Political Roundtable Part XXIII

[stilldropin20]

Anecdotal information makes a bad basis for policy - always.

and conglomerated data is often manipulated both in how it is gathered and how it analyzed and how it is interepretted and how it is dispersed to push agendas. Often political agendas.

And because i have over 15,000 active dental patients and over 100,000 over the past 19 years my info is hardly anecdotal.

because i have over 2500 real estate clients over 27 years my info is hardly anecdotal.

Because i have flipped over 200 properties and currently own over 200 with almost 650 total residential units and 30 commercial units again...my info is hardly anecdotal.

because i own have owned over 650 LLC's over the years and filed individual tax return on each of them, my tax strategies are hardly anecdotal.

because i have rented out my combined 850 units to over 4500 various tenants of all types through the past 27 years of owning rental income, my info and experience with them is hardly anecdotal.

I can make thousands of generalized statements but these are the most indelible:

1. there is a small segment of the population that just never gets it together. I have rented to the wealthy, the soon to be wealthy, the nouveau riche, the poor, the very poor, the scamming pretending to be poor, the middle class.

--and some of them just never get it together...they never become gainfully employed consistently and are constantly in some state of panic. I'd say this is about 20% of the population that is 18-27. They seem to think "drama" is fun and bring a ton of it to their lives.
------------and about half of them never recover. be it prison, apathy, drug addiction, too many children they cant afford, they never escape. 30 years later and their lives are still a mess.

The other half of this 20% only appears to "recover" because their parents are wealthy enough to help or they get educated enough along the way to make enough money to pay for all of their mistakes they made in their 20's. but they still end up in some type of "messy life situations" and constantly need help and overspend on bull crap so even though the money is there they still cant afford basic life insurance because they bough stupid stuff like expensive cars, phones, clothes, or drugs.


and its this group that boot strap conservatives like me see every day...that we cant stand wasting tax dollars on these types. It doesn't matter how much you help a person like this in their 20's they will still be a hot mess in their 40's and 50's...eventually they will be exhausted from their messy drama filled life and they just sit at home...and do nothing. Bitter. Angry. And often messing their children up with poisoned minds who want a bunch of free stuff because they think free stuff is a life style.

I mentioned "tajuana" in a post above because for every tajuana that i have helped or took a chance on or did something for free there are at least 3 Suzy's. Suzy is a girl like tajuana...Except tajuana had one child. Suzy had 3 kids. With 3 different baby daddy's. She came in and Applied for a job one day. i heard her story...she talked a good game...and i hired her. then she found out i had rental units and i rented out a unit from me on section 8. Within 3 months, Suzy Stole needles from my office, stole prescription pads and forged prescriptions, Stole my business checkbook and stopped showing up for work. She Wrote $6200.00 in checks to herself. cashed them. I didn't catch it in 30 days so the bank didn't cover it. And she stayed in my rental unit for another 4 months rent free because it took that long to find another place and she didn't maintain her section 8 status properly.

Now i could have sued Suzy and pressed charges and threw her in jail. And at least a dozen guys offered to break her knee caps for free (and they would have done it). But she had 3 young kids and had a drug problem that she hid well at first and i didn't want it to be any harder on those children than it already had been. So I left it alone. And Suzy was the worst of the scammers i came across through the years. And usually i identify them immediately and have learned to move on quickly. You learn over time that people dont change. That was 10 years ago. Suzy is in Jail now for something else and her children suffer from PTSD. Suzy was a lifelong Section 8 recipient and public aid recipient. and only worked sporadically with the goal of scamming employers.

I have encountered 1000's of tajuanas. Investing in them is what America is all about. And 1000's of Suzy's redistributing tax dollars and investing in the Suzy's of the world seldom trickles its way to Suzy's children and Suzy will only spend that money on drugs. We are wasting our money on the Suzys and only further enabling their drug problems.

[gtn130]

You may dislike SD’s vibe but his financial advice is pretty damn good.

It’s terrible advice. You’re far better off putting your money in an index fund and diversifying instead of dumping your net worth into real estate and having zero liquidity or access to cash.

You guys who bought property in the 90s are delusional and have no concept of risk aversion

Gtn, I’ve been on Wall Street and investing for 25 years, this is solid advice. I sell data to hedge funds, founded a major online financial service in the 90s. Actively build black box algorithmic trading. Index funds are fisher price level investment vehicles.

We’re advocating using credit lines to buy distressed properties and working 70-80 hours a week when you’re young to gain more credit. Working your ass off, with an actual plan and hording cash in side gigs and holding down a full time job is a path to rapid success in your 20s. Do it as an LLC, worst case scenario if you can’t hang? LLC folds.

You’re a web designer right? That isn’t going to build wealth alone. FYI, I made more money in real estate post 2010 in places like Midland Texas with the shale boom vs DC in the 90s.

Again strategy, just don’t be an uninformed investor and buy a house or commercial unit without a strategy. North Dakota and Montana also have some amazing commercial opportunities.

You can make a killing taking over 10 year leases of failed fast food chains and flipping them to McDonald’s/Burger King in areas projected to see even minimal growth in industries like shale.

With that attitude you’ll get nowhere, index funds are the most basic investment vehicles already built into 401ks. You’re aiming for 2-3% returns at best, we’re just saying aim higher.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying about taking on risk, but not everyone is an enterprising single 20 something male who can move back home if things go badly. You can't really one-size this type of advice when people have disparate amounts of risk tolerance based on **** going on in their personal lives.

Obviously you won't become a millionaire if you put your money in an index fund, but it makes total sense for someone who doesn't want to take on a bunch of risk and doesn't really know what they're doing with their money.

SD20's advice is entirely rooted in his own experiences, and that's fundamentally what the problem is - that and he really has no idea how Uber works. I don't think either of you guys have a solid idea of how someone should actually go from being very poor to being very wealthy without catching a bunch of breaks along the way.

And for the record I'm not a 'web designer', and I'm probably making way more money than you and SD20 think since you guys don't appear to have much knowledge of the space. Unless you think everyone else building products for early-stage VC-funded startups is also poor and dumb, then it's a totally reasonable and lucrative field to work in. Not sure why it should even matter in this conversation, but I'm not like struggling for money or dying to make more.

[queridiculo]

No. and you keep doing this. The liberal party has shown time and time again that they don't believe in accountability or even actions having consequences when compared to the conservative side.

Nonsense.

The right doesn't have exclusive domain over accountability and responsibility, you have to be a crazy fool to think that a majority of the voting public is an irresponsible bunch of jerks.

Easy examples, abortions, Obama's clemency power exceeding all others since Truman, certain views on immigration, etc.

Huh?

If SD, Indu, and whoever else bust their backside to make the money they have, why should that go to other people? We don't live in a commune here. There are people in his examples, just like several posts ago I mentioned a guy I went to HS with, so yeah knew his situation as he was just down the street from me, had everything I had, every opportunity afforded to him. What did he do, he spent pretty much every class period at Gaithersburg High school smoking weed at some parking lot or unattended corridor. Back when i used social media (maybe 2015/6), I saw a mutual friend like one of his posts applauding ACA and other Obama measures for helping him out.

Let me get this straight, Induveca and SD20 are the only ones busting their backsides, and the lazy liberal plebs are sitting back and want to reach in their pockets, do I have this right?

Again with the absurd over simplifications.

Wealth creation doesn't happen in a vacuum. You may not think that that we live in a "commune" but we all are part of a society.

It's this collection of people agreeing to be governed under the rules that were set forth by the founders of this experiment who built the foundation on which the success of the two people you single out here is built.

You and everybody else in this country is standing on the shoulders of others.

It's the collective sacrifices, hard work, commitment and suffering that make it possible for people to strive in this country today, some more than others.

The absurd notion of bootstrapping is a romantic view that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Socioeconomic mobility has been on a steady decline since the 80s and the question you should ask yourself as a conservative is how much of that has to do with concepts like trickle down economics, defunding of social programs, the worship of shareholder value over everything else, the decline of unions, lack of funding in the educational system, changes to the penal code, etc. etc.

No doubt some people who given a raw deal in life and deserve a hand up, but there are several others who made their bed through their own decisions, and no reason for others to have to pay the price for them.

This is where our views differ.

I'm not willing to leave people facing serious hardships behind just because some jokers may be gaming the system.

You seem far more willing to cast the first stone than anybody else you paint as amoral heathens.

[pancakes3]

cutting social programs because of bad actors is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. even in SD's nightmare example of Suzy who may not "deserve" benefits such as section 8 housing or SD's benevolence of not breaking her kneecaps, her 3 kids probably do. if you're forcing the binary dichotomy of either having social programs at the risk of overclusion or cutting social programs at the risk of underinclusion, you have to choose for overinclusion - especially when the traditional straw man of affordability does not stand up to scrutiny when put against the bloated military budget.

we have all sorts of "entitlement" programs at work, chief amongst which is k12 education. nobody rails against taxpayers having to pay for dumb kids when only smart kids deserve education (unless you're idiot-demon Betsy DeVos), so there is a baseline agreement that there are certain services that the government should be providing. everything beyond that is simply a matter of reasonable debate. extend education from k12 for another 2 years, or 4 years to include community college, technical schools, or college. if everyone deserves an education, then they also deserve health care, or at least a baseline access to certain health services.

and +1 to Que in that i find this portrayal of libs as lazy, and the conservatives as some sort of paradigm of success and hard work to be nauseating. libs work for a living too, and there are some highly educated, very successful libs on this board with sufficient self esteem to not flaunt it.

oh, and like i said a couple months back when i rejoined the board, i identify as conservative. i cannot call myself a Republican because of the warped, mangled mess that is the current incarnation of the party but i value the basic concepts of hard work, fiscal responsibility (a mild laugh given how risk-inclined SD and Indu stand on this), family values, and whatever other notions of traditional conservatism you want to ascribe. i also subscribe to traditionally christian values of loving your neighbor, compassion, and understanding.

[stilldropin20]

As of right now the DOW is now negative on the year.

My most recent purchases of real estate (2016 and later) are netting almost 25% annual returns ( cap rate) on cash. (based on conventional funding). And I am averaging 6.5% appreciation over the past 2 years. (10% in 2017 and 3% so far in 2018).

So my return are about 32% annually (just on recent purchases!!!). I'm kicking the DOW's ass!!!! Again!! And that's why Goldman Sachs and UBS investment houses want to roll up my LLC into their housing index's.

GTN, Pointgod: "The golden era of real estate is dead!" FAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from it, fellas. far from it.

[dobrojim]

Identitarian = code used by people who rationalize that what most people
understand them to actually be is not how they would prefer to perceive themselves.

For instance, Richard Spencer. He's a racist but wants to be perceived more positively.

[gtn130]

SD, the golden era of real estate was literally built on fraud.

[queridiculo]

SD, the golden era of real estate was literally built on fraud.

It's also worth pointing out that many wannabe real estate tycoons lost their shirts pursuing wealth based on a real estate investments, while those with large cash reserves made a killing out of the smoldering heaps of the real estate market.

[pancakes3]

there's also something intrinsically gross about hording a basic human necessity and capitalizing on the scarcity. what's worse is that it's finite, non-portable, and non-renewable.

i generally don't hate on real estate investments but there's something about the perversion of the market in this thread that grinds my gears.

[gtn130]

there's also something intrinsically gross about hording a basic human necessity and capitalizing on the scarcity. what's worse is that it's finite, non-portable, and non-renewable.

i generally don't hate on real estate investments but there's something about the perversion of the market in this thread that grinds my gears.

Absolutely. And in lots of cases the scarcity is totally artificial and preserved in localities by people who - get this - are home owners and don't want to allow big projects creating lots of dense housing because of the impact it will have on their home values. They could easily build more dense housing in the SF area, but those projects mysteriously don't get approved.

[dckingsfan]

there's also something intrinsically gross about hording a basic human necessity and capitalizing on the scarcity. what's worse is that it's finite, non-portable, and non-renewable.

i generally don't hate on real estate investments but there's something about the perversion of the market in this thread that grinds my gears.

The other sided that is grating is that much of it is created by the tax code. Cut all of the deductions on real estate except single family ownership and it would take care of most of the problems.

Get rid of the deductions for interest, depreciation for rental property, safe harbors, pass-through deductions and home office deductions.

After that, most of it will take care of itself.

[dckingsfan]

And to add - many of the real estate ETFs more than doubled since the 2008 downturn.

[stilldropin20]

SD, the golden era of real estate was literally built on fraud.

It's also worth pointing out that many wannabe real estate tycoons lost their shirts pursuing wealth based on a real estate investments, while those with large cash reserves made a killing out of the smoldering heaps of the real estate market.

lost their shirts my butt...they filed for ch-7 or 13. Any "shirts" they were wearing they borrowed to pay for. Its mom and pop in fly over country that bought from 2004-2008 who suffered from that era. They are upside on their house after putting 20% down. Not cool!

But i owned in that era. Sold in that era. Bought in that era. Only the wannabe flippers that were cash poor lost their shirts. Those with rental income and jobs stayed put.

I sold a couple buildings in that era to get out from under them. and to raise cash to continue to flip. In hindsight, It was a stupid strategy...all i had to do was leave those building out and continue to rent those units as they were at the going rates.

But my dental business income plummeted. my realtor real estate income plummeted. And everyone's credit dried up. INcluding mine. I still have some PTSD from that era and invest more conservatively now. 2008-2010 was very frustrating as selling prices plummeted. I was coming to close with cash just to get out from under the deal.

But I also began buying up stuff in 2010 to make up for the losses from previous purchases.

the big lesson from that era??? Flip less...and buy more rental income. know your market. know your product. know your profits before you purchase. I dont buy anything with less than 20% cap rates but most investors are very happy with 10% cap rates. Its recession proof so long as liberals like you guys want section 8 housing for girls like Suzy. economy tanks and you rent it out section 8.

But savvy investors like me are mostly looking for appreciation over time.<--thats the real money!! Thats the change your life money...10-15 years later a building you bought for 169,000 is worth over $1M. You can sell it or borrow against it. When interest rates are low...you borrow against it(which is also a tax strategy!!!!)So i prefer to pay more now for buildings closer to rapidly appreciating areas or to get into the best school district. If you buy the right building, The appreciation over time always kills rental income. Always!! Rental income is just icing on the cake...But...its the rental income that allows you to rinse and repeat and buy more and more property when you first get started. So that's why section 8 is not my thing. I prefer renters that have jobs and pay. I like rehabbing and improving neighborhoods and buildings. As a child I wanted to be an architect...so rehabbing is fun for me.

[stilldropin20]

there's also something intrinsically gross about hording a basic human necessity and capitalizing on the scarcity. what's worse is that it's finite, non-portable, and non-renewable.

i generally don't hate on real estate investments but there's something about the perversion of the market in this thread that grinds my gears.

Absolutely. And in lots of cases the scarcity is totally artificial and preserved in localities by people who - get this - are home owners and don't want to allow big projects creating lots of dense housing because of the impact it will have on their home values. They could easily build more dense housing in the SF area, but those projects mysteriously don't get approved.

seriously!!!!!!

so taking advantage of one's skill set to recognize wealth building based on the scarcity in urban real estate is somehow perverting the real estate market???


But the scarcity of admissions into harvard law is OK? You are ok with that one, right? Why cant we all just go to harvard??? and become $500K attorneys? The scarcity of starting PG's in the NBA is ok? Why not have 10,000 nba teams? The scarcity of those admitted into MIT is ok? Why cant everyone be a coder/programmer? The scarcity of those accepted into med school or dental school is ok? the scarcity of movie roles in a marvel flick is ok? The scarcity of those owning social media platforms is ok?


ohhhhhh...that's right...john wall is special. George Soros is special! Robert downey jr is special. Megan Fox is special. katy perry is special. Bill gates is special!!! taylor swift and Kanye West are special...so special that we should not only promote the hell out of the scarcity of available success in their respective fields...but also buy their shoes and make up products and follow them in social media? And vote for who they tell us to vote for?

But oh those darned savvy real estate investors!!!! They save their money!!! And invest in their community!!!! And create a product!!!! And market their product!!! And sell their product!!!!! They must be evil!!!!!

Got it.

[Induveca]

Buzzfeed's analysis on uber, projected yearly driver salary of $34,164.

It fully depends on location, and it’s highly highly variable. The guy with a black car vs UberX who focuses on concerts/events/weekends and actually plans can make quite a bit.

In NYC top Uber earners are in the 80k area. Like anything else strategy is key. A generic sum avg isn’t very helpful. You’re mixing the clueless vs drivers with a strategy.

The “average” salary of a national survey of real estate agents isnt very helpful either.

80K in Manhattan is a losing strategy, no? And your point earlier was that you needed 100K, right? In most cases, Uber needs to be your side job if you are going to make a decent living.

And if you read my posts that’s *exactly* what I’ve said. Real gig and a side gig like Uber (80k was a response to your average salary of a full time driver). I mentioned I did eBay arbitrage when I was 22. Just something to bring in extra cash instead of staring at television in the evenings.

These are friendly, validated strategies to gain wealth as a young kid. Take it or leave it, but you responded completely out of context. I’m not advocating for anyone to take a dead-end job as their 9-5 in their 20s. Just work 3-4x harder than their peers to get some liquidity and invest in assets which can appreciate rapidly. Worst case scenario? Your LLC goes under. Try again, or stick with your main 9-5.

[dckingsfan]

there's also something intrinsically gross about hording a basic human necessity and capitalizing on the scarcity. what's worse is that it's finite, non-portable, and non-renewable.

i generally don't hate on real estate investments but there's something about the perversion of the market in this thread that grinds my gears.

The other sided that is grating is that much of it is created by the tax code. Cut all of the deductions on real estate except single family ownership and it would take care of most of the problems.

Get rid of the deductions for interest, depreciation for rental property, safe harbors, pass-through deductions and home office deductions.

After that, most of it will take care of itself.

I want to add that this is a political forum vs. an investing forum.

The politics of this are that we want affordable housing (or maybe some don't care about that but at least it is a notion for the greater good) and what we have (tax code) doesn't help that process.

On the investing side - taking advantage of a seriously flawed tax code is legal. I don't have animus toward those making money. Kushner didn't pay any taxes - and he may have done it legally (I don't really know this - I am just using it as an example.).

Let me add - I don't see any difference between the house flippers and the bankers taking advantage of the tax code.

Politically, don't we want to create disincentives to this non-productive behavior?

[Induveca]

The Uber suggestion is terrible.

There are plenty of jobs you can take that pay equal or more that don't require cash layout on a depreciating asset as a pre-requisite for making money.

If you can't do the math to realize what a terrible return you get from the time invested in being an Uber driver, chances are you're not going to manage to do anything worthwhile with the earnings from it either.

I advocated it as a side gig for people who want to bring in more cash, not a main job. Instead of drinking/partying at 23 after your day job it’s a good way to make extra cash.

Most people have cars, I’d merely suggest they trade in their existing vehicle for a used SUV so their car isn’t only transport to their main office but another office.

My only major point is work 2-3 jobs and as many contract jobs you can in your 20s. There should be no weekends at that age, as grueling as the lifestyle may sound to some? The money you save/invest at that age gives you exponentially more options vs your peers. And I had a blast.

(Admittedly Uber did not exist at my age, but tons of online equivalents did. Automated eBay arbitrage, how I miss thee.)

So, definitely don't have kids at that age. Abortion seems reasonable?

Sincerely where did DCK go?

[Induveca]

As of right now the DOW is now negative on the year.

My most recent purchases of real estate (2016 and later) are netting almost 25% annual returns ( cap rate) on cash. (based on conventional funding). And I am averaging 6.5% appreciation over the past 2 years. (10% in 2017 and 3% so far in 2018).

So my return are about 32% annually (just on recent purchases!!!). I'm kicking the DOW's ass!!!! Again!! And that's why Goldman Sachs and UBS investment houses want to roll up my LLC into their housing index's.

GTN, Pointgod: "The golden era of real estate is dead!" FAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from it, fellas. far from it.

This is accurate. I’m not advocating for house flipping. Now flipping a 5 year commercial lease into a 20 year lease? That’s serious money. You just have to be wise enough to hold.

Again this is just advice. I realize it’s not for everyone but areas like West Texas and North Dakota have made savvy investors millions with very little down.

But yes you have to hustle for a credit line, and take a lot of risk. Again worst case scenario, you fold the LLC.

[stilldropin20]

As of right now the DOW is now negative on the year.

My most recent purchases of real estate (2016 and later) are netting almost 25% annual returns ( cap rate) on cash. (based on conventional funding). And I am averaging 6.5% appreciation over the past 2 years. (10% in 2017 and 3% so far in 2018).

So my return are about 32% annually (just on recent purchases!!!). I'm kicking the DOW's ass!!!! Again!! And that's why Goldman Sachs and UBS investment houses want to roll up my LLC into their housing index's.

GTN, Pointgod: "The golden era of real estate is dead!" FAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from it, fellas. far from it.

This is accurate. I’m not advocating for house flipping. Now flipping a 5 year commercial lease into a 20 year lease? That’s serious money. You just have to be wise enough to hold.

Again this is just advice. I realize it’s not for everyone but areas like West Texas and North Dakota have made savvy investors millions with very little down.

But yes you have to hustle for a credit line, and take a lot of risk. Again worst case scenario, you fold the LLC.

there it is! thats the deal. get your credit up and leverage your credit against real estate rental income and appreciation. Stop hating and start participating.

50 years down the road, when rent in big cities on the coasts starts at $40K, and you get taxed out of your home you will have no one to blame. SD and indveca told you what to do.

like i said...2 years ago, let me know when you wimps are ready to raid the castles. I know where the real money is and I know how to get it.

[dckingsfan]

I advocated it as a side gig for people who want to bring in more cash, not a main job. Instead of drinking/partying at 23 after your day job it’s a good way to make extra cash.

Most people have cars, I’d merely suggest they trade in their existing vehicle for a used SUV so their car isn’t only transport to their main office but another office.

My only major point is work 2-3 jobs and as many contract jobs you can in your 20s. There should be no weekends at that age, as grueling as the lifestyle may sound to some? The money you save/invest at that age gives you exponentially more options vs your peers. And I had a blast.

(Admittedly Uber did not exist at my age, but tons of online equivalents did. Automated eBay arbitrage, how I miss thee.)

So, definitely don't have kids at that age. Abortion seems reasonable?

Sincerely where did DCK go?

Just in context with previous earlier conversations

daoneandonly and SD were on the no abortion ever but didn't want to support the young women that were mothers. But there seems to be this context of working two jobs at that age - not something that is feasible for a young woman.

Just point out the duplicitous nature of the argument (although to be fair, you weren't involved in the earlier discussions).