2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[getrichordie]

Don’t know how this is on medical staff if we are arguing a “voluntary” procedure is the culprit.


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[Jstock12]

Avulsions actually sound pretty scary, like it might be a career-threatening thing. Hopefully he has a speedy recovery, though shutting him down for the whole season would probably be the smarter thing.

[ThunderBolt]

I couldn’t care less if they withhold information. It wouldn’t change my opinion. Just do your job correctly. They wouldn’t get any less criticism if they came out and admitted to incompetence.

[alessandrux]

What I never really got is what is the upside of bringing someone back (too) fast?

I rather have my team miss the playoffs/lose a game than having someones livelihood and health at risk.
Letting players heal is far more rewarding than rushing them back and decrease their competiveness by doing so (and disgruntle them by it, e.g. Kawhi).
I don't like cheering for banged up players.



Letting my confirmation bias speak here, I think our rushing back derailed Maynors career, Ibakas career has been hindered by it massively, Westbrook still has his knee issues and I'm probably missing some more.


If I were a player I would 100 hundred times prefer to sign in Phoenix rather than in Philadelphia.

[bondom34]

where is the conspiracy?

Any idea they're withholding info

from players? the public? i don't see how this changes the critique of the roberson injury and setbacks. and while not withholding information, thunder reporters have openly remarked on how tight the thunder are with injury and recovery news and how it is to be spun. i think i posted the comment weston shepherd made from dailythunder that he was going to do a piece on thunder injuries but was 'told not to'.

Yep, just not making that leap myself yet. I'm pretty much in agreement with Knstrz

[Pillendreher]

15 games played in November:

-12-3 record. Tied for league best with Toronto.
-110.4 ORtG; would currently rank 10th overall.
-99.9 DRtG; would currently rank 1st overall in DRtG.
-+10.5 NetRtG; would currently rank 1st overall in NetRtG.
-The last time the team was this good in November was 2012/2013 when they went 13-4 with a +9.7 NetRtG.
-The 3 losses so far since the 0-4 start have been kinda self-inflicted. In every one of those 3 games they failed to get a grip on the opponent defensively and then failed to keep up with them eventually. I don't know if that's a good sign or not since we have been so volatile with our 3pt shooting...

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I don't know if there is anything to it, but George-Adams have been way better with Ferguson next to them than with him off the floor:



Overall they're at +10.9 in over 600 minutes, which is just slightly behind Milwaukee's two best players in Giannis-Middleton at +11.1. Those non-Ferguson minutes are something one should keep an eye on. Probably it's just variance. There's one lineup that really "pops" out though and that's Westbrook-Schröder as the backcourt with George, Grant and Adams on the floor:



I fear that we're going to have trouble defending all season long with that lineup unless Russ actually decides to give a crap about defending. Since he came back, his main objective on defense has been to avoid having to play any defense whatsoever. Schröder by himself is not nearly good enough to make up for that.

Something's interesting though when looking at the Westbrook-Schröder lineup as a two-man-combo: 110.4 ORtG | 100.7 DRtG | +9.7 NetRtG in 183 minutes. Looks to me like their most used lineup is getting outperformed by a bunch of lineups with way fewer minutes at an incredibly big margin:

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612760/lineups-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*westbr:GROUP_NAME*E*schr

Extrapolating from the complete sample, I'm getting the following for the 97 minutes played by the Westbrook-Schröder lineup besides said Schröder as a starter combination: 112.2 ORtG | 92.5 DRtG | +19.7 NetRtG. Which is weird. But with this few minutes probably not something of consequence. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

[ThunderBolt]

Russ is such an enigma on defense. Last night he let his man blow by him going to the basket and his man kicked the ball to the corner for an open three. At that point russ frantically decides to sprint out to defend the three point line. The former would have required less effort to defend and been more effective.

There are plenty of times he just looks lazy but other times he seems lost in regard to how to play within the teams’ defense.

[getrichordie]

15 games played in November:

-12-3 record. Tied for league best with Toronto.
-110.4 ORtG; would currently rank 10th overall.
-99.9 DRtG; would currently rank 1st overall in DRtG.
-+10.5 NetRtG; would currently rank 1st overall in NetRtG.
-The last time the team was this good in November was 2012/2013 when they went 13-4 with a +9.7 NetRtG.
-The 3 losses so far since the 0-4 start have been kinda self-inflicted. In every one of those 3 games they failed to get a grip on the opponent defensively and then failed to keep up with them eventually. I don't know if that's a good sign or not since we have been so volatile with our 3pt shooting...

-----------------------------------------------

I don't know if there is anything to it, but George-Adams have been way better with Ferguson next to them than with him off the floor:



Overall they're at +10.9 in over 600 minutes, which is just slightly behind Milwaukee's two best players in Giannis-Middleton at +11.1. Those non-Ferguson minutes are something one should keep an eye on. Probably it's just variance. There's one lineup that really "pops" out though and that's Westbrook-Schröder as the backcourt with George, Grant and Adams on the floor:



I fear that we're going to have trouble defending all season long with that lineup unless Russ actually decides to give a crap about defending. Since he came back, his main objective on defense has been to avoid having to play any defense whatsoever. Schröder by himself is not nearly good enough to make up for that.

Something's interesting though when looking at the Westbrook-Schröder lineup as a two-man-combo: 110.4 ORtG | 100.7 DRtG | +9.7 NetRtG in 183 minutes. Looks to me like their most used lineup is getting outperformed by a bunch of lineups with way fewer minutes at an incredibly big margin:

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612760/lineups-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*westbr:GROUP_NAME*E*schr

Extrapolating from the complete sample, I'm getting the following for the 97 minutes played by the Westbrook-Schröder lineup besides said Schröder as a starter combination: 112.2 ORtG | 92.5 DRtG | +19.7 NetRtG. Which is weird. But with this few minutes probably not something of consequence. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

Donovan is staggering their (Westbrook/Schroder) minutes so Westbrook gets time with second unit alongside Schroder.

Also, the George-Adams numbers w/ Ferguson I’m sure will correlate with Schroder being on floor as well. Ferguson hasn’t played that much (I don’t think) with Westbrook on floor due to injury/personal reasons. So I think it’s more of Schroder’s impact versus a number of relatively weaker opponents during that stretch.

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612760/lineups-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=4&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*adams:GROUP_NAME*E*george:GROUP_NAME*E*ferguson

Schroder/Ferguson/George/Adams is posting a 116.0 ORtg and a 96.0 DRtg which is really close to the “Ferguson ON” numbers you’ve posted.

—

Also, Schroder/George/Adams lineup numbers:

20 games played
388 minutes
110.2 ORtg
98.4 DRtg

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[Dn4sty]

Let say Abrines is a 39% three point shooter at the end of the season, stays healthy, and plays relatively ok defense....

What amount of money would you think he gets in free agency? And what level would you feel comfortable matching?

[slick_watts]

Let say Abrines is a 39% three point shooter at the end of the season, stays healthy, and plays relatively ok defense....

What amount of money would you think he gets in free agency? And what level would you feel comfortable matching?

3/22? doug mcdermott contract seems a reasonable comp. i'd try for 3/18.

abrines doesn't play the minutes here to justify much more than that. but a team signing him wanting him to start might go higher imo.

[spearsy23]

Brett Dawson is doing a Q&A Monday at noon.
We should definitely not bombard him with questions about the mismanagement of Roberson's rehab.

[Mattv]

Let say Abrines is a 39% three point shooter at the end of the season, stays healthy, and plays relatively ok defense....

What amount of money would you think he gets in free agency? And what level would you feel comfortable matching?

1st. Those are some big ifs he might shoot 39% but his defense is bad.
2nd. There are to many variables does Roberson come back healthy? Does Ferguson,Diallo,Burton and nader improve?
3rd. I wouldnt fell comfortable giving him much more than he makes now.

[Pillendreher]

[Bergmaniac]

I fear that we're going to have trouble defending all season long with that lineup unless Russ actually decides to give a crap about defending. Since he came back, his main objective on defense has been to avoid having to play any defense whatsoever. Schröder by himself is not nearly good enough to make up for that.

The Adams - George - Westbrook - Schroder - Grant lineup has actually been very solid defensively since Westbrook came back (97.9 DRTG), it was in the first few games of the season where it was getting killed defensively.

[Mattv]

I fear that we're going to have trouble defending all season long with that lineup unless Russ actually decides to give a crap about defending. Since he came back, his main objective on defense has been to avoid having to play any defense whatsoever. Schröder by himself is not nearly good enough to make up for that.

The Adams - George - Westbrook - Schroder - Grant lineup has actually been very solid defensively since Westbrook came back (97.9 DRTG), it was in the first few games of the season where it was getting killed defensively.

Yeah i actually thought Westbrook plays better defense when Schroder in the game because he know he has too.I also dont like Schroder and Westbrook on the floor at the same time as many minutes as they are everyone looks confused.But Westbrook and Schroder are to fast to be letting people blow by the like they do at times.

[Pillendreher]

I fear that we're going to have trouble defending all season long with that lineup unless Russ actually decides to give a crap about defending. Since he came back, his main objective on defense has been to avoid having to play any defense whatsoever. Schröder by himself is not nearly good enough to make up for that.

The Adams - George - Westbrook - Schroder - Grant lineup has actually been very solid defensively since Westbrook came back (97.9 DRTG), it was in the first few games of the season where it was getting killed defensively.

Oh, I didn't catch that. Interesting.

Before Russ' injury: 94.4 ORtG | 141.8 DRtG | -47.4 NetRtG in 22 minutes.
Since Russ' return: 113.5 ORtG | 97.9 DRtG | +15.6 NetRtG in 63 minutes

As a two-man-lineup with a bigger sample size:

Before Russ' injury: 102.1 ORtG | 109.6 DRtG | -7.5 NetRtG in 79 minutes (so Schröder+starters only played ~28 % of the Westbrook-Schröder minutes)
Since Russ' return: 117.0 ORtG | 93.5 DRtG | +23.5 NetRtG in 103 minutes (Schröder+starters up to 61 % now)

It's really tough to get a reading on these different Westbrook-Schröder lineups though. Combing through the 5-man-data, it doesn't look like there's a single lineup besides Schröder+starters that has seen regular minutes. Going by some on/off stuff with Westbrook and Schröder on the floor, it looks like Grant - so far - has been the only starter that they've been doing well without (Without either George or Adams, the offense tanks completely. but without Grant it stays at least competitive at 107.0 while the defense gets better by 10pp100p).

Alas, I'm digging too depp on a 200 minute sample. We'll just have to give it some time.

[getrichordie]

We have to give Billy credit for how judiciously he has used Burton and Patterson. He’s doing a really good job of paying attention to what’s going on, on the floor, with these two guys.


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[bondom34]

Read on Twitter

[CROklahoma]

Abdul Nader with 31p in D-League win. With some assists, steals ...

[getrichordie]

Abdul Nader with 31p in D-League win. With some assists, steals ...

Let’s hope he can bring the same game to the floor tonight.

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Also, Schroder is almost shooting 42% (41.8) on catch-and-shoot 3s according to Maddie Lee (Oklahoman).

If we can move Adams and get Beal, I don’t think it hurts Schroder’s playing time too much. I think it would be super hard to stop Beal/Westbrook/George and then have Schroder and Beal or Schroder and George run the second unit. That would be amazing.

The closing lineup would be Schroder-Westbrook-Beal-George-Grant(?)I would love to see that small ball in action.


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