side note on Stanley

[thesack12]

Biggest factor nobody has touched on is age. He's basically the same age as Kennard.

Four years of league experience greatly downplays the age argument though. I can accept it for Brown still having a lot of potential even though he's 22yo - because he's in his first few months as a rookie. I mean Tim Duncan was a 22 yr old rookie and nobody said he was near a finished product. There is a steep learning curve than more of a plateau point no matter your rookie age really - by 4-5 years in you are who you are.

THIS, +1

The vast majority of prospects entering the league for many years now are less than 20 years old. People put Way to much stock into shear age, when it should be NBA experience that matters most when evaluating young players and projecting their future.

[thesack12]

Biggest factor nobody has touched on is age. He's basically the same age as Kennard.

Four years of league experience greatly downplays the age argument though. I can accept it for Brown still having a lot of potential even though he's 22yo - because he's in his first few months as a rookie. I mean Tim Duncan was a 22 yr old rookie and nobody said he was near a finished product. There is a steep learning curve than more of a plateau point no matter your rookie age really - by 4-5 years in you are who you are.

There is a pretty long list of guys who blossomed in years 4+. eg Ben Wallace came here in his 5th year and exploded. Steve Nash made the leap in year 5 as did chauncey and Lowry. Not saying SJ is going to follow that path, but some guys are late bloomers.

SJ's currently posting career highs across the board, so it doesn't look like he peaked in year 3. He's definitely shown enough flashes to keep GM's interested.

Those guys are definitely much more of the exception than the rule. And of those guys that make that list there are usually extenuating circumstances.

Ben Wallace went undrafted and rarely played before landing in Detroit. Jermaine O'neal never played before landing in Indiana. Chauncey Billups was passed around the league like a hot potato before signing with Detroit. Steve Nash grew up playing soccer and started playing basketball at an older age. Kyle Lowry was on his third team by the time he started to put things together. Jimmy Butler never really got a chance his first couple years until Derrick Rose went down.

[7r5ur]

He has had very good stretches before - even in his rookie season. I think it' a case of coming off the bench is less structured and he can just flow with the game better. Also his game obviously doesn't fit with Dre and Griffin - so we'll have to decide what to do with him in the off-season when he's an RFA. How much do we pay him, how much would we match on an offer sheet etc. Just because he isn't a fit as a starter here, other teams could look to pay him to start for them. Of course we have 60 more games to see what he really is, and this could be a hot streak and he ends up back in the crapper soon enough.

As long as he's shooting over 30% from 3 teams are absolutely going to look to sign him. He's not a starter. Issue is Winslow is a similar player caliber and he got a fat contract of 10m a year. That's a lot for Winslow! Stanley is going to be demanding that type of money at this rate. Might demand even more. NBA is full of fat contracts now.

I think Winslow's deal is 2 years plus a team option for the 3rd? That wouldn't be too bad for Stanley.

No way do you give him a 4-5 year deal.

[ChipButty]

Biggest factor nobody has touched on is age. He's basically the same age as Kennard.

Four years of league experience greatly downplays the age argument though. I can accept it for Brown still having a lot of potential even though he's 22yo - because he's in his first few months as a rookie. I mean Tim Duncan was a 22 yr old rookie and nobody said he was near a finished product. There is a steep learning curve than more of a plateau point no matter your rookie age really - by 4-5 years in you are who you are.

THIS, +1

The vast majority of prospects entering the league for many years now are less than 20 years old. People put Way to much stock into shear age, when it should be NBA experience that matters most when evaluating young players and projecting their future.

Maybe top 5 picks, but I think the average age of lottery picks is still slightly above 20. Age is definitely an important factor to consider. I believe the biggest improvements in skill/efficiency are typically seen before age 25 so I'd definitely be willing to slightly overpay a player younger than this based on potential and work ethic. Why do you think Pat Riley just paid Winslow?

There are lots of examples of players becoming very good players after 3-4 years. Derrick Favors comes to mind. I think the Morris twins were 21 or 22 when drafted and took a while to become a solid players. Marcus is having a great year. I was all for trading for Bradley, but we should have kept Marcus.

Bottom line, Stanley has plenty of room and time for improvement.

[thesack12]

Number of underclassmen/foreign lottery picks in each draft since 2010...

2010: 9
2011: 9
2012: 11
2013: 11
2014: 12
2015: 12
2016: 10
2017: 14
2018: 12

97 out of 126 lottery picks (77%) were either underclassmen or foreign born prospects (who are super young as well). I think that qualifies as the "vast majority."

Also, the most common denominator of the players who the light suddenly comes on for later in their careers is it usually happens after changing teams.

[Spider156]

He has had very good stretches before - even in his rookie season. I think it' a case of coming off the bench is less structured and he can just flow with the game better. Also his game obviously doesn't fit with Dre and Griffin - so we'll have to decide what to do with him in the off-season when he's an RFA. How much do we pay him, how much would we match on an offer sheet etc. Just because he isn't a fit as a starter here, other teams could look to pay him to start for them. Of course we have 60 more games to see what he really is, and this could be a hot streak and he ends up back in the crapper soon enough.

As long as he's shooting over 30% from 3 teams are absolutely going to look to sign him. He's not a starter. Issue is Winslow is a similar player caliber and he got a fat contract of 10m a year. That's a lot for Winslow! Stanley is going to be demanding that type of money at this rate. Might demand even more. NBA is full of fat contracts now.

I think Winslow's deal is 2 years plus a team option for the 3rd? That wouldn't be too bad for Stanley.

No way do you give him a 4-5 year deal.

Similar contract to Robinson. Who's playing better Robinson or Stanley? Both are young. Stanley is the better defender, Robinson better on offense. I wouldn't mind giving Stanley 8-10m. Not 10-12m. But if he keeps playing the way he has then we're looking at 12-15m lol Bullock is gonna get paid too. Players are getting extremely expensive. I'm excited to see all the fat contracts teams will give out next offseason. I wonder who will slip by and we can get for cheap.

[Spider156]

Number of underclassmen/foreign lottery picks in each draft since 2010...

2010: 9
2011: 9
2012: 11
2013: 11
2014: 12
2015: 12
2016: 10
2017: 14
2018: 12

97 out of 126 lottery picks (77%) were either underclassmen or foreign born prospects (who are super young as well). I think that qualifies as the "vast majority."

Also, the most common denominator of the players who the light suddenly comes on for later in their careers is it usually happens after changing teams.

That's why I want Wall. He'd become a superstar with us. Issue is his contract is SO toxic!!