2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[polo007]

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TORONTO – There are inherent risks to the enviable challenges of organizational surplus, and the Toronto Blue Jays face an important test with Tuesday’s deadline for the filing of reserve lists, shielding eligible players from the Rule 5 draft.

Right-handed pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy and Yennsy Diaz are the likeliest additions to a 40-man roster currently at 36 players, meaning GM Ross Atkins won’t have the space to protect everyone he’d like to avoid exposing. Recently, he said, “I would be surprised if we didn’t have someone Rule 5’d away from us,” with Jordan Romano, Jon Harris, Forrest Wall, Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, Kevin Vicuna and Max Pentecost also among the eligible group.

No matter who ends up landing a coveted 40-man roster spot, the Blue Jays will have their fingers crossed until Dec. 13, when the Rule 5 draft wraps up the Winter Meetings.

The initial risk, of course, is leaving the wrong player exposed, losing him in the draft and then watching him produce for another club. But mistakes can also subsequently be made in how protected players are prioritized in the farm system.

[Cyrus]

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TORONTO – There are inherent risks to the enviable challenges of organizational surplus, and the Toronto Blue Jays face an important test with Tuesday’s deadline for the filing of reserve lists, shielding eligible players from the Rule 5 draft.

Right-handed pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy and Yennsy Diaz are the likeliest additions to a 40-man roster currently at 36 players, meaning GM Ross Atkins won’t have the space to protect everyone he’d like to avoid exposing. Recently, he said, “I would be surprised if we didn’t have someone Rule 5’d away from us,” with Jordan Romano, Jon Harris, Forrest Wall, Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, Kevin Vicuna and Max Pentecost also among the eligible group.

No matter who ends up landing a coveted 40-man roster spot, the Blue Jays will have their fingers crossed until Dec. 13, when the Rule 5 draft wraps up the Winter Meetings.

The initial risk, of course, is leaving the wrong player exposed, losing him in the draft and then watching him produce for another club. But mistakes can also subsequently be made in how protected players are prioritized in the farm system.

Can a team lose multiple Rule 5 guys? Like if one guy gets selected do you get to protect more?

I would just try to protect as many pitchers as you can, generally, that's who gets snatched up. Teams can't afford to carry like OF or infielder all season long on their 25 man roster.

[Schad]

Can a team lose multiple Rule 5 guys? Like if one guy gets selected do you get to protect more?

I would just try to protect as many pitchers as you can, generally, that's who gets snatched up. Teams can't afford to carry like OF or infielder all season long on their 25 man roster.

The only players protected are those on the 40 man, or without enough time as a professional to qualify. Everyone else is free game, and there's no limit on the number of selections from or by any team (basically, the draft keeps going until every team passes).

Infamously, five of the first six picks of the 2003 Rule 5 draft were selected from the Pirates...the fifth was Jose Bautista:

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2003/12/16/Pirates-lose-five-in-Rule-5-draft/stories/200312160069

[Black Watch]

DFA Pillar, Travis, and Solarte and you're more than halfway to solving the problem.

[Tanner]

Solarte and Leiter are still on the 40 man roster. They can and should be taken off. Barnes is borderline. Wouldn't be shocked if the team has given up on Pompey so he might be gone too.

It's not a big deal. If the Jays don't protect a particular player it will be because they choose not to, not because they can't.

[Skin Blues]

Pillar is projected for about $25M in surplus value over the next 2 seasons. That's an expensive price to pay in order to fix the problem of maybe possibly losing a fringe prospect. Same applies to Travis, to a lesser extent. Solarte is as good as gone already.

[bartron_44]

Imo, from that list they need to find a way to protect Perez, Murphy and Copping. Then Diaz an then Romano. The others I don't really care if we lose.

I want Copping on the 25 man roster in the bullben, not just the 40 man.

Murphy is my dark horse for the rotation and could also be used as back end reliever for a year if does't make it as a starter. He touched triple digits and threw 152+ innings last year over 27 starts.

Hector Perez has the best fastball in our system (Scout grade 65) behind Nate Pearson (scout grade 70) and he averaged 10.4 K's per 9 innings last year (11.2 in NH after the trade). He could step into a bullpen next year very easily.

[polo007]

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Cavan is 23 now. After finishing his third pro season as a promising and versatile infielder in the Toronto farm system, the Blue Jays sent him to the Arizona Fall League – to play the outfield.

“I grew up shagging in the outfield in a big-league park, so it’s not too unfamiliar for me,” he said with a smile during an interview in Arizona near the end of the fall league season.

Biggio was not suggesting that his childhood fly-chasing left him primed for his new assignment. But reacting to balls off the bat in BP back in the day certainly didn’t hurt.

And in Arizona, that was his primary training mode.

“This biggest help is taking live reads in batting practice,” he said. “In the infield, you can take a thousand fungos and that can help a lot, but in the outfield, the most game-like reads are going to be off the bat in batting practice. So live reads have been the most important thing every day to get used to it.”

At the moment, it is unclear what the Jays have in mind for Biggio’s 2019 defensive assignment(s). So far, like his dad, his primary position has been second base. But he has switched positions with relative ease. At New Hampshire, he played 68 games at second, 34 at third, 22 at first, one at shortstop and two in right field.

Which brings to mind the potential of a super-utility role, akin to the likes of Ben Zobrist of the Cubs, Jurickson Profar of the Rangers, Charlie Culberson of the Braves, Brock Holt of the Red Sox and Max Muncy of the Dodgers.

Asked about that, Jays player development director Gil Kim gave an ambiguous answer.

“The priority for Cavan will be to continue to get at-bats at an advanced level and continue to improve as much as he can at second base while at the same time finding ways of developing his versatility,” Kim said.

Then Kim paused, smiled and acknowledged that his summation was a tad fuzzy.

“We don’t know yet,” he said.

The Blue Jays’ brain trust will confer in the offseason, Kim said, then discuss their conclusions with Biggio. Chances are they will continue to play him a lot at second base, with occasional shifts to other spots. One factor will be the primary positions of the other infielders on his team – likely Triple-A Buffalo – and how injuries might dictate defensive assignments.

[Black Watch]

From BP, released yesterday:


1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B
DOB: 3/16/99
Height/Weight: 6’1” / 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2015 out of the Dominican Republic by Toronto for $3,900,000.
Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org), #4 (Overall)
2018 Stats: .336/.414/.564, 6 HR, 0 SB in 30 games at Triple-A Buffalo; .402/.449/.671, 14 HR, 3 SB in 61 games at Double-A New Hampshire

The Report: A scout once told me that 8 reports are just 2 reports, but longer. How much is there to explain? The usual language of baseball scouting is insufficient. Vladito “came back to earth” in Buffalo, which means that the 19-year-old didn’t quite manage to hit [expletive deleted] .400 for a full season in the upper minors. Shruggie face. I spent a soupcon of tortured prose on him already this year. What else is there to say? I shouldn’t be writing this blurb. Vladito should belong to the MLB scribes now; let them consult their muses and thesauruses to try to come up with something novel.

He’s 7 hit/7 power. Well, that might be low. It’s what I can responsibly put down on the page. He’s a below-average third baseman, but playable there for now if you were so inclined. Get his bat into the lineup however you [expletive deleted] want. This is the best prospect in baseball, the best pure bat in the minors. And the only reason we aren’t calling him one of the best pure bats in the majors is we’ve codified a bunch of sabermetric writing by dudes from 2009 who thought they were smarter than Brian Sabean as “good process.” The only good process here is watching Vladito hit majestic dingers on the biggest possible stage. That’s what’s best for the Blue Jays and best for the game.

The Role:

OFP 80—Generational talent with the stick

Likely 70—All-star first baseman

The Risks: Low. Yeah, I know. But it’s low.

Major league ETA: Whenever Mark Shapiro deigns to make a phone call.

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Listen, writing about fantasy prospects makes one prone to hyperbole. Because everyone is always looking for The Next Star (seriously we were getting “who is the next Ronald Acuña?” questions last February), you feel pressure to exaggerate how good or how impactful guys can be. But the reality of the situation is the established elite tier at pretty much every position is considered elite for a reason. There isn’t always an Acuña or a Juan Soto waiting in the wings. Sometimes it’s smarter to preach caution and be realistic, even if it’s less fun. Sometimes.

This is not that time. Vlad’s fantasy ceiling is legitimately as the next Miguel Cabrera. His floor probably looks something like your median Anthony Rizzo year. He’s gonna win you a few championships if you’re lucky enough to have him/don’t suck at roster construction. Let’s party.


2. Bo Bichette, SS
DOB: 3/5/1998
Height/Weight: 6’ / 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft, Lakewood HS (St. Petersburg, FL); signed for $1,100,000.
Previous Ranking(s): #2 (Org), #19 (Overall)
2018 Stats: .288/.345/.456, 11 HR, 32 SB in 130 games at Double-A New Hampshire

The Report: Dante’s kid wasn’t quite the same inferno at the plate this year, but Double-A wasn’t much of a challenge for him either. Bichette combines elite bat speed and hand/eye to produce a laser show only matched by Pink Floyd Night at your local Planetarium. I don’t really buy Bichette’s listed height/weight, as his frame looks smaller than listed, but regardless, the plus raw is legit. The ball jumps off his bat and the power plays foul line to foul line. He has so much bat speed that he can really let the ball eat and drive it the other way, and if he does end up at his listed size, there might be more power coming.

Bichette’s swing is unorthodox, featuring a long load behind his back shoulder with a near armbar and hitch, but he makes it work and tracks pitches well. He can get too aggressive and pull-happy at the plate, but the raw material is certainly here for a plus-or-better major-league hit tool. At shortstop, Bichette grinds it out to get to fringe-average, but he grows on you there. He has good hands and instincts, but the range is a little light and puts pressure on a merely solid-average arm. Everything just feels a half-grade short for the 6, but then you will see him make a plus play and talk yourself into him sticking there for a while. If he slides over to the keystone, he will be an above-average defender there. But really, you’re here for the bat, and there’s all-star upside in the profile if Bichette continues to rake in the majors.

The Role:

OFP 70—All-star shortstop

Likely 60—Plus regular in the middle infield

The Risks: Medium. I believe in the bat here—although it took a little cajoling—but any swing this unorthodox may allow major league pitchers to suss out holes.

Major league ETA: Well, I expect he will be ready by late 2019

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Did you enjoy Xander Bogaerts’ 2018 season? Yes? Good, because that’s the type of upside Bichette brings to the table. It’s tough to say whether Toronto’s absurd … let’s call it “caution” with Vladito means they’ll hold Bichette down too long as well. But regardless of when Bichette gets the call, he’ll be an immediate fantasy factor and potential top-7 fantasy shortstop. He gets lost a bit because he’s not the best dynasty prospect in his own organization (Vladito) or at his position (Tatis Jr.), but Bichette is a no-s*** top-10 fantasy prospect right now in his own right. Get excited.


3. Nate Pearson, RHP
DOB: 8/20/1996
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 245 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 28th overall in the 2017 draft, College of Central Florida (Ocala, FL); signed for $2.4529 million.
Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org)
2018 Stats: 10.80 ERA, 1.95 DRA, 1 ⅔ IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 game at High-A Dunedin

The Report: One of the absolute best arms in the minors. He hits 100 MPH with some frequency as a starter, and was famously up to 103-104 with the fastball for a short burst in this year’s Fall Stars Game. He’s got one of those low-90s sliders that should be a physical impossibility, and a slower curve and change that both flash average-to-plus. It’s not just a starter’s arsenal, it’s a straight-up ace arsenal. The stuff comes packaged in a starter’s frame and a pitching motion that doesn’t scream reliever. If Pearson fully actualizes, he’ll look a lot like another Blue Jays late-first rounder: Noah Syndergaard.

That’s the positive side. The negative side starts with some simple math: 20⅓ of his 42 professional innings were in this year’s Arizona Fall League. As a pro, he’s been unavailable to pitch far more often than he’s been available; before wowing everyone in the AFL, he had a lost 2018 season, with an oblique injury followed by a fractured right forearm from a comebacker in his only regular season start. The delivery isn’t totally clean, with a head whack and a fairly hard landing. The fastball can get kind of flat—Peter Alonso turned around one of those 104s for a monster home run. He is going to need one of those offspeed pitches to jump. He’s thrown less than two innings in full-season ball, so it isn’t like there’s a track record of pro success here… yet.

The Role:

OFP 60—No. 3 starter or first-division closer (think Nathan Eovaldi)

Likely 50—An effective pitcher who has trouble finding a role where he stays on the mound

The Risks: Extreme in both directions. Pearson already had significant reliever and injury risks when he was drafted, and a traumatic injury to his pitching forearm didn’t reduce those. He has a screw in his pitching elbow from surgery during high school. He could go a lot of different ways in 2019, including paths where the above roles look silly in either direction. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: 2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Eovaldi isn’t just a good comp for Pearson’s MLB value; it works for his fantasy value as well. That means some years you could be getting a dominating, strikeout-heavy SP3, while other years you could be signing up for an occupied DL slot. In general fantasy owners root for pitchers to remain starters, but in Pearson’s case, a future as a closer may be most lucrative.


4. Danny Jansen
DOB: 4/15/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 225 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2013 draft, Appleton West HS (Appleton, WI); signed for $100,000.
Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org)
2018 Stats: .247/.347/.432, 3 HR, 0 SB in 31 games for the Toronto Blue Jays; .275/.390/.473, 12 HR, 5 SB in 88 games at Triple-A Buffalo

The Report: Warby Parker would struggle to find a better celebrity endorser than Danny Jansen. Besides having some of the most fashionable specs in pro ball, the new lenses sparked a 2017 breakout that continued throughout 2018. It’s a striking infomercial before and after: from org guy to borderline Top 101 prospect. Jansen has a bit of an unorthodox swing, where he drops his hands by his hip during setup, followed by a minimal load and a slight uppercut plane. His hand-eye is good enough now that he can still cover just about everything. The quality of contact is inconsistent, but hard enough to project average hit and power tools, which would make him one of the better hitting catchers in today’s game. His glove behind the plate has improved to averageish as well. There are no real weaknesses in his defensive profile, but it’s possible he might end up in more of a timeshare if his org prefers a backstop with a plus glove.

The Role:

OFP 60—Above-average, bat-first backstop

Likely 50—Average catcher

The Risks: Low. The balanced profile and 2018 major league performance makes him a fairly safe bet to have a significant major league career.

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I’ve written at length about how trusting catching prospects to make immediate impacts is a poor strategy. It’s through the lense of those lessons learned–and not through any particular fault of Jansen’s–that I’m going to urge caution in projecting big 2019 production. Yes, he’s close to the majors, and yes, the power tool looks real. But Russell Martin is still going to get plenty of playing time, and the learning curve for young catchers is especially deep. Eventually, Jansen can be a top-10 option and routine 20-homer threat at the position. Just don’t confuse his MLB ETA (pretty much right now) with his fantasy impact ETA (2020 or beyond).


5. Kevin Smith, IF
DOB: 7/4/96
Height/Weight: 6’1” / 188 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the fourth round of the 2017 draft, University of Maryland; signed for $405,100.
Previous Ranking(s): NR
2018 Stats: .274/.332/.470, 18 HR, 17 SB in 82 games at High-A Dunedin; .355/.407/.639, 7 HR, 12 SB in 46 games at Low-A Lansing

The Report: If not for Vladito, you could make the case that Smith had the most impressive 2018 season among all Blue Jays farmhands. He put to bed the notion that he was a glove-first guy who lacked an approach at the plate by slashing .302/.358/.528 over two levels. The former Maryland star has quick hands, above-average bat speed, and a swing that gets leverage. It’s a strong enough bat with above-average raw power that will play at any spot in the infield.

Smith is fluid and balanced defensively, with good instincts and adequate arm strength. It’s not flashy but he should stick at short for the foreseeable future. Vladito and Bichette are the future stars of the organization, but Smith is an important cog in the rebuild as well.

The Role:

OFP 55—Above-average regular

Likely 50—Average Regular

The Risks: Medium. He’s yet to face advanced pitching in the upper minors and there is bound to be a learning curve there. He has a broad base of skills, however, and that should carry him to the major leagues. —Nathan Graham

Major league ETA: 2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Smith may be a better IRL prospect than a fantasy one thanks to his defensive profile, but he’s still got plenty of value in our world, too. The hope is that Smith continues to hit as he climbs the MiLB ladder and that we eventually view him somewhat similarly to how we see Luis Urias today. Even if the hit tool falls a bit short of those levels, Smith is a nice grab for those of you in deeper leagues today and could hit the back of the top-101 in 2020 if he keeps performing and has as clear a path to playing time as he does at present.


6. Eric Pardinho, RHP
DOB: 1/5/2001
Height/Weight: 5’10” / 155 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Singed July 2017 out of Brazil by the Toronto Blue Jays; signed for $1,400,000.
Previous Ranking(s): NR
2018 Stats: 2.88 ERA, 3.62 DRA, 50 IP, 37 H, 16 BB, 64 K in 11 games at Rookie-level Bluefield

The Report: Pardinho rose to fame as an interesting curiosity in September 2016, when he was the 15-year-old ace of the Brazilian national team in WBC qualifying. Besides being a fun story, he’s also a legitimate prospect. Pardinho’s signing bonus in the 2017-18 international pool was lower than you might expect for a higher-end J2 with name value, likely because of perceived limited projectability due to his small stature and questions about the level of competition he faced in Brazil. His 2018 pro debut couldn’t have been more splendid, with a dominant age-17 season in the Appalachian League against much older batters (Wander Franco excepted). He’s incredibly advanced for his age, with significantly better command than you’d expect to see out of his age cohort—high school juniors—and the makings of a full four-pitch mix. He’s not a finesse pitcher, either, as he’s already running his fastball into the mid-90s. And he’s so young.

The Role:

OFP 60—No. 3 starter

Likely 45—No. 4/5 starter

The Risks: Extreme. He’s a 17-year-old short righty in rookie ball. He’s here because the stuff profile is so advanced, but he’s still a 17-year-old short righty in rookie ball. He might get hurt, he might not be a starter, etc. Quite a lot happens developmentally to young pitchers between rookie ball in the majors. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: 2023

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Watch list. The top part of your watch list that you fill with players you check in on every 10-or-so days, but still, watch list.


7. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
DOB: 8/30/95
Height/Weight: 6’3” / 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 49th overall in the 2014 draft, Sandlewood HS (Jacksonville, FL); signed for $1,128,800.
Previous Ranking(s): #8 (Org)
2016 Stats: 5.13 ERA, 4.95 DRA, 33 ⅓ IP, 31 H, 21 BB, 42 K in 7 games for the Toronto Blue Jays; 3.90 ERA, 3.19 DRA, 85 ⅓ IP, 76 H, 30 BB, 98 K in 16 games at Triple-A Buffalo; 2.03 ERA, 3.65 DRA, 44 ⅓ IP, 27 H, 20 BB, 52 K in 8 games at Double-A New Hampshire

The Report: The Top 101 version of Reid-Foley showed up more often in 2018, although he remains a frustrating pitching prospect. He’ll show a tick-above-average fastball velocity, but it can take him a bit to ramp up to it. Reid-Foley will cut and run the pitch, but it’s not always effective movement. He still struggles to show even average command with it, as he tends to lose his release point despite relatively simple mechanics.

Both his breaking balls project as average but will flash better. The slider sits in the mid-80s and will flash good tilt, but it’s built to entice grounders rather than swings and misses. The curve comes in around 80 and can bleed into the slider in the low-80s, but Reid-Foley will flash a tight downer version as well. He commands both breakers better than the fastball. His change is used sparingly and can lack deception, but will flash good velo separation and fade. His 2018 major league cameo didn’t really answer the main question with the profile, which is “will he throw enough strikes, or enough quality strikes to turn over a lineup multiple times?” The stuff is more solid-average than plus, so Reid-Foley will need to limit the self-inflicted damage to stick in the back of a rotation over the long haul.

The Role:

OFP 55—no. 3/4 starter

Likely 45—no. 4/5 starter or middle reliever

The Risks: Low. Reid-Foley finally conquered the upper minors and missed bats everywhere. How much further he refines his command will determine the ultimate major league outcome here. I’d bet he’ll always be a little bit frustrating though.

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: If Reid-Foley had even marginally better stuff or marginally better command, it’d be a lot easier to get excited about him. As he stands currently, he’ll bring much more value to the Jays than he will to fantasy owners. He should be owned in TDGX-sized leagues (800-plus players), but he’s a spot starter in shallower formats.


8. Anthony Alford, OF
DOB: 7/20/1994
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, Petal HS (Petal, MS); signed for $750,000.
Previous Ranking(s): #3 (Org), #58 (Top 101)
2018 Stats: .105/.190/.105, 0 HR, 1 SB in 13 games for the Toronto Blue Jays; .240/.312/.344, 5 HR, 17 SB in 105 games at Triple-A Buffalo; .200/.360/.250, 0 HR, 0 SB in 7 games at High-A Dunedin

The Report: It’s been quite a road. The Blue Jays drafted Alford back in 2012 as a multi-sport star planning to play football at Southern Miss, where he became a part-time starter as a true freshman option quarterback. He transferred to Ole Miss to play defensive back after being charged in a campus altercation, and didn’t play much baseball for three seasons until he quit football in the fall of 2014. He quickly re-established himself as a top prospect on the diamond, making the 101 in each of the last three seasons. He has the incredible all-around athletic ability you’d expect of a guy who saw substantial playing time as an FBS true freshman option quarterback.

Alford’s baseball career has been marred by a series of injuries, including a severe concussion, a broken hamate, recurring knee problems, and this year’s entry, a hamstring strain in spring training. With only 430 pro games under his belt, frankly, he just hasn’t played all that much. His hitting performance has been inconsistent, and despite call-ups in each of the last two years, he’s yet to master Triple-A. He hasn’t hit for much game power to date, although we still think he has enough raw to have a shot at average or even above-average power later on. At times the hit tool has looked like a plus, and at times he’s hit in the .230s. His defense is more than good enough for center currently and he can play the corners well too.

The Role:

OFP 55—A perfectly fine starting outfielder

Likely 45—Marginal starter with tweener tendencies or a good fourth outfielder

The Risks: High, especially considering that he’s spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors. He might not hit and he might not be healthy enough. We’re basically giving Alford a pass from his lost 2018 because of his overwhelming athleticism, the history of prior success, and the hamstring injury, but maybe this is what he is now. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2017.

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Fool me three times, shame on you, but fool me four times… There’s an argument to rank Alford in the Top 101 again based on his speed and proximity to the majors, but I’m out. He can’t stay healthy, and I’m not totally convinced he can hit. Will Alford sneak in a few seasons where he swipes 20-plus bases and makes me look dumb? Yep. Will he have even more years where he’s a total fantasy non-factor? Also yep.


9. Jordan Groshans, SS/3B
DOB: 11/10/99
Height/Weight: 6’3” / 178 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 12th overall in the 2018 draft, Magnolia HS (Magnolia, TX); signed for $3,400,000.
Previous Ranking(s): NR
2018 Stats: .182/.229/.273, 1 HR, 0 SB in 11 games at Rookie-level Bluefield; .331/.390/.500, 4 HR, 0 SB in 37 games for GCL Blue Jays

The Report: The first of two Magnolia High alums taken by the Jays in last summer’s draft, Groshans is a big ol’ Texas country boy with country strength to match (yes, yes Magnolia is a sleepy Houston suburb, but let’s not let that get in the way of scouting cliches, I have a word count to hit). For now, Toronto has him splitting time between shortstop and third base. The former seems…optimistic given his frame, but his strong arm will play at either spot on the left side of the infield and he has solid enough hands for the hot corner. The body might not cooperate there in five years either, but further physical projection might also allow Groshans to grow into even more raw power. It’s plus at present, although he struggles to get to it at times due to a fairly flat swing plane. There’s a bit of length to the swing, and an occasional bat wrap sporadically lengthens it further. The profile will require more basting than your average high-pick prep bat, but Groshans could be an above-average regular when the timer goes off.

The Role:

OFP 55—Above-average third baseman

Likely 45—Second-division starter, position TBD

The Risks: High. Hit tool questions, positional questions, limited pro track record, basically the Full Monty.

Major league ETA: 2022

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Groshans may not be among the first 10 guys you pop in dynasty first-year player drafts, but he should probably be among the next 10. A three-plus season lead time isn’t wonderful, but Groshans has the power and hit projections needed to turn into a top-12 fantasy third baseman in time. Factor in how well the Jays have developed guys like this lately, and there’s more to like here from a fantasy perspective than first meets the eye.


10. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
DOB: 8/1/1995
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 225 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 21st overall in the 2016 draft, University of Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh, PA); signed for $2.175 million
Previous Ranking(s): #10 (Org)
2018 Stats: 3.08 ERA, 4.02 DRA, 120 IP, 120 H, 31 BB, 81 K in 21 games at Double-A New Hampshire; 3.47 ERA, 5.91 DRA, 36 ⅓ IP, 34 H, 9 BB, 24 K in 6 games at High-A Dunedin

The Report: So this fellow is a giant former first-rounder who throws a plus sinker and flashes three offspeed pitches at above-average or better, and has useful command often enough. What is he doing all the way down here? Well, there’s a hard reality about the modern game, in that you can have a 60 fastball and two average offspeed pitches without really having a swing-and-miss offering. This has already manifested in Zeuch’s poor strikeout rates. The other issue is that his command profile, slider, curve, and change all come and go from look-to-look. He’s consistently shown enough to get outs but he hasn’t been dominant as often as you’d like. Tall pitchers do sometimes develop late, and there are enough individual pieces here for optimism.

The Role:

OFP 55—A cromulent mid-rotation starter

Likely 45—A less cromulent bottom-of-the-rotation starter or okay setup guy

The Risks: Moderate, in that he could just be a sixth starter or middle reliever. There’s also more positive risk than you’d think for a 23-year-old college pitcher—there are worse upside bets than the tall dude with this kind of pitch profile. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: Summer 2019.

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Zeuch has just enough upside to be more interesting than most mid-to-backend starter prospects, but that’s damning with faint praise. Toronto is not a good place to pitch, Zeuch looks likely to kill your WHIP at present and wins may be hard to come by as a Jay for a good little while. He’s a watch list player at best.


The Next Five:

11. Cavan Biggio, IF (Double-A New Hampshire)

The other, other, other bloodlines guy at New Hampshire this year, Biggio may not have the upside of Bichette or Vladito, nor the major league time under his belt of Gurriel, but his 2018 was a bit of a minor breakout. While he’d be far from the first lefty to have a power spike playing his home games Northeast Delta Dental Stadium, Biggio was actually better on the road in 2018. He tweaked his swing to tap into his solid-average raw power and has turned into a potential three-true-outcomes infielder. Where he ends up on the dirt is an intriguing question. He’d be fringy at second or third, but could handle either spot (the aforementioned existence of Vladito, Bichette, and Gurriel meant he played a fair bit of first as well), and while it’s not out of the question that he slugs and walks his way to a second-division starter role at one of those spots, Biggio might be best suited as a Swiss Army knife lefty bench piece with some pop. The Blue Jays have started getting him some corner outfield reps as well, perhaps with an eye toward that outcome.

12. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP (GCL Blue Jays)

Groshans’ high school teammate got 2.5 million bucks to forgo TCU. Unlike most prep arms, Kloffenstein doesn’t need any late-night runs to Raising Cane’s to fill out his frame. He’s already built like a rotation stalwart, and most of the rest of the profile fits the “third-round overslot prep arm” mold. He’s got a fastball that can touch the mid-90s and features wicked two-seam action at times. He has two breaking balls that bleed together a bit, but he’ll flash a tight power slider. The change-up is a “work in progress.” There’s some reliever risk here; compact arm action, Kloffenstein has significant effort in his delivery. Still, given the present stuff and frame, he’s a fairly “safe” prep arm—which is to say, not safe at all, but relatively safe.

13. Griffin Conine, OF (Short-season-A Vancouver)

The other, other, other, other bloodlines guy in the Jays system, Conine was a potential first-round pick coming into his junior year at Duke, but struggled a bit the first half of the season as he sold out for power too much. When you have plus-plus raw, fair enough, but the strikeouts mounted. While he toned it down and his overall line ended up quite robust, concerns about the—at times—controlled violence in his swing may have led to a bit of a draft day slide. The K’s and bombs continued apace in his pro career, and he’s limited to an outfield corner, so the bombs will have to come pretty regularly. But there’s enough juice in the bat to project a potential regular with time. Conine will also miss the first 50 games of 2019 after testing positive for a banned stimulant.

14. Hector Perez, RHP (Double-A New Hampshire)

Hey, it’s a 95-and-a-slider dude! Perez can actually touch higher in short bursts which might portend more consistent upper-90s velo if he moves to the bullpen, which… he probably will. The arm action is compact but a bit violent, and he’s struggled with both his control and command as a starter. He pairs the fastball with a tight, power slider that also carries plus projection. It’s potential impact stuff in relief, and Perez could hit the majors in 2019, assuming he can get the walk rate even marginally more under control.

15. Thomas Pannone, LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)

I should know better by now than to buy-in to another strike-throwing southpaw sitting in the high-80s with average secondaries after some upper-minors (and even major-league) success. And that’s even before we consider that Pannone will have to get by with that profile in the AL East, playing his home games in the Rogers Centre. This profile has fine margins, and while some of these dudes have real major league careers, they also account for a plurality of starters in the upper minors. So your hit rate isn’t going to be good.

But I’ve always liked Pannone more than I should. Some of these guys do make it for a few years after all, and he can hit all four quadrants with the fastball. He hides it a bit, runs it a bit. He’s got a big, slow, sweepy curve in the low-70s that he can manipulate, spot or bury. There’s good feel for an average change. Pannone might give up a million home runs in the majors, but he’s already in the majors, and for whatever reason I think he can be a backend starter or swing guy for a while. These aren’t really pref lists, except when they are kinda sorta pref lists.

Others of note:

#16

Logan Warmoth, SS (High-A Dunedin)

Certainly on pedigree Warmoth deserves to be ahead of Pannone (and arguably a few other names in the next five), but it’s hard to describe his 2018 with anything more polite than “well, it was a lost season.” You would expect a polished, 22-year-old college bat to make easy work of the Florida State League, but Warmoth struggled badly. We don’t scout the statline of course, but production will matter with this profile, as he doesn’t offer much in the way of tools or physical projection. So it would be nice if he’d hit a bit.

The power was always likely to play as below-average, but one home run in a half-season in High-A isn’t great, Bob. Warmoth projects as a below-average runner who will have to grind it out at short, and may fit better at third, so an average over .250 would improve our confidence interval w/r/t his being a major-league starter. And yes, Warmoth missed time with hamstring issues, that could be a factor, but he does seem to get hurt a lot. So performance isn’t the be all and end all, but it does have to be explained. And none of the explanations I can come up with here are going to be more comforting than “well, it was a lost season.”

The factor on the farm

Jordan Romano, RHP (Triple-A Buffalo)

Hey, another 95-and-a-slider dude! Romano is a fine example of how this profile comes from everywhere now—an underslot 10th-rounder out of Oral Roberts in this case. You know the drill: Romano is a big dude who throws in the mid-90s with good command and an average hard slider that flashes better. There’s a tad more upside here than you’d think for a guy who just spent the season being good but not great in Double-A at age-25; it took him a few seasons to really get going as a pro due to Tommy John surgery the spring after he was drafted. Whether or not he stays in the rotation depends on the development of his change, which is still fringy. Not the world’s most exciting profile, but he’s probably going to pitch in the majors for awhile. —Jarrett Seidler

The changing face of your 40-man

Forrest Wall, OF (Double-A New Hampshire)

The return from the Rockies for Final Boss, Wall is a former first-round pick who wasn’t a disaster in Double-A and was acquired for a pretty good (and cheap) reliever with an additional year of control. He was then not added to the Blue Jays 40-man for Rule 5 protection purposes. Could he stick on another team? Perhaps. He’s a plus runner who’s still rough in center at times, but he has the range for it.

The swing still looks good. It’s a classic, rotational left-handed stroke, although he looked lost at times against Double-A stuff. He lacks physicality… wait, do I just see Carlos Tocci in every prospect now? That’s not a great comp, but it might be what Wall does if he’s jumped to the majors. And you may not get more than a fourth outfielder at the end of his now-disrupted development process. Unless you are 95-with-a-slider (his arm is fringy and would force him to left if he can’t stick up the middle), teams are going to try and sneak you through an extra year now.

Top Talents 25 and Under:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2. Bo Bichette
3. Nate Pearson
4. Danny Jansen
5. Kevin Smith
6. Ryan Borucki
7. Lourdes Gurriel
8. Eric Pardinho
9. Sean Reid-Foley
10. Anthony Alford

In each of the last two years, this space has led off by noting that hey, the Blue Jays sure are old. It would be poor storytelling for me to not complete the trilogy; at an average of 30.3 years of age, Toronto was indeed old as all heck in 2018. They were also, for the second consecutive year, bad. Old and bad are perhaps the two worst conjoined traits for a baseball team, and fortunately, Mark Shapiro and company have been busy behind the scenes.

Like the planet of Tatooine, the view of Toronto’s 25U talent is dominated by the beauty and scorching heat coming off twin stars. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is maybe the only teenager in the history of the game for whom hitting .330 in Triple-A feels anticlimactic, while Bo Bichette is just your standard 20-year-old handling Double-A with aplomb. For some franchises, having either of the two would be a once-a-decade kind of developmental coup. The Blue Jays have both, and the ceiling of the franchise’s next era feels inexorably linked to their two stud prospects.

Below the headliners, Toronto’s youngsters flash talent across positions and levels. Nate Pearson is a huge arm attached to a huge body, coming off a lost season. Kevin Smith is a slick fielding shortstop whose bat serves as another encouraging sign of the org’s ability to develop talent. Ditto Danny Jansen, who in two years has progressed from organizational afterthought to Russell Martin’s successor-in-waiting.

The last half of the list darts all over the map. Ryan Borucki harnessed his spectacularly whelming profile into spectacularly whelming big-league results, which is worth more than most fans give it credit for. Lourdes Gurriel was the most difficult talent to rank on this list. His prospect hype has waned, and his defense doesn’t make him enough of an asset to offset the fact that he walks and dingers just a bit less than needed to be anything more than adequate with the bat. Still, he’s a big leaguer, and given that MLB stalwarts like Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman have aged out of consideration for this list, Gurriel settles in at seven here.

Eric Pardinho is barely old enough to drive, and won’t reach Toronto until well into the next decade, but his international pedigree and signing bonus, coupled with the faces his fastball melted off in rookie ball, squeak him onto the list. Sean Reid-Foley climbed through three levels in 2018, including Toronto, and missed bats at every level. Anthony Alford has showcased droolworthy tools for years, but hasn’t yet to put it all together. His ceiling as a plus CF and accompanying athleticism is all that keeps him on this list—and less athletic players like Billy McKinney, and Reese McGuire off of it.

The Legion of Adult Large Son Fans will scream for Rowdy Tellez to be on here, and it’s an understandable ask; barrel-shaped boys finding barrel is an aesthetic delight. However, Tallez’s underwhelming performance in two seasons of Triple-A make his marginal success in the bigs last September look flukier than we’d like, and his defensive and baserunning skills are, uh, not great.

The 2015-16 Blue Jays were the most entertaining and successful Canadian team in decades, but they were an old club with a short shelf life. The stagnation and ultimate dissolution of that talent stings; saying goodbye to heroes always does. But while 2019 will be a rebuilding year, the farm system looks ready to graduate at least one, and perhaps two legitimate stars. With unrivaled top end prospect depth, and some fun guys coming up behind them, next year’s Blue Jays will at least let fans dream of the future, a welcome improvement over mourning the death of their recent past. —Nathan Bishop

[Black Watch]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-jays-prospect-ryan-noda-channels-kevin-youkilis-and-joey-votto/

Sunday Notes: Jays Prospect Ryan Noda Channels Kevin Youkilis (and Joey Votto)

by David Laurila
December 15, 2018

There’s a pretty good chance you haven’t heard of Ryan Noda. That may even be the case if you follow the team that took him in the 15th round of the 2017 draft. Playing in a Toronto Blue Jays system that boasts numerous top-shelf prospects, Noda is anything but a notable name.

Expect that to change if he continues to do what he’s been doing. In 803 professional plate appearances, the 22-year-old University of Cincinnati product is slashing — drum roll, please — a nifty .293/.451/.515.

Oh, that OBP.

Here’s a fun comp: In his first professional season, Kevin Youkilis had a .504 OBP in 276 plate appearances. In his first professional season, Noda had a .507 OBP in 276 plate appearances. Both former UC Bearcats were on-base machines in their second year as well, reaching base at .436 and .421 clips respectively.

When I talked to Noda this past summer, he described himself as “patient, yet aggressive at the same time.”

The latter is bearing as much fruit as the former. Swinging from the left side, the 22-year-old first baseman-outfielder propelled 20 baseballs over fences this season for the Low-A Lansing Lugnuts. Coinciding with an increased emphasis on attacking the baseball, nine of those home runs came in the month of August.

“He ended up connecting really well with (hitting coach) Matty Young and used a more aggressive approach towards the latter half of the season,” explained Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim. “When he’s on, he’s in a small group of hitters who impact the ball as hard as he does. He’s a good athlete who is selective at the plate.”

Which brings us back to The Greek God of Walks.

“When I was at Cincinnati, Kevin Youkilis came to a couple of our practices and we’d pick his brain,” said Noda, who posted a 20.7% walk rate against Midwest League pitching. “Not swinging at strikes you don’t want is one of the things I picked up on. I’ve watched some video on him, too. He was one of the best selective-aggressive guys out there. When he got his pitch, he could do some damage with it.”

Which brings us back to what Kim said about Noda’s ability to impact the baseball. A month before being drafted by the Blue Jays, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound up-and-comer became the second Bearcat to hit a home run onto the roof of Fifth Third Arena. While he professes to being “a gap-to-gap guy,” he probably profiles as more of a bopper.

That said, his swing isn’t of the stereotypical launch-angle variety.

“I’d say I’m more even-plane than anything,” Noda explained. “I pretty much take my natural swing; the one from when I was little. I haven’t really messed with it too much. There are things you need to tweak as you go higher, but the overall concept of your swing is going to stay the same.

“Short and compact is the key. You want to be short and compact, and stay through the ball. I think that’s every hitter’s goal with every swing they take. If I do that, and stay selective, things tend to go pretty well.”

Things have indeed been going pretty well for the native of Volo, Illinois, which brings us to a closing comp. Noda could reasonably be referred to a poor-man’s Joey Votto.

“I watch Votto a ton,” Noda informed me. “My two-strike approach came from him — the choke up, kind of widening out, and if I do get a pitcher’s pitch, foul it off and wait until he makes a mistake. His approach is a big reason he puts up the numbers he does every year. It’s why he is who he is. I can’t compare myself to him — I’m not close to being in his class — but I can say this: I model my game after Joey Votto.”

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-jays-prospect-ryan-noda-channels-kevin-youkilis-and-joey-votto/

[wamco]

Can we rank as starters, in your opinion, the arms atkins traded for ?
Merryweather, Thornton, Paulino, Perez , copping, waguespack

Who did I miss?

And throw in SRF , borucki and panonne in as well .

Should I actually be excited about these guys or not?

[North_of_Border]

Can we rank as starters, in your opinion, the arms atkins traded for ?
Merryweather, Thornton, Paulino, Perez , copping, waguespack

Who did I miss?

And throw in SRF , borucki and panonne in as well .

Should I actually be excited about these guys or not?

1- Borucki
2- SRF
3- Panonne
4- Thornton
5- Perez

..... not sure if the rest. But a dark horse is the 18 year old they claimed from KC. He might be a piece in a few years. Just gotta keep him in the majors next season though.

[hst420]

110 loss season inc.

[dagger]

Read on Twitter

[SharoneWright]

Chavez Young hype-train leaving the station..... Nice article with some nice analysis.

When I was first asked about Chavez Young, honestly I vaguely recognized the name. I knew he was a Blue Jays outfielder, but that’s about it (and I work with prospects!). Just looking at the stat line, I was impressed. And the deeper I looked, the more I began to think that this might be the most criminally underrated prospect in baseball.

Quick question. Who was the only prospect in baseball to record 50 extra base hits and steal 40 bases in 2018? You guessed it, Chavez Young. Which prospect is rated as having the best defensive arm in the Blue Jays system by Baseball America, with 98 MPH from the outfield recorded in HS? You guessed it again, Chavez Young. So how does a player like this go so under the radar? How does a 20-year-old in full-season ball who plays plus defense, hits 3rd in his lineup and had 50 XBH and 40 steals not even make MLB Pipeline’s top 30 for the organization?

http://baseball-farm.com/index.php/2019/01/07/chavez-young-the-2018-breakout-nobody-is-talking-about/

[dagger]

Chavez Young hype-train leaving the station..... Nice article with some nice analysis.

When I was first asked about Chavez Young, honestly I vaguely recognized the name. I knew he was a Blue Jays outfielder, but that’s about it (and I work with prospects!). Just looking at the stat line, I was impressed. And the deeper I looked, the more I began to think that this might be the most criminally underrated prospect in baseball.

Quick question. Who was the only prospect in baseball to record 50 extra base hits and steal 40 bases in 2018? You guessed it, Chavez Young. Which prospect is rated as having the best defensive arm in the Blue Jays system by Baseball America, with 98 MPH from the outfield recorded in HS? You guessed it again, Chavez Young. So how does a player like this go so under the radar? How does a 20-year-old in full-season ball who plays plus defense, hits 3rd in his lineup and had 50 XBH and 40 steals not even make MLB Pipeline’s top 30 for the organization?

http://baseball-farm.com/index.php/2019/01/07/chavez-young-the-2018-breakout-nobody-is-talking-about/

Nice read. I think the outfield options in the Jays system don't get discussed enough. I also watched Josh Palacio have a nice season at DUN and contribute to NH's two playoff rounds. With Young, I've been watching him since he was signed for that nice bonus. Clearly, when a 39th round pick gets a $200,000 bonus, the organization believes he should have gone higher. Frankly, I'm not sure how such a player can reach the 39th round undrafted, because once you get past the teens, where's the risk in taking a stab at a hard to sign kid? I've been hyping him here. What really impresses me and makes me think he has a decent chance of making it to the big leagues is his body. He has the look of a star athlete. He's filled out really well for a 20 year old. The Jays have a number of position players who have put up nice numbers, but they don't have the bodies of star athletics. They are short, like a 5'9" catcher. There are always players like Jose Altuve who defy the stereotype, but what are the odds? But a kid like Young with a great athletic body (6'0" 195 lbs) and obvious tools derived from it, like the speed, the arm, etc, has much more going for him. If he gets off to a good start in DUN, I think he'll start getting recognition from the bigger name prospect rating sites. I'm not surprised he's not in the Jays top 30, it's getting pretty crowded as a result of trades that have added prospects, and it's going to take success at a level like Advanced A to move ahead of some of the guys in the bottom part of our top 30 lists.

[dagger]

Here's another prospect rating for the Jays' system

https://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/toronto-blue-jays-2019-top-50-prospects/

The official Super Sleeper this year?

SUPER SLEEPER ALERT
Josh Winckowski, SP
Age: 20 (DOB: 06/28/98)
2018 Highest Level: short-A
Selected in the 15th round of the 2016 draft. Winckowski really put things together and took off in the second half of the season with a 1.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in his final 6 starts at short-A Vancouver. With a fastball touching 96 mph and good slider and curve he had 40K and only 7 walks in his final 35.1 innings. He was named the Northwest League Pitcher of the Year. Look for a breakout season starting at Low-A Lansing in 2019.

A few other descriptions I like

4. Kevin Smith, SS (’18 rank #25)
Age: 22 (DOB: 07/04/96)
2018 Highest Level: High-A
Smith was selected in the 4th round of the 2017 draft. In his first two seasons he has improved at every step but he will face tougher competition as he moves up to AA New Hampshire in 2019. He hit .302/.358/.528 with 25 HR and 29 SB combined between Low-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin. Versatility is a plus as he has seen time at shortstop, third and second base.

9. Eric Pardinho, RHP (’18 Rank #20)
Age: 18 (DOB: 01/05/01)
2018 Highest Level: Rookie
Pardinho was signed during the 2017 J2 signing period for $1.4M. He excelled in his debut at rookie level Bluefield where he posted a 2.88 ERA with 11.5 K/9 in 11 starts. He has a 96 mph fastball and a good four-pitch mix at a very young age. They could move him straight to Low-A Lansing in 2019 where he should continue to dominate hitters. A future ace

26. Samad Taylor, 2B (’18 Rank #40)
Age: 20 (DOB: 07/11/98)
2018 Highest Level: Low-A
Taylor was acquired along with Thomas Pannone in the trade for reliever Joe Smith. He has great speed with 44 stolen bases at Low-A Lansing. His 9 HR shows that there could be some power there as well. Potential for a breakout season as he moves up to High-A Dunedin in 2019.

29. Chavez Young, OF (’18 unranked)
Age: 21 (DOB: 07/08/97)
2018 Highest Level: Low-A
The unheralded 39th round pick from the 2016 draft had a very impressive year at Low-A Lansing hitting .285/.363/.445 with 8 HR and 44 stolen bases. He was the only player in minor league baseball to have 50 extra base hits and 40 stolen bases. A dynasty sleeper we will watch to see if he can maintain those numbers as he moves up to High-A Dunedin.

38. Yennsy Diaz, RHP (’18 Rank #38)
Age: 22 (DOB: 11/15/96)
2018 Highest Level: High-A
Diaz had an outstanding the year in 2018. He started the season going 5-1, 2.08 ERA in 9 starts at Low-A Lansing before moving up to High-A Dunedin where he finished the season a combined 10-5, 3.05 ERA. He was added to the 40 man roster prior to the rule 5 draft so they think highly of him. He should get a few starts this year at Dunedin before quickly moving up to AA New Hampshire.

42. Gabriel Moreno, C (’18 unranked)
Age: 18 (DOB: 02/14/00)
2018 Highest Level: Rookie
Moreno had an outstanding season in his first year stateside first in the GCL and then moving on to Bluefield. He hit .359/.395/.575 in 40 games. He should move up to short-A Vancouver in 2019. Look for a breakout season.

[wamco]

What are thoughts on the list? Not too high on the arms we recently traded for

[SharoneWright]

Watch on YouTube

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[dagger]

Meaningless factoid, but here goes

Brito was rated the No 23 Dodger prospect on MLB Pipeline; he's been slotted in at No 26 on our two 30.