Spoiler:
Spoiler:
Hypothetically, Kemba Walker's new full maximum deal to a non-bird rights team like us, ORL, would average out to 35.153 mil per year over the next 4 seasons.
And for comparison's sake, John Wall's current maximum deal (imagining him traded to ORL) would average out to 42.730 mil per year over the same next 4 seasons.
This is about a 7.6 mil difference annually. It does not seem like a big difference, but in strategies that involve using strictly cap space to add major piece(s), this is still a big difference. It also makes for an even worse discrepancy if Kemba is still highly effective at 32 years old compared to a what-if scenario of a rapidly declining, more expensive 32 years old John Wall. Although my money is on both still playing at high levels throughout their whole 4-year (or 5 yr) contracts.
Kemba Walker or John Wall or neither?
Spoiler:
Kemba Walker and John Wall are both 28 years old, with Kemba being only a few months younger. I think most of our board is in agreement that Kemba is the better of the pair based on our talk on him in the last year or so. Plus, he should theoretically age a little better than Wall with his better shooting.
That's not to discount Wall though, who has developed a strong 3 point threat at a fair percentage, goes top 3 in the league in passing and stealing, sometimes gets blocks numbers like a big, and has enough experience, skill, and strength to continue attacking the paint well into his 30's. Is he actually better than Kemba, overall?
Kemba brings the shooting and scoring that ORL desperately needs, and it's the kind of attention opposing defenses' fear that should let Kemba fit into the passing-oriented ORL system extremely well.
But maybe Wall's multi-faceted strengths and even better passing numbers are the exact kinds of scary-good things that a B.I.G. ORL team would thrive off of. What do you do if positions 1-5 are all capable of blocking your shot on one end, and then consistently put you through defending more cuts and passes than most other teams too?
Critically, both players are top 5-6 PGs in the league, and both of their playoffs' careers are strong as well.
However, perhaps in the end, ORL isn't really looking at either of these PGs. Both would command so much cap space (even if deservingly so), and both would be quite a few years older than our B.I.G.'s ages.
In fact, the windows of B.I.G. would have them just beginning their prime years while Kemba and Wall would be exiting theirs. That is crazy.
So maybe it would be better to have flexibility to add two max-type free agents at the same time down the road.
Maybe it would be better to continue adding young pieces that match the B.I.G.'s career timeline, finding the next young, impact star in the league while building up assets and flexibility.
There's also the all-too-real argument on what-if keeping Vucevic with some veterans like Fournier and Ross a little longer is better. They could all be cheaper than either PG. Vooch alone might even be impacting games more than either PG. What does the three teams' win-loss record say about this argument too?
That's not to discount Wall though, who has developed a strong 3 point threat at a fair percentage, goes top 3 in the league in passing and stealing, sometimes gets blocks numbers like a big, and has enough experience, skill, and strength to continue attacking the paint well into his 30's. Is he actually better than Kemba, overall?
Kemba brings the shooting and scoring that ORL desperately needs, and it's the kind of attention opposing defenses' fear that should let Kemba fit into the passing-oriented ORL system extremely well.
But maybe Wall's multi-faceted strengths and even better passing numbers are the exact kinds of scary-good things that a B.I.G. ORL team would thrive off of. What do you do if positions 1-5 are all capable of blocking your shot on one end, and then consistently put you through defending more cuts and passes than most other teams too?
Critically, both players are top 5-6 PGs in the league, and both of their playoffs' careers are strong as well.
However, perhaps in the end, ORL isn't really looking at either of these PGs. Both would command so much cap space (even if deservingly so), and both would be quite a few years older than our B.I.G.'s ages.
In fact, the windows of B.I.G. would have them just beginning their prime years while Kemba and Wall would be exiting theirs. That is crazy.
So maybe it would be better to have flexibility to add two max-type free agents at the same time down the road.
Maybe it would be better to continue adding young pieces that match the B.I.G.'s career timeline, finding the next young, impact star in the league while building up assets and flexibility.
There's also the all-too-real argument on what-if keeping Vucevic with some veterans like Fournier and Ross a little longer is better. They could all be cheaper than either PG. Vooch alone might even be impacting games more than either PG. What does the three teams' win-loss record say about this argument too?
Kemba Walker in ORL?
Spoiler:
The Magic would easily be able to offer Kemba a 22 mil first year deal in case the free agency market is wary of paying him the highest possible amount of a 32 mil first year deal (which becomes a 37 mil in the last year of a 30+ year old guard). Let's not think of this way-too-lucky scenario much though.
If the Magic stretch-waive Mozgov's contract over three seasons, however, then they can also rather easily afford Kemba's full max deal starting at 32 mil in the first year. Easy-peasy, done deal.
And as for continuing to add around Kemba and B.I.G. in future seasons and summers, you could read the summer breakdowns below with John Wall (in place of Kemba), but make sure to add about that 7.6 mil of additional cap space to each summer's estimated cap space available. This does not seem to add up to a maximum cap space amount available in most of the summers, but it is quite possibly close enough to attract such an All Star level player. And the 7.6 mil annual difference between Kemba and Wall stands out greatly in any strategies strictly involving cap space use.
Finally, there is a big what-if on what happens if ORL acquires Kemba via trade or SnT (acquiring his bird rights). This could then allow Kemba to make more than his 35.153 mil average, and would likely put him closer in line to how ORL would be able to operate in the summers during Wall's 4 year deal. This might be the "more-than-happy-to-pay" cost of acquiring a top 15 player in the league though, and a top 4-5 PG.
If the Magic stretch-waive Mozgov's contract over three seasons, however, then they can also rather easily afford Kemba's full max deal starting at 32 mil in the first year. Easy-peasy, done deal.
And as for continuing to add around Kemba and B.I.G. in future seasons and summers, you could read the summer breakdowns below with John Wall (in place of Kemba), but make sure to add about that 7.6 mil of additional cap space to each summer's estimated cap space available. This does not seem to add up to a maximum cap space amount available in most of the summers, but it is quite possibly close enough to attract such an All Star level player. And the 7.6 mil annual difference between Kemba and Wall stands out greatly in any strategies strictly involving cap space use.
Finally, there is a big what-if on what happens if ORL acquires Kemba via trade or SnT (acquiring his bird rights). This could then allow Kemba to make more than his 35.153 mil average, and would likely put him closer in line to how ORL would be able to operate in the summers during Wall's 4 year deal. This might be the "more-than-happy-to-pay" cost of acquiring a top 15 player in the league though, and a top 4-5 PG.
John Wall in ORL?
Spoiler:
2019 Summer:
If the Magic traded for John Wall, that would be their "Kemba Walker" free agency acquisition, taking up all of this next summer's cap space just as adding Kemba would have done. Keep in mind, the Magic have jumped over the possibility of not landing a "Kemba Walker" type acquisition by adding a locked-in John Wall thru trade beforehand.
2020 Summer:
In the following summer (the summer before the 2020-2021 season), after Wall's first year in ORL, the Magic would have about 18 mil in cap space with John Wall, B.I.G., and Evan Fournier (accepting his PO of 17.00 mil).
On a side note, perhaps/hopefully ORL used their full bird rights to have kept Vucevic and Ross for one more year in town, but in this summer, they're likely let go.
18 mil cap space sounds close to max money for another All Star acquisition, but in 2020-2021, it's likely not close enough for an All Star level player. BUT, this means that if ORL could free agency commitment, then they could actually make that max cap space (or virtually close enough) by having a predetermined Evan Fournier deal that deals him off for mostly cap space. In this scenario, Evan would also be in his last year, and having always been an above-average starting SG it would be an easy trade deal to find. One that might even net an asset like a 1st round pick with a lot of cap space.
2021 Summer:
In the summer before the 2021-2022 season, the Magic would be sitting at around 83 mil in cap commitments between Wall, Gordon, Bamba, and low-cost contracts (below around 2.4 mil on average) for the remaining required roster spaces.
This doesn't include Isaac because now is where I have to make some best-guess projections.
Isaac, as a RFA, would make about 20 mil in a hometown extension, and the other best-guess projection, the team salary cap amount would be set to around 124 mil.
This projects ORL having, then, around 22 mil in cap space with Wall, B.I.G., and a supporting cast of rookie-scaled players and low-cost veterans. This is not enough for another All Star max signing, but there is a lot of wriggle room in maybe getting Isaac's first year amount lower, and my cap space amount of 124 mil being too low. There's a chance between those two, and ORL really going minimum on all other team spaces, they could have around 28 mil in cap space. Sadly, this cap space is harder to reach than in the previous 2020-2021 summer, and it again leaves ORL with mainly Wall and B.I.G. (as now there is no Fournier, Vooch, or T. Ross). Although, hopefully, a second All Star and a ton of internal improvement within B.I.G.
2022 Summer:
In the last summer, before the 2022-2023 season, and the last season before Wall's deal is expired, the amount of best-guess projections is basically too high. Not only would we have to continue with our guess of Isaac's new extension (which would probably be 8% higher this year), but also guess Aaron's new deal with ORL, and also guess Bamba's first extension/matched year. Of course, we could imagine not retaining one or more of the three, but in this scenario, I'm imagining great things from them and a core set around B.I.G. Theoretically, I imagine a summer much like the previous one, where the Magic are a little bit hard-pressed to find the outright maximum cap space to sign a second All Star.
*Quick Note: Wall's TK is not factored into any of the produced ORL cap space figures. It is paid by WAS, and for ORL, it will only affect the initial cap value cost of trading for Wall's contract, such as which contracts ORL will need to send out to match close enough to Wall's "contract at TK value".
Opinion Summary:
In sum, this gives ORL 1 specific summer (the 2020 summer, 2 summers away from now, and after Wall's first (partial) year in ORL), although maybe 2, out of the 4 summers with John Wall's max contract to have the outright ability to add yet another maximum cap space-type acquisition alongside Wall and B.I.G.
Although this view is a little pessimistic (1 out of 4 summers only?), there is still interestingly a ton of room for ORL to continue adding young pieces and an easy ability to have a moderate amount of cap space for most summers if wanted (to around 20 mil) during Wall's contract. If ORL hits nicely (or big) on mid/late 1st round picks, and keeps making excellent free agency contracts (like they did with AG, Simmons, and their short-term contracts), perhaps re-sign quality vets to 1 year deals or fair/good deals within Wall's same contract window (like Fournier, Vooch, or others), they could easily become a team loaded with youth, promise, and attractive, trade-able assets. Even living out Wall's 4-year deal could be much less scarier than thought, as all of B.I.G. would actually just be beginning their prime years as Wall exits his. If, and a big if, the B.I.G.'s next contracts don't kill all their cap space, than they could easily return to more salary-flexible years again as well, for the hunt of 1-2 maximum free agent contracts. Or ORL could just simply continue their trade, draft, and sign smart approach to maintain a team of attractive assets as the method to continue adding pieces (and dare I say, trade for their All Stars instead of making the summer cap space for them).
If the Magic traded for John Wall, that would be their "Kemba Walker" free agency acquisition, taking up all of this next summer's cap space just as adding Kemba would have done. Keep in mind, the Magic have jumped over the possibility of not landing a "Kemba Walker" type acquisition by adding a locked-in John Wall thru trade beforehand.
2020 Summer:
In the following summer (the summer before the 2020-2021 season), after Wall's first year in ORL, the Magic would have about 18 mil in cap space with John Wall, B.I.G., and Evan Fournier (accepting his PO of 17.00 mil).
On a side note, perhaps/hopefully ORL used their full bird rights to have kept Vucevic and Ross for one more year in town, but in this summer, they're likely let go.
18 mil cap space sounds close to max money for another All Star acquisition, but in 2020-2021, it's likely not close enough for an All Star level player. BUT, this means that if ORL could free agency commitment, then they could actually make that max cap space (or virtually close enough) by having a predetermined Evan Fournier deal that deals him off for mostly cap space. In this scenario, Evan would also be in his last year, and having always been an above-average starting SG it would be an easy trade deal to find. One that might even net an asset like a 1st round pick with a lot of cap space.
2021 Summer:
In the summer before the 2021-2022 season, the Magic would be sitting at around 83 mil in cap commitments between Wall, Gordon, Bamba, and low-cost contracts (below around 2.4 mil on average) for the remaining required roster spaces.
This doesn't include Isaac because now is where I have to make some best-guess projections.
Isaac, as a RFA, would make about 20 mil in a hometown extension, and the other best-guess projection, the team salary cap amount would be set to around 124 mil.
This projects ORL having, then, around 22 mil in cap space with Wall, B.I.G., and a supporting cast of rookie-scaled players and low-cost veterans. This is not enough for another All Star max signing, but there is a lot of wriggle room in maybe getting Isaac's first year amount lower, and my cap space amount of 124 mil being too low. There's a chance between those two, and ORL really going minimum on all other team spaces, they could have around 28 mil in cap space. Sadly, this cap space is harder to reach than in the previous 2020-2021 summer, and it again leaves ORL with mainly Wall and B.I.G. (as now there is no Fournier, Vooch, or T. Ross). Although, hopefully, a second All Star and a ton of internal improvement within B.I.G.
2022 Summer:
In the last summer, before the 2022-2023 season, and the last season before Wall's deal is expired, the amount of best-guess projections is basically too high. Not only would we have to continue with our guess of Isaac's new extension (which would probably be 8% higher this year), but also guess Aaron's new deal with ORL, and also guess Bamba's first extension/matched year. Of course, we could imagine not retaining one or more of the three, but in this scenario, I'm imagining great things from them and a core set around B.I.G. Theoretically, I imagine a summer much like the previous one, where the Magic are a little bit hard-pressed to find the outright maximum cap space to sign a second All Star.
*Quick Note: Wall's TK is not factored into any of the produced ORL cap space figures. It is paid by WAS, and for ORL, it will only affect the initial cap value cost of trading for Wall's contract, such as which contracts ORL will need to send out to match close enough to Wall's "contract at TK value".
Opinion Summary:
In sum, this gives ORL 1 specific summer (the 2020 summer, 2 summers away from now, and after Wall's first (partial) year in ORL), although maybe 2, out of the 4 summers with John Wall's max contract to have the outright ability to add yet another maximum cap space-type acquisition alongside Wall and B.I.G.
Although this view is a little pessimistic (1 out of 4 summers only?), there is still interestingly a ton of room for ORL to continue adding young pieces and an easy ability to have a moderate amount of cap space for most summers if wanted (to around 20 mil) during Wall's contract. If ORL hits nicely (or big) on mid/late 1st round picks, and keeps making excellent free agency contracts (like they did with AG, Simmons, and their short-term contracts), perhaps re-sign quality vets to 1 year deals or fair/good deals within Wall's same contract window (like Fournier, Vooch, or others), they could easily become a team loaded with youth, promise, and attractive, trade-able assets. Even living out Wall's 4-year deal could be much less scarier than thought, as all of B.I.G. would actually just be beginning their prime years as Wall exits his. If, and a big if, the B.I.G.'s next contracts don't kill all their cap space, than they could easily return to more salary-flexible years again as well, for the hunt of 1-2 maximum free agent contracts. Or ORL could just simply continue their trade, draft, and sign smart approach to maintain a team of attractive assets as the method to continue adding pieces (and dare I say, trade for their All Stars instead of making the summer cap space for them).
So where do you stand on these two players? Which one fits better with our roster? How would you add more pieces around the core of one of these two top-5 PG's and our B.I.G. in future seasons?
