and 2 GMs. Blame one, you should blame them all.

This team won't be winning 32+ games and it's going to be awesome taking your $10. I even asked if you wanted to up the bet, but you never answered.

Unsurprisingly, you're missing the point. Like you typically do.

I am not a Rob Hennigan hater. I thought Hennigan actually did a nice rebuilding job in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and that was with basically ZERO lottery luck.

The team that begin the 2015 season would have ended up being a fun little playoff team if Rob had just left it alone and let it grow. Unfortunately the guy just lost his friggin mind about halfway through 2015. It cannot be overstated how bad Hennigan bungled things in 2015 and 2016. Every single move he made was basically a disaster from the Harris salary dump until he was fired.

Weltman and Hammond inherited a terrible situation. Completely capped out for two full years. One decent building block in Gordon and six rotation pieces with virtually no trade value.

As far as our bet goes, we can add another 0 to the end of that $10 and make it $100 if you want. I'm totally confident they'll win 32.

But better yet... how about this...

I'll put up $100. You can continue to put up $10, but when I win you have to leave the board for a year.

You think that that is hard for me or something?? I've already done it, but you probably weren't around then. I took the first year post Dwight off.

And when I win, you have to leave the board FOREVER.


Since you suddenly think you have balls.

[rcklsscognition]

Took a LONG break and come back to see we're still arguing about Henny/Vuc/Fourn/BuddyBall.. damn its going to be a long year.

2030.

[pepe1991]

Knightro i didn't need trip to history. Been there through all that crap.
Also i don't agree Vučević was ever untradable, they simply never wanted to trade him.
Ditto for Evan.

Blaming all on Hennigan is such an excuse for having new front office that 2 offseasons sits on their hands and drafts same type of players ( freaky athletes that play offense like toddlers ).
They didn't even use MLE they had this year.
Their current salary of $112M makes them 21# most expensive team (read 9th cheapest).

Their "masterplan" to open cap space for next year is laughable for simple reason -whole freaking league will have money in that year ,who in a blue hell belives they will be able to get anybody good?

Look at teams with money next year:
Lakers
Pacers
Dallas
Nets
Clippers
Knicks
Philly
Bulls
Suns

who da hell they will get with 2 teams from NY, two teams with LA ,Chicago and Philly who are huge markets as well.

And look at pool of FAa:
Durant -below 0% to get him
Irving -gone
Butler - 1% chance for him
Klay Thompson -said he will resign
Cousins- no interest
Kemba Walker ( 29 years old )
Kriss Middleton (Bucks moved Parker to resign him)
Bledsoe ?
Eric Gordon

so who you want to dump max contract at? Walker or Eric Gordon? probably non of them will even look at you on that market when they can go to play in NY for same money and win same- nothing.

This blind support of Weltman and Hammond who did literally nothing since they got there is crazy to me.
What's their trackrecord for have such blind support? One drafted Giannis but never passed first round in his life as GM, other was "master" of building Raptors, team that in their history never reached third round, that capped out for Ibaka. You know, team that salary for 2018 had Ibaka, Lowry,Derozan and Jonas was $92M.

[VFX]

Took a LONG break and come back to see we're still arguing about Henny/Vuc/Fourn/BuddyBall.. damn its going to be a long year.

2030.

When WeHams master plan pays off.

[PennytoShaq]

Who says the master plan is to open cap space for next year? The plan is to have cap flexibility moving forward. Some of you guys think every decision has to be tied to getting a star player. Some things are just about building and retaining a legit core. Our cap situation was awful. It’s not easy to fix things like that over night. It just does not happen.

As for playing offense like “toddlers”. We shall see. Frazier was showing some non-toddler offensive skills and JI has shown he may have more skills than some people want to admit.

The season here will be silence from some when the Weltman guys have a good game, and then piling on when they don’t. That’s my easy prediction of how this place will go all season.

Personally, I look forward to watching Bamba and JI develop over the course of the season. I think we have two great young players and are a legit wing away from being a scary young team.

Also, lets try and not misuse the word literally. There are enough 14 year old girls doing this on a daily basis as it is.

[Knightro]

Yes. We all know Rob f***** up the roster.

However, you are saying WeHam can’t make any trades and that they are handcuffed to these players until they expire. Yeah that isn’t “doing their job”, kind of like not making any moves in the draft via trade and letting the rest of the leagues actions dictate Orlando’s fate.

So the big goal here is capspace? Capspace doesn’t matter at all if the only alternative to the money is either overpaying players in free agency (that definitely won’t be superstars) or resigning players that apparently have zero value on the roster currently.

I didn't say Weltman and Hammond should sit on their hands, but they also didn't do that either.

They went into two offseasons in a row and quickly realized in both summers that no one wanted Fournier, no one wanted Vucevic, no one wanted Augustin, no one wanted Biyombo, no one wanted Ross, etc.

They had untradeable pieces.

The only deals out there were bad money for equally bad money or worse money.

Could they could have moved Fournier? Sure. But it would have been for someone like Chandler Parsons and his awful salary.

You can also do a lot more with cap space than just overpay free agents or keep your own players. If you have cap space you can take on players in trades. Often times you'll get a player who can help you AND get assets attached as teams try and shed money they can't afford anymore.

Every offseason there are productive players literally given away as teams try and get under the tax or find financial flexibility.

[Knightro]

You think that that is hard for me or something?? I've already done it, but you probably weren't around then. I took the first year post Dwight off.

And when I win, you have to leave the board FOREVER.


Since you suddenly think you have balls.

Fine, but I want the same offer from you.

The loser of the bet leaves the board forever.

I'm 100% a man of my word and will absolutely leave and never come back if I lose, but I have a feeling most of the people on here are going to be rooting for me and not you.

[pepe1991]

Frazier averaged whooping 7 points on 1-9 for 3 and 1 assist total,mostly playing againt third stringers.
I think we might have new Lebron there.

When you set bar Iwundu level low,everything is overachiving. In reality non of them is nba level player.

Whole "terrible" cap situation is blown out of proprotion,even last year Magic were in top 10 of cheapest teams.

The season here will be silence from some when the Weltman guys have a good game, and then piling on when they don’t. That’s my easy prediction of how this place will go all season.

LOL. It's really suprising that fans b*** about team that in last 6 years lost 68% of games they were playing? 335 of 492 to be more specific?
And same team, entering 7th year of rebuild is scheduled to win 30 games ?

Combined with our " of course starter Vučević" that new coach loves,who plays same position as Bamba.
Combined with second worst PG rotation in whole league.

dude last time Magic made playoffs Game of Throns tv show had pilot episode and people still thought Adam Sandler is funny guy.

Oh and Steve Jobs was alive and had Iphone 4 presentation.
Yea , i really can't understand why fans are angry....

[PennytoShaq]

Frazier averaged whooping 7 points on 1-9 for 3 and 1 assist total,mostly playing againt third stringers.
I think we might have new Lebron there.

When you set bar Iwundu level low,everything is overachiving. In reality non of them is nba level player.

Whole "terrible" cap situation is blown out of proprotion,even last year Magic were in top 10 of cheapest teams.

The season here will be silence from some when the Weltman guys have a good game, and then piling on when they don’t. That’s my easy prediction of how this place will go all season.

LOL. It's really suprising that fans b*** about team that in last 6 years lost 68% of games they were playing? 335 of 492 to be more specific?
And same team, entering 7th year of rebuild is scheduled to win 30 games ?

Combined with our " of course starter Vučević" that new coach loves,who plays same position as Bamba.
Combined with second worst PG rotation in whole league.

dude last time Magic made playoffs Game of Throns tv show had pilot episode and people still thought Adam Sandler is funny guy.

Yea , i really can't understand why fans are angry....

See again, you tie yourself to a hot take opinion of a player and then if you end up being wrong you spew negativity about the guy instead of you know, rooting for the team you are supposed to like.

Since you started your negative take on Frazier, you are now committed to it and wont relent even though he clearly had a solid preseason after a poor summer league. Instead of admitting that, you hunt for any stats you can to try and discredit a player just to salvage your own opinion. You did the same thing about Birch last summer - badmouthed the guy for months before realizing we have found a nice reserve player who injects energy into the lineup.

Of course no one ever said frazier was the next lebron. We all see him as a legit rotation guy off the bench who can add to the hustle culture that weltman is building. But since you like to put words in peoples mouths its easier to exaggerate things to try and make a point and escalate into arguments, than have a normal discussion.

[VFX]

Who says the master plan is to open cap space for next year? The plan is to have cap flexibility moving forward. Some of you guys think every decision has to be tied to getting a star player. Some things are just about building and retaining a legit core. Our cap situation was awful. It’s not easy to fix things like that over night. It just does not happen.

As for playing offense like “toddlers”. We shall see. Frazier was showing some non-toddler offensive skills and JI has shown he may have more skills than some people want to admit.

The season here will be silence from some when the Weltman guys have a good game, and then piling on when they don’t. That’s my easy prediction of how this place will go all season.

Personally, I look forward to watching Bamba and JI develop over the course of the season. I think we have two great young players and are a legit wing away from being a scary young team.

Also, lets try and not misuse the word literally. There are enough 14 year old girls doing this on a daily basis as it is.

I too look forward to seeing JI and Bamba play next to each other with a capable roster.

The criticism of WeHam isn’t “getting a star player”, it’s not choosing a direction and continuing to field the “legit core” as you call it, that has been a symptom and crutch since Hennigan was here. I refuse to believe there were zero options for “the core” and that packaging AG wasn’t on the table to get conversations started. If clearing capspace to take on bad contracts is actually the goal, 2030 here we come.

[PennytoShaq]

Who says the master plan is to open cap space for next year? The plan is to have cap flexibility moving forward. Some of you guys think every decision has to be tied to getting a star player. Some things are just about building and retaining a legit core. Our cap situation was awful. It’s not easy to fix things like that over night. It just does not happen.

As for playing offense like “toddlers”. We shall see. Frazier was showing some non-toddler offensive skills and JI has shown he may have more skills than some people want to admit.

The season here will be silence from some when the Weltman guys have a good game, and then piling on when they don’t. That’s my easy prediction of how this place will go all season.

Personally, I look forward to watching Bamba and JI develop over the course of the season. I think we have two great young players and are a legit wing away from being a scary young team.

Also, lets try and not misuse the word literally. There are enough 14 year old girls doing this on a daily basis as it is.

I too look forward to seeing JI and Bamba play next to each other with a capable roster.

The criticism of WeHam isn’t “getting a star player”, it’s not choosing a direction and continuing to field the “legit core” as you call it, that has been a symptom and crutch since Hennigan was here. I refuse to believe there were zero options for “the core” and that packaging AG wasn’t on the table to get conversations started. If clearing capspace to take on bad contracts is actually the goal, 2030 here we come.

We shopped AG last deadline.

Not sure what you are talking about with the core. My point was that we are not clearing cap just to chase a star player. We need flexibility to keep the guys we draft long term and to sign role players who will fit around those guys. Except the ones who suck, like Mario - so far looks like a good decision by the FO to let him walk.

I think the direction is clear. We draft the BPA , find steals in the UFA market and retain assets on good contracts. So far that has gotten us two complimentary players in bamba and isaac, and a bench that should keep us in games instead of getting us blown out.

What we do with the other guys is what people argue the most about. But assuming nothing will ever happen and we wont ever makes moves just seems unrealistic to me. The only thing you can really say is - lets see what happens, but that is not worth getting down on the FO about, IMO.