skywalker33 wrote:The Rebel wrote:skywalker33 wrote:
To be fair, Juancho was shooting 1 for 7 when I wrote that and he was coming off that 2 for 10 performance vs
MIL. I don’t have hate for Juancho , but I do take umbridge with all the Juancho-is-the-savior fans. I only clamor for consistency from Juancho which has not happened
You expect consistency from a 3rd year player that basically missed his 2nd season? That is this entire team's issue, not a single one is consistent, I wish they were.
I have not seen many saying that Juancho is the savior, mostly what I see is the truth in that if Lyles is not the future starter he needs to be moved and
Juancho can eat up those minutes while we find the long term starter.
The way Millsap has been playing, I can easily see 2-3 more years as our starter allowing us time to find/develop a PFOTF. Why does Lyles have to become a starter ? Robert Horry made a career of coming off the bench and they seem comparable player to me. I don't see why we can't keep Lyles off the bench, if he can develop into a starter, great, if not he's a good big off the bench. I'm not saying don't trade him IF you can get good value, especially considering what we gave up to get him (Mitchell). .
I don’t see Millsap lasting 3 years, in fact I think we would be lucky if he is a viable starter in 2 years. He is not the same player he was 2 years ago, and it is pretty clear when you watch him.
I think Lyles has a higher ceiling especially after injury issues Horry. I also think you dramatically underrate the demand for guys like Lyles. Advanced and per minutes stats put Lyles right there with Saric last year, and clearly better than him this year. Like not even close this year. Kuzma is not even close to that level of player and yet listen to the way he is talked about by experts.
Make no mistake Saric was considered the big piece in that Butler deal. I like Covington but he is nowhere near the value as other guys rumored to have been offered. Kuzma was considered untouchable by the Lakers with rumors that they were considering trading Ball.
Horry got an above MLE deal even after a bad injury plagued year back when he came off his rookie deal, and that was long before stretch 4s were an in thing.
Now how much do you think a guy who this year is clearly better than Saric and Kuzma is going to get when an injured not nearly as in demand position got more than the MLE. Now the question is how much more Lyles will command on the open market.
In 2016 when the MLE was $5.63 million
Marvin Williams got a 4 year $54.5 million deal
Meyers Leanard got a 4 year $41 million deal
Mirza Teletovic signed a 3 yr $31.5 million deal
Goergui Dieng signed for 4 yr $64 million
Jeff Green got 1 year for $15 million
Jared Dudley got 3 years $30 million
Ryan Anderson got 4 year $80 million.
I can easily argue Lyles right now against all of those guys outside of Anderson when they signed their deals. The next question is how many need starting PFs next summer. The Nets desperately need 1, the Hornets could really use a guy like Lyles, the Pacers need a spread 4, the Bucks, 76ers, Raptors, Rockets, Mavs, Clippers, Thunder, Suns, and Trailblazers. Out of those the Mavs, Hawks, Lakers, Suns, 76ers, Nets, Jazz, Pacers, and Clippers all have more than $24 million in projected cap space next year and it only takes 1 to believe that Lyles is the long term answer.
The MLE is set to be starting at just over $9 million, I do not see anyway that Lyles signs for less than a $15 million per year deal next year. That leaves the MLE to sign any additions to this team, and it means bringing back Millsap whether you want to or not.
Now if you are wondering why I am using the 2016 contracts, the answer is that there will be more cap space available next summer than there was in 2016.
skywalker33 wrote:And IMO, Juancho should be considered more than just a 2nd/3rd year player, his PT in International play has to be considered much as Jokic's did. While the mono year did impact him, he has had time to recover and play more consistently than a 2nd year player. And maybe I'm getting an incorrect inference with the underlined statement, but it seems you don't believe Juancho is more than a bench player yourself ?? He should be a superior backup, just as I see Lyles turning into, but still seems like a work in progress to me not the finished product YoungtheGiant seems to rant and rave about.
What? International play has not shown to transfer directly over to success in the NBA or guys progressing quicker. If anything history it has been shown that young international players take longer to adjust to the NBA. Jokic is lucky, partially due to his brother and Darko Milicic and partially because he has a naturally high BBIQ.
Also having mono last year meant that Juancho spent at least 2/3rds of the season away from the team. They could not have him in training or around the team at all just in case something got missed and someone else caught mono which is highly contagious, the rest of the time he was basically recovering. Now you can include that in time in the NBA, but as shown by the current ROY the league and media do not consider being out from the team to count for much.
Even still the only player we have close to consistent is Millsap, every one of the young players is very inconsistent, including Murray, Harris, and Jokic.
Long term I do not think that Juancho has the quickness to keep up with quicker small forwards, and I do not think he will have the strength to guard starting true bigs. Which renders him as the 5th starter or as a 6th man.
Long term I view Juancho as being a rich man’s Najera. Imagine Najera with the ability to dribble and shoot 3s at over 40%, that is a tremendously valuable player on a team but does not command the starters paycheck. Juancho does not have the handle to be a primary scorer, he is not big enough or quick enough to be a defensive specialist, but he does all the little things that help you win and makes defenses pay attention to him spreading the floor and outworking guys. He can easily spend 10-15 minutes at each forward slot depending on matchups as a starter or 6th man type.
Let’s look at things realistically, projected 6th man type bigs usually bring in MLE or slightly more, a year from now Juancho will likely be looking at a 4yr $48 million deal at best, because nobody with any sense will see him as a starting PF or starting SF. We have $71 million committed to 6 guys and our draft pick in 2020, Murray, Juancho, Beasley, and Craig will all be restricted free agents, Plumlee unrestricted, and if they opt into Millsap than he is also a free agent. So we have to look at what happens with the free agents this year. Lyles, Thomas, possibly Millsap, and Lydon are all free agents this year.
Now it looks like we have a long term replacement for Thomas right now in Morris, and Lydon is basically a 6th big that can easily be replaced.
So the question is what to do at PF with Lyles and Millsap. If you believe that Lyles is the long term starter then you sign him to a 4yr $40 million deal and opt out of Millsap’s deal. If you think Lyles is a long term backup than you have to bring back Millsap or replace him, The issue is that the most cap space you can get is $17.2 million is you renounce Millsap, Lydon, and Lyles. If you keep Lyles than the most you can get is $12 million and if you keep the rights on both Millsap and Lyles than you only get the taxpayer MLE. Meaning if you keep Lyles than you have to keep Millsap one way or another if you do not view him as a starter as you have no money to replace Millsap otherwise.
Bringing back Millsap for let’s say $20 million over each of the next 2 years (which will likely be his value on the market) and resigning Lyles to a deal starting at $14 million which I think is the low end would than put you at about $107 million in contracts for 10 guys. From there you have to extend Murray, which he is likely to get a max deal, which will start at $27 million or so, putting the salary cap at $134 million with a projected cap at $118 million and tax set at $143. Meaning that you will have $9 million under the tax to re-sign or replace Juancho, Beasley, Craig, and Plumlee. That is without adding a starting SF, that is without signing anybody but bringing back Millsap and Lyles.
That is the real issue with Lyles, if he is not a long term starter with this lineup, then you cannot bring him back as he will cost you a starting quality SF, a backup F, a backup C, and a 4th sg/sf without the money to replace them. Which means you are bringing in a taxpayer MLE type player and minimum contract guys for depth which destroys teams.
While I have said that I expect the front office to bring back Lyles, the fact of the matter is that I would prefer they didn’t. I would prefer that they do something like trade Lyles and filler such as Lydon for a guy who can be a long term starter at SF.
Let’s say you can get Boston to trade you Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris for Lyles and Lydon? Or Josh Jackson for Lyles? While to some it may sound crazy, it fits both of those teams and Lyles is playing well enough to justify those types of trades.
With Jokic and the other starters shooting so well than you really do not need a spread 4 to start. You need a guy who can defend and who can finish. Randle is going to be a free agent this summer, and I think he will get somewhere around the same type of contract that Lyles gets, a 3 or 4 year deal starting at $14-16 million. Signing Randle to start would also leave you the room MLE to sign Cancar bring him over and sign Welsh to a similar deal to the one Morris signed. I personally would much rather go into the 2019-2020 season with a lineup of
Murray/ Morris
Harris/Barton/ Beasley
Brown/ Porter JR/ Juancho/ Cancar
Randle/ Juancho/ Vanderbilt/ Cancar
Jokic/ Plumlee/ Welsh
That would give you $52 million under the tax limit while having 11 guys under contract, with Craig, Brown, Murray, Beasley, and Juancho as restricted free agents and Plumlee as an unrestricted FA. You can re-sign Murray to a deal starting at $27 million, sign Juancho to a deal starting at $10 million per, and you can split $15 million and the tax payer MLE between a replacement backup C, re-signing Beasley and Brown. Meaning in 2020 you still have the depth and only go into the tax if you feel you are ready.
Now if you get lucky and both Vanderbilt and MPJ get and stay healthy while being the players they were projected as in High school than we are okay either way, but I do not like betting on the health of Nuggets players.
Sorry for the long explanation, but maybe you can see why keeping Lyles is a bad idea if you do not see him as a long term starter.
TLDR: If you do not think that Lyles is a fit with our starters than keeping Lyles forces us to keep Millsap and will cost us Jamal Murray and Cancar or Juancho, Beasley, Cancar, and Plumlee. Trading Lyles for a young 4th or 5th starter type SF allows us $15+ million next summer to sign a starting PF, the room MLE to bring over Cancar, and keep the flexibility to keep the entire free agent class of 2020.
