John Wall Appreciation Thread - Part III

[Shoe]

I am not mad at John Wall

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Yeah I didn't mean that to anyone who criticizes him, see the edit. I like Wall more than most and don't think he can or will be traded, so the Wizards need to develop a team around him that works. I believe John Wall will excel if he doesn't have the pressure on him to be the best player - even if it means trading our 2nd(maybe 1st) and 3rd best player.

[nate33]

While arguing about John Wall on another thread, I actually took a closer look at his stats so far, and there is a lot to be encouraged about.

Yes, his overall ORtg and TS% are hovering around career lows (103 and .498 respectively) but that's almost exclusively due to the abysmal shooting from 3-point range. He has hit just 3 of 25 3-pointers for a 3P% of just 12%. Other than that, he actually looks great.

First of all, he is getting to the rim at will. His percentage of shots at the rim has increased from 31% last year to a whopping 45% this year! I'm assuming some of that has to do with playing 5-out, but it's pretty obvious when you watch that whenever there's a switch, he can blow past the mismatch at will. And as an extra benefit from all this penetration, his FTr (FTA's per FG attempt) is way up from his career average of 35% to 48%! He is 2nd in the league (behind De'Aaron Fox) among non-centers is FT rate. His turnovers are way down too. His career TOV% is 17.3 but this year it's a career low (by a lot) 12.6.

Wall's only real weakness this year has been the uncharacteristically low 3P%. If he shot his career average 3P% this year, his overall TS% would be a career high 57%. If we assume he didn't break his jumper in the offseason and he regresses to his mean 3P%, he is likely to have his career best year, by a lot!

A snapshot of Wall's shot selection through 6 games this season:

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I am not mad at John Wall

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Yeah I didn't mean that to anyone who criticizes him, see the edit. I like Wall more than most and don't think he can or will be traded, so the Wizards need to develop a team around him that works. I believe John Wall will excel if he doesn't have the pressure on him to be the best player - even if it means trading our 2nd(maybe 1st) and 3rd best player.

He's a lot like Nick Young and less mature Javale McGee.

Limited by lack of insight, hubris and inability to genuinely adapt to team concepts in seamless ways.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

While arguing about John Wall on another thread, I actually took a closer look at his stats so far, and there is a lot to be encouraged about.

Yes, his overall ORtg and TS% are hovering around career lows (103 and .498 respectively) but that's almost exclusively due to the abysmal shooting from 3-point range. He has hit just 3 of 25 3-pointers for a 3P% of just 12%. Other than that, he actually looks great.

First of all, he is getting to the rim at will. His percentage of shots at the rim has increased from 31% last year to a whopping 45% this year! I'm assuming some of that has to do with playing 5-out, but it's pretty obvious when you watch that whenever there's a switch, he can blow past the mismatch at will. And as an extra benefit from all this penetration, his FTr (FTA's per FG attempt) is way up from his career average of 35% to 48%! He is 2nd in the league (behind De'Aaron Fox) among non-centers is FT rate. His turnovers are way down too. His career TOV% is 17.3 but this year it's a career low (by a lot) 12.6.

Wall's only real weakness this year has been the uncharacteristically low 3P%. If he shot his career average 3P% this year, his overall TS% would be a career high 57%. If we assume he didn't break his jumper in the offseason and he regresses to his mean 3P%, he is likely to have his career best year, by a lot!

A snapshot of Wall's shot selection through 6 games this season:

WALL IS A HOF PLAYER who is in dire need of a HOF Coach to maximize his ability.

Get John the hell out of DC ASAP.

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[Shanghai Kid]

Nate mentioned it above, but there is some positive in Walls numbers so far. He's definetly scoring efficiently from 2 point range. Maybe last night will get his 3-point going?

[I_Like_Dirt]

While arguing about John Wall on another thread, I actually took a closer look at his stats so far, and there is a lot to be encouraged about.

Yes, his overall ORtg and TS% are hovering around career lows (103 and .498 respectively) but that's almost exclusively due to the abysmal shooting from 3-point range. He has hit just 3 of 25 3-pointers for a 3P% of just 12%. Other than that, he actually looks great.

First of all, he is getting to the rim at will. His percentage of shots at the rim has increased from 31% last year to a whopping 45% this year! I'm assuming some of that has to do with playing 5-out, but it's pretty obvious when you watch that whenever there's a switch, he can blow past the mismatch at will. And as an extra benefit from all this penetration, his FTr (FTA's per FG attempt) is way up from his career average of 35% to 48%! He is 2nd in the league (behind De'Aaron Fox) among non-centers is FT rate. His turnovers are way down too. His career TOV% is 17.3 but this year it's a career low (by a lot) 12.6.

Wall's only real weakness this year has been the uncharacteristically low 3P%. If he shot his career average 3P% this year, his overall TS% would be a career high 57%. If we assume he didn't break his jumper in the offseason and he regresses to his mean 3P%, he is likely to have his career best year, by a lot!

It's the increased pace. There are more transition opportunities and that helps him score in the paint. It's also changed the kind of 3s he gets in-game a bit and I wouldn't be surprised to find out his lower % has something to do with that, though it might also be just statistical noise in a small sample size plain and simple. If ever there was a player who would benefit from doing what Kyle Lowry did and learning to hit the pull-up 3 on the fast break, it's John Wall. He would be absolutely unstoppable.

[nate33]

I've been supporting Wall so far this season, but I came across this horrifying stat at BulletsForever today:

As the pace has gone up around the league, touch time is down for all the league’s best players, so Wall’s downward trend is not surprising. If the Wizards want to keep with the times, they have to get into quicker actions which means there’s less time for Wall to prod and probe than before.

The problem is, all of Wall’s offensive strengths come with the ball in his hands and all his weaknesses come out when it isn’t. He’s 5-of-24 on catch-and-shoot opportunities this season and he hasn’t registered any points off cuts this season (he didn’t register any last season either).

Wait. What? He didn't register A SINGLE POINT from an off-the-ball cut last year? Here it is at NBA.com/stats:



1410 minutes. 0 points from off-the-ball cuts!

He had a total of 4 points off of off-the-ball cuts in 2836 minutes 2 years ago.

[Dark Faze]

I've been supporting Wall so far this season, but I came across this horrifying stat at BulletsForever today:

As the pace has gone up around the league, touch time is down for all the league’s best players, so Wall’s downward trend is not surprising. If the Wizards want to keep with the times, they have to get into quicker actions which means there’s less time for Wall to prod and probe than before.

The problem is, all of Wall’s offensive strengths come with the ball in his hands and all his weaknesses come out when it isn’t. He’s 5-of-24 on catch-and-shoot opportunities this season and he hasn’t registered any points off cuts this season (he didn’t register any last season either).

Wait. What? He didn't register A SINGLE POINT from an off-the-ball cut last year? Here it is at NBA.com/stats:



1410 minutes. 0 points from off-the-ball cuts!

He had a total of 4 points off of off-the-ball cuts in 2836 minutes 2 years ago.

That's such a horrific failure not just on Wall, or even just Brooks, but virtually everyone with any kind of tenure in this organization.

[WizarDynasty]

sorrydon't see stat that post 5 out 24 catch and shoot. Also don't see stat for zero points off cuts. Can you post a screen shot of your sources. Or at least highlight it. Query we don't have skilled post passers usually you need a post player to force a double team. Good info. Or drawn up play with walls man being screened off. BROOKS. or wall doesn't have a coaches mind and cant design elite plays each night at his dinner table. He feels that's management job to design plays. In walls mind he doesn't own the playbook, Leonsis and grunfeld do. if they are happy why should change the system.
An allstar like Howard is going to immediately see the flaws but why should he grunt. he isn't invested I. DC LIKE WALL AND BEAL.
Hope Howard becomes a volume scorer here andextend the career of wall and b eal.
Give howard 20 shots a game and force Brooks to design elite spurs playbook and earn his salary.

[payitforward]

With the Wizards at 2-8, it's a good time to ask how John Wall is playing this year? Is his play part of the reason we suck?

The short answer is no, not at all. In fact, he's playing quite well. Almost as well as in his peak year of 2016-17. The analysis below is adapted from another thread, but it seems to fit even better here.

Rebounding: John is getting the same number of offensive boards as he did in 2016-17. His defensive rebounds are down. But...

Turnovers/Steals: John's turnovers are at his career high -- as they also were in 2016-17, btw. But, his steals are 25% above what they were in 2016-17. Overall, the extra steals make up nicely for the drop in defensive boards. Moreover, John is blocking about a half shot more per 40 minutes than in 2016-17. IOW, overall, in all the above areas John Wall is actually playing a little better than in 2016-17, his best year ever.

What about scoring? Although his 3pt. % is low, John's 2pt. % is extremely high. The result is that his TS% is the best it's ever been. Better than 2016-17, his best year. He's scoring @.94 fewer points per 40 minutes, but he's using 1 less position to do it. That's excellent. So, in scoring too, John's game is playing at a higher level than his best year -- at a higher level than ever!

The only fly in the ointment is assists: per 40 minutes, is registering almost 3.2 fewer assists than he did in 2016-17.

Still, even with a drop in assists, the key point is that, overall, John Wall is playing extremely well. His play is not a factor in the team's poor results so far this year. In fact, given that the first @100 minutes of his 350 minutes so far this season were a little ragged, it really looks like he might equal or even exceed his best year -- in everything, at least, except assists.

Why are his assists down? In part b/c made FGs are down (itself caused in large part by how many 3's we take). In part b/c Gortat is gone (John's peak assist years were all the years Marcin was a Wizard). In part b/c Morris & Porter are shooting a lower FG% this year (likely to return to mean). In part b/c Green & Rivers are poor shooters (not as likely to change). For the rest... I don't know & won't take the time to figure it out.

[Shanghai Kid]

The media is really pushing the narrative that Wall has regressed, is out of shape, and doesn't care. But the numbers don't show that. Its hard to believe he would be at a career high in TS%, FT attempts per game, and 2.5 spg per game if he was mailing it in.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

John is definitely not the reason why this team sucks. Things have just become stagnant and the team needs a major shakeup.
Continuity is only worthwhile when there is a clear direction and improvement. This team has gotten worse the last couple of years.
John is in his prime and deserves to be competing for a championship or making deep playoff runs. This team on the other hand, desperately needs to do a quick one year rebuild - with a new GM - and this is why I'm all in favor of trading John, tanking this year for a top-5 pick and add a new core player to Brad, Otto and Brown.

[will]

Wiz need a shakeup. It just ain't gonna work with Dougie Wall and Beal.

[CobraCommander]

Wall the scapegoat?

People mad at him because team 2-8...trade him...but only if afterwards the team is in a better position to win a ring...otherwise what’s the point? In the era of golden State everyone should be asking...if this doesn’t get us in position to beat the GSW...what’s the point. For wiz to do that...its gonna take a lot more than trading wall...cause he isn’t the reason they can or can’t beat the GSW.

Btw...I still like wall and will be a fan of his even if he leaves...I hope he stays and gets his game back on track

[CobraCommander]

The media is really pushing the narrative that Wall has regressed, is out of shape, and doesn't care. But the numbers don't show that. Its hard to believe he would be at a career high in TS%, FT attempts per game, and 2.5 spg per game if he was mailing it in.

Stop...its 3 steals...but who’s counting

[Illmatic12]

The media is really pushing the narrative that Wall has regressed, is out of shape, and doesn't care. But the numbers don't show that. Its hard to believe he would be at a career high in TS%, FT attempts per game, and 2.5 spg per game if he was mailing it in.

John is actually on pace to be better than his All-NBA season, at least offensively. It won't matter if they don't start winning though (and soon)

[pcbothwel]

The media is really pushing the narrative that Wall has regressed, is out of shape, and doesn't care. But the numbers don't show that. Its hard to believe he would be at a career high in TS%, FT attempts per game, and 2.5 spg per game if he was mailing it in.

John is actually on pace to be better than his All-NBA season, at least offensively. It won't matter if they don't start winning though (and soon)

The out of shape thing REALLY pisses me off. You can argue he pulled a Lebron circa 2011 and got too bulky, but hes not F'n Fat or anything. SAS sounded like an idiot there.

Im sticking with my prognostication... Wall has a career year this year.
I think his 3 is starting to fall and will easily settle in around 35-36%
He is finishing better at the rim
His shot selection has improved
Assist will go up as Otto/Beal/Morris/Oubre hit closer to their career average
Defense looks improved... At least Average

People hate on his contract so much... He has a TS of 55% for cryin out loud

CP3: 33 y/o owed the same amount as Wall with a TS of 49%
Westbrook: 30 y/o owed same amount with a TS of 52%
Hayward: Turning 29 and owed 100M over the next 3 years... Looks to be unplayable with a TS of 49%
Kevin Love: 30 y/o Owed 145M over the next 5 years .... Falling apart and looked terrible before getting hurt for 2 months
Wiggins: Owed 146M over 5 years and appears to be one of the worst starting wings in basketball. No need to list his abysmal TS% when he is bad AT EVERYTHING on the basketball court.
Seriously, If you offered my Wiggins on his contract or Oubre for the same... I take Oubre, zero question.


I take Wall and his contract over everyone above except for maybe Westbrook.

[Shanghai Kid]

Wall is currently 9th amongst PGs in RPM and 26th in the league in RPM wins. He's almost doubling his RPM from last season.

[pcbothwel]

Wall is currently 9th amongst PGs in RPM and 26th in the league in RPM wins. He's almost doubling his RPM from last season.

Again, the leadership concerns are real... but statistically he looks great. Once Otto, Oubre, and Beal revert back I think we'll see an even bigger uptick. Dwight and Big Bryant as well.

[AFM]

Just curious who thinks Wall and/or Beal is better than Arenas?