NCAA Canadian Watch List: RETURNING PLAYERS (1-5)

[Hair Canada]

By all indicators, 2018-19 is going to be the strongest NCAA season ever in terms of Canadian prospects. First, there’s quite an explosion of Canadians who are going to play Division 1 basketball. 20 years ago, there were less than 10. This year there will be 133. But beyond the quantity, the quality and depth are really quite fantastic and there’s a good chance for anywhere between 3 and 7 Canadians being drafted in 2019 (both rounds) and more in the following years.

This will be the first of two posts looking at these prospects and trying to evaluate their long-term chances. It’s going to be a bit long, so I’ll divide it into four parts: In this post and the next one, I take a look at 10 returning players, and then I’ll have two more posts that examine 10 prominent newcomers. The order/ranking is more or less in terms of my evaluation of their long-term chances to not only make it into the NBA (not necessarily next year), but also eventually have some impact once there. Naturally, these things are really hard to predict, so the depth is more important than the actual rankings.

RETURNING PLAYERS:

1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’6 CG with a 6’9 wingspan
Last year: 25 minutes, 10.5 points, 4 rebound, 1.5 assists, and 1 steal a game. Opened the season with a bang (27 points a game in the first two, shooting 50% from the three, with 4 assists and 4 rebounds), and looked like he might be on his way to a one-and-done. But then he cooled off considerably (just as his cousin, Shai, started to warm up), was relegated to a secondary role on the Hokies’ offense, and had many up and down games throughout the season, including inconsistent shooting.
2018-19 projection: A bit hard to predict. NAW has all the tools to become a good NBA player. But I’m just not sure enough about the passion and dog mentality. He has to become more aggressive and assertive – demand the ball and initiate plays, not just wait in the corner for the ball to come to him. Part of it, I think, has to do with a lack of creativity of the type that his cousin SGA shows. Not nearly as versatile, even though his set-shot is more natural and fluid. If he can’t show more creativity and assertiveness this year, his draft stock is going to further deteriorate. Still, if I had to gamble, I think he will have a breakout season, getting closer to 15 points and maintaining his good outside shooting. If that happens, he’ll be able to go to the draft at the end of this year. With a strong campaign, he might even become a lottery pick in what seems like a pretty mediocre draft cycle.
Draft projection: First-rounder in 2019

2. Oshae Brissett, Syracuse
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’8 SF/PF; ~6’11 wingspan (NOTE: there’s often no good data on wingspan, so the numbers here are mostly estimates that I picked up here and there)
Last year: 38 minutes per game (first among Canadians in college); 15 points, 9 rebound, 1 assist, 1 steal, and almost 1 block a game. Also gave a very good NCAA tournament; a key player in Syracuse’s deep run, showing great consistency. Probably the biggest pleasant surprise among all Canadians last year, together with SGA. Was hardly considered a top-100 player in the class by most American ranking sites, although those of us who saw him in the u18 FIBA Americas and in playing with his Canadian high school (Athlete Institute) knew better. Still, almost no one expected him to completely take over the PF position in Syracuse and put up such numbers. Plays with a lot of passion, excellent athlete, very good rebounder, and can certainly stretch the floor and shoot the three. The main weakness in his game was his shooting percentage. Shot a measly 35% from the field last year. This is partly due to Syracuse’s slow playing pace and the fact that they stretch the clock. But also because he doesn’t have a very good finishing touch around the basket (this has always has been somewhat of an issue for him).
2018-19 projection: I actually think that Brissett has already shown most of what he has in his arsenal and I don’t see him making another big jump this year. Unlike many sophomores, his minutes, by definition (as I said, he played a whopping 38 a game last year), will not increase, and playing in the same system with the same players, I also think his production is going to be fairly stable, perhaps even slightly decline with a couple of additional scorers joining the Syracuse roster. And that’s not bad by the way. If he can again put something like 15 and 10, but also improve a bit on his field goal and three-point percentage (33% last year; not too bad), he might be able to convince NBA managers that he can play the 3-and-D or a small-ball 4 in the next level, showing good defense and energy, probably from the bench. At some point last year, some mock drafts put him as high as a top-10 for 2019. I think that’s clearly an exaggeration, but he could be a potential first-rounder and become a solid NBA player.
Draft projection: First-rounder in 2019

3. Lindell Wigginton, Iowa State
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’2 combo guard; ~6’4 wingspan
Last year: 33 minutes a game; almost 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. Another surprising player. I have to admit that I did not really believe in him (and I still remain a bit skeptic). A fantastic athlete and very good scorer. But he has the size of an NBA PG with the character of a SG. Throughout his career, he’s always been an average decision maker and passer, which makes you wonder about his ability to play in the NBA. Still, he had a great season in Iowa last year, and after a few first adjustment games was mostly excellent, showing a lot of passion and explosiveness (look for his dunk against Oklahoma), and maybe most importantly shot the ball very well from beyond the arc, better than he did in high school. This is key for his NBA prospects, because if he’s not a PG (and right now he is not), he’ll have to earn his minutes by providing outside shooting for his team. In the games against current NBA players such as Trey Yang and Collin Sexton, he more than held his own and showed that he can certainly compete at this level.
2018-19 projection: Wiggy can probably improve his scoring some more and Iowa State might be a better team this year, which would certainly help his case. Hopefully, he can also show better leading guard abilities, convincing a team to take a chance on him as a CG. With another strong year (mainly in terms of his outside shooting), he could go at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second if he decides to declare for the draft at the end of this season. But nothing is guaranteed and he’ll have to show better court awareness, vision, and efficiency. Despite my professional reservations, I’m really rooting for him. Nova Scotia basketball is always punching above its weight, and there’s a lot of passion for basketball in the province. So it would be great to have a Nova Scotia native make it to the NBA, especially one who’s somewhat of an underdog like his province.
Draft projection: End of the first round or beginning of the second round in 2019

4. Emmanuel Akot, Arizona
Profile: 19yo sophomore; 6’8 SF; ~6’8 wingspan
Last year: 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist (10 minutes a game). Perhaps the most disappointing Canadian player last year given the high expectations. Was considered by some a potential one-and-done. Chose to reclassify and join Arizona’s star-studded team last year. Probably wasn’t the best decision. Suffered from tendinitis all season, didn’t get many minutes (didn’t even play in some games), and made very little impact. Arizona with Ayton also disappointed, and so he didn’t even get a chance to be part of a great winning team.
2018-19 projection: Given his production, Akot might be the biggest overrated player on my list. But I still have faith in him, so this is more of a long-term potential ranking. Arizona’s entire starting 5 will not be coming back this year. And their recruiting class is not as strong as it was in former years. This means that their level is most likely going to drop quite sharply. The silver lining is that Akot is supposed to be one of their best players, perhaps even the best. Unlike last year, if he stays healthy, he’s going to get significant minutes and will have a chance to show some of the abilities that made him a 5-star prospect in the first place. I really liked what I saw from him in high school and with the Canadian junior team – a very good athlete and defender, with smooth shooting and good passing. So hopefully he can turn things around this year and return to draft conversations.
Draft projection: Not this year

5. Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State
Profile: 21yo Sophomore (was redshirted his first year with Florida); 6’9 PF/C with a 7’4 wingspan.
Last year: 7.2 points (39% from 3, but on a low volume of shots), 4.6 rebounds and almost 1 block, in only 15 minutes per game. Came off the bench for a limited number of minutes, but showed great flashes of potential. High motor, great length, agility and mobility, decent timing for blocks, and good hands to catch the ball on the pick and roll. The budding outside shooting game is also encouraging. Definitely looks the part of a modern-day NBA big.
2018-19 projection: I really liked what I’ve seen from Kabengele in the little footage I was able to watch last year. Very long, mobile, and plays with passion and a good motor. He was raw, but made very nice strides throughout his rookie year. Reminded me of a young Chris Boucher (who’s a better shot blocker), but with a bulkier physique and some added strength. He’s very likely to get more minutes this year. Senior PF Phil Cofer, who was supposed to graduate, will be coming back for another year for the Seminoles, but I think they can play more minutes together and combine for a really good energetic front court. Kabengele is still quite raw offensively, but if he can maintain his production and energy level with more minutes, he could enter first-round conversations for the 2019 draft.
Draft projection: Probably still not this year

[JN]

Brissett will likely have his gross numbers fall, due to minutes, improvement of Dolezaj and Sidibe, and 3 new players who can score the ball in Hughes, Carey, and Boeheim.

But as an SU fan I would be very disapointed if his efficiency did not increase a fair bit. Syracuse demanded a lot out of Brissett with only 3 guys who could score last year (until Dolezaj figured it out in the last half dozen or so games). That was a lot to ask out of a frosh.

[mojo13]

Fantastic stuff Hair. Kabengele is really interesting to me and I think not on allot of people’s radar. He is supposedly still growing and up to 6’10 this year. Also I’m hearing his outside shot continues to improve. He will be a key piece for FSU and a real breakout candidate. Really looking forward to your take on some of the lesser known names like Clarke and Alexander and some of the freshmen.

[Hair Canada]

Brissett will likely have his gross numbers fall, due to minutes, improvement of Dolezaj and Sidibe, and 3 new players who can score the ball in Hughes, Carey, and Boeheim.

But as an SU fan I would be very disapointed if his efficiency did not increase a fair bit. Syracuse demanded a lot out of Brissett with only 3 guys who could score last year (until Dolezaj figured it out in the last half dozen or so games). That was a lot to ask out of a frosh.

Yes, I agree, this needs to be the main area for improvement. As I said, I think he has a bit of an issue with his touch around the basket, which was evident already in his high school days. Doesn't always have enough patience and seems to misses some relatively simple layups. But hopefully, he can improve on that this year. Otherwise, I love his game.

[Lukeem]

By all indicators, 2018-19 is going to be the strongest NCAA season ever in terms of Canadian prospects. First, there’s quite an explosion of Canadians who are going to play Division 1 basketball. 20 years ago, there were less than 10. This year there will be 133. But beyond the quantity, the quality and depth are really quite fantastic and there’s a good chance for anywhere between 3 and 7 Canadians being drafted in 2019 (both rounds) and more in the following years.

This will be the first of two posts looking at these prospects and trying to evaluate their long-term chances. It’s going to be a bit long, so I’ll divide it into four parts: In this post and the next one, I take a look at 10 returning players, and then I’ll have two more posts that examine 10 prominent newcomers. The order/ranking is more or less in terms of my evaluation of their long-term chances to not only make it into the NBA (not necessarily next year), but also eventually have some impact once there. Naturally, these things are really hard to predict, so the depth is more important than the actual rankings.

RETURNING PLAYERS:

1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’6 CG with a 6’9 wingspan
Last year: 25 minutes, 10.5 points, 4 rebound, 1.5 assists, and 1 steal a game. Opened the season with a bang (27 points a game in the first two, shooting 50% from the three, with 4 assists and 4 rebounds), and looked like he might be on his way to a one-and-done. But then he cooled off considerably (just as his cousin, Shai, started to warm up), was relegated to a secondary role on the Hokies’ offense, and had many up and down games throughout the season, including inconsistent shooting.
2018-19 projection: A bit hard to predict. NAW has all the tools to become a good NBA player. But I’m just not sure enough about the passion and dog mentality. He has to become more aggressive and assertive – demand the ball and initiate plays, not just wait in the corner for the ball to come to him. Part of it, I think, has to do with a lack of creativity of the type that his cousin SGA shows. Not nearly as versatile, even though his set-shot is more natural and fluid. If he can’t show more creativity and assertiveness this year, his draft stock is going to further deteriorate. Still, if I had to gamble, I think he will have a breakout season, getting closer to 15 points and maintaining his good outside shooting. If that happens, he’ll be able to go to the draft at the end of this year. With a strong campaign, he might even become a lottery pick in what seems like a pretty mediocre draft cycle.
Draft projection: First-rounder in 2019

2. Oshae Brissett, Syracuse
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’8 SF/PF; ~6’11 wingspan (NOTE: there’s often no good data on wingspan, so the numbers here are mostly estimates that I picked up here and there)
Last year: 38 minutes per game (first among Canadians in college); 15 points, 9 rebound, 1 assist, 1 steal, and almost 1 block a game. Also gave a very good NCAA tournament; a key player in Syracuse’s deep run, showing great consistency. Probably the biggest pleasant surprise among all Canadians last year, together with SGA. Was hardly considered a top-100 player in the class by most American ranking sites, although those of us who saw him in the u18 FIBA Americas and in playing with his Canadian high school (Athlete Institute) knew better. Still, almost no one expected him to completely take over the PF position in Syracuse and put up such numbers. Plays with a lot of passion, excellent athlete, very good rebounder, and can certainly stretch the floor and shoot the three. The main weakness in his game was his shooting percentage. Shot a measly 35% from the field last year. This is partly due to Syracuse’s slow playing pace and the fact that they stretch the clock. But also because he doesn’t have a very good finishing touch around the basket (this has always has been somewhat of an issue for him).
2018-19 projection: I actually think that Brissett has already shown most of what he has in his arsenal and I don’t see him making another big jump this year. Unlike many sophomores, his minutes, by definition (as I said, he played a whopping 38 a game last year), will not increase, and playing in the same system with the same players, I also think his production is going to be fairly stable, perhaps even slightly decline with a couple of additional scorers joining the Syracuse roster. And that’s not bad by the way. If he can again put something like 15 and 10, but also improve a bit on his field goal and three-point percentage (33% last year; not too bad), he might be able to convince NBA managers that he can play the 3-and-D or a small-ball 4 in the next level, showing good defense and energy, probably from the bench. At some point last year, some mock drafts put him as high as a top-10 for 2019. I think that’s clearly an exaggeration, but he could be a potential first-rounder and become a solid NBA player.
Draft projection: First-rounder in 2019

3. Lindell Wigginton, Iowa State
Profile: 20yo sophomore; 6’2 combo guard; ~6’4 wingspan
Last year: 33 minutes a game; almost 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. Another surprising player. I have to admit that I did not really believe in him (and I still remain a bit skeptic). A fantastic athlete and very good scorer. But he has the size of an NBA PG with the character of a SG. Throughout his career, he’s always been an average decision maker and passer, which makes you wonder about his ability to play in the NBA. Still, he had a great season in Iowa last year, and after a few first adjustment games was mostly excellent, showing a lot of passion and explosiveness (look for his dunk against Oklahoma), and maybe most importantly shot the ball very well from beyond the arc, better than he did in high school. This is key for his NBA prospects, because if he’s not a PG (and right now he is not), he’ll have to earn his minutes by providing outside shooting for his team. In the games against current NBA players such as Trey Yang and Collin Sexton, he more than held his own and showed that he can certainly compete at this level.
2018-19 projection: Wiggy can probably improve his scoring some more and Iowa State might be a better team this year, which would certainly help his case. Hopefully, he can also show better leading guard abilities, convincing a team to take a chance on him as a CG. With another strong year (mainly in terms of his outside shooting), he could go at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second if he decides to declare for the draft at the end of this season. But nothing is guaranteed and he’ll have to show better court awareness, vision, and efficiency. Despite my professional reservations, I’m really rooting for him. Nova Scotia basketball is always punching above its weight, and there’s a lot of passion for basketball in the province. So it would be great to have a Nova Scotia native make it to the NBA, especially one who’s somewhat of an underdog like his province.
Draft projection: End of the first round or beginning of the second round in 2019

4. Emmanuel Akot, Arizona
Profile: 19yo sophomore; 6’8 SF; ~6’8 wingspan
Last year: 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist (10 minutes a game). Perhaps the most disappointing Canadian player last year given the high expectations. Was considered by some a potential one-and-done. Chose to reclassify and join Arizona’s star-studded team last year. Probably wasn’t the best decision. Suffered from tendinitis all season, didn’t get many minutes (didn’t even play in some games), and made very little impact. Arizona with Ayton also disappointed, and so he didn’t even get a chance to be part of a great winning team.
2018-19 projection: Given his production, Akot might be the biggest overrated player on my list. But I still have faith in him, so this is more of a long-term potential ranking. Arizona’s entire starting 5 will not be coming back this year. And their recruiting class is not as strong as it was in former years. This means that their level is most likely going to drop quite sharply. The silver lining is that Akot is supposed to be one of their best players, perhaps even the best. Unlike last year, if he stays healthy, he’s going to get significant minutes and will have a chance to show some of the abilities that made him a 5-star prospect in the first place. I really liked what I saw from him in high school and with the Canadian junior team – a very good athlete and defender, with smooth shooting and good passing. So hopefully he can turn things around this year and return to draft conversations.
Draft projection: Not this year

5. Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State
Profile: 21yo Sophomore (was redshirted his first year with Florida); 6’9 PF/C with a 7’4 wingspan.
Last year: 7.2 points (39% from 3, but on a low volume of shots), 4.6 rebounds and almost 1 block, in only 15 minutes per game. Came off the bench for a limited number of minutes, but showed great flashes of potential. High motor, great length, agility and mobility, decent timing for blocks, and good hands to catch the ball on the pick and roll. The budding outside shooting game is also encouraging. Definitely looks the part of a modern-day NBA big.
2018-19 projection: I really liked what I’ve seen from Kabengele in the little footage I was able to watch last year. Very long, mobile, and plays with passion and a good motor. He was raw, but made very nice strides throughout his rookie year. Reminded me of a young Chris Boucher (who’s a better shot blocker), but with a bulkier physique and some added strength. He’s very likely to get more minutes this year. Senior PF Phil Cofer, who was supposed to graduate, will be coming back for another year for the Seminoles, but I think they can play more minutes together and combine for a really good energetic front court. Kabengele is still quite raw offensively, but if he can maintain his production and energy level with more minutes, he could enter first-round conversations for the 2019 draft.
Draft projection: Probably still not this year

Posters like you and posts like this are the reason I still come to this forum despite all the trolls, deroza/ Casey homer should that cannot let go, insecurities and skip posts

Thank you

[NotMyKawhi]

This imo will be the best year for Canadian NCAA talent ever

I think RJ goes #1, I think Simi will go top 10 by seasons end..I like his game, I watched him beast Bol Bol.

And nembhard will lead the NCAA in assits.

[TrueNorth31]

Great stuff.

Jay Triano was on the Scott Macarthur show last week and said he expected 5 Canadians to be drafted in the first round this year ( I think Triano is a good source as he would have access to NBA insider scouting reports)

I thought Virginia Tech handled Walker poorly last year. You'd have to think the success of cousin Shai Alexander will have a positive impact.

What's amazing is that our World Champion U19 team could have had several of these players on it's roster. Sometimes though, less is often more when building a team. Would Barrett have dominated like he did with a packed roster? I guess we'll never know.

[Hair Canada]

Posters like you and posts like this are the reason I still come to this forum despite all the trolls, deroza/ Casey homer should that cannot let go, insecurities and skip posts

Thank you

Thanks, much appreciated. I think we might not be a very large community (those who care about Canadian basketball, rather than just the Raptors), but it's good to know that some of us share these interests.

[mojo13]

Great stuff.

Jay Triano was on the Scott Macarthur show last week and said he expected 5 Canadians to be drafted in the first round this year ( I think Triano is a good source as he would have access to NBA insider scouting reports)

I thought Virginia Tech handled Walker poorly last year. You'd have to think the success of cousin Shai Alexander will have a positive impact.

What's amazing is that our World Champion U19 team could have had several of these players on it's roster. Sometimes though, less is often more when building a team. Would Barrett have dominated like he did with a packed roster? I guess we'll never know.

5 would be fantastic - still loads of what ifs though. Its a coin toss on guys like Simi, Dort, NAW, Wigginton, Brissett staying another year. But there are so many sleepers like Kabengele, Nembhard, Clarke and Brazdeikis that I am liking more and more and could pop into the 2019 draft. If everything broke the right way we could see 7 or more. Doubtful but amazing to think about.

[JN]

Brissett will likely have his gross numbers fall, due to minutes, improvement of Dolezaj and Sidibe, and 3 new players who can score the ball in Hughes, Carey, and Boeheim.

But as an SU fan I would be very disapointed if his efficiency did not increase a fair bit. Syracuse demanded a lot out of Brissett with only 3 guys who could score last year (until Dolezaj figured it out in the last half dozen or so games). That was a lot to ask out of a frosh.

Yes, I agree, this needs to be the main area for improvement. As I said, I think he has a bit of an issue with his touch around the basket, which was evident already in his high school days. Doesn't always have enough patience and seems to misses some relatively simple layups. But hopefully, he can improve on that this year. Otherwise, I love his game.

Your analysis is bagn on.

His touch around the basket, whether putbacks, or on drives, is certainly a problem. And given that he can get the basket fairly well for his size, and gets plenty of offensive boards it is a massive frustration for Syracuse fans.

[Hair Canada]

Great stuff.

Jay Triano was on the Scott Macarthur show last week and said he expected 5 Canadians to be drafted in the first round this year ( I think Triano is a good source as he would have access to NBA insider scouting reports)

I thought Virginia Tech handled Walker poorly last year. You'd have to think the success of cousin Shai Alexander will have a positive impact.

What's amazing is that our World Champion U19 team could have had several of these players on it's roster. Sometimes though, less is often more when building a team. Would Barrett have dominated like he did with a packed roster? I guess we'll never know.

5 would be fantastic - still loads of what ifs though. Its a coin toss on guys like Simi, Dort, NAW, Wigginton, Brissett staying another year. But there are so many sleepers like Kabengele, Nembhard, Clarke and Brazdeikis that I am liking more and more and could pop into the 2019 draft. If everything broke the right way we could see 7 or more. Doubtful but amazing to think about.

I agree. Basically, except for Barrett, no one is guaranteed to go this year. With this many candidates, it's reasonable to think that at least one or two others will go this year. But so much depends on how they perform. In any case, I think the nice thing is that at the very least we'll have Canadian draft picks on a yearly basis over the next couple of years.

[MEDIC]

I remember seeing NAW for the first time at biosteel a couple of years back. He passed rhe eye test then & I thought he looked like a future NBA player. You could tell he was a level above some of the other players. Not to the same extent as Murry, but it was noticeable.

He has the length, athleticism & skill. Just needs polish. Maybe not a star, but I can see him having a long career & being a good role player/ starter.

[Hair Canada]

I remember seeing NAW for the first time at biosteel a couple of years back. He passed rhe eye test then & I thought he looked like a future NBA player. You could tell he was a level above some of the other players. Not to the same extent as Murry, but it was noticeable.

He has the length, athleticism & skill. Just needs polish. Maybe not a star, but I can see him having a long career & being a good role player/ starter.

I agree he's sort of got it all. But I think more than polish, he's got to come out of his shell and be more daring. Hope this is his breakout year at Virginia Tech.