This roster is butt

[Illmatic12]

Yeah, some of the lockerrom issues started to come out in the offseason with him/Gortat.
Trading Gortat may have actually made the chemistry appear worse - when in reality when the Wizards were winning, we tended to overlook it more. https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/06/29/report-john-walls-lazy-defense-at-center-of-squabble-with-marcin-gortat/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

There were obviously some issues with Gortat, but I don't know about the veracity of that particular report. We all know Stephen A has a tendency to make things up to add spice

A source close to the situation in Washington reached out to The Sports Capitol to refute Smith’s dramatic cursed-out claims.

“It’s all made up. Nobody from the locker room speaks to Stephen A. Smith. Not fans, especially Gortat. Even though Gortat and Wall haven’t been great friends, they never had that kind of situation at the meeting. After the trade, everybody moved on – and then this story came out. It’s just made up,” the source said.

https://thesportscapitol.com/2018/08/08/espn-report-overhyped-wall-gortat-feud-yet-wizards-locker-room-dynamics-remain-center-stage/

I think Morris is close to Smith. After the Wizards won a playoff game, and slapped Smith on the butt. Either way, we have the public twitter spat of Wall and him going on air saying that he is spoon feeding Gortat.

I mean yeah , obviously there was some sort of disagreement. Just saying that we should t give credence to Stephen As overdramatic ramblings and ravings . I’ve never heard him cited as a legitimate source for anything on the Wizards so where would this come from

SAS just wanted to hype it up , probably a slow news week or something so he came up with a dramatic story

[DCZards]

Right now, the most productive player on this team, the guy producing by far the best numbers -- though in too few minutes to count on those numbers continuing -- is Troy Brown Jr.

Brown should be starting at the 3 w/ Porter at the 4. Austin Rivers & Jeff Green should basically never get off the bench. Morris should held to minimum minutes until he starts to play better on a regular basis. Satorasky should absorb as many minutes as he can stand -- back up both guard spots. Oubre has been bad but not as bad as Morris & not even close to as bad as Green/Rivers.

I'm sure Brown wouldn't stay the most productive player on our team, but it is completely inconceivable that he would be as bad as Austin Rivers.

I agree with you PIF...to a certain degree. Given the current sorry state of the Zards and the mediocre play of its bench, it makes perfect sense to give the rook (Brown) more burn. I'm not on board with the idea of starting Troy Jr., and I don't give much credence to the small sample size of stats he's put up in garbage time against the opponents bench, but I do believe that his skillset, especially his passing and high bball IQ, makes it likely that giving Brown more PT would help the team more than hurt it.

[barelyawake]

SAS is a suck up of Jordan’s. As a result, he’s always been down on Wall. He, and the rest of the jordan sucking media, have been the problem. They began the media war against Wall, for which Wall has always been blamed.

Obviously, Rivers and Morris ought to be packaged for a productive player with leadership skills, which also allows Brown and Sato more playing time with Wall (allows Wall to focus deeper on defense). And allows Beal to get more minutes with the second unit as the top dog.

Becky, Tristan, more Sato, more Brown, more rebounding, blocks and fast breaks to alleys (via Howard and Tristan). There’s your cure...

[payitforward]

John Walls jump shot and 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons. Id definitely say he's regressing.

It's really difficult to know what to say when people post BS like this.

John Wall's career 2 pt. % = 45.6%.
All 3 of his first years he was below that. Since then, the curve has gone consistently up with one exception -- last year, an injury year for John. Above all, note that:
Two years ago, in his best year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 48%
This year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 53.4%

So far this year, John is 14-49 on 3 point attempts. That is below his career average of 32.6%. If he'd made two more of his attempts, he'd be at his career average. Last year, btw, he was at 37.1% -- his best year ever shooting the 3.

So,

a) "John Wall's jump shot... has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is obviously untrue. A quick look makes that obvious. I guess you didn't bother to take that quick look, right?

b) "John Wall's... 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is also obviously untrue. Again, a quick look makes that obvious. & again, I guess you didn't take that quick look, right?

Here are some actual facts:

1. John Wall had his best season as an NBA player 2 years ago.
2. Last year John Wall was injured, played only 1400 minutes, & had a down year.
3. This year, after something of a slow start, John Wall is playing at a level close to his best year two years ago.

We are 2-8. We are down over 10 points a game to the rest of the league. Neither of these facts is in any way a result of John Wall's play.

In fact, about 90% of our problems can be attributed to the fact that Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris, Ian Mahinmi, Austin Rivers & Jeff Green -- who have combined to play just under 1100 of our 2400 minutes so far -- are playing horribly.

The other 10% of our problems come from Beal & Porter who, in a combined 610 minutes, are playing below their productivity of the last couple of years.

4 guys -- Brown, Howard, Satoransky & Wall -- have played well. They've been on the floor for a combined 588 minutes.

[nate33]

This is an interesting article:

Read on Twitter

The TL;DR version is that the Wizards have been unlucky in both their percentage of open 3's made, and in the percentage of open 3's made by the opposition. By "open 3's", I'm talking about 3-point attempts taken while nobody else is within 6 feet.

The Wizards defense ranks 17th in open 3's allowed, about average. However, their opponents rank 2nd best in open 3's shooting percentage, hitting a whopping 45.6%. Meanwhile, the Wizards offense ranks 6th best at creating wide open 3's, but they rank 27th in open 3's shooting percentage, hitting just 32.4%.

These numbers are significant deviations from norms. The league shoots about 39% on open 3's; and last year, the Wizards shot 40.3% on open 3's, 7th best in the league.

A typical NBA team gets about 15 wide open looks from 3 per game. So our opponents are effectively scoring an additional 3 points per game just by shooting way better than average when wide open. Likewise, the Wizards are missing out on another 3 points per game just by shooting very poorly when wide open. That's a 6-point swing every night!

[nate33]

John Walls jump shot and 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons. Id definitely say he's regressing.

It's really difficult to know what to say when people post BS like this.

John Wall's career 2 pt. % = 45.6%.
All 3 of his first years he was below that. Since then, the curve has gone consistently up with one exception -- last year, an injury year for John. Above all, note that:
Two years ago, in his best year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 48%
This year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 53.4%

So far this year, John is 14-49 on 3 point attempts. That is below his career average of 32.6%. If he'd made two more of his attempts, he'd be at his career average. Last year, btw, he was at 37.1% -- his best year ever shooting the 3.

So,

a) "John Wall's jump shot... has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is obviously untrue. A quick look makes that obvious. I guess you didn't bother to take that quick look, right?

b) "John Wall's... 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is also obviously untrue. Again, a quick look makes that obvious. & again, I guess you didn't take that quick look, right?

Here are some actual facts:

1. John Wall had his best season as an NBA player 2 years ago.
2. Last year John Wall was injured, played only 1400 minutes, & had a down year.
3. This year, after something of a slow start, John Wall is playing at a level close to his best year two years ago.

We are 2-8. We are down over 10 points a game to the rest of the league. Neither of these facts is in any way a result of John Wall's play.

In fact, about 90% of our problems can be attributed to the fact that Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris, Ian Mahinmi, Austin Rivers & Jeff Green -- who have combined to play just under 1100 of our 2400 minutes so far -- are playing horribly.

The other 10% of our problems come from Beal & Porter who, in a combined 610 minutes, are playing below their productivity of the last couple of years.

4 guys -- Brown, Howard, Satoransky & Wall -- have played well. They've been on the floor for a combined 588 minutes.

Wall is actually shooting quite well from midrange this year:

[pcbothwel]

John Walls jump shot and 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons. Id definitely say he's regressing.

It's really difficult to know what to say when people post BS like this.

John Wall's career 2 pt. % = 45.6%.
All 3 of his first years he was below that. Since then, the curve has gone consistently up with one exception -- last year, an injury year for John. Above all, note that:
Two years ago, in his best year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 48%
This year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 53.4%

So far this year, John is 14-49 on 3 point attempts. That is below his career average of 32.6%. If he'd made two more of his attempts, he'd be at his career average. Last year, btw, he was at 37.1% -- his best year ever shooting the 3.

So,

a) "John Wall's jump shot... has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is obviously untrue. A quick look makes that obvious. I guess you didn't bother to take that quick look, right?

b) "John Wall's... 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is also obviously untrue. Again, a quick look makes that obvious. & again, I guess you didn't take that quick look, right?

Here are some actual facts:

1. John Wall had his best season as an NBA player 2 years ago.
2. Last year John Wall was injured, played only 1400 minutes, & had a down year.
3. This year, after something of a slow start, John Wall is playing at a level close to his best year two years ago.

We are 2-8. We are down over 10 points a game to the rest of the league. Neither of these facts is in any way a result of John Wall's play.

In fact, about 90% of our problems can be attributed to the fact that Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris, Ian Mahinmi, Austin Rivers & Jeff Green -- who have combined to play just under 1100 of our 2400 minutes so far -- are playing horribly.

The other 10% of our problems come from Beal & Porter who, in a combined 610 minutes, are playing below their productivity of the last couple of years.

4 guys -- Brown, Howard, Satoransky & Wall -- have played well. They've been on the floor for a combined 588 minutes.

Wall is actually shooting quite well from midrange this year:

Agreed...again, DO NOT SELL LOW ON WALL.
Small Sample Size can really skew an evaluation. You need to take precedent/large sample size, trends, and eye test into account.
Large Sample size/trends shows an average scorer that has been improving slightly over the last few years.
The eye test shows him to be in the midst of transitioning from out-quickening everyone to a more "Man stregnth" game at the basket (See Lebron, Kidd, Harden)...

Do not sell out our big 3, especially Wall and Otto. If someone wants to give us a ridiculous package for Beal... Fine, Im all ears.

Otherwise, shop Kieff and Oubre... good start...

Kieff, Oubre, and Mahinmi to NOP for Wes Johnson, Hill, Diallo, 2019 1st....

- Save 8M against cap and puts us in position to dump Smith at deadline for the other 1.5M we need to get under tax.
- Allows us to let our core player through the slow start while hedging bets with salary cut and 2019 1st.
- NOP gets better and young prospect in Oubre while staying under tax.

[Wizfanman]

John Walls jump shot and 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons. Id definitely say he's regressing.

It's really difficult to know what to say when people post BS like this.

John Wall's career 2 pt. % = 45.6%.
All 3 of his first years he was below that. Since then, the curve has gone consistently up with one exception -- last year, an injury year for John. Above all, note that:
Two years ago, in his best year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 48%
This year, John Wall's 2 pt. % = 53.4%

So far this year, John is 14-49 on 3 point attempts. That is below his career average of 32.6%. If he'd made two more of his attempts, he'd be at his career average. Last year, btw, he was at 37.1% -- his best year ever shooting the 3.

So,

a) "John Wall's jump shot... has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is obviously untrue. A quick look makes that obvious. I guess you didn't bother to take that quick look, right?

b) "John Wall's... 3pt shot has consistently gotten worse over the past couple of seasons" is also obviously untrue. Again, a quick look makes that obvious. & again, I guess you didn't take that quick look, right?

Here are some actual facts:

1. John Wall had his best season as an NBA player 2 years ago.
2. Last year John Wall was injured, played only 1400 minutes, & had a down year.
3. This year, after something of a slow start, John Wall is playing at a level close to his best year two years ago.

We are 2-8. We are down over 10 points a game to the rest of the league. Neither of these facts is in any way a result of John Wall's play.

In fact, about 90% of our problems can be attributed to the fact that Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris, Ian Mahinmi, Austin Rivers & Jeff Green -- who have combined to play just under 1100 of our 2400 minutes so far -- are playing horribly.

The other 10% of our problems come from Beal & Porter who, in a combined 610 minutes, are playing below their productivity of the last couple of years.

4 guys -- Brown, Howard, Satoransky & Wall -- have played well. They've been on the floor for a combined 588 minutes.

Bla...Numbers lie, I didnt have to check his stats to see his shot has gotten worse/stayed the same over the past couple of seasons. A simple eye test is sufficient. Wall should shoot a lot less unless he's driving the lane for a layup. Not only has his shot not improved but it appears he's not as passionate about the game than he was. I hope Im wrong.

[nate33]

Bla...I didnt have to check his stats to see his shot has gotten worse/stayed the same over the past couple of seasons. A simple eye test is sufficient. Wall should shoot a lot less unless he's driving the lane for a layup.

Sigh.

He IS shooting a lot less. His long 2's have plummeted from 25.3% of his shots last year to just 10.2% (a career low by a country mile) His shots at the rim have skyrocketed from 31.0% last year to 39.5% this year. Wall's free throw rate is the best it's been in 6 years.

The only thing Wall has struggled with is his 3-point shooting, and most of that was due to a horrific start over the first 6 games.

[Wizfanman]

Bla...I didnt have to check his stats to see his shot has gotten worse/stayed the same over the past couple of seasons. A simple eye test is sufficient. Wall should shoot a lot less unless he's driving the lane for a layup.

Sigh.

He IS shooting a lot less. His long 2's have plummeted from 25.3% of his shots last year to just 10.2% (a career low by a country mile) His shots at the rim have skyrocketed from 31.0% last year to 39.5% this year. Wall's free throw rate is the best it's been in 6 years.

The only thing Wall has struggled with is his 3-point shooting, and most of that was due to a horrific start over the first 6 games.

If thats the case, he should continue taking that shot selection. I cringe everytime he takes a jumper.

[I_Like_Dirt]

If thats the case, he should continue taking that shot selection. I cringe everytime he takes a jumper.

Temporarily, sure, but easier said than done in terms of overnight corrections. And beyond that, Wall absolutely needs to develop a jumper, not from everywhere on the floor but from certain spots on the floor. He's going to need it as he ages.

That's the thing that is sort of missed in all of this, though. The Wizards are playing at a blistering pace. The league as a whole is playing way faster this season and the Wizards are 7th in pace in the new faster league while they were 18th in pace in the slower league last season. Pushing the pace actually helps Wall's shot selection - it's just that his 3s aren't falling, and I'm not sure we can tell if that's just noise or a function of pace or both at this point.

Pushing the pace doesn't help the rest of the roster, though, and that hurts Wall because a lot of his game is predicated on his being able to help his teammates perform better. The Wizards have a fast, athletic PG who is one of the best in the league at seeing the assist. They need shooters and younger players who can run with him. Instead, they have a rather old roster and they have even fewer shooters than they have young players - Beal is a shooter even if he isn't Klay, and Porter is sort of a shooter but needs to be selective and there is basically nobody else unless you count Jason Smith, at which point you've just counted Jason Smith and deserve to be laughed at.

The team is probably better suited to slowing things down a bit. It's a woefully mismatched patchwork of a roster that Ernie has put together, though.

[Jamaaliver]

Abridged article from The Athletic:

Wizards could be one of the few losing teams to pay the NBA luxury tax



The​ Wizards are​ in​ danger​ of diving​ to a place​ they’ve never​ visited.

They’ve slogged​ through​ uncompetitive​ seasons in their history.​ But​ if​​ the slow start persists for the full year, it will be the first time they’ve matched misfortune with such high costs. Not many other groups in NBA history will have done so to this degree, either.

Washington has won two straight but still sits at just 4-9. It paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last year, owing $7 million at the end of the season. This season, the team is about $9 million over the luxury tax line, which puts it on track for a $14.6 million payment. Tax totals don’t get collected until the NBA’s fiscal year concludes at the end of June, so the Wizards have plenty of time to shave dollars or even get under the tax threshold.

For now, though, they’re working toward a pricey bill. Only 34 teams in history have paid at least $14.6 million in tax. And usually, money ties to success. Twenty-six of those had winning records; 22 won 50-plus games; 12 won more than 55; nine went to the Finals; four won the title.

...for now, the Wizards are pacing to join basketball history’s fistful of fiscal disappointments.

[nate33]

Right now, the most productive player on this team, the guy producing by far the best numbers -- though in too few minutes to count on those numbers continuing -- is Troy Brown Jr.

Brown should be starting at the 3 w/ Porter at the 4. Austin Rivers & Jeff Green should basically never get off the bench. Morris should held to minimum minutes until he starts to play better on a regular basis. Satorasky should absorb as many minutes as he can stand -- back up both guard spots. Oubre has been bad but not as bad as Morris & not even close to as bad as Green/Rivers.

I'm sure Brown wouldn't stay the most productive player on our team, but it is completely inconceivable that he would be as bad as Austin Rivers.

I agree with you PIF...to a certain degree. Given the current sorry state of the Zards and the mediocre play of its bench, it makes perfect sense to give the rook (Brown) more burn. I'm not on board with the idea of starting Troy Jr., and I don't give much credence to the small sample size of stats he's put up in garbage time against the opponents bench, but I do believe that his skillset, especially his passing and high bball IQ, makes it likely that giving Brown more PT would help the team more than hurt it.

Yes. His numbers are almost completely irrelevant because they've been in garbage time. Also, one can't ignore that individual numbers don't necessarily translate into team success. Brown's shooting is horrific. Teams that get a scouting report on him will back off and play help defense all night, making life miserable for everyone else.

I'd be perfectly fine with trying to get him a little more burn in the regular rotation. But I'm not expecting miracles. I figure he can take some of Rivers' minutes without hurting the team. Whatever we lose due to his poorer shooting he'll make up by being so much better than Rivers at rebounding, passing, and defensive versatility.

[NatP4]

It shouldn’t even be a debate. Troy Brown should be playing close to 20 minutes a night. Austin Rivers shouldn’t even be on a NBA roster. Satoransky and Brown Jr should be taking up ALL of the backup minutes at the 1-3. Oubre should be starting over Morris. Green and Mahinmi should be the backup 4&5.

I don’t see what is so complicated about any of this.

Playing Otto Porter 20 minutes and playing Morris 40 is a complete joke.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Yes. His numbers are almost completely irrelevant because they've been in garbage time. Also, one can't ignore that individual numbers don't necessarily translate into team success. Brown's shooting is horrific. Teams that get a scouting report on him will back off and play help defense all night, making life miserable for everyone else.

I'd be perfectly fine with trying to get him a little more burn in the regular rotation. But I'm not expecting miracles. I figure he can take some of Rivers' minutes without hurting the team. Whatever we lose due to his poorer shooting he'll make up by being so much better than Rivers at rebounding, passing, and defensive versatility.

Yeah, I don't think we can translate numbers from that small of a sample size, either, to say nothing of role/garbage time. That said, some of the points you make to wide open 3s has to do with the Wizards complete lack of actual good shooters. Porter and Sato can hit 3s but to hit them at a good rate they need to be incredibly selective in doing so. Give them even a moment's pause, open or not, and they're going to hesitate and pass it off. If they were forced to take more of the 3s they were uncomfortable in taking their %s would tank. Green, Rivers, Morris and Oubre can hit 3s but they're more of a last resort type of thing than something those guys are actually good at by NBA standards. We all know Wall isn't a good shooter. The team could play Jason Smith more but I hope not. I'm not sure how bad Brown actually is but I think you're jumping the gun to suggest it would be way worse than what we're seeing from the likes of Rivers and Oubre from 3. I don't mind being patient, though. The Wizards have time with Brown. It isn't a rush.

For opposing teams, it very much is making sure they have Beal covered and then quick rotations for everyone else and the Wizards become a team that shoots a lot of 3s but doesn't make them. The team has a lot of guys who shoot a lot but don't make them at even an average rate. That's a problem. They desperately needs more shooters - preferably shooters who can make them in transition or off the dribble as well as spotting up. Everyone is focused on finding athletic bigs to run with Wall but it's the transition 3s that the Wizards are really missing. Well, that and defense.