#8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project

[trex_8063]

Given his DRAPM numbers, might it be worth inputting Jaren Jackson Sr's data and see where he comes out? Just a suggestion.

I thought about him (and I'm happy to run the numbers if people want), but I wrote him off of consideration personally because he's got just 7,210 career minutes to his name (that's 431 games @ <17 mpg). I'll probably look at his numbers later as a curiosity, but that relatively tiny sample renders him illegitimate for me.

[trex_8063]

Eesh, this feels kinda like throwing a dart, I'm so undecided. Want to have a pick though, so I'm ironically going to go with a guy I'd forgotten to even mention in my first post itt.

Vote: Danny Green

As shown here:

Spoiler:

So I used DRAPM (PI, where available) for '97-'18, and utilized the rs APM (or pseudo-APM) that colts18 had provided for '94-'96 and made "educated guesses" at the defensive split for players who were active in that span (yes, that's a little "noisy" for those years, but better than nothing).
And then, just so I could be more complete on guys like Joe Dumars (and to lesser degree Stacey Augmon), and so I could be inclusive of Don Chaney, I utilized shutupandjam's estimated impact defensive splits [one of the metric Bounce_9 used] for years '93 and prior. Yes, I realize that violates the premise of using something which does NOT utilize box inputs for those individuals, as well as makes it NOT quite an apples to apples comparison with those players.

I thought -1.5 is fair overall representation of a replacement-level player in the used impact metrics, and assumed that roughly half of that is coming on the defensive end (i.e. -0.75 DRAPM assumed for replacement level). So for each year of a player's career, I took the difference from replacement-level and multiplied by the minutes played.
Below are the results.....

CAREER Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha - 47,383.8
Danny Green - 36,011.6
Stacey Augmon - 35,545.3
Doug Christie - 31,770.4
Jimmy Butler - 30,445.8
Dwyane Wade - 28,323.8
Joe Dumars - 22,583.0
*Don Chaney (*'76 not included)- 21,792.2
Andre Roberson - 19,433.8
Kobe Bryant - 13,224.5

Best Single Year Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha ('13) - 11,479.35
Doug Christie ('03) - 11,246.5
Danny Green ('16) - 7,918.1
Stacey Augmon ('94) - 7,085.6
Jimmy Butler ('18) - 6,643.5
Dwyane Wade ('06) - 6,507.0
Kobe Bryant ('10) - 5,811.75
Andre Roberson ('17) - 5,702.4
Don Chaney ('73) - 4,354.0
Joe Dumars ('91) - 3,807.5

AVERAGE Defensive Value Above Replacement (per season)
Jimmy Butler - 4,349.4
Danny Green - 4,001.3
Thabo Sefolosha - 3,948.6
Andre Roberson - 3,886.8
Doug Christie - 2,647.5
Stacey Augmon - 2,369.7
Don Chaney - 1,981.1
Dwyane Wade - 1,888.3
Joe Dumars - 1,613.1
Kobe Bryant - 661.2


Based on the above, Thabo Sefolosha and Danny Green are two guys I'm considering much more seriously than I was before looking at it this way.

......he's behind Thabo and Doug Christie in peak-season impact above replacement; in cumulative career impact above replacement he's comfortably ahead of Christie, but still behind Thabo. However, that's on just nine seasons for Green vs Thabo's twelve; as noted in avg per season impact, he comes out marginally ahead of Thabo (and WELL ahead of Christie).
This is because those peak years for Thabo and Christie are clear outliers; Danny Green's (which came in third) was not. In fact, if we were to look at the top 9 single seasons among all these guys, the list would look like this:

Thabo Sefolosha ('13) - 11,479.35
Doug Christie ('03) - 11,246.5
Danny Green ('16) - 7,918.1
Danny Green ('14) - 7,891.8
Doug Christie ('02) - 7,134.9
Stacey Augmon ('94) - 7,085.6
Jimmy Butler ('18) - 6,643.5
Dwyane Wade ('06) - 6,507.0
Danny Green ('15) - 6,496.7

^^^Green holds three of the top 9 spots (including 2 of the top 4). Doug Christie is the only other guy to hold more than one spot above, though his next best year is <3,900. For that matter, we have to go <3,900 to find Augmon's next best season, and down to around the 5,100 range to find the second-best season for DWade. Danny Green, otoh, has a fourth-best season that is >5,800.
If I did a composite of "Best 5-Year Avg", Danny Green comes out at the head of the list.

The only player scrutinized who's ahead of Danny Green in avg per season value above replacement is Jimmy Butler. However, that's on only 7 seasons, while again Green's been doing it for 9. Green's first two seasons are fairly negligible, fwiw, and if we eliminate them from the equation and take the average of his last seven seasons (same number of years as Butler's avg is derived from), Green's 7-year avg is a monstrous 5,148.0 (well above Butler's).

He also holds up nice in counting stats and box-derived advanced metrics: career avg of 2.0 steals, 1.7 blocks, 5.8 DRebs per 100 possessions, with a career -4.8 rDRTG and +2.1 DBPM. In both '14 and '15, the defensive split of Green's Estimated Impact came out slightly ahead of '13 Sefolosha's.

EDIT: Could see myself switching my vote (likely to any one of Sefolosha, Butler, or maybe Don Chaney) in future threads if Green just doesn't gain any traction. They all seem very close to me; kinda splittin' hairs. Seems like Dumars is going to coast to victory in this round.

[penbeast0]

When I watch Green, he has never stood out as a great defender. His guys seem to be able to get their norms in the flow of their offenses, he doesn't seem to create havoc and turnovers, he isn't super quick, or strong, or good at anything in particular. I am sort of shocked that he came off so well.

[Owly]

Given his DRAPM numbers, might it be worth inputting Jaren Jackson Sr's data and see where he comes out? Just a suggestion.

I thought about him (and I'm happy to run the numbers if people want), but I wrote him off of consideration personally because he's got just 7,210 career minutes to his name (that's 431 games @ <17 mpg). I'll probably look at his numbers later as a curiosity, but that relatively tiny sample renders him illegitimate for me.

Depends what you mean by "renders him illegitimate" (questioning the accuracy of the numbers with that sample or just rules him with not enough time for value ...) and I'm not hugely pro-Jackson so much as putting a case out there ...

You've just said the numbers boosted you on two relatively low minute defensive specialists (Green and Thabo at very roughly circa half Wade's career minutes and 1/3 of Kobe's). The value of extra minutes (in terms of metric accuracy) probably isn't linear and Jackson isn't hugely out ahead of Thabo in 97-14 RAPM sample so I wouldn't expect him to come out on top or anything.

It just seemed like someone worth looking at the data on before moving on the next position, even if he's not realistically getting in.

[trex_8063]

Given his DRAPM numbers, might it be worth inputting Jaren Jackson Sr's data and see where he comes out? Just a suggestion.

I thought about him (and I'm happy to run the numbers if people want), but I wrote him off of consideration personally because he's got just 7,210 career minutes to his name (that's 431 games @ <17 mpg). I'll probably look at his numbers later as a curiosity, but that relatively tiny sample renders him illegitimate for me.

Depends what you mean by "renders him illegitimate" (questioning the accuracy of the numbers with that sample or just rules him with not enough time for value ...) and I'm not hugely pro-Jackson so much as putting a case out there ...

You've just said the numbers boosted you on two relatively low minute defensive specialists (Green and Thabo at very roughly circa half Wade's career minutes and 1/3 of Kobe's). The value of extra minutes (in terms of metric accuracy) probably isn't linear and Jackson isn't hugely out ahead of Thabo in 97-14 RAPM sample so I wouldn't expect him to come out on top or anything.

It just seemed like someone worth looking at the data on before moving on the next position, even if he's not realistically getting in.

OK, ran his figures (had to use Estimated Impact figures for all years before '97 because colts18 didn't include tiny minute players [or players subject to mid-season trades] in his pseudo-APM model for '94-'96).

His peak season ('98) scores a 9,349.2 (would place him 3rd, behind just Thabo and Christie). However, there's then a huge drop-off (more than halved) to his next best season (4,451.4), and then a drop of >1,000 to his 3rd-best season, another drop of >1,300 to his 4th-best, drop another >2,000 to his 5th-best (are mostly small negatives after that).

His career cumulative amount is 19,078.0 (ahead of Kobe Bryant's, but behind everyone else's I'd run).

His avg year is 1,589.8 (again ahead of Kobe, but behind everyone else).

His Best 5-year Avg is ahead of Stacey Augmon, Joe Dumars, and Don Chaney, but behind everyone else.

[Owly]

I thought about him (and I'm happy to run the numbers if people want), but I wrote him off of consideration personally because he's got just 7,210 career minutes to his name (that's 431 games @ <17 mpg). I'll probably look at his numbers later as a curiosity, but that relatively tiny sample renders him illegitimate for me.

Depends what you mean by "renders him illegitimate" (questioning the accuracy of the numbers with that sample or just rules him with not enough time for value ...) and I'm not hugely pro-Jackson so much as putting a case out there ...

You've just said the numbers boosted you on two relatively low minute defensive specialists (Green and Thabo at very roughly circa half Wade's career minutes and 1/3 of Kobe's). The value of extra minutes (in terms of metric accuracy) probably isn't linear and Jackson isn't hugely out ahead of Thabo in 97-14 RAPM sample so I wouldn't expect him to come out on top or anything.

It just seemed like someone worth looking at the data on before moving on the next position, even if he's not realistically getting in.

OK, ran his figures (had to use Estimated Impact figures for all years before '97 because colts18 didn't include tiny minute players [or players subject to mid-season trades] in his pseudo-APM model for '94-'96).

His peak season ('98) scores a 9,349.2 (would place him 3rd, behind just Thabo and Christie). However, there's then a huge drop-off (more than halved) to his next best season (4,451.4), and then a drop of >1,000 to his 3rd-best season, another drop of >1,300 to his 4th-best, drop another >2,000 to his 5th-best (are mostly small negatives after that).

His career cumulative amount is 19,078.0 (ahead of Kobe Bryant's, but behind everyone else's I'd run).

His avg year is 1,589.8 (again ahead of Kobe, but behind everyone else).

His Best 5-year Avg is ahead of Stacey Augmon, Joe Dumars, and Don Chaney, but behind everyone else.

Are you doing 1999 pro-rated to an 82-game equivalent. Wouldn't have expected you to, and would understand why not, that it hasn't been done for others, more work etc, and that the smaller sample makes results accuracy shakier.

Still, for impact on team winning, I think you'd want to pro-rate. And 1999, from "A Screaming ..." looks like close to 98 NPI, and better PI. It still won't be 1998 levels because of minutes but it would still be his 3rd highest minutes total (equivalent of 1412.04 mins in an 82 game schedule [I suppose technically this is assuming the same proportion of the remaining games go to overtime - fwiw Jackson and the Spurs played in 3 OT games]).

[Dr Positivity]

Vote Danny Green

I'm sold on some of the arguments Dumars may have had some Avery Bradley in him where it looked better than his real impact due to his size. Green has some of the best +/- data backing him up of the remaining candidates and a nice mix of help and single coverage defense. Shotblocking and transition defense is also excellent

[trex_8063]

Are you doing 1999 pro-rated to an 82-game equivalent. Wouldn't have expected you to, and would understand why not, that it hasn't been done for others, more work etc, and that the smaller sample makes results accuracy shakier.

Still, for impact on team winning, I think you'd want to pro-rate. And 1999, from "A Screaming ..." looks like close to 98 NPI, and better PI. It still won't be 1998 levels because of minutes but it would still be his 3rd highest minutes total (equivalent of 1412.04 mins in an 82 game schedule [I suppose technically this is assuming the same proportion of the remaining games go to overtime - fwiw Jackson and the Spurs played in 3 OT games]).

No, that's a good point, though. I should pro-rate '99 (and '12 too). I'll get around to that later on tonight hopefully.

[cecilthesheep]

When I watch Green, he has never stood out as a great defender. His guys seem to be able to get their norms in the flow of their offenses, he doesn't seem to create havoc and turnovers, he isn't super quick, or strong, or good at anything in particular. I am sort of shocked that he came off so well.

This is gonna be a mostly anecdotal Danny Green Scouting Report from someone who's watched a majority of Spurs games for the last five years or so. Other people in other places have made the statistical cases for him, so I'll endeavor to explain what to look for on the court to understand why he's so impactful.

Danny's a lot stronger than he looks (part of why Pop used to put him on KD and let Kawhi defend Westbrook), a good post defender and switchable guy as a result, and while his speed isn't elite, something that I'll call his economy of motion is. He doesn't need to be the quickest guy, because he moves his feet perfectly and is rarely to never out of position relative to his man. Basically he doesn't really need to cover a ton of ground or make quick directional changes, because he's already there. That's why he can guard quick 1s and 2s without getting embarrassed. Awesome team defender, too; top 5 shot blocking guard ever, partly because he uses length and timing to challenge shots at a very high level and partly because his help defense at the rim is always smart and on time.

He also deserves consideration as the best transition defender in league history, across all positions. I can't count the times I saw him break up 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 breaks. It got to the point where as a Spurs fan I wasn't even very concerned when Danny was the only guy back with multiple people coming at him; he stopped those attacks so much of the time that other teams actually stopped attempting them against him very often. Watch the 2013 Finals for some great examples of this - his shooting wasn't the only reason he was in consideration for MVP of that series. Here's an old Zach Lowe article about it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/danny-green-spurs-transition-defense/

He only has two real weaknesses that I can think of: a tendency in his younger years to fall asleep off the ball, and a bad habit of falling for pump fakes from 3 harder than anyone I've ever seen. It makes him look ridiculous; if he's recovering on a shooter, they barely have to twitch the ball to send him flying off into orbit.

Overall, Green's not a player who's going to pop off the screen as someone who smothers everyone he faces or gets a bunch of steals. The average steal totals are mostly because he doesn't really play passing lanes, preferring to stick close to his guy; he generates turnovers one-on-one at a pretty good rate. What he does is just about every piece of unheralded dirty work there is to do - unglamorous, conservative man defense, help at the rim, rebounding, switching, hustling for loose balls, and of course stopping fast breaks. He can defend 1 through 3 at a high level plus he can cope against most modern 4s, and he excels at making everything his opponent has to do just that much more difficult to where they'll be tired and start making poor decisions by crunch time.

A lot of people are wondering why the Spurs defense was good last year despite no Kawhi but total garbage this year, and I can tell you the single biggest factor is Danny Green. He kept people like Pau Gasol from getting embarrassed too much, and his absence has been sorely apparent through 7 games so far.

[SHAQ32]

I like Doug Christie in this spot. Could go with a few other guys, but I believe Doug maintained as high (or higher) defensive impact on the court and in the numbers without as much defensive talent/coaching around him.

[trex_8063]

Spoiler:

When I watch Green, he has never stood out as a great defender. His guys seem to be able to get their norms in the flow of their offenses, he doesn't seem to create havoc and turnovers, he isn't super quick, or strong, or good at anything in particular. I am sort of shocked that he came off so well.

This is gonna be a mostly anecdotal Danny Green Scouting Report from someone who's watched a majority of Spurs games for the last five years or so. Other people in other places have made the statistical cases for him, so I'll endeavor to explain what to look for on the court to understand why he's so impactful.

Danny's a lot stronger than he looks (part of why Pop used to put him on KD and let Kawhi defend Westbrook), a good post defender and switchable guy as a result, and while his speed isn't elite, something that I'll call his economy of motion is. He doesn't need to be the quickest guy, because he moves his feet perfectly and is rarely to never out of position relative to his man. Basically he doesn't really need to cover a ton of ground or make quick directional changes, because he's already there. That's why he can guard quick 1s and 2s without getting embarrassed. Awesome team defender, too; top 5 shot blocking guard ever, partly because he uses length and timing to challenge shots at a very high level and partly because his help defense at the rim is always smart and on time.

He also deserves consideration as the best transition defender in league history, across all positions. I can't count the times I saw him break up 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 breaks. It got to the point where as a Spurs fan I wasn't even very concerned when Danny was the only guy back with multiple people coming at him; he stopped those attacks so much of the time that other teams actually stopped attempting them against him very often. Watch the 2013 Finals for some great examples of this - his shooting wasn't the only reason he was in consideration for MVP of that series. Here's an old Zach Lowe article about it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/danny-green-spurs-transition-defense/

He only has two real weaknesses that I can think of: a tendency in his younger years to fall asleep off the ball, and a bad habit of falling for pump fakes from 3 harder than anyone I've ever seen. It makes him look ridiculous; if he's recovering on a shooter, they barely have to twitch the ball to send him flying off into orbit.

Overall, Green's not a player who's going to pop off the screen as someone who smothers everyone he faces or gets a bunch of steals. The average steal totals are mostly because he doesn't really play passing lanes, preferring to stick close to his guy; he generates turnovers one-on-one at a pretty good rate. What he does is just about every piece of unheralded dirty work there is to do - unglamorous, conservative man defense, help at the rim, rebounding, switching, hustling for loose balls, and of course stopping fast breaks. He can defend 1 through 3 at a high level plus he can cope against most modern 4s, and he excels at making everything his opponent has to do just that much more difficult to where they'll be tired and start making poor decisions by crunch time.

A lot of people are wondering why the Spurs defense was good last year despite no Kawhi but total garbage this year, and I can tell you the single biggest factor is Danny Green. He kept people like Pau Gasol from getting embarrassed too much, and his absence has been sorely apparent through 7 games so far.

This sounds about right to me, though I never realized what a force he was busting a fast-break; I don't watch the Spurs on a regular basis, though, so I'll certainly defer to you on that. I'll be watching more of him now that he's a Raptor.

So are you casting a vote this round? Green's catching up to Dumars; not sure when OP is gonna pull the plug on this one.

[cecilthesheep]

Spoiler:

When I watch Green, he has never stood out as a great defender. His guys seem to be able to get their norms in the flow of their offenses, he doesn't seem to create havoc and turnovers, he isn't super quick, or strong, or good at anything in particular. I am sort of shocked that he came off so well.

This is gonna be a mostly anecdotal Danny Green Scouting Report from someone who's watched a majority of Spurs games for the last five years or so. Other people in other places have made the statistical cases for him, so I'll endeavor to explain what to look for on the court to understand why he's so impactful.

Danny's a lot stronger than he looks (part of why Pop used to put him on KD and let Kawhi defend Westbrook), a good post defender and switchable guy as a result, and while his speed isn't elite, something that I'll call his economy of motion is. He doesn't need to be the quickest guy, because he moves his feet perfectly and is rarely to never out of position relative to his man. Basically he doesn't really need to cover a ton of ground or make quick directional changes, because he's already there. That's why he can guard quick 1s and 2s without getting embarrassed. Awesome team defender, too; top 5 shot blocking guard ever, partly because he uses length and timing to challenge shots at a very high level and partly because his help defense at the rim is always smart and on time.

He also deserves consideration as the best transition defender in league history, across all positions. I can't count the times I saw him break up 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 breaks. It got to the point where as a Spurs fan I wasn't even very concerned when Danny was the only guy back with multiple people coming at him; he stopped those attacks so much of the time that other teams actually stopped attempting them against him very often. Watch the 2013 Finals for some great examples of this - his shooting wasn't the only reason he was in consideration for MVP of that series. Here's an old Zach Lowe article about it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/danny-green-spurs-transition-defense/

He only has two real weaknesses that I can think of: a tendency in his younger years to fall asleep off the ball, and a bad habit of falling for pump fakes from 3 harder than anyone I've ever seen. It makes him look ridiculous; if he's recovering on a shooter, they barely have to twitch the ball to send him flying off into orbit.

Overall, Green's not a player who's going to pop off the screen as someone who smothers everyone he faces or gets a bunch of steals. The average steal totals are mostly because he doesn't really play passing lanes, preferring to stick close to his guy; he generates turnovers one-on-one at a pretty good rate. What he does is just about every piece of unheralded dirty work there is to do - unglamorous, conservative man defense, help at the rim, rebounding, switching, hustling for loose balls, and of course stopping fast breaks. He can defend 1 through 3 at a high level plus he can cope against most modern 4s, and he excels at making everything his opponent has to do just that much more difficult to where they'll be tired and start making poor decisions by crunch time.

A lot of people are wondering why the Spurs defense was good last year despite no Kawhi but total garbage this year, and I can tell you the single biggest factor is Danny Green. He kept people like Pau Gasol from getting embarrassed too much, and his absence has been sorely apparent through 7 games so far.

This sounds about right to me, though I never realized what a force he was busting a fast-break; I don't watch the Spurs on a regular basis, though, so I'll certainly defer to you on that. I'll be watching more of him now that he's a Raptor.

So are you casting a vote this round? Green's catching up to Dumars; not sure when OP is gonna pull the plug on this one.

I'm pretty much dead even between Green and Chaney. Currently watching all the Chaney film I can find. I have about an hour and a half until 48 hours since the thread went up; I might vote for Green just because he has more of a shot to pass Dumars, who I remain down on.

[iggymcfrack]

Spoiler:

This is gonna be a mostly anecdotal Danny Green Scouting Report from someone who's watched a majority of Spurs games for the last five years or so. Other people in other places have made the statistical cases for him, so I'll endeavor to explain what to look for on the court to understand why he's so impactful.

Danny's a lot stronger than he looks (part of why Pop used to put him on KD and let Kawhi defend Westbrook), a good post defender and switchable guy as a result, and while his speed isn't elite, something that I'll call his economy of motion is. He doesn't need to be the quickest guy, because he moves his feet perfectly and is rarely to never out of position relative to his man. Basically he doesn't really need to cover a ton of ground or make quick directional changes, because he's already there. That's why he can guard quick 1s and 2s without getting embarrassed. Awesome team defender, too; top 5 shot blocking guard ever, partly because he uses length and timing to challenge shots at a very high level and partly because his help defense at the rim is always smart and on time.

He also deserves consideration as the best transition defender in league history, across all positions. I can't count the times I saw him break up 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 breaks. It got to the point where as a Spurs fan I wasn't even very concerned when Danny was the only guy back with multiple people coming at him; he stopped those attacks so much of the time that other teams actually stopped attempting them against him very often. Watch the 2013 Finals for some great examples of this - his shooting wasn't the only reason he was in consideration for MVP of that series. Here's an old Zach Lowe article about it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/danny-green-spurs-transition-defense/

He only has two real weaknesses that I can think of: a tendency in his younger years to fall asleep off the ball, and a bad habit of falling for pump fakes from 3 harder than anyone I've ever seen. It makes him look ridiculous; if he's recovering on a shooter, they barely have to twitch the ball to send him flying off into orbit.

Overall, Green's not a player who's going to pop off the screen as someone who smothers everyone he faces or gets a bunch of steals. The average steal totals are mostly because he doesn't really play passing lanes, preferring to stick close to his guy; he generates turnovers one-on-one at a pretty good rate. What he does is just about every piece of unheralded dirty work there is to do - unglamorous, conservative man defense, help at the rim, rebounding, switching, hustling for loose balls, and of course stopping fast breaks. He can defend 1 through 3 at a high level plus he can cope against most modern 4s, and he excels at making everything his opponent has to do just that much more difficult to where they'll be tired and start making poor decisions by crunch time.

A lot of people are wondering why the Spurs defense was good last year despite no Kawhi but total garbage this year, and I can tell you the single biggest factor is Danny Green. He kept people like Pau Gasol from getting embarrassed too much, and his absence has been sorely apparent through 7 games so far.

This sounds about right to me, though I never realized what a force he was busting a fast-break; I don't watch the Spurs on a regular basis, though, so I'll certainly defer to you on that. I'll be watching more of him now that he's a Raptor.

So are you casting a vote this round? Green's catching up to Dumars; not sure when OP is gonna pull the plug on this one.

I'm pretty much dead even between Green and Chaney. Currently watching all the Chaney film I can find. I have about an hour and a half until 48 hours since the thread went up; I might vote for Green just because he has more of a shot to pass Dumars, who I remain down on.

1974 Celtics (with Chaney): 95.1 DRtg (6th out of 17)
1975 Celtics (with Chaney): 94.7 DRtg (3rd out of 18)
1976 Celtics (w/o Chaney): 96.7 DRtg (3rd out of 18)

1975 Spirits (w/o Chaney): 106.8 DRtg (7th out of 10)
1976 Spirits (with Chaney): 104.5 DRtg (7th out of 9)

1976 Lakers (w/o Chaney): 98.8 DRtg (13th out of 18)
1977 Lakers (with Chaney): 98.8 DRtg (10th out of 22)
1978 Lakers (w/Chaney for 9 games): 100.8 DRtg (11th out of 22)

1977 Celtics (w/o Chaney): 98.3 DRtg (7th out of 22)
1978 Celtics (w/Chaney for 42 games): 100.9 DRtg (12th out of 22)
1979 Celtics (with Chaney): 106.4 DRtg (19th out of 22)

Those years span ages 27-32 for Chaney. Now by his last Celtics run, he was coming off the bench and he was probably a little washed so it’s probably not fair to weight it too heavily, but still it’s hard to look at those numbers and say he was having a huge impact on those team’s defenses. If you’re between Chaney and Green, I would definitely go for Green.

[cecilthesheep]

Okay, I'll cast my vote for Danny Green, and not just because he's the closest to catching Dumars right now. I was blown away by what I watched of Chaney as far as tipping passes and creating havoc as a help defender and in lanes, but I don't think he was quite the lockdown man defender that Danny is. Beyond Danny's advantage in advanced stats, the following head-to-head matchups (and some others) are part of what made the difference to me:

Durant 2010-18 overall: 28.2p/7.6r/4.3a/3.2t/62.5 TS%
against Green (17 games): 24.5p/8.4r/4.3a/3.5t/57.6 TS%
(I know Durant plays SF, but whenever the Spurs played him, he was primarily Danny's assignment)

CJ McCollum 2014-18 overall: 17.0p/3.0r/2.9a/1.8t/55.2 TS%
against Green (13 games): 14.3p/2.8r/1.7a/1.5t/48.9 TS%

Devin Booker 2015-18 overall: 20.0p/3.3r/3.5a/2.9t/54.4 TS%
against Green (8 games): 15.0p/3.0r/3.1a/2.4t/50.0 TS%

Klay Thompson 2012-18 overall: 19.2p/3.4r/2.3a/1.7t/57.5 TS%
against Green (22 games): 16.9p/3.3r/2.4a/2.0t/53.7 TS%

and I'll throw this in with a quick edit:
Jimmy Butler 2013-18 overall: 17.9p/5.2r/3.7a/1.6t/57.5 TS%
against Green (10 games): 14.1p/4.5r/2.9a/1.8t/53.7 TS%

Now, I know that to an extent this is colored by the Spurs playing good defense in general, but that is still a remarkably consistent impact against primary defensive assignments. The only guys I looked at who weren't significantly hobbled by Green were James Harden and Dwyane Wade.

In general, it squares with what I see on the court out of Danny. He's one of the best players in the league at contesting shots and getting clean blocks, as well as sticking with his man and pushing him towards the help if he does get a step. Chaney was better at playing passing lanes and getting tips/causing chaos, but Danny isn't bad at that either, and in the end I think Danny's advantage as a man defender is big enough to make the difference here. I'm also swayed by how the Spurs defense didn't fall apart two years ago after Kawhi quit, but HAS fallen apart this year now that Danny is gone.

[penbeast0]

Thank you for the Danny Green education; I may have been underestimating him for a long time.

[Gibson22]

Dumars 4 (electricmayhem, mddonnelly1989, samurai, luigi)
Danny Green 3 (trex, drpositivity, cecilthesheep)
Don Chaney 2(penbeast, lebron)
Thabo Sefolosha 1 (iggymcfrack)
Doug Christie 1 (BAMBA5)

5 minutes to go