#7 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project

[Gibson22]

Havlicek won.
1. Jason Kidd
2. Walt Frazier
3. Gary Payton
4. Dennis Johnson
5. Jerry West
6. John Stockton
7. Chris Paul
8. Mookie Blaylock
9. Nate McMillan
10. Mo Cheeks

Shooting Guards:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Tony Allen
4. Michael Cooper
5. Alvin Robertson
6. Eddie Jones
7. Jerry Sloan
8. Joe Dumars
9. Danny Green
10. Don Chaney

Small Forwards:


1. Scottie Pippen
2. Ron Artest
3. Lebron James
4. Andre Iguodala
5. Shane Battier
6. John Havlicek


And this is where it started
Idea


THE CANDIDATES

Tom Sanders (1961-73) Celtics
Joe Caldwell (1965-1975) Pistons, St.Louis Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, Carolina Cougars, Spirits of St.Louis
Willie Wise (1970-78) Los Angeles Stars, Utah Stars, Virginia Squires, Denver Nuggets, Seattle
Bob Dandridge (1970-82) Bucks, Bullets
Julius Erving (1972-87) Virginia Squires, New York Nets, 76ers
Jamaal Wilkes (1975-86) Warriors, Lakers, Clippers
Bill Hanzlik (1981-90) Seattle, Nuggets
Paul Pressey (1983-93) Bucks, Spurs, Warriors
Rodney McCray (1984-93) Houston, Sacramento, Dallas, Bulls
Derrick McKey (1988-2002) Seattle, Indiana, 76ers
Rick Fox (1992-04) Celtics, Lakers
George Lynch (1994-05) Lakers, Vancouver Grizzlies, 76ers, Hornets
Grant Hill (1995-13) Detroit, Magic, Suns, Clippers
Bruce Bowen (1997-2009) Heat, Celtics, 76ers, Spurs
Posey (2000-11) Nuggets, Rockets, Grizzlies, Heat, Boston, Hornets, Pacers
Marion (2000-15) Suns, Heat, Toronto, Dallas, Cleveland
Stephen Jackson (2001-14) Nets, Spurs, Hawks, Pacers, Warriors, Charlotte, Bucks, Spurs, Clippers
Andrei Kirilenko (2002-15) Jazz, Minnesota, Nets
Gerald Wallace (2002-15) Sacramento, Charlotte, Blazers, Nets, Celtics
Tayshaun Prince (2003-16) Detroit, Grizzlies, Celtics, Minnesota
Luol Deng (2005-19+) Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat, Lakers, Minnesota
Paul George (2011-19+) Pacers, OKC
Kawhi Leonard (2012-19+) Spurs, Raptors
Robert Covington (2014-19+) 76ers




Hi guys

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[Dr Positivity]

Vote Luol Deng

Best combination of DRAPM, size, intangibles/motor and longevity. He helped great Bulls defensive eras with Skiles and Thibs

[trex_8063]

Once again going to present some ranked and concise multi-modal stat/data/info comparisons for most of the top candidates for this spot plus a few of the guys recently voted in (colored), as well as several other persons of interest (some of whom perhaps should be among the primary candidates): Covington, Gerald Wallace, ***Paul George (***new addition since last thread), Tayshaun Prince, Bob Dandridge. For DVOR figures I've used the defensive splits of Estimated Impact for Hondo and Dandridge (likely less reliable than DRAPM, but any port in a storm for these older players).
Use this info [or not] as you wish......

All-Defensive Honors "Points" (awarding 1.5 pts for 1st Team selection, 1.0 for 2nd Team)
John Havlicek - 10.5 (*All-D honors only awarded his final 10 seasons)
Bruce Bowen - 10.5
Kawhi Leonard - 5.5
Tayshaun Prince - 4.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 3.5
Paul George - 3.5
Andre Iguodala - 2.5
Shane Battier - 2.0
Robert Covington - 1.5
Gerald Wallace - 1.5
Bob Dandridge - 1.5
Luol Deng - 1.0
Shawn Marion - 0!

DPOY Shares
Kawhi Leonard - 1.736 (2x winner)
Bruce Bowen - 1.514
Shane Battier - 0.548
Andrei Kirilenko - 0.366
Shawn Marion - 0.341
Gerald Wallace - 0.274
Andre Iguodala - 0.265
Paul George - 0.217
Tayshaun Prince - 0.112
Luol Deng - 0.082
Robert Covington - 0.024
**DPOY not awarded in Havlicek's and Dandridge’s career

Career DBPM (not including '19)
Andrei Kirilenko - +3.5
Kawhi Leonard - +2.7
Gerald Wallace - +2.3
Shawn Marion - +2.1
Shane Battier - +1.9
Bruce Bowen - +1.8
Andre Iguodala - +1.6
Paul George - +1.2
Robert Covington - +1.0
Luol Deng - +0.7
Tayshaun Prince - +0.2
*John Havlicek - +0.1 (*only available his final five seasons)
*Bob Dandridge - +0.1 (*not available his first four seasons)

Career DWS (not including '19)
John Havlicek - 74.1
Shawn Marion - 61.3
Andre Iguodala - 44.1
Luol Deng - 38.9
Shane Battier - 35.3
Gerald Wallace - 35.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 34.7
Bruce Bowen - 33.5
Bob Dandridge - 33.0
Paul George - 29.8
Tayshaun Prince - 28.0
Kawhi Leonard - 24.7
Robert Covington - 12.1

Defensive Value Over Replacement Level [-0.75] as measured by DRAPM (Defensive Estimated Impact for Havlicek)
CAREER Defensive Value Over Replacement
Andre Iguodala - 94,380.5
Luol Deng - 77,700.0
John Havlicek - 74,340.75
Shane Battier - 73,682.5
Shawn Marion - 66,215.6
Gerald Wallace - 63,032.0
Bruce Bowen - 51,345.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 40,306.35
Paul George - 39,813.7
Bob Dandridge - 32,717.5
Kawhi Leonard - 29,493.5
Tayshaun Prince - 26,136.7
Robert Covington - 25,349.9

Average Defensive Value Over Replacement PER SEASON
Andre Iguodala - 6,741.5
Shane Battier - 5,667.9
Luol Deng - 5,550.0
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Paul George - 4,976.7
John Havlicek - 4,646.3
Gerald Wallace - 4,502.3
Bruce Bowen - 4,278.8
Kawhi Leonard - 4,213.4
Shawn Marion - 4,138.5
Andrei Kirilenko - 3,100.5
Bob Dandridge - 2,516.7
Tayshaun Prince - 1,866.9

Best 5-years Averaged
Shane Battier - 10,586.0
Luol Deng - 9,658.2
Andre Iguodala - 9,456.6
Gerald Wallace - 8,470.9
Shawn Marion - 7,869.2
Paul George - 7,530.1
John Havlicek - 6,440.8
Bruce Bowen - 6,280.9
Kawhi Leonard - 6,031.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 5,612.9
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Tayshaun Prince - 4,917.2
Bob Dandridge - 4,219.1

Best Single-Season VOR
Luol Deng - 14,917.2
Shane Battier - 14,053.05
Paul George - 13,522.6
Shawn Marion - 12,713.65
Robert Covington - 12,254.9
Andre Iguodala - 11,810.75
Kawhi Leonard - 10,805.2
Gerald Wallace - 10,760.55
Bruce Bowen - 7,711.2
Tayshaun Prince - 7,677.9
John Havlicek - 7,239.05
Andrei Kirilenko - 6,639.95
Bob Dandridge - 4,991.0

[iggymcfrack]

Gotta go Luol Deng at this point. Best career and average DRPM numbers. One of those guys that’s easy to underrate now that he’s in the “bad contract” stage of his career even though he was an excellent lockdown defender only a few years ago.

[trex_8063]

I think I'm mostly between Deng and Bowen for this spot. They seem like the two most well-rounded candidates in terms of full career defensive value. Shawn Marion perhaps not too far behind, then probably one of Kawhi, Kirilenko, or Gerald Wallace for me.

[PigsOnTheWing]

Updating my data with a few notable defenders. Players still in the list are bolded. I remind everyone that this values are points saved on the defensive end for both career, 5-year prime and peak.

CAREER:
#1 Pippen 2499.7
#2 James 2294.9
#3 Marion 2281.4
#4 Iguodala 1855.8
#5 Kirilenko 1651.1
#6 Artest 1628.2
#7 Battier 1621.6
#8 Erving 1620.8
#9 Wallace 1443.0
#10 Bowen 1355.3
#11 Deng 1385.4
#12 Pressey 1052.4
#13 Prince 951.0
#10 Leonard 925.6

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Pippen 1108.5
#2 Marion 1081.5
#3 James 1007.2
#4 Erving 926.7
#5 Kirilenko 913.9
#6 Battier 888.1
#7 Wallace 839.1
#8 Leonard 829.2
#9 Bowen 813.1
#10 Iguodala 809.3
#11 Artest 752.9
#12 Pressey 734.6
#13 Deng 718.3
#14 Prince 589.5

PEAK:
#1 Pippen 256.9 (1995)
#2 Marion 248.0 (2001)
#3 James 243.6 (2009)
#4 Kirilenko 239.5 (2004)
#5 Leonard 226.2 (2016)
#6 Erving 224.1 (1981)
#7 Wallace 217.7 (2010)
#8 Battier 209.1 (2007)
#9 Pressey 202.8 (1986)
#10 Iguodala 183.5 (2005) (His rookie year!)
#11 Bowen 182.5 (2004)
#12 Deng 169.9 (2011)
#13 Artest 168.9 (2004)
#14 Prince 152.4 (2005)

Here some notes I wrote in thread #4:
1) I didn't include Havlicek because there are too many years where we don't have all the metrics available to make this an apples-to-apples comparison. Fwiw, in the EI dataset he rates fairly well (it must also be noted that, probably due to the lack of information, the EI values for pre-1974 years are closer to 0 than they are post-1974, for example Russell is merely a +4 on D while with normal data he'd be more like +6/6.5)
2) Marion comes out suprisingly well. I don't remember him as some defensive savant, he was that kind of guy that is really good at everything but not elite in anything. He has the optimal combination of steals and blocks to be rated well by DBPM and I suppose also by DPIPM and DEI. Despite his versatility, his on/off data isn't that great: he is especially poor in on/off efg%, as he was often in the low 20s percentiles for his entire career, suggesting he wasn't that lockdown defender some of the other candidates were (and it's also not how I remember him for). The incredible amount of 0 defensive awards and selections also may confirm this theory.
3) Kirilenko appears to have been the best of them all when he was available from 2004 to 2007. Unfortunately for him, it's a limited time and he wasn't injury-free in those years neither. I feel he has too short of a prime to be considered here.
4) Bowen. Man, you don't know how much I hated him back then (and Horry too btw). Nontheless, I always felt like he got too much recognition for the Spurs' defense when 80% of it was based on Duncan (at least from 2002). I'll probably post more about this when we are debating TD.
5) MWP was also a bit of a surprise but negative in his case. Anyway, his RAPM numbers the eye-test are good enough not to be worried about his selection at #2.
6) Kawhi is penalized by the fact that his prime is shorter than the 5 seasons thresold I've put. I expect the numbers to represent his value much better after this season.

Ultimately, Shawn Marion leads the table in each timespan I evaluated, therefore I vote for the Matrix. Also, keep an eye on Dr. J who, despite the data is NBA only, is rated quite highly.

[Samurai]

Repeating my vote for Bruce Bowen.

[penbeast0]

Marion should be coming up soon. Sort of like Pippen in that he was a great help defender despite being a forward, but as Bounce said, not a guy I remember as a shutdown man defender. Kirilenko probably the best help defender but just doesn't have the long consistent career of Marion, similar to Leonard in that.

Still, the guy I'd want at the defensive end is Mr. Dirty, Bruce Bowen. Yes, everyone loved to hate him and he had Duncan behind him so it was more difficult to take him down low but he was a nasty challenge to everyone he played and did it for a long consistent career .

[cecilthesheep]

Bruce Bowen, with the biggest reason being the way he absolutely tanked Kobe's efficiency.

[Gibson22]

I vote for marion

[Gibson22]

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[HurricaneKid]

I always have a difficult time with longevity vs peak and based on results it certainly appears most are giving more credence to longevity but AK47 and Kawhi have by far the best peaks of anyone left, and even higher than several of those who ranked higher. Its almost certainly too early to put him in but I vote Kawhi. Because if we are getting to the point where we are voting for Matrix whose positional flexibility was great but whose m2m was little more than average and was nowhere near the impact of Kawhi, I will take the guy who made grade schoolers out of many a guard.

Kawhi.

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[kendogg]

I'm biased against Bowen since he's IMO far dirtier than other players who have been called dirty like John Stockton or someone like that. Him and Draymond get no respect from me with their plays that have clear intent to injure. Also I know this is a defensive list, but I have less respect for defensive specialists who can exert pretty much 100% of their energy on defense. Or at least, I give some leeway for the more offensive players in this regard.

So I'm going Shawn Marion. It was between him, Deng and Kirilenko for me. Also starting to consider Kawhi despite my concerns over his durability and how young his career is.

If it was ABA/NBA combined, I'd include Dr J as well in my considerations at this point. I think his defense is actually underrated around here. His steals and blocks numbers clearly only tell part of the story of Dr J's defense. He didn't have as many big step up moments as say Jordan who is another athletic freak wing player, and he got labeled as coasting on defense more than Jordan did during the regular season, he was never a poor defender and at times doing things defensively that no other player in the league could do.

[trex_8063]

Once again going to present some ranked and concise multi-modal stat/data/info comparisons for most of the top candidates for this spot plus a few of the guys recently voted in (colored), as well as several other persons of interest (some of whom perhaps should be among the primary candidates): Covington, Gerald Wallace, ***Paul George (***new addition since last thread), Tayshaun Prince, Bob Dandridge. For DVOR figures I've used the defensive splits of Estimated Impact for Hondo and Dandridge (likely less reliable than DRAPM, but any port in a storm for these older players).
Use this info [or not] as you wish......

All-Defensive Honors "Points" (awarding 1.5 pts for 1st Team selection, 1.0 for 2nd Team)
John Havlicek - 10.5 (*All-D honors only awarded his final 10 seasons)
Bruce Bowen - 10.5
Kawhi Leonard - 5.5
Tayshaun Prince - 4.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 3.5
Paul George - 3.5
Andre Iguodala - 2.5
Shane Battier - 2.0
Robert Covington - 1.5
Gerald Wallace - 1.5
Bob Dandridge - 1.5
Luol Deng - 1.0
Shawn Marion - 0!

DPOY Shares
Kawhi Leonard - 1.736 (2x winner)
Bruce Bowen - 1.514
Shane Battier - 0.548
Andrei Kirilenko - 0.366
Shawn Marion - 0.341
Gerald Wallace - 0.274
Andre Iguodala - 0.265
Paul George - 0.217
Tayshaun Prince - 0.112
Luol Deng - 0.082
Robert Covington - 0.024
**DPOY not awarded in Havlicek's and Dandridge’s career

Career DBPM (not including '19)
Andrei Kirilenko - +3.5
Kawhi Leonard - +2.7
Gerald Wallace - +2.3
Shawn Marion - +2.1
Shane Battier - +1.9
Bruce Bowen - +1.8
Andre Iguodala - +1.6
Paul George - +1.2
Robert Covington - +1.0
Luol Deng - +0.7
Tayshaun Prince - +0.2
*John Havlicek - +0.1 (*only available his final five seasons)
*Bob Dandridge - +0.1 (*not available his first four seasons)

Career DWS (not including '19)
John Havlicek - 74.1
Shawn Marion - 61.3
Andre Iguodala - 44.1
Luol Deng - 38.9
Shane Battier - 35.3
Gerald Wallace - 35.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 34.7
Bruce Bowen - 33.5
Bob Dandridge - 33.0
Paul George - 29.8
Tayshaun Prince - 28.0
Kawhi Leonard - 24.7
Robert Covington - 12.1

Defensive Value Over Replacement Level [-0.75] as measured by DRAPM (Defensive Estimated Impact for Havlicek)
CAREER Defensive Value Over Replacement
Andre Iguodala - 94,380.5
Luol Deng - 77,700.0
John Havlicek - 74,340.75
Shane Battier - 73,682.5
Shawn Marion - 66,215.6
Gerald Wallace - 63,032.0
Bruce Bowen - 51,345.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 40,306.35
Paul George - 39,813.7
Bob Dandridge - 32,717.5
Kawhi Leonard - 29,493.5
Tayshaun Prince - 26,136.7
Robert Covington - 25,349.9

Average Defensive Value Over Replacement PER SEASON
Andre Iguodala - 6,741.5
Shane Battier - 5,667.9
Luol Deng - 5,550.0
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Paul George - 4,976.7
John Havlicek - 4,646.3
Gerald Wallace - 4,502.3
Bruce Bowen - 4,278.8
Kawhi Leonard - 4,213.4
Shawn Marion - 4,138.5
Andrei Kirilenko - 3,100.5
Bob Dandridge - 2,516.7
Tayshaun Prince - 1,866.9

Best 5-years Averaged
Shane Battier - 10,586.0
Luol Deng - 9,658.2
Andre Iguodala - 9,456.6
Gerald Wallace - 8,470.9
Shawn Marion - 7,869.2
Paul George - 7,530.1
John Havlicek - 6,440.8
Bruce Bowen - 6,280.9
Kawhi Leonard - 6,031.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 5,612.9
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Tayshaun Prince - 4,917.2
Bob Dandridge - 4,219.1

Best Single-Season VOR
Luol Deng - 14,917.2
Shane Battier - 14,053.05
Paul George - 13,522.6
Shawn Marion - 12,713.65
Robert Covington - 12,254.9
Andre Iguodala - 11,810.75
Kawhi Leonard - 10,805.2
Gerald Wallace - 10,760.55
Bruce Bowen - 7,711.2
Tayshaun Prince - 7,677.9
John Havlicek - 7,239.05
Andrei Kirilenko - 6,639.95
Bob Dandridge - 4,991.0

I'm adding a couple new means by which to scrutinize the impact data (DRAPM). Although I've provided peak season DVOR and best 5-year avg DVOR, it's all based upon minutes played......which I thought perhaps overly penalizes minor durability issues, as well as perhaps lower minute players. Take Kawhi for example: is it really that big of a deal if he misses 10 or 16 rs games? Arguably, arguably not; but he'll take a hit for it in my above methodology.

So I'm adding in two new categories:
1) Taking their five best seasons by raw DRAPM (defensive Estimated Impact for Hondo and Dandridge), and averaging them (no weighting for minutes or games played in each season, though must have played at least 500 minutes in a given season for it to be used). This hopefully provides a better look at their per minute/possession impact when on the court thru their best five defensive years.
2) Taking their five best seasons in DVOR, and dividing it by the total number of games played in those years (again must be 500 minute minimum). This should better illuminate average DVOR per game thru their five best defensive seasons.

Going with best 5-year samples, as we're still talking about career defensive value; so a one-year peak or even a best 3-year sample is just too small, imo.

Best 5-Year DRAPM Avg
Shane Battier: +3.18
Andre Iguodala: +3.00
Luol Deng: +2.54
Gerald Wallace: +2.54
Andrei Kirilenko: +2.200
Bruce Bowen: +2.198
Shawn Marion: +2.16
Robert Covington: +2.07* (*only four seasons with 500+ minutes)
Kawhi Leonard: +2.06
Paul George: +1.92
John Havlicek: +1.40
Tayshaun Prince: +1.13
Bob Dandridge: +0.76

Avg DVOR Per Game in Best 5 years
Shane Battier: 138.20
Luol Deng: 128.43
Andre Iguodala: 128.14
Gerald Wallace: 121.36
Shawn Marion: 107.21
Paul George: 94.84
Andrei Kirilenko: 91.42
Kawhi Leonard: 90.30
Robert Covington: 89.16* (*only four seasons with 500+ minutes)
John Havlicek: 79.52
Bruce Bowen: 76.78
Tayshaun Prince: 60.86
Bob Dandridge: 55.81

[trex_8063]

I'm really very torn between Deng and Bowen. Every way I tease apart the DRAPM data [see above], Deng comes out looking fantastic and superior to Bowen (superior to any SF not already voted in, in fact).

Bowen's career per 100 poss defensive avg's are 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks, 4.4 DRebs; Deng's are 1.5/0.7/6.7.

From the limited number I've looked at, Bowen's H2H key match-ups look better than Deng's (that is: he appears to hinder the apposing wing more than Deng).

Bowen's got somewhat more impressive box-derived defensive metrics (DBPM, rDRTG, etc), and much more by way of reputation and accolades. And if I'm being honest, he perhaps looked a marginally superior to Deng at the time to my eye as well.

otoh, there are a number of elite defenses that Deng appears to be a pretty key piece of. Yes, there was Joakim Noah (or before him an aging Ben Wallace) in the middle, and often another elite defensive wing (Sefolosha, Ronnie Brewer) getting some minutes.......however, there were also some relatively mediocre defensive perimeter players getting major minutes (Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon), as well as a number of years with Carlos Boozer (an awful defensive player) at PF. And they still logged elite defensive ratings pretty much year after year (under two different coaches, too: even before Thibs, they had some elite defenses under Scott Skiles).

In '11, Noah missed 34 games (and this is with Boozer on the team, too)......they still logged a -7.0 rDRTG with Deng as [seemingly] the primary anchor, along with limited minutes from good defensive players such as Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson, and an ancient Kurt Thomas.


idk, this is tough for me. But I guess I'm going to throw in with Luol Deng as my pick here.

[Luigi]

Ak, Bowen, and Leonard should round out the list here.

I'll vote AK.

[Gibson22]

Bowen, deng, marion 3
kawhi, kirilenko 1

[Gibson22]

So It's a runoff between bowen, deng and marion.
It will last for 12 hours.
If you already voted for one of them, you can't vote again

[Gibson22]

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[HurricaneKid]

Bowen for me.

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