#4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - Top 10 Defensively at each position Project

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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#21 » by Shot Clock » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:17 am

Owly wrote:
Shot Clock wrote:How is Rodman not on this list? Do people think he was always a PF? He was racking up defensive awards on the Pistons as a SF where he was guarding anyone from Pippen to Jordan.

See the small forward introductory thread. viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1764269

Long story short: Players are allocated one position. Rodman (whilst some noted his defensive abilities as a SF) was considered primarily a PF.

Also "from Pippen to Jordan" (SG to SF, both athletic slashers) seems to me to be underselling young Rodman's defensive range/versatility (probably by quite a lot).


I didn’t spend a lot of time listing the guys he defended but he could handle pg’s to Larry Bird at the time.

He was clearly a SF when he was getting his DPOY’s
and played next to a series of big men. It was also his prime and as he aged he transitioned to PF but labeling a guy who was one of the best SF’s ever defensively as a only a PF is a crime.

This is probably why I avoid these ranking attempts, some of these arbitrary decisions just seem crazy.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#22 » by Owly » Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:36 pm

Shot Clock wrote:
Owly wrote:
Shot Clock wrote:How is Rodman not on this list? Do people think he was always a PF? He was racking up defensive awards on the Pistons as a SF where he was guarding anyone from Pippen to Jordan.

See the small forward introductory thread. viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1764269

Long story short: Players are allocated one position. Rodman (whilst some noted his defensive abilities as a SF) was considered primarily a PF.

Also "from Pippen to Jordan" (SG to SF, both athletic slashers) seems to me to be underselling young Rodman's defensive range/versatility (probably by quite a lot).


I didn’t spend a lot of time listing the guys he defended but he could handle pg’s to Larry Bird at the time.

He was clearly a SF when he was getting his DPOY’s
and played next to a series of big men. It was also his prime and as he aged he transitioned to PF but labeling a guy who was one of the best SF’s ever defensively as a only a PF is a crime.

This is probably why I avoid these ranking attempts, some of these arbitrary decisions just seem crazy.

You didn't have to spend a lot of time listing the guys he defended. "From X to Y" implies a range [i.e. you need two] and you posted "from Pippen to Jordan", hence the underselling his range comment.

You have repeated that he got his most prominent defensive accolades as a small forward. This is mentioned/discussed in the thread I have directed you to.

Rodman hasn't been labelled as "only a PF" (at least not by this project as a whole, though there were those who felt his position was a simple matter), rather he is being ranked only within PF rankings to avoid situations such as a player's support being split between two positions and ranking low (or not at all) on two lists rather than in a more appropriate position on one. Arguably this information could be put in the OP to assist newcomers to the project or assist comprehension of it as resource after the project is finished; those who have followed however understand what is happening.

I don't see that the decision is in any way akin to "a crime" or "crazy".
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#23 » by penbeast0 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:23 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:My vote goes to andre iguodala. I don't have a real reasoning, but between the guys I have considered, I consider him slightly better than marion and with more defensive longevity, better and with more longevity than battier, kawhi has like 1/3 of his minutes played, kirilenko is better than him but the longevity disparity is probably bigger. havlicek could deserve a spot too at this point, but for now I'm picking andre


So you don't even consider Bowen? Why not, just out of curiousity?
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#24 » by trex_8063 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:00 pm

Just going to present some ranked and concise multi-modal stat/data/info comparisons for most of the top candidates for this spot, plus Robert Covington [who I'm not sure is a legit candidate any time soon due to scant longevity, but anyway I've harvested his figures] as well as the guy who just took #3.
I don't have time to write some scouting report right now, but use this info [or not] as you wish......

All-Defensive Honors "Points" (awarding 1.5 pts for 1st Team selection, 1.0 for 2nd Team)
John Havlicek - 10.5 (*All-D honors only awarded his final 10 seasons)
Bruce Bowen - 10.5
Lebron James - 8.5
Kawhi Leonard - 5.5
Andrei Kirilenko - 3.5
Andre Iguodala - 2.5
Shane Battier - 2.0
Robert Covington - 1.5

DPOY Shares
Kawhi Leonard - 1.736 (2x winner)
Bruce Bowen - 1.514
Lebron James - 0.886
Shane Battier - 0.548
Andrei Kirilenko - 0.366
Andre Iguodala - 0.265
Robert Covington - 0.024
**DPOY not awarded in Havlicek's career

Career DBPM (not including '19)
Andrei Kirilenko - +3.5
Kawhi Leonard - +2.7
Shane Battier - +1.9
Lebron James - +1.9
Bruce Bowen - +1.8
Andre Iguodala - +1.6
Robert Covington - +1.0
*John Havlicek - +0.1 (*only available his final five seasons)

Career DWS (not including '19)
John Havlicek - 74.1
Lebron James - 64.4
Andre Iguodala - 44.1
Shane Battier - 35.3
Andrei Kirilenko - 34.7
Bruce Bowen - 33.5
Kawhi Leonard - 24.7
Robert Covington - 12.1

Defensive Value Over Replacement Level [-0.75] as measured by DRAPM (Defensive Estimated Impact for Havlicek)
CAREER Defensive Value Over Replacement
Andre Iguodala - 94,380.5
Lebron James - 81,906.4
John Havlicek - 74,340.75
Shane Battier - 73,682.5
Bruce Bowen - 51,345.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 40,306.35
Kawhi Leonard - 29,493.5
Robert Covington - 25,349.9

Average Defensive Value Over Replacement PER SEASON
Andre Iguodala - 6,741.5
Shane Battier - 5,667.9
Lebron James - 5,460.4
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
John Havlicek - 4,646.3
Bruce Bowen - 4,278.8
Kawhi Leonard - 4,213.4
Andrei Kirilenko - 3,100.5

Best 5-years Averaged
Shane Battier - 10,586.0
Andre Iguodala - 9,456.6
Lebron James - 9,417.8
John Havlicek - 6,440.8
Bruce Bowen - 6,280.9
Kawhi Leonard - 6,031.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 5,612.9
Robert Covington - 5,070.0

Best Single-Season VOR
Shane Battier - 14,053.05
Robert Covington - 12,254.9
Andre Iguodala - 11,810.75
Lebron James - 10,841.7
Kawhi Leonard - 10,805.2
Bruce Bowen - 7,711.2
John Havlicek - 7,239.05
Andrei Kirilenko - 6,639.95
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#25 » by Ainosterhaspie » Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:01 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:I don't think Leonard has the longevity to have a spot yet. I'm leaning Battier, though Iguodala and Bowen are in consideration for me here too.


So is this a vote for battier?


Yes. For the moment. I may change based on what others say here.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#26 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:13 pm

Longevity ugh. People care too much about longevity. Better is better.

LeBron got in. Better is better but what about consistency? LeBron was right to save himself for offense on the other hand teamates play better defense when the star works on defense. I would not have put LeBron in my to 5 because even though his top defensive posessions were great his average defensive posession was not good enough. The same issue came up for Jordan but To a lessor degree.

I like speed.

Voting for Kawhi
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#27 » by kendogg » Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:21 pm

John Havlicek for reasons previously cited (sorry not much time)
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#28 » by trex_8063 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:13 pm

I'm sort of glad Lebron is off the table. For one, he's such a contentious figure I've come to dislike being involved in discussions pertaining to him. Additionally, although my last cast vote (#2 thread) was for Battier, I subsequently was wavering on that, mostly out of consideration for Lebron and Iguodala. Lebron being out of the way kind of simplifies things for me. I'm down to primarily considering Iggy and Battier (with Bowen and Havlicek somewhat in the mix for me, too).

Iggy is listed as 6'6" and 215 lbs by both bbref and nba.com, 6'7" and 217 by DraftExpress.
Battier is listed 6'8" and 220 lbs by bbref, but 6'9" and 229 by DraftExpress.
Iggy has excellent reach for his height with a recorded 6'11" wingspan. Battier also has fairly long arms (not sure if has Iggy's span beat, but certainly good length/reach for his height). Couldn't find specific listings for their respective standing reaches, but I'd hazard a guess that Battier has Iguodala just marginally beat there, based on being ~2" taller and having somewhat long arms himself. And with roughly 5-10 lbs more mass, too, it's safe to say he's effectively the "bigger" SF.

However, Iguodala has clearly superior lateral quickness and is the more explosive leaper. And "pound-for-pound", I speculate that Iguodala may be marginally stronger, too (can't prove it, though).

Both are quite versatile defenders. Iguodala's combination of length, quickness, strength, and footwork enable him to effectively guard anything 1-4 (well, or at least as far as guarding "large" SF's---such as Lebron---very well). Battier, being bigger, can probably more effectively guard PF's, but his lateral quickness doesn't enable him to stay in front of most PG's (or some of the quicker SG's), though his length does aid him in "catching up" when he's beat. Gun to my head, I probably give Iguodala a very marginal edge in versatility, though it's debatable.

Stylistically, Iguodala looks better to me in on-ball pressure. He's much more physical in defending a dribbler: moves his feet well and stays in front, but also uses his body to bump and discourage his opponent. He's also got quick hands on those long arms, which he's constantly using to harass the dribble; consequently forces more turnovers than Battier.
Shane Battier, to my eye, plays a little "softer" [that is: less contact] on-ball, but is extremely intelligent as far as his positioning and footwork is concerned.
Looking at some of their box-based defensive production:
Iguodala has career averages of 2.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 6.3 DRebs per 100 possessions.
Battier averaged 1.7 steals, 1.6 blocks, though only 4.9 DRebs per 100. That's a really high block avg from a SF, though from what I've seen of Battier I think a lot of his blocks come on jump-shooters. He gets a lot simply by being in good position and keeping a hand up (doesn't get burned in a "hand down, man down" situation often), because he's so long. To me, these are among the lowest value blocks (because jump-shots are the shots that are most likely to miss and be rebounded by the defensive team anyway). otoh, the fact that he's so "present" in contesting outside shots likely also means there are tons of shots he's reducing the accuracy of without coming up with a box-score tally (such as a block).
Overall, I feel like Battier's the better outside shot contester, but Iguodala is more generally disruptive. Both guys are very timely in their rotations and help assignments.


In terms of accolades from the media, it's more or less a wash, or at best a tiny edge to Battier: he's got a small-moderate edge in terms of DPOY shares, though Iguodala has the slimmest of edges in All-Defensive honors.

In terms of box-based defensive metrics, it's basically a wash (or at best a tiny edge to Iguodala):
Battier's got the marginally better DBPM (though Iggy's on more career minutes, fwiw). Iggy's got the small edge in DWS total. Both have a career 105 DRtg (Iggy's looks just marginally better in terms of rDRTG).

In terms of Value Over Replacement (via DRAPM), Battier looks to have the better single-season peak and the better top 5 seasons average. But then Iguodala's got the better overall average season and a comfortable edge in cumulative career DVOR.


It's hard to say where all of that leaves me, but I want to get a vote in before the deadline. I'm tentatively going with Andre Iguodala as my pick here.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#29 » by No-more-rings » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:45 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Wow just realized Lebron got in at 3rd. Still seems rather high. For the talk of Leonard’s defensive longevity..how much better is Lebron’s? Leonard has like 2013-2017 at that elite level, Lebron 09-13. I get that Lebron still has other good defensive years but does that override that Kawhi’s defensive peak was clearly higher? I might make the case that 4/5 of those seasons I mentioned all were better defensive years than anything from Lebron.


In 2016, LeBron was second among all wing players in DRPM trailing only Kawhi with a +3.30. That was better than Kawhi had in DRPM any season except for ‘15 or ‘16. Furthermore, it was built on the single best defensive performance by a wing player in the history of the NBA Finals. I think you’re really selling LeBron short to say he stopped being elite defensively in 2013.

Why use DRPM when there’s DRAPM? This source below has Lebron as a 1.38, trailing lots of perimeter players.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2015-16/regular-season/

ORAPM and moreso DRAPM tends to have some noisy results of course, that’s why I only ever use it as a counter, or as part of an argument. I think it can be a tiebreaker if other things seem to stack up comparably. I do think Lebron was a “good defender” in the regular season and he upped it to great in the playoffs though i give him that.

I’m not really necessarily sold his finals was the best defensive performance for a wing though. There’s just been too many series with elite defensive wings in it to just assume Lebron’s was open and shut the best ever.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#30 » by trex_8063 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:52 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Wow just realized Lebron got in at 3rd. Still seems rather high. For the talk of Leonard’s defensive longevity..how much better is Lebron’s? Leonard has like 2013-2017 at that elite level, Lebron 09-13. I get that Lebron still has other good defensive years but does that override that Kawhi’s defensive peak was clearly higher? I might make the case that 4/5 of those seasons I mentioned all were better defensive years than anything from Lebron.


In 2016, LeBron was second among all wing players in DRPM trailing only Kawhi with a +3.30. That was better than Kawhi had in DRPM any season except for ‘15 or ‘16. Furthermore, it was built on the single best defensive performance by a wing player in the history of the NBA Finals. I think you’re really selling LeBron short to say he stopped being elite defensively in 2013.

Why use DRPM when there’s DRAPM? This source below has Lebron as a 1.38, trailing lots of perimeter players.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2015-16/regular-season/



It's worth noting that's RS-only RAPM. Data-sets which included consideration of the '16 playoffs had Lebron's full-season PI DRAPM as +2.74 in '16 (behind only Kawhi and Danny Green among perimeter players), and +2.89 NPI DRAPM (behind only Tony Snell and Kawhi among perimeter players).
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#31 » by trex_8063 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:55 pm

I'm taking a closer look at Luol Deng, and I think he's someone who perhaps deserves some consideration fairly soon, too.

EDIT: Also looking at Shawn Marion, Gerald Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince. All arguably names we shouldn't be sleeping on for too much longer (although I'm skeptical on Prince).
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#32 » by PigsOnTheWing » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:33 pm

Unfortunately I wasn't able to vote for the first 3 positions but I'm pretty satisfied with how things have gone, I've not really much to argue. Anyway I've analyzed the top candidates and run their boxscore derived defensive values through my formula. The replacement level was set at -1.5 for SFs as it was for SGs, (though I'm not sure it's fair for the formers if this project was without positional limitations, but it is so nevermind)
Here are the results (I'll post the full list with the players already in, to put things in perspective).

CAREER:
#1 Pippen 2499.7
#2 James 2294.9
#3 Marion 2281.4
#4 Iguodala 1855.8
#5 Kirilenko 1651.1
#6 Artest 1628.2
#7 Battier 1621.6
#8 Bowen 1355.3
#9 Prince 951.0
#10 Leonard 925.6

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Pippen 1108.5
#2 Marion 1081.5
#3 James 1007.2
#4 Kirilenko 913.9
#5 Battier 888.1
#6 Leonard 829.2
#7 Bowen 813.1
#8 Iguodala 809.3
#9 Artest 752.9
#10 Prince 589.5

PEAK:
#1 Pippen 256.9 (1995)
#2 Marion 248.0 (2001)
#3 James 243.6 (2009)
#4 Kirilenko 239.5 (2004)
#5 Leonard 226.2 (2016)
#6 Battier 209.1 (2007)
#7 Iguodala 183.5 (2005) (His rookie year!)
#8 Bowen 182.5 (2004)
#9 Artest 168.9 (2004)
#10 Prince 152.4 (2005)

Ok, some notes:
1) I didn't include Havlicek because there are too many years where we don't have all the metrics available to make this an apples-to-apples comparison. Fwiw, in the EI dataset he rates fairly well (it must also be noted that, probably due to the lack of information, the EI values for pre-1974 years are closer to 0 than they are post-1974, for example Russell is merely a +4 on D while with normal data he'd be more like +6/6.5)
2) Marion comes out suprisingly well. I don't remember him as some defensive savant, he was that kind of guy that is really good at everything but not elite in anything. He has the optimal combination of steals and blocks to be rated well by DBPM and I suppose also by DPIPM and DEI. Despite his versatility, his on/off data isn't that great: he is especially poor in on/off efg%, as he was often in the low 20s percentiles for his entire career, suggesting he wasn't that lockdown defender some of the other candidates were (and it's also not how I remember him for). The incredible amount of 0 defensive awards and selections also may confirm this theory.
3) Kirilenko appears to have been the best of them all when he was available from 2004 to 2007. Unfortunately for him, it's a limited time and he wasn't injury-free in those years neither. I feel he has too short of a prime to be considered here.
4) Bowen. Man, you don't know how much I hated him back then (and Horry too btw). Nontheless, I always felt like he got too much recognition for the Spurs' defense when 80% of it was based on Duncan (at least from 2002). I'll probably post more about this when we are debating TD.
5) MWP was also a bit of a surprise but negative in his case. Anyway, his RAPM numbers the eye-test are good enough not to be worried about his selection at #2.
6) Kawhi is penalized by the fact that his prime is shorter than the 5 seasons thresold I've put. I expect the numbers to represent his value much better after this season.

So who's left? Havlicek! I'm gonna vote for him despite not having the best case to justify it. He certainly was praised by his contemporaries and it is certainly possible he would've won the DPOY, had it been handed out in his time.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#33 » by iggymcfrack » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:28 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
In 2016, LeBron was second among all wing players in DRPM trailing only Kawhi with a +3.30. That was better than Kawhi had in DRPM any season except for ‘15 or ‘16. Furthermore, it was built on the single best defensive performance by a wing player in the history of the NBA Finals. I think you’re really selling LeBron short to say he stopped being elite defensively in 2013.

Why use DRPM when there’s DRAPM? This source below has Lebron as a 1.38, trailing lots of perimeter players.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2015-16/regular-season/



It's worth noting that's RS-only RAPM. Data-sets which included consideration of the '16 playoffs had Lebron's full-season PI DRAPM as +2.74 in '16 (behind only Kawhi and Danny Green among perimeter players), and +2.89 NPI DRAPM (behind only Tony Snell and Kawhi among perimeter players).


Yeah, I’m not crazy about single season RAPM that only uses regular season or playoffs. The sample is too small to really get good data. What site do you use to get PI RAPM including both RS and PS after 2013 trex?
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#34 » by trex_8063 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:04 pm

Don't want to overstep (not my project), but I also want to keep things moving, and since OP has requested my help in the past, I'm going to jump in and tally this one up....

Andre Iguodala - 4?? (Dr Positivity, lebron3-14-3, trex_8063, GusFring???)
Kawhi Leonard - 4??? (KnickFan33, hype_2004, SinceGatlingWasARookie, No-more-ring???)
John Havlicek - 3 (pandrade83, kendogg, Bounce_9)
Shane Battier - 2 (iggymcfrack, Ainosterhaspie)
Bruce Bowen - 2 (penbeast0, cecilthesheep)
Andrei Kirilenko - 1 (Luigi)


***Regarding "???", some of you are REALLY not making it clear (especially No-more-rings) whether you're casting a vote or not. Again, please state clearly your vote in bolded letters.

Anyway, we're at about 60 hours on this thread, so based on these results I'm pushing it to runoff between Iggy and Kawhi.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#35 » by bledredwine » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:29 pm

trex_8063 wrote:I'm taking a closer look at Luol Deng, and I think he's someone who perhaps deserves some consideration fairly soon, too.

EDIT: Also looking at Shawn Marion, Gerald Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince. All arguably names we shouldn't be sleeping on for too much longer (although I'm skeptical on Prince).


As someone who watched his whole career unfold, Lu has always been a great, solid, and smart defender. However, he was never quite as good as Jimmy is now. He was never a game-trajectory impact sort of defender. That said, he did well limiting his matchups and making plays when needed.
:o LeBron is 0-7 in game winning/tying FGs in the finals. And is 20/116 or 17% in game winning/tying FGs in the 4th/OT for his career. That's historically bad :o
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - RUNOFF Kawhi vs Iggy 

Post#36 » by Ainosterhaspie » Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:36 pm

Iguodala gets my runoff vote.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - RUNOFF Kawhi vs Iggy 

Post#37 » by PistolPeteJR » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:09 pm

I'm going with Battier. Hard for me between him and Iggy, but he was such a specialist on D, and was really, really smart on that end.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - RUNOFF Kawhi vs Iggy 

Post#38 » by trex_8063 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:34 pm

PistolPeteJR wrote:I'm going with Battier. Hard for me between him and Iggy, but he was such a specialist on D, and was really, really smart on that end.


We're already in runoff between Iggy and Kawhi.
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cecilthesheep
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - RUNOFF Kawhi vs Iggy 

Post#39 » by cecilthesheep » Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:40 pm

Between Kawhi and Iggy, I vote Kawhi.
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Re: #4 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - RUNOFF Kawhi vs Iggy 

Post#40 » by Hawk » Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:54 pm

Kawhi for me. I would put him at #2 or #3 at worst.

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