2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

Westbrook/Schroder has been a bad pairing. The rest doesn't seem reasonable given sample size. Especially when yesterday just you argued the schedule was weak sans Westbrook.

this is why i posted pp100 allowed relative to opponent average pp100. this controls for opponent quality to some extent.

the defensive discrepancy between westbrook on / available and off / unavailable in this data is reconciled when you observe the minutes he shares with schroder v. all other minutes he plays. removing those and everything is within the limits of normal variance.

we'll see what the future holds. my opinion is that schroder / westbrook being poor defensively is an expected outcome, but if it is anywhere close to the degree that has been expressed to this point then a better than neutral schroder overall seems unlikely. and major net negative a possibility.

[bondom34]

we'll see what the future holds. my opinion is that schroder / westbrook being poor defensively is an expected outcome, but if it is anywhere close to the degree that has been expressed to this point then a better than neutral schroder overall seems unlikely. and major net negative a possibility.

I don't think I'd disagree with this at all, nor did I expect different. Schroder was one of the worst defenders at PG last year, and moving him down a position won't help. Even working from them both being fairly neutral as PG defenders, moving them down a spot hurts.

[slick_watts]

I don't think I'd disagree with this at all, nor did I expect different. Schroder was one of the worst defenders at PG last year, and moving him down a position won't help. Even working from them both being fairly neutral as PG defenders, moving them down a spot hurts.

the specific responsibilities of wing defenders in our system make this even less tenable to me.

[bondom34]

I don't think I'd disagree with this at all, nor did I expect different. Schroder was one of the worst defenders at PG last year, and moving him down a position won't help. Even working from them both being fairly neutral as PG defenders, moving them down a spot hurts.

the specific responsibilities of wing defenders in our system make this even less tenable to me.

Agreed, and especially a general reliance on length and deflections.

[Pillendreher]

One thing Bobby mentioned over at WTLC is the amount of shot contests.

On a per minute basis, they are indeed 17th in the league. If you account for the amount of opposing 3s per game though, the Thunder are actually 5th:

[CROklahoma]

Isnt it obvious throughout 2-3 past seasons that RW is hugely lacking discipline on D, and ofc our long term numbers are gonna be a little worse than usual starter who can pull out some energy on that end.
Schroeder is great against fast and small guards, with which we usually had huge problems over the past few years.

[Pillendreher]

One thing Bobby mentioned over at WTLC is the amount of shot contests.

On a per minute basis, they are indeed 17th in the league. If you account for the amount of opposing 3s per game though, the Thunder are actually 5th:

Expanded it a little bit:

[1bigfan13]

It could just be recency bias on my part but the last 3 weeks feel like the best stretch of ball I've seen the Thunder play in close to 5 years. I remember back in the "good old days" the Thunder would go on these lengthy stretches of great play where most games would be secured midway thru the 4th qtr. We haven't seen that too much lately until this season. Sure the competition hasn't been great but in recent years we'd struggle for 4 full qtrs to put away bad teams like the Knicks and Cavs. Whereas this year OKC is jumping on those teams early and cruising to easy wins.



Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[nbaguy1]

Problem with that is Schroder hasn't historically been as good a defender as Westbrook. Speaking of defense, Bobby wrote a good piece on the issues with the pick and roll coverage.

https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/11/13/18082624/last-chance-pick-and-roll-defense-thunder

i told you guys pre-season, and it shows in each and every game of this season: schroeder is an excellent defender.

when he whas drafted, the closest comparison to a superstar in my mind would have been gary payton. because he can litterally be a glove on-ball. but in this fast paced era thats not doable all game when also wanting to be effective offensively.

he also has ways to be a irritating help defender, 9/10 helps closing lanes without losing his man and does suprisingly well when guarding in the post on mis matches.

in his first 3 years with ATL he did all this as well. his bad rep comes from the hawks losing al horford and playing dwight howard year(which whas a huge system shock for ATL) and the tanking year. schroeder and millsap had to iso allot after botched budenholzer/san-antonio plays and in the tanking year, he literally had to do it all and it all didnt matter any way.

nba fans are so quick to forget or see context. and in schroeders case that would be fatal if you would make the call.

[alessandrux]

Any (new) information about Westbrooks possible comeback?

[slick_watts]

One thing Bobby mentioned over at WTLC is the amount of shot contests.

On a per minute basis, they are indeed 17th in the league. If you account for the amount of opposing 3s per game though, the Thunder are actually 5th:

Expanded it a little bit:

there looks to be some correlation between % of 3PA contested and defensive efficiency. i don't expect the correlation to be as strong for opponent efg%. i'm thinking the high % of 3PA contested is indicative of some quality that good defenses tend to have. perhaps close out ability or 'switchability'?

i'm not sure. at any rate this is interesting research!

[getrichordie]

Problem with that is Schroder hasn't historically been as good a defender as Westbrook. Speaking of defense, Bobby wrote a good piece on the issues with the pick and roll coverage.

https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/11/13/18082624/last-chance-pick-and-roll-defense-thunder

i told you guys pre-season, and it shows in each and every game of this season: schroeder is an excellent defender.

when he whas drafted, the closest comparison to a superstar in my mind would have been gary payton. because he can litterally be a glove on-ball. but in this fast paced era thats not doable all game when also wanting to be effective offensively.

he also has ways to be a irritating help defender, 9/10 helps closing lanes without losing his man and does suprisingly well when guarding in the post on mis matches.

in his first 3 years with ATL he did all this as well. his bad rep comes from the hawks losing al horford and playing dwight howard year(which whas a huge system shock for ATL) and the tanking year. schroeder and millsap had to iso allot after botched budenholzer/san-antonio plays and in the tanking year, he literally had to do it all and it all didnt matter any way.

nba fans are so quick to forget or see context. and in schroeders case that would be fatal if you would make the call.

Thanks for the insight. This makes a lot of sense. I’ve seen Schroder play live in Atlanta against OKC. If anyone watches him, it’s clear he’s a really solid defender at the 1. Just keep your eyes glued on Schroder when he’s defending and you will see excellent reads. Some bigger 2s are going to give him some trouble, but you would think Westbrook would guard those guys, but that’d be asking for that 2-guard to heat up as Westbrook breaks down on defense more often than you’d like. But Schroder is fairly crafty so maybe you stick him on the 2s and just keep Westbrook on the 1s, but it’s probably more of a matchup-based decision.







Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[hardenASG13]

Problem with that is Schroder hasn't historically been as good a defender as Westbrook. Speaking of defense, Bobby wrote a good piece on the issues with the pick and roll coverage.

https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/11/13/18082624/last-chance-pick-and-roll-defense-thunder

i told you guys pre-season, and it shows in each and every game of this season: schroeder is an excellent defender.

when he whas drafted, the closest comparison to a superstar in my mind would have been gary payton. because he can litterally be a glove on-ball. but in this fast paced era thats not doable all game when also wanting to be effective offensively.

he also has ways to be a irritating help defender, 9/10 helps closing lanes without losing his man and does suprisingly well when guarding in the post on mis matches.

in his first 3 years with ATL he did all this as well. his bad rep comes from the hawks losing al horford and playing dwight howard year(which whas a huge system shock for ATL) and the tanking year. schroeder and millsap had to iso allot after botched budenholzer/san-antonio plays and in the tanking year, he literally had to do it all and it all didnt matter any way.

nba fans are so quick to forget or see context. and in schroeders case that would be fatal if you would make the call.

Most on this board don't see or understand context at all. They just look at his numbers on a tanking hawks team and are convinced he doesn't defend. Some still seem to not like him for some reason, it's crazy.

[getrichordie]

Problem with that is Schroder hasn't historically been as good a defender as Westbrook. Speaking of defense, Bobby wrote a good piece on the issues with the pick and roll coverage.

https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/11/13/18082624/last-chance-pick-and-roll-defense-thunder

i told you guys pre-season, and it shows in each and every game of this season: schroeder is an excellent defender.

when he whas drafted, the closest comparison to a superstar in my mind would have been gary payton. because he can litterally be a glove on-ball. but in this fast paced era thats not doable all game when also wanting to be effective offensively.

he also has ways to be a irritating help defender, 9/10 helps closing lanes without losing his man and does suprisingly well when guarding in the post on mis matches.

in his first 3 years with ATL he did all this as well. his bad rep comes from the hawks losing al horford and playing dwight howard year(which whas a huge system shock for ATL) and the tanking year. schroeder and millsap had to iso allot after botched budenholzer/san-antonio plays and in the tanking year, he literally had to do it all and it all didnt matter any way.

nba fans are so quick to forget or see context. and in schroeders case that would be fatal if you would make the call.

Most on this board don't see or understand context at all. They just look at his numbers on a tanking hawks team and are convinced he doesn't defend. Some still seem to not like him for some reason, it's crazy.

Dude. That doesn’t fit the prevailing thought here on the board, bro. Stop trying to inform others of Schroder’s defense. Context is meaningless. It doesn’t exist. You know we have to perform the annual ritual of hating on the new players brought in. It’s their OKC initiation!


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[hardenASG13]

Wow the subtraction of melo was an even bigger plus than I could've imagined. Thoughts so far.

Adams has improved more offensively this year around the basket. He is still limited, but has become extremely good at what he does do.

Grant has been great as a starter. He looks increasingly confident, and tho some don't understand, potential gets fulfilled when confidence rises. It's important.

Patterson is in better shape. Still unreliable from 3, can't do much else. Solid bench piece tho.

Noel is nice to have, but seems to be a moron. Decent backup C.

Schroeder has been great, what a huge addition. The guy is a top 20-25 pg in the league, off the bench.

Diallo is great for what he is, a massive upgrade over huestis.

I still am not missing Roberson. It's nice having 5 capable offensive players at a time at all times. The D has still been great. This is what I've been talking about, that almost none of you can see. But keep smugly celebrating that he was indeed better than Corey brewer. I was wrong on that.

[ThunderBolt]

i told you guys pre-season, and it shows in each and every game of this season: schroeder is an excellent defender.

when he whas drafted, the closest comparison to a superstar in my mind would have been gary payton. because he can litterally be a glove on-ball. but in this fast paced era thats not doable all game when also wanting to be effective offensively.

he also has ways to be a irritating help defender, 9/10 helps closing lanes without losing his man and does suprisingly well when guarding in the post on mis matches.

in his first 3 years with ATL he did all this as well. his bad rep comes from the hawks losing al horford and playing dwight howard year(which whas a huge system shock for ATL) and the tanking year. schroeder and millsap had to iso allot after botched budenholzer/san-antonio plays and in the tanking year, he literally had to do it all and it all didnt matter any way.

nba fans are so quick to forget or see context. and in schroeders case that would be fatal if you would make the call.

Most on this board don't see or understand context at all. They just look at his numbers on a tanking hawks team and are convinced he doesn't defend. Some still seem to not like him for some reason, it's crazy.

Dude. That doesn’t fit the prevailing thought here on the board, bro. Stop trying to inform others of Schroder’s defense. Context is meaningless. It doesn’t exist.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

You said schroder > Westbrook. You have no room to comment

[getrichordie]

Most on this board don't see or understand context at all. They just look at his numbers on a tanking hawks team and are convinced he doesn't defend. Some still seem to not like him for some reason, it's crazy.

Dude. That doesn’t fit the prevailing thought here on the board, bro. Stop trying to inform others of Schroder’s defense. Context is meaningless. It doesn’t exist.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

You said schroder > Westbrook. You have no room to comment

I did? Either you don’t understand sarcasm or you are taking something I said out of... context. Oh there’s that word again!


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[ThunderBolt]

Patterson is in better shape. Still unreliable from 3, can't do much else. Solid bench piece tho.

Patterson isn’t immune to criticism but he’s shooting 38% from three. That’s the one thing he’s done well.

[getrichordie]

Patterson is in better shape. Still unreliable from 3, can't do much else. Solid bench piece tho.

Patterson isn’t immune to criticism but he’s shooting 38% from three. That’s the one thing he’s done well.

In terms of the looks he’s been getting, he should be shooting higher. But I wouldn’t deem him unreliable from 3.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[hardenASG13]

Patterson is in better shape. Still unreliable from 3, can't do much else. Solid bench piece tho.

Patterson isn’t immune to criticism but he’s shooting 38% from three. That’s the one thing he’s done well.

In terms of the looks he’s been getting, he should be shooting higher. But I wouldn’t deem him unreliable from 3.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

38% while creating none of his own looks isn't great. He's certainly not a big time shooter, enough to warrant him playing over grant who does everything else better (and his 3 ball is coming along)! Great job billy!