Wizards 2019 Draft thread. (Tank for Zion, or OTHER NAME HERE)

[BigA]

We will lose the pick in the blow-up

The worse things go, the more pressure there will be to "make a move," and the more valuable the pick will be. It's one of the few assets that EG can dispose of without essentially admitting that his biggest moves of recent years were disasters.

By the same token, Ted allowing Ernie to trade another pick (or fire another coach) will confirm that he's all in on continuing the current Wizards' approach, which I would call "win now only without the winning."

[nate33]

By the same token, Ted allowing Ernie to trade another pick (or fire another coach) will confirm that he's all in on continuing the current Wizards' approach, which I would call "win now only without the winning."

Ted is implementing a "lose now" strategy. Great.

[Jaekast]

I hope we can make it to 9-20. Always a good benchmark that everyone is committed to tanking.

[Error Afflalo]

I really like Nassir Little's game.

[dlts20]

I'm not sold on Zions. So far his college opponents look like the same size as his HS opponents were. I want to see what he does against a height disadvantage or at least something similar

[Jamaaliver]

I'm not sold on Zions. So far his college opponents look like the same size as his HS opponents were. I want to see what he does against a height disadvantage or at least something similar

Zion is just so big...

I WONDER IF HIS BODY CAN HOLD UP UNDER THE STRAIN of multiple 82 game seasons.

after a few '3 games in 4 nights' on the road -- weighing 280+ pounds?

Seems like a recipe for knee/back issues in the coming years.

[nate33]

Watch on YouTube

Zion starts doing nasty things at 1:59.
The crossover at 2:28 is frightening.

He finished with 28 points on 11-13 shooting, only 1 turnover, against the 2nd ranked team in the league.

Edit, here's a video focusing on Zion

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

He even made his only 3 point shot attempt. It looks like he has a nice shooting touch. It's just 1 game, but he looked even better than the hype. And the other 2 freshmen looked like the real deal, as well, but Williamson is the real prize - even if Barrett is rated higher by the "experts". Ok, let's tank and trade Wall and Beal for picks.

Btw, a sleeper frosh with great bloodlines is Larry Nance, Jr's brother Pete Nance at Northwestern - 6'10 with 3 point range.

And Jalen Smith - 19 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks in his first game. I think he's a 1 and done lottery pick.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[MikeTheKid]

After watching Duke/UK I love Zion and he’s an unbelievable athletic freak but I’m 100% sold on RJ Barrett. He’s already an animal driving to the cup and he’s a solid defender already. Once his jump shot is solidified he’s unstoppable.

Cam and his touch and pace to the game is great as well. Trade Wall and getta top lottery pick ASAP or trade Oubre and Porter and look for RJ/Cam


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[Rafael122]

Yeah, everyone is on Zion, but I like Barrett more. Zion could just as easily eat his way out of the league and honestly, I'm just waiting for the kids knees to explode. Another thing, he's not going to dunk on everyone in the NBA. Small Ball 5 requires you to have a jump shot, if he can't shoot beyond 10 feet, he's screwed.

[nate33]

A reminder to everyone that the NBA has revamped their draft lottery system for 2019. The odds are far less top-heavy than they used to be.

Formerly, the worst team had a 25% chance at the #1 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick and a 100% chance at a top 4 pick. The 7th worst team had a 4.3% chance at the #1 pick and a 15% chance at a top 3 pick. The best non-playoff team had merely a 1.8% chance at a top 3 pick.

Now, they've flattened the odds and put in a lottery drawing for the 4th pick as well. Therefore, the worst team has a 14% chance at a #1 pick, a 52.1% chance at a top 4 pick and a 100% chance at a top 5 pick. The 7th worst team has a 7.5% chance at the top pick, and a 31.9% chance at a top 4 pick. The best non-playoff team has a 2.5% chance at a top 4 pick.

You no longer have to be one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league to have a meaningful chance at a top 3 pick. Now, merely by being a 35-ish win team with the 10th worst record gets you a puncher's chance (13.9%) at a top 4 pick.



EDIT: My original numbers were off slightly. Here it is updated with the correct chart.

[Ruzious]

Interesting - I thought that was the way it was before - except that now the bottom 3 teams all have the same odds for the top 3 picks.

[nate33]

Interesting - I thought that was the way it was before - except that now the bottom 3 teams all have the same odds for the top 3 picks.

I put in the wrong chart. That chart accounted for the fact that teams were actually tied in the standings. I updated my post to include the correct chart. Overall, the chart is similar to how it used to be pre-2019, with two key distinctions. First is that they have 4 drawings instead of 3 (meaning the worst team could conceivably fall all the way to #5), and the second is that the odds distribution curve is flattened. Instead of the worst team having a 25% chance at the top pick, they have just a 14% chance, with those chances being distributed a bit more evenly down the line.

[nate33]

One other impressive thing I noted about Zion is that he's a great leaper off of either one foot or both feet. Most great leapers are one of the other, not both. Having the ability to do both gives a player much more body control and the ability to slither between the defense and get to the rim, either in the half-court setting or the open court.

Dominique and Vince were 2-footed jumpers. Lebron is a one-footed jumper. Jordan could do both.

[Illmatic12]

One other impressive thing I noted about Zion is that he's a great leaper off of either one foot or both feet. Most great leapers are one of the other, not both. Having the ability to do both gives a player much more body control and the ability to slither between the defense and get to the rim, either in the half-court setting or the open court.

Dominique and Vince were 2-footed jumpers. Lebron is a one-footed jumper. Jordan could do both.

Kelly Oubre Jr is an example of a great athlete who can only jump off of 2-feet. Which is why his functional athleticism as a finisher is not anywhere near what it should be.

There are different tiers of athleticism. Zion Williamson is in the absolute elite tier for any prospect I've seen, I would also put Aaron Gordon there. Both incredibly strong and powerful leapers off 1 or 2-feet AND they have a quick second jump. A lot of athletes can get up high when they have time, but take a while to load up for their second jump. Zion and Gordon are like pogo sticks who can get up multiple times to rebound/putback or corrall a loose ball.

If anyone is doubting this guy I think they are out to lunch. For a big guy he has guard skills + "wiggle" (unlike say Ben Simmons, who I always said was explosive in transition but doesn't have shiftiness in the halfcourt) . He WILL be able to handle in the PnR at the next level.

The only questions I have are 1) how good is his jumpshot? Looks like he shoots a comfortable Zach Randolph type set shot but you never know how that will translate at the next level
2) Will his weight end up causing him injury issues down the line? He's obviously fine now but you have to think about how much you jump and land in an NBA game, and whether 100,000s of jumps over a course of his career will cause undue stress on his joints.

[Ruzious]

One other impressive thing I noted about Zion is that he's a great leaper off of either one foot or both feet. Most great leapers are one of the other, not both. Having the ability to do both gives a player much more body control and the ability to slither between the defense and get to the rim, either in the half-court setting or the open court.

Dominique and Vince were 2-footed jumpers. Lebron is a one-footed jumper. Jordan could do both.

Kelly Oubre Jr is an example of a great athlete who can only jump off of 1-foot. Which is why his functional athleticism as a finisher is not anywhere near what it should be.

There are different tiers of athleticism. Zion Williamson is in the absolute elite tier for any prospect I've seen, I would also put Aaron Gordon there. Both incredibly strong and powerful leapers off 1 or 2-feet AND they have a quick second jump. A lot of athletes can get up high when they have time, but take a while to load up for their second jump. Zion and Gordon are like pogo sticks who can get up multiple times to rebound/putback or corrall a loose ball.

If anyone is doubting this guy I think they are out to lunch. For a big guy he has guard skills + "wiggle" (unlike say Ben Simmons, who I always said was explosive in transition but doesn't have shiftiness in the halfcourt) . He WILL be able to handle in the PnR at the next level.

The only questions I have are 1) how good is his jumpshot? Looks like he shoots a comfortable Zach Randolph type set shot but you never know how that will translate at the next level
2) Will his weight end up causing him injury issues down the line? He's obviously fine now but you have to think about how much you jump and land in an NBA game, and whether 100,000s of jumps over a course of his career will cause undue stress on his joints.

I was understanding people putting Barrett ahead of him because of questions about his jump shot and wondering how anyone that big who jumps that well could keep healthy knees, but... he shoots as well or better than Lebron did at that age, and... if he's that strong at that age, he's probably got tendons that are extremely strong too - so I'm buying he's the real deal - a true phenom. His leaping ability - not just how high he jumps - is amazing - he's incredibly explosive, and I don't see anyone willing OR able to take a charge from him. And he's not fat - he's just massive.

[doclinkin]

One other impressive thing I noted about Zion is that he's a great leaper off of either one foot or both feet. Most great leapers are one of the other, not both. Having the ability to do both gives a player much more body control and the ability to slither between the defense and get to the rim, either in the half-court setting or the open court.

Dominique and Vince were 2-footed jumpers. Lebron is a one-footed jumper. Jordan could do both.

I've seen mostly highlights and snippets but I have been impressed with his handle, vision, passing, defense, and most importantly smarts and poise. Yes he is a physical phenom, but a superstar player has to want to improve on their weaknesses and not get complacent. I get the sense that Zion is competitive but humble despite his precocious fame, or maybe because of it. He seems eminently coachable, he loves the game, puts in effort on both ends of the floor and with all his power and talent he is putting in all the dirtywork hustle and team play.

BUt yeah, his first step is startling, his read and react software is swift, and he makes the smart play. Maybe not LeBJ level of passing and team smarts, but still surprising for a young player. Advanced and mature.

And hell, picture running full speed into a pick set by this dude.

[doclinkin]

Woo, another loss. Tank is rolling strong!

[Illmatic12]

One other impressive thing I noted about Zion is that he's a great leaper off of either one foot or both feet. Most great leapers are one of the other, not both. Having the ability to do both gives a player much more body control and the ability to slither between the defense and get to the rim, either in the half-court setting or the open court.

Dominique and Vince were 2-footed jumpers. Lebron is a one-footed jumper. Jordan could do both.

Kelly Oubre Jr is an example of a great athlete who can only jump off of 1-foot. Which is why his functional athleticism as a finisher is not anywhere near what it should be.

There are different tiers of athleticism. Zion Williamson is in the absolute elite tier for any prospect I've seen, I would also put Aaron Gordon there. Both incredibly strong and powerful leapers off 1 or 2-feet AND they have a quick second jump. A lot of athletes can get up high when they have time, but take a while to load up for their second jump. Zion and Gordon are like pogo sticks who can get up multiple times to rebound/putback or corrall a loose ball.

If anyone is doubting this guy I think they are out to lunch. For a big guy he has guard skills + "wiggle" (unlike say Ben Simmons, who I always said was explosive in transition but doesn't have shiftiness in the halfcourt) . He WILL be able to handle in the PnR at the next level.

The only questions I have are 1) how good is his jumpshot? Looks like he shoots a comfortable Zach Randolph type set shot but you never know how that will translate at the next level
2) Will his weight end up causing him injury issues down the line? He's obviously fine now but you have to think about how much you jump and land in an NBA game, and whether 100,000s of jumps over a course of his career will cause undue stress on his joints.

I was understanding people putting Barrett ahead of him because of questions about his jump shot and wondering how anyone that big who jumps that well could keep healthy knees, but... he shoots as well or better than Lebron did at that age, and... if he's that strong at that age, he's probably got tendons that are extremely strong too - so I'm buying he's the real deal - a true phenom. His leaping ability - not just how high he jumps - is amazing - he's incredibly explosive, and I don't see anyone willing OR able to take a charge from him. And he's not fat - he's just massive.

From what I understand, biomechanically the strength of your ligaments & tendons is not linearly proportional to muscle strength. It’s possible to literally be too explosive for your own body and overstrain your own ligaments . I read a sports science piece on Derrick Rose that explained how this is essentially why he kept injuring himself. His movements were too explosive and violent , especially with the amount of force with which he would take off and land.

Zion obviously has abnormally high muscularity and bone density, but he may not be gifted with equally strong/flexible tendons and joints. I just can’t imagine that launching a 280lbs body 4 ft up into the air repeatedly is a good thing longterm.

Hopefully he’s just a genetic freak like a Lebron or Karl Malone type who never gets injured. But I’d feel a lot better if whatever NBA team that drafts him immediately makes him cut about 15-20lbs