Spoiler:
A lot of people here have been really excited about Bradley Beal trade ideas. So I've been making various versions of them in the past few days, and this ended up being the best one that warranted a posting.
Note that, per Woj, WAS was hoping to use their promising Porter and Oubre wings to land a 3rd star like Kawhi or Butler, so their preference was clearly to keep Wall and Beal, and perhaps even Beal the most out of the three. I think one thing WAS is seeing tho, is that Beal has only 2 more years remaining before UFA, and he is not very happy with the organization already. And if WAS were to trade off Wall, the basketball pieces might not likely be better. They're also stuck staring down not just taxpaying bills, but the repeat taxpayer bill next season as well, with no cap space in any realistic scenario played out until possibly the summer before Beal's last contract year. It's not a lot of room to maneuver. And it's one of the most expensive rosters in the league. WAS has not been getting the wins each season they were expecting, nor advancing (or making) into the playoffs as was expected. Beal may not be giving WAS the win-loss results it hoped. But he would net them the most assets, for that complete re-shape of the team into something new.
"Best offer" -
Spoiler:
1st trade:
Ian Mahinmi
for
Terrence Ross, Khem Birch
2nd trade:
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-3 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Legality:
ORL could not combine all of these outgoing players in one big trade for the incoming WAS players. That trade would of had to be performed as one single aggregating simultaneous trade, and even with the 125% plus 100 rule, ORL would not match the salary needed for this to be a legal trade.
So after a couple of hours on some possible work-arounds for it, the best one in the end was to separate the trade into two. By doing so, ORL could take advantage of the non-taxpaying trade bracket of 6.5-19.6 range salaries plus 5 rule and increase WAS's cap savings even further. This makes a first aggregating simultaneous trade of Terrence Ross and Khem Birch for Ian Mahinmi legal. The second trade of Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, and Jarell Martin for Okaro White and Bradley Beal would also then be legal under the 125% plus 100 rule as another aggregating simultaneous trade, and would still keep ORL under the tax level too. The draft picks traded also follow the Stepian rule and CBA protection rules. One final note is that WAS may need to waive a player(s) beforehand to make the trade legal.
Trade Notes:
Why for WAS?
Of course, it would start with the far-off 2022 ORL 1st with low protections. Put simply, it would be a huge piece. And to come away with possibly two 1st round picks and three 2nd round picks is a very big haul for just one player (Beal).
Secondly, Evan Fournier would be an awfully close Bradley Beal-type replacement player as well, especially as his percentages regress back to his mean. And Fournier would be a SG that is about 8-10 mil cheaper per year than Beal would for WAS, be less of a health risk than Beal has been, and is only eight months older than Beal.
Last season, Terrence Ross was possibly our best perimeter defender and hustle player. So far this season, his offense has been spectacular as well now, and he has been a heavy 6th Man of the Year candidate around the league to this point. I also wouldn't count out Khem Birch as a great Mahinmi replacement too. He's always been fantastic in his short stints, and ORL is notorious for burying good C's on the bench. It's entirely plausible then, that in the end, WAS walks out of this deal as a better (or similar) basketball team WITH 5-6 draft picks added.
Thirdly, the last huge puzzle piece to this trade deal is that WAS would reap absolutely massive cap savings here. This is critical to jumpstarting a re-shape of the team. And it would include adding youth and potential to the team through the bevy of draft picks added too.
All the incoming ORL players would expire this summer, minus Fournier, who is only owed 17 mil for two more seasons. With the expirings, Terrence Ross' bird rights would be especially valuable for WAS to be holding in the summer as well (whether it's for SnT for an asset, or for re-signing a 6th Man). Consider that the outgoing Ian Mahinmi is owed about 15.5 mil in one of those two 17 mil seasons that Fournier is owed as well. Would you rather have Mahinmi for 15.5, or Fournier for 17? That only leaves WAS on the hook then for Fournier's last PO year, an expiring 17 mil, if Fournier takes his PO.
The total cap savings for WAS in the end then?
- 8.71 mil cap savings this season, for team salary of 122.82 mil, taken out of taxpaying status
- 25.54 mil cap savings next season, for a team salary that it is taken off the edge from what was maybe being a taxpayer again before
- 11.751* mil cap savings 2 seasons from now, *could be 28.751 mil cap savings if Fournier takes his PO into free agency
WAS's cap savings here are very understated from these already eye-popping numbers though. Firstly, with this deal, WAS puts itself under the taxpayer level this year. This means that WAS is actually being saved somewhere around 20 mil in money this season alone. But secondly, and also equally important, if WAS doesn't get out of the tax level this year, they become labeled as "repeat taxpayers" for next season (for having been taxpayers in 3 of the past 4 seasons). This puts WAS in a bind to basically either try to fill out the last 5-7 spots on their roster with minimum salary players which would hopefully keep them out of the tax, or force them to pay/re-sign for a more balanced roster that comes with a massive "repeat taxpayer" bill. Thirdly, this deal would not only offer some serious tax relief, but it also gives WAS some serious cap space again too, cap space that could be much better spent than on Ian Mahinmi's 15+ mil contract!
In summary, WAS all of a sudden is in the driver seat of realizing two paths.
One, Wall is still worth most of his contract, so now with all of this cap space and picks, let's build around him and youth like Porter, Oubre, and these new picks.
Or two, WAS can maximize their savings by letting their players expire and by waiting for Wall's TK to expire this summer to trade him for as much cap savings and picks as possible too. This leaves WAS with a very advantageous rebuild around Porter and Oubre, loaded with cap space and draft picks.
Why for ORL?
Despite the flurry of draft picks lost, ORL had a couple draft picks in the war chest to spare. The 2023 2nd pick is also a swap, leaving ORL with a 2nd somewhere in that draft. This was as a good time as any then to use them towards acquiring a star player like Bradley Beal. The big costs then, were ORL walking out of the deal with no 2nd round pick in 2021, and no 1st round pick in 2022. There's still some late 1st's and early 2nd's that could up being a player ORL very sadly missed out on, but there is only one real pick lost that could have been a lottery pick.
And that potentially 2022 lottery 1st is sacrificed because I didn't want Beal's 2.5 years in ORL to be without any lost 1st rounders as well. I also did this because I do believe ORL's record might not change too much right away with Beal. ORL thus really needs those two summers to have two nice lotto/mid 1st's to add around their new "B.B.I.G." core.
To avoid any more lottery picks though, the one big thing I managed to do with this trade was to keep Vooch (I tried my hardest to keep Ross too, but sadly couldn't legally), because he would be an important basketball piece to producing wins with Beal and B.I.G. And with the way ORL's salary books are, it would not hurt at all to resign Vooch for 1 more year as well, and very probably for 2 more years as well. Maybe a highly competitive two year extension or contract offer for our Vooch?
What Beal gets in ORL is the undisputed keys to the offense (alongside Vooch), and a first-hand look at what B.I.G. can do for him on defense and offense (well, especially on defense). We're talking Beal putting up around 24 PPG, becoming a perennial All Star, and gaining chemistry with B.I.G. There's also a lot of low expectations with so many youngsters surrounding the 25 year old Beal (and only a couple of other vets like Vooch). This means that if Clifford can somehow pull ORL into the playoffs, they look all the more exciting to the city, the league, free agents, and the media for the future.
For that future, ORL would start to have large amounts of cap space and cap flexibility just before Beal's last contract year (when D.J., Mahinmi, and Mozgov (and maybe Vooch) all expire in the summer of 2020). With ORL happily paying Beal the max, they could also add another max free agent to the young team. Dare I say, perhaps a trade makes this happen even earlier as well?
So what could that 2020 summer look like then (when Mahinmi and Mozgov expire)? Well, that's the summer of Anthony Davis as the headliner, and ORL would have space for him.
Another possibility? Using Mahinmi and Mozgov with an ORL 1st and 2nd to acquire a SnT max free agent this (2019) summer instead.
And the 2021 summer? Well, that's an extremely interesting summer. It's the summer of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. ORL would easily have space for either. In fact, ORL would also make the space for all three max free agents (Giannis, Beal, and Lillard) if they traded either one of AG or J.I. as well. That is, if they'd be worth losing one of AG or J.I. for.
ORL's lineup for now though?
D.J. Augustin
Bradley Beal
Aaron Gordon
Jonathan Isaac
Nikola Vucevic / Mo Bamba
Personal Remark:
I called this first idea the "Best Offer" from ORL's side (mainly because it's the best of the three ideas I posted here). Many know here that I tend to post trade ideas that are way too kind to the other teams. I posted these trade ideas in the past (and here too) to show that the trade idea is not some one-sidingly biased scheme by a Magic fan, and also to show that ORL could very well make a serious offer if wanted, one that would make sense to both sides to some degree. In no way do I have any clue whatsoever on what ORL is thinking or what they would really offer, nor do I have any experience outside of the endlessly entertaining hobby of "realGM'ing" that we all love and share here (altho some law school background and a little math helped too).
Ian Mahinmi
for
Terrence Ross, Khem Birch
2nd trade:
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-3 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Legality:
ORL could not combine all of these outgoing players in one big trade for the incoming WAS players. That trade would of had to be performed as one single aggregating simultaneous trade, and even with the 125% plus 100 rule, ORL would not match the salary needed for this to be a legal trade.
So after a couple of hours on some possible work-arounds for it, the best one in the end was to separate the trade into two. By doing so, ORL could take advantage of the non-taxpaying trade bracket of 6.5-19.6 range salaries plus 5 rule and increase WAS's cap savings even further. This makes a first aggregating simultaneous trade of Terrence Ross and Khem Birch for Ian Mahinmi legal. The second trade of Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, and Jarell Martin for Okaro White and Bradley Beal would also then be legal under the 125% plus 100 rule as another aggregating simultaneous trade, and would still keep ORL under the tax level too. The draft picks traded also follow the Stepian rule and CBA protection rules. One final note is that WAS may need to waive a player(s) beforehand to make the trade legal.
Trade Notes:
Why for WAS?
Of course, it would start with the far-off 2022 ORL 1st with low protections. Put simply, it would be a huge piece. And to come away with possibly two 1st round picks and three 2nd round picks is a very big haul for just one player (Beal).
Secondly, Evan Fournier would be an awfully close Bradley Beal-type replacement player as well, especially as his percentages regress back to his mean. And Fournier would be a SG that is about 8-10 mil cheaper per year than Beal would for WAS, be less of a health risk than Beal has been, and is only eight months older than Beal.
Last season, Terrence Ross was possibly our best perimeter defender and hustle player. So far this season, his offense has been spectacular as well now, and he has been a heavy 6th Man of the Year candidate around the league to this point. I also wouldn't count out Khem Birch as a great Mahinmi replacement too. He's always been fantastic in his short stints, and ORL is notorious for burying good C's on the bench. It's entirely plausible then, that in the end, WAS walks out of this deal as a better (or similar) basketball team WITH 5-6 draft picks added.
Thirdly, the last huge puzzle piece to this trade deal is that WAS would reap absolutely massive cap savings here. This is critical to jumpstarting a re-shape of the team. And it would include adding youth and potential to the team through the bevy of draft picks added too.
All the incoming ORL players would expire this summer, minus Fournier, who is only owed 17 mil for two more seasons. With the expirings, Terrence Ross' bird rights would be especially valuable for WAS to be holding in the summer as well (whether it's for SnT for an asset, or for re-signing a 6th Man). Consider that the outgoing Ian Mahinmi is owed about 15.5 mil in one of those two 17 mil seasons that Fournier is owed as well. Would you rather have Mahinmi for 15.5, or Fournier for 17? That only leaves WAS on the hook then for Fournier's last PO year, an expiring 17 mil, if Fournier takes his PO.
The total cap savings for WAS in the end then?
- 8.71 mil cap savings this season, for team salary of 122.82 mil, taken out of taxpaying status
- 25.54 mil cap savings next season, for a team salary that it is taken off the edge from what was maybe being a taxpayer again before
- 11.751* mil cap savings 2 seasons from now, *could be 28.751 mil cap savings if Fournier takes his PO into free agency
WAS's cap savings here are very understated from these already eye-popping numbers though. Firstly, with this deal, WAS puts itself under the taxpayer level this year. This means that WAS is actually being saved somewhere around 20 mil in money this season alone. But secondly, and also equally important, if WAS doesn't get out of the tax level this year, they become labeled as "repeat taxpayers" for next season (for having been taxpayers in 3 of the past 4 seasons). This puts WAS in a bind to basically either try to fill out the last 5-7 spots on their roster with minimum salary players which would hopefully keep them out of the tax, or force them to pay/re-sign for a more balanced roster that comes with a massive "repeat taxpayer" bill. Thirdly, this deal would not only offer some serious tax relief, but it also gives WAS some serious cap space again too, cap space that could be much better spent than on Ian Mahinmi's 15+ mil contract!
In summary, WAS all of a sudden is in the driver seat of realizing two paths.
One, Wall is still worth most of his contract, so now with all of this cap space and picks, let's build around him and youth like Porter, Oubre, and these new picks.
Or two, WAS can maximize their savings by letting their players expire and by waiting for Wall's TK to expire this summer to trade him for as much cap savings and picks as possible too. This leaves WAS with a very advantageous rebuild around Porter and Oubre, loaded with cap space and draft picks.
Why for ORL?
Despite the flurry of draft picks lost, ORL had a couple draft picks in the war chest to spare. The 2023 2nd pick is also a swap, leaving ORL with a 2nd somewhere in that draft. This was as a good time as any then to use them towards acquiring a star player like Bradley Beal. The big costs then, were ORL walking out of the deal with no 2nd round pick in 2021, and no 1st round pick in 2022. There's still some late 1st's and early 2nd's that could up being a player ORL very sadly missed out on, but there is only one real pick lost that could have been a lottery pick.
And that potentially 2022 lottery 1st is sacrificed because I didn't want Beal's 2.5 years in ORL to be without any lost 1st rounders as well. I also did this because I do believe ORL's record might not change too much right away with Beal. ORL thus really needs those two summers to have two nice lotto/mid 1st's to add around their new "B.B.I.G." core.
To avoid any more lottery picks though, the one big thing I managed to do with this trade was to keep Vooch (I tried my hardest to keep Ross too, but sadly couldn't legally), because he would be an important basketball piece to producing wins with Beal and B.I.G. And with the way ORL's salary books are, it would not hurt at all to resign Vooch for 1 more year as well, and very probably for 2 more years as well. Maybe a highly competitive two year extension or contract offer for our Vooch?
What Beal gets in ORL is the undisputed keys to the offense (alongside Vooch), and a first-hand look at what B.I.G. can do for him on defense and offense (well, especially on defense). We're talking Beal putting up around 24 PPG, becoming a perennial All Star, and gaining chemistry with B.I.G. There's also a lot of low expectations with so many youngsters surrounding the 25 year old Beal (and only a couple of other vets like Vooch). This means that if Clifford can somehow pull ORL into the playoffs, they look all the more exciting to the city, the league, free agents, and the media for the future.
For that future, ORL would start to have large amounts of cap space and cap flexibility just before Beal's last contract year (when D.J., Mahinmi, and Mozgov (and maybe Vooch) all expire in the summer of 2020). With ORL happily paying Beal the max, they could also add another max free agent to the young team. Dare I say, perhaps a trade makes this happen even earlier as well?
So what could that 2020 summer look like then (when Mahinmi and Mozgov expire)? Well, that's the summer of Anthony Davis as the headliner, and ORL would have space for him.
Another possibility? Using Mahinmi and Mozgov with an ORL 1st and 2nd to acquire a SnT max free agent this (2019) summer instead.
And the 2021 summer? Well, that's an extremely interesting summer. It's the summer of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. ORL would easily have space for either. In fact, ORL would also make the space for all three max free agents (Giannis, Beal, and Lillard) if they traded either one of AG or J.I. as well. That is, if they'd be worth losing one of AG or J.I. for.
ORL's lineup for now though?
D.J. Augustin
Bradley Beal
Aaron Gordon
Jonathan Isaac
Nikola Vucevic / Mo Bamba
Personal Remark:
I called this first idea the "Best Offer" from ORL's side (mainly because it's the best of the three ideas I posted here). Many know here that I tend to post trade ideas that are way too kind to the other teams. I posted these trade ideas in the past (and here too) to show that the trade idea is not some one-sidingly biased scheme by a Magic fan, and also to show that ORL could very well make a serious offer if wanted, one that would make sense to both sides to some degree. In no way do I have any clue whatsoever on what ORL is thinking or what they would really offer, nor do I have any experience outside of the endlessly entertaining hobby of "realGM'ing" that we all love and share here (altho some law school background and a little math helped too).
"Variation #1" -
Spoiler:
1st trade:
Ian Mahinmi
for
D.J. Augustin, Jonathon Simmons
2nd trade:
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-3 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Notes:
Less basketball talent and money savings for WAS than the idea above. And ORL is on the phone trying to trade for a PG the next day already. (D.J. and Simmons for Mahinmi works legally under the 125% plus 100 rule, as an aggregating simultaneous trade)
Ian Mahinmi
for
D.J. Augustin, Jonathon Simmons
2nd trade:
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-3 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Notes:
Less basketball talent and money savings for WAS than the idea above. And ORL is on the phone trying to trade for a PG the next day already. (D.J. and Simmons for Mahinmi works legally under the 125% plus 100 rule, as an aggregating simultaneous trade)
"Variation #2" -
Spoiler:
Trade:
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-15 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Notes:
Less basketball talent and money savings for WAS than first idea above. Really big draft pick haul for WAS, but no potential lottery pick included. ORL is very happy to keep Terrence Ross, while still having D.J. Augustin and J. Simms too.
Personal Remark:
These previous two ideas are what I could possibly imagine would be ORL's line in the sand. Or rather, their real last, best offers.. Honestly, who am I kidding. I have no clue what would really be ORL's offer(s) for Beal, hah. It's mainly just some variations on the same framework. The first one is a slightly "watered down" framework to retain Terrence Ross with Nikola Vucevic in Orlando. That would be so huge. And the second one is even more watered down, it removes Mahinmi from the deal entirely, and changes the 2022 1st as well.
Okaro White, Bradley Beal
for
Evan Fournier, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin
2019 ORL 2nd (most favorable of ORL, CLE, HOU, and POR to WAS),
2020 OKC 1st (prot. 1-20, but if the 1st does not convey, conveys two unprot. OKC 2nds),
2021 ORL 2nd (unprot.),
2022 ORL 1st (prot. 1-15 until conveyed),
2023 ORL 2nd (swap option; most favorable of WAS and ORL to WAS, least favorable to ORL)
Trade Notes:
Less basketball talent and money savings for WAS than first idea above. Really big draft pick haul for WAS, but no potential lottery pick included. ORL is very happy to keep Terrence Ross, while still having D.J. Augustin and J. Simms too.
Personal Remark:
These previous two ideas are what I could possibly imagine would be ORL's line in the sand. Or rather, their real last, best offers.. Honestly, who am I kidding. I have no clue what would really be ORL's offer(s) for Beal, hah. It's mainly just some variations on the same framework. The first one is a slightly "watered down" framework to retain Terrence Ross with Nikola Vucevic in Orlando. That would be so huge. And the second one is even more watered down, it removes Mahinmi from the deal entirely, and changes the 2022 1st as well.
What do you guys think? Which of the three trade ideas should we do, what's your trade idea for Beal to ORL? I have seen some interesting ones already too.
All I know is it'd be awfully nice to have Bradley Beal in some Magic pinstripes..
