Future of PG position (in MIN)

[minimus]

I always read with interest news about waived players, two-way contracts. Last read was:

The Boston Celtics have waived Walter Lemon Jr. Lemon was on a two-way contract with the Celtics. Lemon was averaging 23.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 36.6 minutes per game in the G League this season.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/251761/Celtics-Waive-Walter-Lemon-Jr-From-Two-Way-Contract

Question: why BOS even wanted to test 6-3, 180lb guard? They have all-star Kyrie who wants to re-sign, defensive juggernaut Smart on long-term contract AND Terry Rozier with expiring contract.

Context: in NBA we have seen many postions transformed in order to create more dynamic, more versatile lineups. For instance, Siakam-Kawhi-Green-OG is probably the best defensive wing combination in the league, and Thompson-KD-Green is the best defensive-offensive wing combination in the league. Thats some ridicolous level of talent, chemistry and experience for most team. Saying this, what is role of PG in current league?

First off all I think that we need to use term ballhandler more and PG less. So it is bigman-wing-wing-wing-ballhandler. For MIN and BOS, ballhandler == PG, since no player in Tatum-Brown-Hayward and Wiggins-Saric-RoCo combination has advanced ballhandling skills. Moreover, Wiggins, Brown, RoCo are very limited as ballhandlers.

So for BOS Kyrie is main decision maker/ballhandler, for us it is Teague/Rose/Tyus trio.

Analysis Our recent improvement as team in offense relies on success of Teague/Rose/Tyus as decision makers/ballhandlers. Which is way better than any result with Butler as ballhandler, because more ball movement, less ISO offense helps to involve all players, they give more effort in defense, they feel involved, engage.

This is result of combination of many factors (in order by importance):

+ Rose improvement as 3pt shooter (career high 48,6%)
+ Rose health ===>>> confidence ===>>> consistency ===>>> efficiency ===>>> controlled constant aggressiveness as slasher, scorer
+ Teague solid execution, AST/TO ratio (3.46)
+ Tyus phenomenal AST/TO ratio (6.3 !!!)
+ Tyus excellent defense (#1 in steals per foul)

As group they are a great balance of shooting, scoring, defense, decision making, passing. As single players they all have serious weaknesses.

- Rose health
- Teague inconsistency as slasher/decision maker. Teague also tends to miss games due to minor injuries
- Tyus shooting

Rose situation in particular is blessing in disguss, having MVP level talent playing as 6th man that is luxury that MIN team has never had in the past. Also Rose situation confirmed one thing. A more versatile lineups, and changed rules in NBA make fast, quick guards such as Rose almost unstoppable. That is why BOS roll dice with guys such as Walter Lemon Jr.

In less degree, but Tyus situation is also almost ideal for us, when an elite team defender plays with bench unit.

Problem The way our roster is constructed for next years we will be playing Wiggins-Saric-RoCo who cant play ballhandlers. It means that situation with ballhandler/PG position is critical for long term success. This is how might situation develop:

Best case scenario (0% chance):
Teague opts out, resigns with us on team friendly, long term deal. Tyus wont get an absurd offer sheet in FA market and re-signs with us for bargain deal. Rose stays healthy and re-signs with us for part of MLE.

Worst case scenario:
Teague opts out, signs with another team. Tyus gets an absurd offer sheet in FA market and we dont match. Rose is injured or decides to make championship run with another team.

Realistic case scenario:
Rose is bothered by minor injuries but re-signs with us for full MLE. Teague opts in. Tyus gets an absurd offer sheet in FA market and we dont match.

Solution
I think Taylor needs to step up again. As coach Thibs deserves appreciation, but this team needs some help from GM. Yes, we play the best basketball in many years. But it is short term view, and we all witness in Butler situation how things can change if there is no communicaiton, no GM voice. It might be wise decision to let market decide Tyus value (after we overpaid Dieng, Wiggins), but I am afraid of another Bjelica situation. For instance, I hope than GM is clear to communicate Tyus his vision. But I'd still at least try to negotiate extension, but it is too late and I am not sure if Butler situation messed up Tyus contract situation as well. If we lost Tyus than part of excellent Tyus defense can be covered by Okogie, but as decision maker, PnR passer Okogie is still unroven. It would be good to know Teague intentions. I like our gleague guys DJO, Terrell but I dont follow them closely to say whether they can play here.

Ideas, comments, thoughts?

[wesleyt95]

Watch on YouTube

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

I like his skillset. Adding PG via draft is also a possibility. Although I am not sure if there are many options at PG in next draft, since we have late FRP.

[Killboard]

In my opinion PG's is the hardest position to translate. A lot of PG's at college support his game on athletic adventage and once in the league they must learn his own limits again. The mental part of it is also critical. They must be great decision makers to excel at the next level. Even a good prospect will more likely hermorrage points and hurt his team the first couple of seasons. That's a good reason to have some prospects developing in the bench before to consider them reliable, even as a backups.

That's why Tyus is very important. Many people dont consider him a needle mover. And while he could not be that, he always has had a positive impact and make players around better. His shooting could and will be better, but his decision making and team defense is great for a player his age. He wont demand big money, because he hasnt the fancy upside many teams are looking for, but he is likely to outplay his next contract considerably.

If one of Teague or Rose stays, Tyus should be the backup. If both stay, then probably Rose would still playing SG like now. If both are gone, we are going to sign a PG with the MLE. In any case, Tyus should stay for less money than Van Vleet got (2x18) to be a reliable backup, start in a pinch, and not be an awful team while a rookie PG is on the floor . That shouldnt be a problem to pick a PG next draft, even if it is a 2nd rounder. I think you must go BPA in draft, but inside tiers, we should look for a young playmaker to find a long term player with upside at that position.

[wesleyt95]

Watch on YouTube

make sure you guys watch till the very end

[Killboard]

Fullsize here

**Jah Morant FT+3pt% should be 56.2 not 37.6

This is some stat compilation for the main PG prospects this season. I detail why I did it this way:

I used freshman stats, or carreer averages to players with more than 1 season of experience in college. That's because wouldnt be fair to use only his senior stats where they play having experience adventage over their pairs or use only freshmen stats and not take into account his improvement afterwards.

Stocks: Steals+Blocks per 100 possesion. It help to understand defensive activity. Often is indicator of atheltic supremacy but can also be an indicator of smart decision making.

Ast:TO. Assist:Turnover ratio. The best standard indicator to evaluate decision making. Often separates undersized combo guards from true PG's.

FT+3PT= Average of FT% and 3PT%. 3Pt line is closer in college and often a small samplewhich can affect reliability. FT's are the best way to judge shooting form and consistency, and is often used as the best shooting predictor to the next level. Here we balance things out.

FTr= Free throw Ratio. Not only the ability to draw contact, but used to know how often a prospect can get to the rim.

3PTar: 3pt Attempt ratio. It can be used to separate spot up shooters from shot creators.

TS%: Shooting efficiency evaluator by default.

SoS: Strenght of schedule. Indicator of competition strentght.

BPM&NET= Best all in one stats publicly available. Impact while the player was on the floor.

[Killboard]

Watch on YouTube

I really like his game.
Nice article about him:

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/06/29/2019-draft-primer-ja-morant-the-ultimate-sleeper/

[shrink]

Rookies rarely are positive players, and young PG’s often take several years before they can help a team. Worse, if your team is rebuilding, flopping a young PG out there to get experience worsens the offense, and makes it harder for the other four players on the court to learn.

I understand that we have three very capable PG’s right now. I think it’s possible we have those three next year, and I think it’s possible we have none of them. We also don’t know who will be our coach/GM after this summer, or what our team direction will be. I know it’s fun to get excited about rookies, and imagine them becoming stars wearing our favorite team’s uniforms. Have at it. However, I’m going to save my energy for now, and take a “wait and see” approach to the PG spot.

[thinktank]

Wow that was fun to watch. Looks like he's not much of a shooter, which, when you can drive and finish like that, might be expected.

[life_saver]

Agree that finding a good PG should be our main priority. I don't see Teague staying here after next year and Rose also is likely not gonna be here for long...even if he is here, I doubt Rose is gonna play full season while playing starter minutes.

[Killboard]

Agree that finding a good PG should be our main priority. I don't see Teague staying here after next year and Rose also is likely not gonna be here for long...even if he is here, I doubt Rose is gonna play full season while playing starter minutes.

Agreed. The PG spot is the hardest to envision mid term. Tyus should remain here IMO, he is steady, young, and will be cheap. Its a good insurance moving forward in any scenario.

C, PF, SF, SG are all set with players under control for several seasons. The only other position I should compare in need is a beefy SF who can play PF too. I still thinking you should go BPA, but Im talking inside tiers.

[Dewey]

In the past, Teague has deferred playing time to Tyus at his expense - thinks pretty highly of him. Makes me assume Teague is open to a role that favors all three PG's - even if it cut his minutes a little and got Tyus a few more. Prolly unfair since he playing well, but I just got this question hovering over Rose and his long-term stability. Can't put a finger on it.

I do think Tyus is a heady player, but as I've said before, he needs to have a couple goto's offensively when it comes to scoring ... reliable 3pt-shot and a floater. He can run a team for sure, has improved his defense, and gotten stronger. Still, his athleticism is average, and to be effective offensively, a quicker/reliable 3pt shot and a running floater would be ideal for his game and teams performance.

Blah Blah Blah ... Ideally, Teague opts out and agrees to a more favorable deal with more years, sign Tyus, and keep Rose as along as he doesn't go huntng for big $$. Again, I like Tyus, but he's gotta be an offensive threat and show some punch to justify $$ ... gonna be a hard decision.

[life_saver]

Agree that finding a good PG should be our main priority. I don't see Teague staying here after next year and Rose also is likely not gonna be here for long...even if he is here, I doubt Rose is gonna play full season while playing starter minutes.

Agreed. The PG spot is the hardest to envision mid term. Tyus should remain here IMO, he is steady, young, and will be cheap. Its a good insurance moving forward in any scenario.

C, PF, SF, SG are all set with players under control for several seasons. The only other position I should compare in need is a beefy SF who can play PF too. I still thinking you should go BPA, but Im talking inside tiers.

Regarding Tyus, Jon Krawczynski mentioned earlier that atleast as of now, Wolves still haven't really thought about extending Tyus...it's tough to estimate market value of Tyus...I am thinking something like 4 years $25M deal? or 3 year $20M deal?

[Killboard]

Agree that finding a good PG should be our main priority. I don't see Teague staying here after next year and Rose also is likely not gonna be here for long...even if he is here, I doubt Rose is gonna play full season while playing starter minutes.

Agreed. The PG spot is the hardest to envision mid term. Tyus should remain here IMO, he is steady, young, and will be cheap. Its a good insurance moving forward in any scenario.

C, PF, SF, SG are all set with players under control for several seasons. The only other position I should compare in need is a beefy SF who can play PF too. I still thinking you should go BPA, but Im talking inside tiers.

Regarding Tyus, Jon Krawczynski mentioned earlier that atleast as of now, Wolves still haven't really thought about extending Tyus...it's tough to estimate market value of Tyus...I am thinking something like 4 years $25M deal? or 3 year $20M deal?

It's hard to know. There is gonna be a lot of FA PG this year. The MLE is about 9M. I said this because it sets the price almost every team can give. The most coveted will be above that. Then it will come the veterans. Lastly would be the RFA who teams shouldn't be risking to sign, Tyus among them. I would say he will get less than the MLE, and the minimum is uncertain. We can match anything reasonable.

As for not thinking about the early extension, it's good. They should have done the same with Dieng and Wiggins. The only no brainer was KAT.

[life_saver]

Agreed. The PG spot is the hardest to envision mid term. Tyus should remain here IMO, he is steady, young, and will be cheap. Its a good insurance moving forward in any scenario.

C, PF, SF, SG are all set with players under control for several seasons. The only other position I should compare in need is a beefy SF who can play PF too. I still thinking you should go BPA, but Im talking inside tiers.

Regarding Tyus, Jon Krawczynski mentioned earlier that atleast as of now, Wolves still haven't really thought about extending Tyus...it's tough to estimate market value of Tyus...I am thinking something like 4 years $25M deal? or 3 year $20M deal?

It's hard to know. There is gonna be a lot of FA PG this year. The MLE is about 9M. I said this because it sets the price almost every team can give. The most coveted will be above that. Then it will come the veterans. Lastly would be the RFA who teams shouldn't be risking to sign, Tyus among them. I would say he will get less than the MLE, and the minimum is uncertain. We can match anything reasonable.

As for not thinking about the early extension, it's good. They should have done the same with Dieng and Wiggins. The only no brainer was KAT.

I looked at our cap for next year...as of now, we have 9 players under contract for next year (assuming Teague opts in) and those 9 players cover around $110M...7 of these players are our current starters and rotation guys (KAT,Wiggs,RoCo,Teague,Saric,Okogie,Dieng)....assuming we run 9-10 man rotation, we need 2 or 3 bench pieces(if Dario is promoted to starting lineup next season)... Since, we have our first round draft pick & most likely to have 2nd Round draft pick too..those 2 picks will likely gonna take up $3M cap space. I am expecting one of the rooks to be part of bench like how Josh has been this year. 9 players already under contract + 2 rookies. Luxury tax for next season is expected to be around $133M...so, we would be having $20M to fill the rest of the roster. So, $19M for 2-3 bench pieces mainly + 2 other players to fill up the 15 man roster.

Sign a veteran big to replace Taj or if Taj is willing to resign for something like $4-5M a year, then just re-sign Taj + re-sign Tyus (for something like 4 year $24M type contract) + offer Rose MLE (Rose's FA market is tough to estimate right now) + 1 or 2 other vet min players or 2 way contract players to fill up rest of the roster. This will ensure us to remain under luxury tax and also essentially retain our current roster. If Rose is out of our range, then preferably need to draft a PG in draft...that's the position we need to fill up for future

[Norseman79]

Coby White...

[Dewey]

Agree that finding a good PG should be our main priority. I don't see Teague staying here after next year and Rose also is likely not gonna be here for long...even if he is here, I doubt Rose is gonna play full season while playing starter minutes.

Agreed. The PG spot is the hardest to envision mid term. Tyus should remain here IMO, he is steady, young, and will be cheap. Its a good insurance moving forward in any scenario.

C, PF, SF, SG are all set with players under control for several seasons. The only other position I should compare in need is a beefy SF who can play PF too. I still thinking you should go BPA, but Im talking inside tiers.

Regarding Tyus, Jon Krawczynski mentioned earlier that atleast as of now, Wolves still haven't really thought about extending Tyus...it's tough to estimate market value of Tyus...I am thinking something like 4 years $25M deal? or 3 year $20M deal?

kinda where I'm at on an extension for Tyus ... 3 years @ $20-25m.

Naturally, he will follow the playing time + $$ when the time comes and then see what those options amount to. If the Wolves plan to extend him, I assume they will carve out a consistant role for him the next 2-3 months and evaluate at year-end.

[Killboard]

I looked at our cap for next year...as of now, we have 9 players under contract for next year (assuming Teague opts in) and those 9 players cover around $110M...7 of these players are our current starters and rotation guys (KAT,Wiggs,RoCo,Teague,Saric,Okogie,Dieng)....assuming we run 9-10 man rotation, we need 2 or 3 bench pieces(if Dario is promoted to starting lineup next season)... Since, we have our first round draft pick & most likely to have 2nd Round draft pick too..those 2 picks will likely gonna take up $3M cap space. I am expecting one of the rooks to be part of bench like how Josh has been this year. 9 players already under contract + 2 rookies. Luxury tax for next season is expected to be around $133M...so, we would be having $20M to fill the rest of the roster. So, $19M for 2-3 bench pieces mainly + 2 other players to fill up the 15 man roster.

Sign a veteran big to replace Taj or if Taj is willing to resign for something like $4-5M a year, then just re-sign Taj + re-sign Tyus (for something like 4 year $24M type contract) + offer Rose MLE (Rose's FA market is tough to estimate right now) + 1 or 2 other vet min players or 2 way contract players to fill up rest of the roster. This will ensure us to remain under luxury tax and also essentially retain our current roster.

Agreed on much of this. Taj for 4M is the hardest choice. Isnt sure about him signing by that type of money. Obviously he could value stability but I dont take it for granted. From the opposite view, Saric should start. He is the future and he must be happy and has looked terrific so far. That leaves Taj on the bench with Dieng, which isnt good IMO. At least we can move Dieng without giving picks, I dont see the Taj fit. Thibs loves him and will do anything to keep him.

If Rose is out of our range, then preferably need to draft a PG in draft...that's the position we need to fill up for future

I would be inclined to pick a PG regardless. He shouldn't be relied upon his rookie season. If Rose doesn't want MLE type of money we should sign a 4th wing who can play bigger if needed and run with Teague and Tyus. If Teague opts out and Rose does the same, then we spend the MLE on a PG.

If both comeback, and Tyus is extended, Im counting on Okogie playing the 3 with Rose at the 2 and move Covington to PF with the bench unit, instead of what Saric is currently doing. It will be a smaller team, but a pest on defense anyway.

[Domejandro]

We aren't going to be in position to draft Ja Morant, I don't see that happening in any reasonable scenario.

[Jedzz]

I have a hard time getting concerned about paying Tyus early when he doesn't demand it by shooting like a pro. Especially when they need a basket down in score and he clanks them at that time more than ever. Pressure messes with his shot so far. If he was clutch shooting it would be different to me. I like the rest of his game. I ride it rfa if it was my choice.

I plan to pay Rose something to beg him to stay. This isn't half the team without what he's been offering every game. If he's gone at some point Timberwolves will need a replacement of that level of player and will never get it for what he's playing for right now. Go ahead and spend on Tyus and then live or die by his shooting growth or failure to.