Rookie of the Year Odds & Predictions 2018

[payitforward]

Here are the most recent odds I've found on this year's RotY: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/rookie-of-the-year-odds. If you've got more recent odds, please post them.

There are 23 players listed here -- of which 1, Harry Giles (#13), was from a different draft class. The top 9 were also the top 9 picks in the draft (though in different order), as you'd expect -- the overwhelming majority of rookies of the year do come from the top of the draft.

At #11 is Michael Porter, which also makes sense -- in the sense that if we were sure he was physically recovered he'd probably be in the top handful.

As an aside -- what's really weird & interesting is that from #10 down to #23 (leaving out Porter & Giles for a total of 12 guys) all but 3 of them (Miles & Mikal Bridges & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) were taken after we took Troy Brown at #15.

Does that strike anybody else as strange?

In fact, the guy who is #10 on this list, DeAnthony Melton, was taken #46 -- two picks after we nabbed Issuf Sanon @44. & #21 is Jairus Lyles, who went undrafted & signed with Utah. Which means that of the 22 guys from this class who have the highest odds of being RoY (on this list), we could actually have added 3 of them to our team on draft day & directly after -- without doing any maneuvering at all (i.e. by taking say Lonnie Walker @ 15 & then Melton @ 44 & signing Lyles post-draft).

Obviously, this means next to nothing, & -- since we could not have taken any of the top 9 on that list -- it's almost certain we had no access whatever to the guy who will actually wind up as RoY. In fact, we could only have taken 2 of the top 16 on the list -- yet, we did have access to 9 of the last 13 (not counting Giles) & could have added 3 of them. It's just weird is all. Especially since Troy isn't on the list, but the next 3 guys taken are on it.

I'd say Doncic is the most likely by far to be named RoY. How about you guys?

[dckingsfan]

I always think the #1 pick the draft has the best odds if they go to a team that has a chance to take a jump. I think the Suns could do that. But Doncic paired with a good coach - that would be my #2 pick.

As an aside, I don't watch much college ball - but I did see Doncic play - he is the real deal, scores, passes defends, rebounds.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Doncic is playing in the West.

Here are the most recent odds I've found on this year's RotY: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/rookie-of-the-year-odds. If you've got more recent odds, please post them.

There are 23 players listed here -- of which 1, Harry Giles (#13), was from a different draft class. The top 9 were also the top 9 picks in the draft (though in different order), as you'd expect -- the overwhelming majority of rookies of the year do come from the top of the draft.

At #11 is Michael Porter, which also makes sense -- in the sense that if we were sure he was physically recovered he'd probably be in the top handful.

As an aside -- what's really weird & interesting is that from #10 down to #23 (leaving out Porter & Giles for a total of 12 guys) all but 3 of them (Miles & Mikal Bridges & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) were taken after we took Troy Brown at #15.

Does that strike anybody else as strange?

In fact, the guy who is #10 on this list, DeAnthony Melton, was taken #46 -- two picks after we nabbed Issuf Sanon @44. & #21 is Jairus Lyles, who went undrafted & signed with Utah. Which means that of the 22 guys from this class who have the highest odds of being RoY (on this list), we could actually have added 3 of them to our team on draft day & directly after -- without doing any maneuvering at all (i.e. by taking say Lonnie Walker @ 15 & then Melton @ 44 & signing Lyles post-draft).

Obviously, this means next to nothing, & -- since we could not have taken any of the top 9 on that list -- it's almost certain we had no access whatever to the guy who will actually wind up as RoY. In fact, we could only have taken 2 of the top 16 on the list -- yet, we did have access to 9 of the last 13 (not counting Giles) & could have added 3 of them. It's just weird is all. Especially since Troy isn't on the list, but the next 3 guys taken are on it.

I'd say Doncic is the most likely by far to be named RoY. How about you guys?

Doncic is playing in the West. He's going to be sharing the basketball with Smith.

I think Colin Sexton has the opportunity to be a 20-8 player on a playoff Cavaliers team. They're going to have more wins than Washington this year.

He or Ayton will win ROTY.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

CCJ onto something as usual.

The NBA does an annual Rookie Survey, in which they ask the rookies a bunch of stuff including whom they think will be RotY: http://www.nba.com/2018-19-nba-rookie-survey

Here are their top bets:

1. DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix -- 18%
Collin Sexton, Cleveland -- 18%
3. Luka Doncic, Dallas -- 9%
Kevin Knox, New York -- 9%
5. Mohamed Bamba, Orlando -- 6%
Devonte' Graham, Charlotte -- 6%
Michael Porter Jr., Denver -- 6%
Trae Young, Atlanta -- 6%

There's also good news for us in this:

Others receiving votes: Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento; Troy Brown Jr., Washington; Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago; Hamidou Diallo, Oklahoma City; Harry Giles, Sacramento; Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis; Lonnie Walker IV, San Antonio

[dckingsfan]

https://clutchpoints.com/mavs-news-luka-doncic-picked-by-gms-as-rookie-of-the-year/

[dckingsfan]

https://www.aseaofblue.com/2018/10/2/17654050/new-york-knicks-kevin-knox-nba-rookie-of-the-year-odds-preseason-news

[payitforward]

They were also asked "which rookie will have the best career?" Here's what they came up with:

1. Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago -- 13%
2. Kevin Knox, New York -- 10%
Jerome Robinson, LA Clippers -- 10%
3. DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix -- 7%
Mohamed Bamba, Orlando -- 7%
Mikal Bridges, Phoenix -- 7%
Collin Sexton, Cleveland -- 7%
Lonnie Walker IV, San Antonio -- 7%

Again, Troy Brown gets a little love --

Others receiving votes: Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento; Miles Bridges, Charlotte; Troy Brown Jr., Washington; Hamidou Diallo, Oklahoma City; Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LA Clippers; Devonte' Graham, Charlotte; Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis; Michael Porter Jr., Denver; Trae Young, Atlanta

A few oddities:

Wendell Carter is low likelihood in the RoY survey but gets the highest likelihood on overall career.
2 R2 picks, Hamidou Diallo & Devonte Graham, are on both lists.
But, no mention of Mitchell Robinson

Troy Brown is the lowest pick on this list w/ the exception of the 2 R2 guys & DiVincenzo. Ditto on the RoY list (but replace DiVincenzo w/ Lonnie Walker).

[dckingsfan]

Lonnie Walker knee injury is sad... And no love for Mitchell Robinson - shakes head

[FireErnie702]

Doncic is playing in the West.

Here are the most recent odds I've found on this year's RotY: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/rookie-of-the-year-odds. If you've got more recent odds, please post them.

There are 23 players listed here -- of which 1, Harry Giles (#13), was from a different draft class. The top 9 were also the top 9 picks in the draft (though in different order), as you'd expect -- the overwhelming majority of rookies of the year do come from the top of the draft.

At #11 is Michael Porter, which also makes sense -- in the sense that if we were sure he was physically recovered he'd probably be in the top handful.

As an aside -- what's really weird & interesting is that from #10 down to #23 (leaving out Porter & Giles for a total of 12 guys) all but 3 of them (Miles & Mikal Bridges & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) were taken after we took Troy Brown at #15.

Does that strike anybody else as strange?

In fact, the guy who is #10 on this list, DeAnthony Melton, was taken #46 -- two picks after we nabbed Issuf Sanon @44. & #21 is Jairus Lyles, who went undrafted & signed with Utah. Which means that of the 22 guys from this class who have the highest odds of being RoY (on this list), we could actually have added 3 of them to our team on draft day & directly after -- without doing any maneuvering at all (i.e. by taking say Lonnie Walker @ 15 & then Melton @ 44 & signing Lyles post-draft).

Obviously, this means next to nothing, & -- since we could not have taken any of the top 9 on that list -- it's almost certain we had no access whatever to the guy who will actually wind up as RoY. In fact, we could only have taken 2 of the top 16 on the list -- yet, we did have access to 9 of the last 13 (not counting Giles) & could have added 3 of them. It's just weird is all. Especially since Troy isn't on the list, but the next 3 guys taken are on it.

I'd say Doncic is the most likely by far to be named RoY. How about you guys?

Doncic is playing in the West. He's going to be sharing the basketball with Smith.

I think Colin Sexton has the opportunity to be a 20-8 player on a playoff Cavaliers team. They're going to have more wins than Washington this year.

He or Ayton will win ROTY.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

No

[dckingsfan]

Should have put my rookie comments here...

[stilldropin20]

doncic and trae young will be the best players in the draft. called it on draft night.

[trast66]

Doncic. Will receive at least 75% of first place votes.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

CCJ onto something as usual.

The NBA does an annual Rookie Survey, in which they ask the rookies a bunch of stuff including whom they think will be RotY: http://www.nba.com/2018-19-nba-rookie-survey

Here are their top bets:

1. DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix -- 18%
Collin Sexton, Cleveland -- 18%
3. Luka Doncic, Dallas -- 9%
Kevin Knox, New York -- 9%
5. Mohamed Bamba, Orlando -- 6%
Devonte' Graham, Charlotte -- 6%
Michael Porter Jr., Denver -- 6%
Trae Young, Atlanta -- 6%

There's also good news for us in this:

Others receiving votes: Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento; Troy Brown Jr., Washington; Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago; Hamidou Diallo, Oklahoma City; Harry Giles, Sacramento; Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis; Lonnie Walker IV, San Antonio

So, does a player actually need to play to be ROY?

[Ruzious]

Cool thread idea - I hadn't noticed it until now. I'll predict it'll be Bagley - even though I think JJJ will ultimately be the best player from the draft. I'm not a big fan of either Doncic or Young - I think both will have to adjust to shooting against length - not just athleticism. I pick Bagley because I haven't seen a PF that's a more natural scorer coming out of college since Blake Griffin (who knew Giannis would be Giannis?), and while Bagley's not a great defender - he's got a lot more defensive ability than Griffin - and is big, long and athletic enough to play some center. He's going to score big and rebound well as a rookie.

[stilldropin20]

Doncic's floor is almost as good as larry bird. His ceiling is the SG/SF version of Steph Curry.

i'd play him at PG and get longer everything where else. which means put dennis smith jr on the trading block for a long wing that can help with ball handling and defend and rebound.

[payitforward]

A whole bunch of rookies are looking really good. Guys from the top of the draft, sure -- like Ayton, Bamba, & Young -- but players all up & down the draft are doing well.

& does anyone remember me saying we should trade our #15 to Philly for their #s 26 & 38? & that we should then trade the #26 to the Hawks for their #s 30 & 34? & that we should have taken Spellman (30), Robinson (34), Diallo (38) & Bates-Diop (45)? & then, the moment the draft was over we should sign Allonzo Trier & Gary Clark?

What? You don't remember that? None of it? Dang!.... Are you sure?

[Ruzious]

Doncic's floor is almost as good as larry bird. His ceiling is the SG/SF version of Steph Curry.

i'd play him at PG and get longer everything where else. which means put dennis smith jr on the trading block for a long wing that can help with ball handling and defend and rebound.

See, this is something you'd say in the other thread just to get a reaction. Outside of that thread, it's okay to be real and not just try to attract attention for the sake of... attracting attention. That's like saying some rookie endodontist's floor is SD20. No chance - he doesn't know a REIT from a wrong. Am I right?

[stilldropin20]

Doncic's floor is almost as good as larry bird. His ceiling is the SG/SF version of Steph Curry.

i'd play him at PG and get longer everything where else. which means put dennis smith jr on the trading block for a long wing that can help with ball handling and defend and rebound.

See, this is something you'd say in the other thread just to get a reaction. Outside of that thread, it's okay to be real and not just try to attract attention for the sake of... attracting attention. That's like saying some rookie endodontist's floor is SD20. No chance - he doesn't know a REIT from a wrong. Am I right?

Ok...this is really a conversation about franchise players. First...let me give you my version of a franchise player. Steph, Dirk, Lebron, MJ, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Shaq (for 4 years until Kobe surpassed him and pushed him out), Duncan.

^^^I might have missed a couple (and kawhi should have been one for Pop) but those are the players not only are they good enough to build around but they sell more tickets and jerseys and just elelvate the brand to such a level that you change every single player on the roster (if you have to) so as to elevate that player.

Pros: You not only end up with a top a 3 team in NBA but your basketball and non-basketball and branding in general gains/ profits are 500(arbitrary) times greater than if you didn't have an elite franchise player. In short you do everything you can to elevate that player. Because that's what the fans want. So eventhough a team might be better off in terms of wins and losses if lebron could get off ball more. and be a decoy more often so as to lessen his load and make the team less predictable and get "the others" games going a bit more...lebron doesn't want that because it hurts his own brand and really the lakers (marketing team) dont want that either...The basketball head do want it...because they dont want to become cleveland...they dont want to become slaves to lebrons demands...especially at 35. So the lakers must carefully walk the line of developing the players as much as possible and appeasing lebron james.

dallas doesn't have those worries. They can go "all-in" on Doncic. And at 19 years old he's 10 times the player larry bird was at 19. He doesn't even have the Keys yet...but you can tell Carlisle (Cuban) is about 5-10 games away at most from running the entire offense through him.

And typical...just like i've seen in the league for 30 years...his own team mates are resisting the full Doncic take over. Natural because their own legacies and their own money is on the line.

rare is a talent comes along like Scottie pippen that could be his own man, running his own show, and being just about as good as MJ...Or like Steph how he allowed Durant into his stratosphere. Luka Doncic aint that guy. he's smart so he aint going to walk in the locker room swinging his dick and just start barking orders but He wants the keys to the car and he already knows how to drive it.

I stand by my statement. His floor is almost as good as larry bird. Any player can become content early...but if he gets a better diet and hits the gym like most rookie we are going to hear MVP chants soon. And Roy is his to lose.

[Dark Faze]

Doncic always had a very high floor. The question was moreso about what his ceiling would be, and I think that's still not well understood.

What Trae Young is doing with that middle school body of his and the lack of talent around him is pretty incredible.

[Ruzious]

Doncic's floor is almost as good as larry bird. His ceiling is the SG/SF version of Steph Curry.

i'd play him at PG and get longer everything where else. which means put dennis smith jr on the trading block for a long wing that can help with ball handling and defend and rebound.

See, this is something you'd say in the other thread just to get a reaction. Outside of that thread, it's okay to be real and not just try to attract attention for the sake of... attracting attention. That's like saying some rookie endodontist's floor is SD20. No chance - he doesn't know a REIT from a wrong. Am I right?

Ok...this is really a conversation about franchise players. First...let me give you my version of a franchise player. Steph, Dirk, Lebron, MJ, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Shaq (for 4 years until Kobe surpassed him and pushed him out), Duncan.

^^^I might have missed a couple (and kawhi should have been one for Pop) but those are the players not only are they good enough to build around but they sell more tickets and jerseys and just elelvate the brand to such a level that you change every single player on the roster (if you have to) so as to elevate that player.

Pros: You not only end up with a top a 3 team in NBA but your basketball and non-basketball and branding in general gains/ profits are 500(arbitrary) times greater than if you didn't have an elite franchise player. In short you do everything you can to elevate that player. Because that's what the fans want. So eventhough a team might be better off in terms of wins and losses if lebron could get off ball more. and be a decoy more often so as to lessen his load and make the team less predictable and get "the others" games going a bit more...lebron doesn't want that because it hurts his own brand and really the lakers (marketing team) dont want that either...The basketball head do want it...because they dont want to become cleveland...they dont want to become slaves to lebrons demands...especially at 35. So the lakers must carefully walk the line of developing the players as much as possible and appeasing lebron james.

dallas doesn't have those worries. They can go "all-in" on Doncic. And at 19 years old he's 10 times the player larry bird was at 19. He doesn't even have the Keys yet...but you can tell Carlisle (Cuban) is about 5-10 games away at most from running the entire offense through him.

And typical...just like i've seen in the league for 30 years...his own team mates are resisting the full Doncic take over. Natural because their own legacies and their own money is on the line.

rare is a talent comes along like Scottie pippen that could be his own man, running his own show, and being just about as good as MJ...Or like Steph how he allowed Durant into his stratosphere. Luka Doncic aint that guy. he's smart so he aint going to walk in the locker room swinging his dick and just start barking orders but He wants the keys to the car and he already knows how to drive it.

I stand by my statement. His floor is almost as good as larry bird. Any player can become content early...but if he gets a better diet and hits the gym like most rookie we are going to hear MVP chants soon. And Roy is his to lose.

As far as being a draw, Doncic will never come close to Bird - even with his tremendous love from European fans. Bird and Magic made a game with Indiana State... have the highest tv ratings of any college basketball game in history. And that was in an era when basketball wasn't anywhere near as big as it is now. There simply never were players anything like Magic and Bird before... Magic and Bird. They made the game popular - and MJ amped it up more a decade later. Magic and Bird was the biggest individual rivalry in sports - with the possible exception of Ali vs Frazier.

You point to Doncic being 10 times the player Bird was as a 19 year old, but at 19 - Bird - after quitting on Bobby Knight - averaged 32.8 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game while shooting 54.4% from the floor and 84% from the line - in his first season of college ball. 10 times that would be... well. In his rookie year with Bahston, he turned a 32 win team into a contender averaging 21.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.7 steals and shot 40.6% from 3. He was arguably the best shooter in the game, he passed better than most point guards and unlike any forward (Rick Barry was up there too), he was known as the best clutch player in the game, and... you'd appreciate this - the best trash-talker in the game. He wasn't regarded as a great defender, but he still averaged 1.7 steals a game for his career and 2.3 per game in the 10 all-star games he played in (9 as a starter). And who knows how many more all-star games there would have been if he didn't have a bad back. As a coach for the Pacers, he even won 68.7% of his regular season games and 61.5% of his playoff games.