Moderator: JaysRule25
Schad wrote:A 150 OPS+ would make him a top 5-8 hitter. 29 fWAR through age 26 would put him on a borderline HOF track. While Vlad will hit HRs, his value isn't wholly HR-dependent, and the RBIs in particular don't matter at all.
BigLeagueChew wrote:Schad wrote:A 150 OPS+ would make him a top 5-8 hitter. 29 fWAR through age 26 would put him on a borderline HOF track. While Vlad will hit HRs, his value isn't wholly HR-dependent, and the RBIs in particular don't matter at all.
Yeah his father had one season in the 160+ OPS+ range and a bunch of 150's and everyone is aware he was very good or should be say, better than an all star.
Schad wrote:
For the hell of it: that gives him a seven-year OPS+ of 146. Assume it tails off a bit as he ages, and it ends up in the 140 range. His median projection is, like, A-Rod.
His arm fully healed and his body back in game-shape, the 22-year-old right-hander was the polar opposite of depressed Friday after his Arizona Fall League debut, his first competitive outing since May 7 with Dunedin when a second-inning comebacker fractured his ulna. The 6-6, 245-pound giant threw 3.1 shutout innings, allowing three hits and three walks with four strikeouts, for the Surprise Saguaros in a 4-1 win over the Glendale Desert Dogs, looking every bit the future ace he’s projected to be.
An overwhelming fastball that was consistently 96-97 and got up into triple-digits was complemented by a knee-buckling curveball along with a progressing changeup and slider. In the first inning, for instance, he got ahead of Connor Marabell with consecutive called-strike curveballs before the Cleveland outfield prospect swung through a 100-m.p.h. heater. The next inning, he flipped the sequence on Dodgers outfielder Cody Thomas, using a 99 m.p.h. fastball to get strike two before freezing him with a hook at 79 to end the inning.
"I felt really good with my whole mix," said Pearson. "I was able to flash all my pitches for strikes and I got into a really good groove with my curveball, so I was mainly fastball curveball. I felt pretty good behind it and I was glad to see it all coming together."
"The first time being back in competition like this there are going to be some nerves," he continued. "But once I got in the bullpen and everything started flowing I was able to settle down, get the nerves under control and I was ready to compete. It was awesome.
"The injury is in the past. I don’t dwell on it. It’s always a cool story I tell when guys ask, but other than that it’s not something I think about it. I’m just trying to go out there and compete and get guys out."
I caught three games from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is so clearly the best player here -- one of the best in the history of the Arizona Fall League -- that he seems to be on cruise control. He's so far ahead of the pitchers he's facing that he seems like he's bored and isn't showing his normal, disciplined approach at the plate, instead swinging earlier in the count and often swinging for the fences to try to create some highlight moments for the crowds (who cheer every time he's up, regardless of the ballpark).
Of course, the story the Toronto Blue Jays front office is peddling is that he's here to work on his defense at third base and that that's why they didn't call him up in September or sooner, even though his bat has been ready since May or so. They're technically correct -- his defense at third is poor, and given his sheer size, it's more likely to get worse than better -- but a few weeks in the AFL isn't going to make any difference, and there's no sign right now that he's any better at third than he was in the spring. He has a plus arm, and his hands are fine, but moving that sheer bulk quickly enough for third is difficult, and he's going to end up somewhere else -- maybe right field, most likely first base or DH. The physical comparables for him are relatively few, and the only one who stayed at third, Miguel Cabrera, wasn't this big at 19 and was a well below-average defender at third base once he did get huge.
Fellow Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson, who missed almost the entire 2018 season after he took a comebacker to his elbow in his first outing, threw well in his first appearance in Arizona, but his second was a disaster. Even in warm-ups, he clearly didn't have his release point, sending his second pitch to the backstop, and it was no better in the game: He recorded only three outs, pitching into the second inning, walking four and giving up eight runs.
Pearson was throwing his fastball at 92-98 mph, sitting at 95-96 and dialing down to try to throw strikes (it didn't work), complemented by three below-average secondary pitches, the best of which was a power slider at 85-89 mph that at least flashed some average at the top end of the range. He's a big kid at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, with good extension in his delivery, albeit with a slight cutoff in his landing, but in this outing, he couldn't consistently repeat his arm action, and his release point was all over the place, which resulted in that extreme wildness that cost him. He's healthy, so here's hoping the lack of control was just a function of rust.
Cavan Biggio is also here, but he has looked even worse than he did in the second half of 2018, to the point that he appears to barely be a major league prospect. He has no position at all. He misplayed a routine grounder at first that cost Pearson at least one out and probably two runs and had an awful read on a line drive to him in right field in a different game. He doesn't have the speed or athleticism to obviously profile anywhere. He drew a slew of walks this season, but it's because he's passive, not because he's disciplined; I saw him strike out looking four times this week, always on pitches that were clearly strikes, at least two of them fastballs from right-handers that he should have seen better than he did. I know his superficial line this year has some fans thinking he's a future regular, but I see an up-and-down guy.
vaff87 wrote:I’ll always remember Keith Law saying that Matt Wieters was better than sliced bread, and that Noah Syndergaard was a back of the rotation starter. That guy is too smug for his own good.
Keith (Delaware): Shapiro is convinced his farm system is top 5 overall. Would you concur?
Ben Badler: Yes, I think that’s a fair assessment. They’re not No. 1 or 2, but they’re definitely within that 5-ish overall neighborhood.
J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, Ben. At this point, is health the only thing standing in Alford's way? Will we see him in the early teens in the Handbook?
Ben Badler: Staying healthy is a big one for Alford, but when he was on the field this year, he also just didn’t perform very well. His timing just seemed to be off the whole year, and with that his strikeout rate went way, way up. When you’re 24 years old in Triple-A, you’ve just got to hit better than .238/.314/.339. I do you think you can look at the talent and the track record up through Double-A with Alford and see reasons why he could rebound, so he’s not far off the top 10, but as someone who’s been fairly high on Alford before, right now it’s hard to feel comfortable betting on him as an everyday regular.
Fenrir (Toronto): Did the lack of result in AFL hurt Pearson's prospect standing? He hasn't shown the ability to command his FB
Ben Badler: If I remember right, by the time I finished the list, Pearson had only one AFL outing, but I wouldn't change anything based on shaky command in the AFL from a pitcher who essentially missed the entire 2018 season. He's a tricky one to rank given his circumstances and I think you could make a reasonable case to bump him up even a couple spots higher than where he is on the list, but the good thing on Pearson out of the AFL is the stuff all seems to still be intact.
Andrew (Alberta): Are there any pitchers in the lower levels that we should be keeping an eye on come 2019? Thank you.
Ben Badler: Adam Kloffenstein didn't pitch this year after the draft, but he's someone who got top 10 consideration and could quickly jump into that group in 2019.
Norm (Texas): Ben -- Bichette has all the ear-marks of a developing hitter. But, what does his defense look like? Can he play an effective shortstop in the big leagues?
Ben Badler: Yes. He put a lot of time into working at his defense over the last couple of years and you could see the results show on the field this season. Good hands, feet work well, body control, ranges well on plays up the middle, smooth on the double play turn. I don't see any need for him to change positions.
Oren (Oshawa, ON): What happened to Logan Warmoth? What are the chances he can rebound?
Ben Badler: A very vanilla look this season. If you liked him coming into the year, it was more about the sum of the parts than any loud tools—the tools were more a bag of 5s or a tick under—but this year he just didn't hit either. He'll still be in their top 30 but it's not pointing in the right direction.
bartron_44 wrote:I'm really surprised we don't see Chavez Young on more top prospect lists. The kid is 21, he hit .285/.363/.445 in Lansing this year over 125 games (470 AB's), he can play CF and out of nowhere was he was tied for 1st in our entire system with 44 SB's (in 57 attempts). He's also a switch hitter who slashed .324/.388/.520 in the 41 games where he was the lead off hitter...something the Jays lineup desperately needs.
Another sleeper for next season is our 5th round pick from 2017 is Cullen Large. He started out on fire this season slashing .316/.411/.568 over 27 games before he got hurt and had to miss the rest of the season.
To start the season, I would like to see something like the following:
Dunedin
LF- Lundquist
CF-Polacios
RF- Young
3B- Large
SS- Warmoth
2B- Taylor
1B- Clemens
C- Adams
Harold Ramirez, a corner outfielder initially acquired by the Blue Jays at the 2016 trade deadline, has elected free agency.
Ramirez spent the 2018 season with Toronto’s New Hampshire affiliate, hitting .320/.365/.471 with 11 home runs and 37 doubles in his third season at double-A. A right-handed hitter, Ramirez stolen 16 bases in 18 attempts.