2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[3toheadmelo]

i watch both suns and mavs games and i think ayton has the lead right now in ROY imo. doncic is really good though, can't hate on how he's been playing so far. hes been living up to the hype

[nolang1]

Has anybody ever actually put together anything substantial on RPM favoring bigs? By my eye it slants DRPM towards them, but ORPM away (and some hits and misses there, but overall a decent idea).

A lot of the apparent bias comes from fouls. A dominant offensive big like Embiid draws a lot of non-shooting fouls, which helps his team even when he's not in the game by putting them in the bonus for longer stretches and forcing opposing players (most often bigs who tend to be the most important defenders) who are in foul trouble to play less aggressively. Then you can say the opposite for any big who's considered good at defense but racks up a lot of fouls in a short time, making his team worse by forcing his replacements to spend a larger proportion of their minutes defending while the other team's in the bonus.

The other thing is that people tend to lump 'defense' into one category when there are a lot of attributes at play. When people lambaste Enes Kanter or whoever for being a bad rim protector, the subtext is that by virtue of being as tall as he is, Kanter is one of one of a relatively small number of players who has some chance at providing that valuable skill in the first place. He still does a much better job of it than someone like Steph Curry could be expected to do, and the same could be said of skills like defensive rebounding and post defense.

[nolang1]

I don't think I'd use Memphis's improved record as proof of anything JJJ. He is good and is a huge help some games, but that improvement is 98% Conley being back and healthy. JJJ also gets some love in the first quarter offensively and then nothing is run for him really the rest of the game as the grizzlies offense shifts more and more to Conley/Gasol PnR and features that almost exclusively late in the game. He has to create himself or try for a rebound. That isn't always the case, but that seems to be the usual game flow. That is on him to get more involved and JB/Conley/team to get him more opportunities.

Yeah in the 206 minutes Jackson has played without Gasol the Grizzlies have a -19 net rating. Break it down further to 109 minutes with Jackson + Conley but no Gasol and it's still -14. The main takeaway from Memphis' start so far should be that Gasol is deserving of a lot more MVP consideration than he's currently getting.

[The-Power]

As far as Luka goes watch a Dallas game. When he's on the floor they aren't good. That bench is insane.

This is looking at raw plus-minus without context. Yes, the Mavericks with Doncic on the floor are merely average (+0.3 net rating) and his on/off is -6.3. A look at the other players, however, suggests that these Doncic' numbers are dragged down by the starting players around him.

Jordan's on/off is -14.2 (-2.6 on-court net rating). Finney-Smith -7.7 (-1.2), Matthews -8.0 (-1.7), Smith -16.8 (-6.0) and Barnes -13.8 (-4.7). I mean, it's pretty obvious that some of these guys are more likely to be the problem that makes the bench look so good, and the numbers of Doncic rather unimpressive.

RPM and RAPM take context into account and place Doncic more accurately. He has not yet have great impact by general standards, but pretty impressive impact for a Rookie his age and with his responsibilities (minutes, usage, ball handling duties).

Meanwhile Ayton has been more or less what I expected. He came into a league and immediately made an impact on offense. This is what physically developed bigs with a solid touch and this kind of frame and/or athleticism can do. Yet I suspect that with his profile, he is going to have a hard time becoming a really good offensive player – i.e. I believe his offensive impact will always be positive but somewhat limited, that's just how it is with most bigs who aren't elite shooters and/or playmakers with great ball handling skills for their size.

On defense, he is what we expect. A non-factor most of the time, with some good sequences and a lot of rather bad ones. Once again, RPM/RAPM is able to adjust for context to some extent even though the offensive and defensive splits for RPM tend to be terrible presumably due to the factor height. Ayton has been absolutely solid for the Suns, and a legitimately good Rookie, but there's nothing to suggest that he's somehow far ahead of the field.

[Bob8]

i watch both suns and mavs games and i think ayton has the lead right now in ROY imo. doncic is really good though, can't hate on how he's been playing so far. hes been living up to the hype

luckily realgm users won’t decide, who ROY is, because we would have multiple winners. funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment. that can change of course in the future. saying that Ayton is in clear lead, is somewhat unreasonable though.

[mcmurphy]

Ayton has a -5.8 on court rating. When he's off the court Phoenix has a -18.5 rating. If that's not impact I don't know what is.

No, the Off stat don't measure the impact
Before 31 october the off court of Ayton was -25.3... after the 31 october -6.2... so what is changed?
The sub, before Chandler after Holmes.

and the Mavs starting 5 is the 2nd worst in the league next to Washington.

the Mavs starting is the 2nd worst in the league because of DSJ and Barnes (both NetRtg <-6) not because of Luka (best of starters with NetRtg = +0.8)

There's a whole other 43 minutes in the game though. Doncic can score extremely well and is a great rookie but he's not the reason they're winning so much. That bench is. They wouldn't be in it for Luka to close out the games if the bench didn't keep them in it.

The NetRtg of Doncic is +0.8, Ayton has -4.4... more of 5 points of difference

[BlueSan]

Can we please just stop with the + / - we all know its an additional handy tool but there it ends..

Watch the player and you know if he is good or not, forget the stat padding

[The-Power]

Watch the player and you know if he is good or not, forget the stat padding

The introduction of some advanced stats has gone a long way to understand impact better, most notably through the consideration of efficiency. When you just ‘watch’ a player, you can and will get many things wrong when it comes to impact – not only because you don't always know what to look for but because you simply cannot process all the context of games properly, there's way too much going on during a basketball game. Not to mention that you often don't know what impact certain actions have in the grand scheme of things even if you can track them.

History is full of players who have been underappreciated or overrated because of our incapability of reliably and accurately assess players without the help of certain metrics. This is not to say that these metrics are the be-all and end-all; far from it. But to say that you simply have to watch them to understand their impact is either incredibly naive or incredibly cocky.

Moreover, with this approach there is not going to be much of a sensible exchange to be had. You need reliable numbers to have any kind of a semi-objective discussion through substantiated arguments. If everybody just relies on their eyes and keeps only referencing their observations without backing them up whatsoever then we're screwed when it comes to fostering honest and fruitful discussions. First, because you can hardly compare all these players because you can't possibly have scouted all of them in-depth. Second, because everybody would just stick to their initial point due to the lack of objective foundation. So no, let's not ‘just watch’ these players to evaluate them – let's watch them plus look at the relevant metrics, contextualize them and compare these players on some sort of common ground.

Lastly, either you misunderstand plus-minus metrics or you misuse the term ‘stat-padding’ because this term and the very concept of plus-minus metrics don't go together – you can't just pad your stats (plus-minus numbers).

[Bob8]

Watch the player and you know if he is good or not, forget the stat padding

The introduction of some advanced stats has gone a long way to understand impact better, most notably through the consideration of efficiency. When you just ‘watch’ a player, you can and will get many things wrong when it comes to impact – not only because you don't always know what to look for but because you simply cannot process all the context of games properly, there's way too much going on during a basketball game. Not to mention that you often don't know what impact certain actions have in the grand scheme of things even if you can track them.

History is full of players who have been underappreciated or overrated because of our incapability of reliably and accurately assess players without the help of certain metrics. This is not to say that these metrics are the be-all and end-all; far from it. But to say that you simply have to watch them to understand their impact is either incredibly naive or incredibly cocky.

Moreover, with this approach there is not going to be much of a sensible exchange to be had. You need reliable numbers to have any kind of a semi-objective discussion through substantiated arguments. If everybody just relies on their eyes and keeps only referencing their observations without backing them up whatsoever then we're screwed when it comes to fostering honest and fruitful discussions. First, because you can hardly compare all these players because you can't possibly have scouted all of them in-depth. Second, because everybody would just stick to their initial point due to the lack of objective foundation. So no, let's not ‘just watch’ these players to evaluate them – let's watch them plus look at the relevant metrics, contextualize them and compare these players on some sort of common ground.

Lastly, either you misunderstand plus-minus metrics or you misuse the term ‘stat-padding’ because this term and the very concept of plus-minus metrics don't go together – you can't just pad your stats (plus-minus numbers).

All that is true, but that would have worked only, if all people in the debate had understood all this advanced stats. Unfortunately even people, who talk about them, not all, but many, don’t have a clue. In that case “just watch” these players is better, than just watch the stats, which you don’t understand anyway. I kinda don’t believe that in general forum that debate is possible, because there are some specialists like you and a mass, who just see - or + and don’t understand the context.

[3toheadmelo]

i watch both suns and mavs games and i think ayton has the lead right now in ROY imo. doncic is really good though, can't hate on how he's been playing so far. hes been living up to the hype

luckily realgm users won’t decide, who ROY is, because we would have multiple winners. funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment. that can change of course in the future. saying that Ayton is in clear lead, is somewhat unreasonable though.

funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment.

that's the first time i heard that. i've seen PLENTY of people saying ayton is ROY. im not sure why you act surprised every time someone says he's ROY either.

i think ayton has the lead but it's close. like i been saying for a while.. i think ROY is gonna go down to the wire. both are great rookies.

[Bob8]

i watch both suns and mavs games and i think ayton has the lead right now in ROY imo. doncic is really good though, can't hate on how he's been playing so far. hes been living up to the hype

luckily realgm users won’t decide, who ROY is, because we would have multiple winners. funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment. that can change of course in the future. saying that Ayton is in clear lead, is somewhat unreasonable though.

funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment.

that's the first time i heard that. i've seen PLENTY of people saying ayton is ROY. im not sure why you act surprised every time someone says he's ROY either.

i think ayton has the lead but it's close. like i been saying for a while.. i think ROY is gonna go down to the wire. both are great rookies.

you better look at some rankings like, https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-rookie-power-rankings-trae-youngs-shooting-still-an-issue-when-should-hawks-start-to-worry/ and bookies odds.

[3toheadmelo]

luckily realgm users won’t decide, who ROY is, because we would have multiple winners. funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment. that can change of course in the future. saying that Ayton is in clear lead, is somewhat unreasonable though.

funny that almost everyone outside, bookies included, has Luka first at the moment.

that's the first time i heard that. i've seen PLENTY of people saying ayton is ROY. im not sure why you act surprised every time someone says he's ROY either.

i think ayton has the lead but it's close. like i been saying for a while.. i think ROY is gonna go down to the wire. both are great rookies.

you better look at some rankings like, https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-rookie-power-rankings-trae-youngs-shooting-still-an-issue-when-should-hawks-start-to-worry/ and bookies odds.

i think you should fam. i can play the same game

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

so clearly doncic is not running away with ROY like you claim he is. it's closer than you think. i rest my case

[agentofatlas]

Gotta ask, why are knick fans so invested in Ayton as ROY?

[Bob8]

I said almost everyone. I especially liked links from Arizona. Nevermind. We won’t come closer.

[3toheadmelo]

Gotta ask, why are knick fans so invested in Ayton as ROY?

it’s just me lol. I’ve been a big fan of ayton for a while

[AdagioPace]

I love the role Doncic is having in this Dallas reinassance. A +1 for me that gives a slight edge to him in my opinion. He knows the game, he can execute what Carlisle asks, you can build something "around" him. He's started to give you those "anchor" vibes. Ayton is more NBA ready physically, he's more efficient which as a rookie playing for a bad team might look more impressive.
I feel like Doncic would benefit even more by playing with better teammates. He just knows how to fit, contribute and raise the team's projected expectations.

[E-Balla]

Gotta ask, why are knick fans so invested in Ayton as ROY?

Not invested. He's impressive. Ask around I was big on Bagley at #1 overall. Was always soft to me on both ends but so far he's playing tough offensively.

If I was invested I wouldn't have dropped it. I'm not here to argue with people that act like they forget what basic words mean because someone said Luka wasn't the GOAT.

[Milk]

Watch on YouTube

[City of Trees]

DOWN GOES AYTON

Read on Twitter

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app

[Pachinko_]

A big man trips while backpedalling, shocking