Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG

[rcklsscognition]

[Def Swami]

[Furinkazan]

[YosemiteSam]

Josh Robbins answered my question in his mailbag:

https://theathletic.com/592443/ (subscription required)

@JoshuaBRobbins
· Oct 15, 2018
Any questions for an upcoming Magic Mailbag? If so, please ask away, and please include the tag #AskJoshRobbins.

@YosemiteSam21
Has Magic leadership ever addressed why they cannot seem to acquire shooting? Is it scheme or personnel? Too many years in a row now for it not to be intentional in today's NBA where shooting is at a premium - it makes the team bad and unenjoyable to watch play #AskJoshRobbins

You’re correct: The current Magic front-office tandem of Weltman and Hammond have valued height and long arms — positional size — over NBA-ready shooting ability.

In theory, shooting can be taught and improved.

Height and long arms cannot be taught.

There is a pattern here. Iwundu and Melvin Frazier Jr. underwhelmed as shooters in college. Even Jerian Grant and Simmons struggled as shooters before Orlando brought them aboard. Isaac and Bamba showed potential as shooters during their one-and-done college seasons, but even they are far from finished products on the offensive end.

In all of these cases, the Magic are betting that the players they’ve drafted or signed will work hard enough to improve their shooting.

This was one of the approaches that hurt the Magic’s previous front-office tandem of GM Rob Hennigan and assistant GM Scott Perry.

Victor Oladipo, Gordon and Elfrid Payton were subpar shooters in college, but Hennigan and Perry believed they could improve. Oladipo has improved — but it took him until his fourth and fifth seasons (when he was with Oklahoma City and Indiana, respectively) to make that jump. Gordon made strides last season but still has a long way to go. And Payton’s failure to improve was one of the factors that prompted Weltman and Hammond to trade him last season.

Make no mistake, shooting is critical, especially with the way the NBA game is evolving. These days, good teams have at least four capable 3-point shooters on the floor at all times. The Magic likely won’t have enough quality shooting this season. It’s one of the team’s biggest flaws.

[rcklsscognition]

That's one of those smack yourself in the forehead answers. We've all gone through this thought process. If shooting is so hard to find, why not draft for it? If it is so easy to find, how have they never found a good shooter maybe outside of Fournier? In the end I think it winds up a choice where you are looking at a bunch of lesser-talented draft pick choices and you roll the dice each and every year on the guy with the physical tools and not the actual basketball skills and pray they can learn how to dribble, pass, and shoot.

[rcklsscognition]

Watch on YouTube

Pretty cool video

[PennytoShaq]

Robbins is correct. I think the thing is that a lot of GMs add shooting last. It’s basically like in the NFL, how many teams rebuild with O and D line first. Not sexy and does not win games on its own but the foundation is now in place. The Magic foundation is now defense and length, so we finally have guys who disrupt the point of attack and rim protect. Also some of them can develop as shooters, but it wont happen for all. I think Iwundu will probably never be a good shooter...Frazier may, Isaac should, and Bamba should too. Grant and Briscoe - jury is still out.

I expect to see the FO add shooting and scoring next. Other teams like ATL’s new GM start with shooting, but that draft has been highly questioned. If it does not work out, they will not be able to defend anyone and teams will crowd them at the perimeter because they are one dimensional.

Hammond has said that he wants great shoooters here. I believe him. I think it’s just lower on his list when he starts a rebuild, but that is not uncommon in the NBA now.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

Robbins is correct. I think the thing is that a lot of GMs add shooting last. It’s basically like in the NFL, how many teams rebuild with O and D line first. Not sexy and does not win games on its own but the foundation is now in place. The Magic foundation is now defense and length, so we finally have guys who disrupt the point of attack and rim protect. Also some of them can develop as shooters, but it wont happen for all. I think Iwundu will probably never be a good shooter...Frazier may, Isaac should, and Bamba should too. Grant and Briscoe - jury is still out.

I expect to see the FO add shooting and scoring next. Other teams like ATL’s new GM start with shooting, but that draft has been highly questioned. If it does not work out, they will not be able to defend anyone and teams will crowd them at the perimeter because they are one dimensional.

Hammond has said that he wants great shoooters here. I believe him. I think it’s just lower on his list when he starts a rebuild, but that is not uncommon in the NBA now.

In the NFL the offense and defense are almost like 2 separate teams. Plus a NFL roster has 53 players versus 15 in the NBA. So it makes sense to work on the defense then the offense or vice versa. In the NBA, having one dimensional players really restricts flexibility and what a head coach can do. That is why the 3 and D players are so highly sought of and why we ooze at Bamba and Isaac's potential.

But like Ive been saying for a while, I want to give WeHam 3 full offseasons before I start to assess the roster and the job they are doing. They were handed very little flexibility in terms of salary cap and we had no control over the draft positions we got. I believe the next 2 offseasons are going to determine the trajectory of the team. Vuc and a few others will be off the team in 2019 offseason. Summer of 2020 is when all our terrible Hennigan contracts come off the books and hopefully by then, JI and Bamba will be perennial All Stars.

I wish we could press fast forward on this season to next season but we just have to suck it up, drink a little more and give WeHam more time.

[PennytoShaq]

Robbins is correct. I think the thing is that a lot of GMs add shooting last. It’s basically like in the NFL, how many teams rebuild with O and D line first. Not sexy and does not win games on its own but the foundation is now in place. The Magic foundation is now defense and length, so we finally have guys who disrupt the point of attack and rim protect. Also some of them can develop as shooters, but it wont happen for all. I think Iwundu will probably never be a good shooter...Frazier may, Isaac should, and Bamba should too. Grant and Briscoe - jury is still out.

I expect to see the FO add shooting and scoring next. Other teams like ATL’s new GM start with shooting, but that draft has been highly questioned. If it does not work out, they will not be able to defend anyone and teams will crowd them at the perimeter because they are one dimensional.

Hammond has said that he wants great shoooters here. I believe him. I think it’s just lower on his list when he starts a rebuild, but that is not uncommon in the NBA now.

In the NFL the offense and defense are almost like 2 separate teams. Plus a NFL roster has 53 players versus 15 in the NBA. So it makes sense to work on the defense then the offense or vice versa. In the NBA, having one dimensional players really restricts flexibility and what a head coach can do. That is why the 3 and D players are so highly sought of and why we ooze at Bamba and Isaac's potential.

But like Ive been saying for a while, I want to give WeHam 3 full offseasons before I start to assess the roster and the job they are doing. They were handed very little flexibility in terms of salary cap and we had no control over the draft positions we got. I believe the next 2 offseasons are going to determine the trajectory of the team. Vuc and a few others will be off the team in 2019 offseason. Summer of 2020 is when all our terrible Hennigan contracts come off the books and hopefully by then, JI and Bamba will be perennial All Stars.

I wish we could press fast forward on this season to next season but we just have to suck it up, drink a little more and give WeHam more time.

NFL example was a bit of reach for sure, lol. But yeah - the way teams form foundations now is a little different. In my mind, I think the Magic may see the foundation as Bamba/JI and then want to build from there via trade and draft.

[NavalAviator94]

Skin - that was a sweet play right there from Rozier. Boston/Philly opener


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[Skin]

Josh Robbins answered my question in his mailbag:

https://theathletic.com/592443/ (subscription required)

@JoshuaBRobbins
· Oct 15, 2018
Any questions for an upcoming Magic Mailbag? If so, please ask away, and please include the tag #AskJoshRobbins.

@YosemiteSam21
Has Magic leadership ever addressed why they cannot seem to acquire shooting? Is it scheme or personnel? Too many years in a row now for it not to be intentional in today's NBA where shooting is at a premium - it makes the team bad and unenjoyable to watch play #AskJoshRobbins

You’re correct: The current Magic front-office tandem of Weltman and Hammond have valued height and long arms — positional size — over NBA-ready shooting ability.

In theory, shooting can be taught and improved.

Height and long arms cannot be taught.

There is a pattern here. Iwundu and Melvin Frazier Jr. underwhelmed as shooters in college. Even Jerian Grant and Simmons struggled as shooters before Orlando brought them aboard. Isaac and Bamba showed potential as shooters during their one-and-done college seasons, but even they are far from finished products on the offensive end.

In all of these cases, the Magic are betting that the players they’ve drafted or signed will work hard enough to improve their shooting.

This was one of the approaches that hurt the Magic’s previous front-office tandem of GM Rob Hennigan and assistant GM Scott Perry.

Victor Oladipo, Gordon and Elfrid Payton were subpar shooters in college, but Hennigan and Perry believed they could improve. Oladipo has improved — but it took him until his fourth and fifth seasons (when he was with Oklahoma City and Indiana, respectively) to make that jump. Gordon made strides last season but still has a long way to go. And Payton’s failure to improve was one of the factors that prompted Weltman and Hammond to trade him last season.

Make no mistake, shooting is critical, especially with the way the NBA game is evolving. These days, good teams have at least four capable 3-point shooters on the floor at all times. The Magic likely won’t have enough quality shooting this season. It’s one of the team’s biggest flaws.

My question to you is this... and maybe you can ask Josh Robbins his thoughts...

If they don't draft Bamba at 5, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Isaac at 7, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Gordon at 4, who would've been your pick?

Seems like based on your wishes in shooting, you would've taken that chance on Hezonja... but I don't like how that turned out.

[MagicFan101]

Josh Robbins answered my question in his mailbag:

https://theathletic.com/592443/ (subscription required)

@JoshuaBRobbins
· Oct 15, 2018
Any questions for an upcoming Magic Mailbag? If so, please ask away, and please include the tag #AskJoshRobbins.

@YosemiteSam21
Has Magic leadership ever addressed why they cannot seem to acquire shooting? Is it scheme or personnel? Too many years in a row now for it not to be intentional in today's NBA where shooting is at a premium - it makes the team bad and unenjoyable to watch play #AskJoshRobbins

You’re correct: The current Magic front-office tandem of Weltman and Hammond have valued height and long arms — positional size — over NBA-ready shooting ability.

In theory, shooting can be taught and improved.

Height and long arms cannot be taught.

There is a pattern here. Iwundu and Melvin Frazier Jr. underwhelmed as shooters in college. Even Jerian Grant and Simmons struggled as shooters before Orlando brought them aboard. Isaac and Bamba showed potential as shooters during their one-and-done college seasons, but even they are far from finished products on the offensive end.

In all of these cases, the Magic are betting that the players they’ve drafted or signed will work hard enough to improve their shooting.

This was one of the approaches that hurt the Magic’s previous front-office tandem of GM Rob Hennigan and assistant GM Scott Perry.

Victor Oladipo, Gordon and Elfrid Payton were subpar shooters in college, but Hennigan and Perry believed they could improve. Oladipo has improved — but it took him until his fourth and fifth seasons (when he was with Oklahoma City and Indiana, respectively) to make that jump. Gordon made strides last season but still has a long way to go. And Payton’s failure to improve was one of the factors that prompted Weltman and Hammond to trade him last season.

Make no mistake, shooting is critical, especially with the way the NBA game is evolving. These days, good teams have at least four capable 3-point shooters on the floor at all times. The Magic likely won’t have enough quality shooting this season. It’s one of the team’s biggest flaws.

My question to you is this... and maybe you can ask Josh Robbins his thoughts...

If they don't draft Bamba at 5, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Isaac at 7, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Gordon at 4, who would've been your pick?

Seems like based on your wishes in shooting, you would've taken that chance on Hezonja... but I don't like how that turned out.

Exactly. People love to evaluate in a vacuum and forget what is actually available when we were on the clock any given year.

With Luka and Young gone, who do you take over Bamba? There is no clear answer. We can all have opinions but there is no clear reason to hate his pick or say anyone else was a better option.

You can (and many did) say Lauri or DSJ we’re better options than Isaac. I HATE HATE HATE Lauri but that is a style preference. You can flip a coin between Isaac and DSjr for me.

But look at the names behind Gordon that year. Exum, Smart, Randle, Stouskas, Vonleh, Elf ... wow. AG isn’t perfect but who on there would you want over him?

———————————————

I think we have a shot at finding a good SG prospect in the draft and there are some interesting PGs in free agency next summer. I like the idea of clearing out some vets and going with:

2019 free agent DJ
2019 draft, Frazier
Isaac, Simmons
AG, Martin
Bamba, Birch

Then slowly build up better backups. Maybe hang on to Ross or Evan?

[Skin]

Josh Robbins answered my question in his mailbag:

https://theathletic.com/592443/ (subscription required)

My question to you is this... and maybe you can ask Josh Robbins his thoughts...

If they don't draft Bamba at 5, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Isaac at 7, who would've been your pick?

If they don't draft Gordon at 4, who would've been your pick?

Seems like based on your wishes in shooting, you would've taken that chance on Hezonja... but I don't like how that turned out.

Exactly. People love to evaluate in a vacuum and forget what is actually available when we were on the clock any given year.

With Luka and Young gone, who do you take over Bamba? There is no clear answer. We can all have opinions but there is no clear reason to hate his pick or say anyone else was a better option.

You can (and many did) say Lauri or DSJ we’re better options than Isaac. I HATE HATE HATE Lauri but that is a style preference. You can flip a coin between Isaac and DSjr for me.

But look at the names behind Gordon that year. Exum, Smart, Randle, Stouskas, Vonleh, Elf ... wow. AG isn’t perfect but who on there would you want over him?

———————————————

I think we have a shot at finding a good SG prospect in the draft and there are some interesting PGs in free agency next summer. I like the idea of clearing out some vets and going with:

2019 free agent DJ
2019 draft, Frazier
Isaac, Simmons
AG, Martin
Bamba, Birch

Then slowly build up better backups. Maybe hang on to Ross or Evan?

Yup, just have to focus on development instead of winning. Trust in that process.

We've actually been quite lucky getting players that WeHam covets in the last 2 years since they've taken over. So according to their model and philosophy, we are on track at least in terms of the draft.

I get the patience they have to bear with FA, but next year is going to be a good year for us if we want to spend.

Trades... well... they did move Biyombo... but I expected more.

[Skin]

Shooting is actually not that hard to find. There are plenty of specialty shooters available. But finding a shooter who plays defense is what's hard.

That's why there is a premium to draft defenders who possess the potential in their mechanics to develop shooting over time.

Taking Grayson Allen at #6 would've been quite the torture if we had strictly valued shooting.

[yoyojw17]

Shooting is actually not that hard to find. There are plenty of specialty shooters available. But finding a shooter who plays defense is what's hard.

That's why there is a premium to draft defenders who possess the potential in their mechanics to develop shooting over time.

Taking Grayson Allen at #6 would've been quite the torture if we had strictly valued shooting.

Even though.... not gonna lie... allen has been impressive. haha

but yep.... it's a huge gamble.... one that scars them if they fail... but look like geniuses when it pays off.

[Optimus_Steel]

That's one of those smack yourself in the forehead answers. We've all gone through this thought process. If shooting is so hard to find, why not draft for it? If it is so easy to find, how have they never found a good shooter maybe outside of Fournier? In the end I think it winds up a choice where you are looking at a bunch of lesser-talented draft pick choices and you roll the dice each and every year on the guy with the physical tools and not the actual basketball skills and pray they can learn how to dribble, pass, and shoot.

That has been the strategy since Rob arrived. We've passed on some really skilled players rolling the dice on athletics and not skill.

[fendilim]

Robbins is correct. I think the thing is that a lot of GMs add shooting last. It’s basically like in the NFL, how many teams rebuild with O and D line first. Not sexy and does not win games on its own but the foundation is now in place. The Magic foundation is now defense and length, so we finally have guys who disrupt the point of attack and rim protect. Also some of them can develop as shooters, but it wont happen for all. I think Iwundu will probably never be a good shooter...Frazier may, Isaac should, and Bamba should too. Grant and Briscoe - jury is still out.

I expect to see the FO add shooting and scoring next. Other teams like ATL’s new GM start with shooting, but that draft has been highly questioned. If it does not work out, they will not be able to defend anyone and teams will crowd them at the perimeter because they are one dimensional.

Hammond has said that he wants great shoooters here. I believe him. I think it’s just lower on his list when he starts a rebuild, but that is not uncommon in the NBA now.

i would agree that shooting should be the last one. But i dont think you chose length/size over scoring.

Scorers are a lot harder to find over shooters. And if there’s a chance to draft them, SCORERS>Size>Shooters.

Defense is the one you draft last, IMO.

[OrlChamps2030]

I don’t think anyone wants the best “specialty” shooter in the lottery.

People wanted skilled scorers/shooters. When you have guys that are still struggling to handle the ball at a NBA wing caliber level I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect those same guys to eventually be your go to guy on offense.

Look at Tatum year 1 vs Aaron Gordon year 4


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[fendilim]

I don’t think anyone wants the best “specialty” shooter in the lottery.

People wanted skilled scorers/shooters. When you have guys that are still struggling to handle the ball at a NBA wing caliber level I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect those same guys to eventually be your go to guy on offense.

Look at Tatum year 1 vs Aaron Gordon year 4


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

This is true. And even for every team in the league. Landry Shamet would have gone number one if shooting should be priority of every team.

IMO, what this team lacked isnt the draft, but free agency. I think the game would open up a lot more for our young guys if we acquired shooter. But look at the shooters that we acquired, a washed up Ben Gordon and a made of glass Jodie Meeks.

[Catledge]

i would agree that shooting should be the last one. But i dont think you chose length/size over scoring.

Scorers are a lot harder to find over shooters. And if there’s a chance to draft them, SCORERS>Size>Shooters.

Defense is the one you draft last, IMO.

If this were true, Vooch and Fournier would be our top trade assets. In reality, Bamba, Isaac, and AG (big athletes, not great scorers) are our top assets (not that I want to trade them).