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Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1901 » by VFX » Mon Dec 3, 2018 4:46 pm

SOUL wrote:People were hoping Vuc for a 2nd rounder earlier in the year.

Even in fake rumors, unless it's a team desperate for a really good center to ONLY compete for this season, they aren't going to part with much.

Best you could hope for is a Fournier or Harris scenario where you get back a young player that isn't really valued by their team and doesn't have much scouting on them but good upside.


Exactly. If you were to look at the trade as “the #2 pick from a few years ago for Vuc” people would be ecstatic. Ball just has a ton of baggage to being with him which is what makes him an unappealing acquisition. I would be more than happy with younger prospects and forming a new identity.

That being said, I still view Vuc’s departure as addition by subtraction because it will actually force the FO and Cliff to build an offense without him for once. He’s been better this year, but it’s hard to build anything with him being the focal point every night taking a majority of the shots. What more could he possibly accomplish in Orlando? I don’t see him resigning with Orlando if he actually wants to win at some point in his career.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1902 » by Catledge » Mon Dec 3, 2018 5:18 pm

MagicMatic wrote: If you were to look at the trade as “the #2 pick from a few years ago for Vuc” people would be ecstatic.


Lonzo was the #2 pick because of how he played in one year of college. But now we have 1.25 NBA years to base our analysis on. That's 75 games against NBA competition as compared to 36 games against amateurs. Why on earth should we ignore the larger sample of more reliable evidence and only consider the smaller sample of dramatically less reliable evidence?

Anthony Bennett was a #1 pick, Jahlil Okafor a #3, Mario Hezonja a #5, Jabari Parker a #3 -- would you have us trade for any of them? I wouldn't because we know more about them now than was known when they were drafted, just as we know more about Lonzo now.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1903 » by VFX » Mon Dec 3, 2018 5:37 pm

Catledge wrote:
MagicMatic wrote: If you were to look at the trade as “the #2 pick from a few years ago for Vuc” people would be ecstatic.


Lonzo was the #2 pick because of how he played in one year of college. But now we have 1.25 NBA years to base our analysis on. That's 75 games against NBA competition as compared to 36 games against amateurs. Why on earth should we ignore the larger sample of more reliable evidence and only consider the smaller sample of dramatically less reliable evidence?

Anthony Bennett was a #1 pick, Jahlil Okafor a #3, Mario Hezonja a #5, Jabari Parker a #3 -- would you have us trade for any of them? I wouldn't because we know more about them now than was known when they were drafted, just as we know more about Lonzo now.


Yeah I’m saying on paper it sounds good, but isn’t because Lonzo doesn’t really bring anything positive outside of being a relatively young point guard.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1904 » by Knightro » Mon Dec 3, 2018 5:51 pm

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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1905 » by PrimeThyme » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:08 pm

This team isnt trading Vuc. They are all in on the playoffs, and Vuc is the one thing keeping that goal realistic. Lonzo is just another underachiever from that extremely overrated 2017 point guard draft class. I'm not interested in him, Fultz, or Frank. None of them provide the one thing we desperately need at our point guard position. Scoring.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1906 » by VFX » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:14 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:This team isnt trading Vuc. They are all in on the playoffs, and Vuc is the one thing keeping that goal realistic. Lonzo is just another underachiever from that extremely overrated 2017 point guard draft class. I'm not interested in him, Fultz, or Frank. None of them provide the one thing we desperately need at our point guard position. Scoring.

You are probably right, but they’ll have nothing to show for it next season when he walks. If they manage to resign him for his asking price for a 2-3 year deal it means drafting Bamba was a mistake.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1907 » by dsg2021 » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:43 pm

I think it's been a long while to realize that not only should Vooch be resigned for at least 1 year, but 2-3, or even 4, years too. The pressure is truly not on until Bamba is breathing down the Hipster's MVP's neck. Bamba is incredibly young right now too. On the same point, Dwight and Gortat also worked amazing together for some years. Even when that happened with Gortat (when he clearly became good-starter material stuck to 24 MPG), they had the good chemistry and maturity to never make it a problem.

If the Magic want to go lean and even younger, they can still let Ross and, eventually in a couple years, Fournier expire, leaving only one major veteran commitment on the entire 15 man roster in Vooch. That's not a cap anchor in any way.


And I really, really like the retrospect on the last few years of drafts. If there is one huge advantage to not really grabbing a guard in the last 8 years of drafts (minus Oladipo, traded away before WeHam came), it's looking at the big board of all the guards WeHam was very high on in those 8 years. There's so much for everyone to learn from it. Which kinds of guards are working out in the NBA faster than others? Why does it seem hard for a young PG to breach into early stardom? Are there no good PG's in the last decade? Why are 2nd and 3rd and 4th (big board ranked) SG's/Wings outplaying 1st (big board ranked) SG's/Wings in the last half-decade or so? There could be an interesting case study that would thus allow ORL to update how the current trends/meta of the NBA affect guard prospects (because that would be a huge/relevant factor in those questions).
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1908 » by Knightro » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:45 pm

MagicMatic wrote:You are probably right, but they’ll have nothing to show for it next season when he walks. If they manage to resign him for his asking price for a 2-3 year deal it means drafting Bamba was a mistake.


Not necessarily.

If they were to resign Vucevic to a 2 year deal, Bamba would be all of 22 years old when that contract expired and still on his own rookie deal.

I like Mo's potential, but I haven't seen anything at all that would lead me to believe he's ready for more minutes than he's getting right now (15-20 per night against backups).

He's been pretty horrible from a positive impact perspective thus far.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1909 » by Audi » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:54 pm

dsg2021 wrote:I think it's been a long while to realize that not only should Vooch be resigned for at least 1 year, but 2-3, or even 4, years too. The pressure is truly not on until Bamba is breathing down the Hipster's MVP's neck. Bamba is incredibly young right now too. On the same point, Dwight and Gortat also worked amazing together for some years. Even when that happened with Gortat (when he clearly became good-starter material stuck to 24 MPG), they had the good chemistry and maturity to never make it a problem.

If the Magic want to go lean and even younger, they can still let Ross and, eventually in a couple years, Fournier expire, leaving only one major veteran commitment on the entire 15 man roster in Vooch. That's not a cap anchor in any way.


And I really, really like the retrospect on the last few years of drafts. If there is one huge advantage to not really grabbing a guard in the last 8 years of drafts (minus Oladipo, traded away before WeHam came), it's looking at the big board of all the guards WeHam was very high on in those 8 years. There's so much for everyone to learn from it. Which kinds of guards are working out in the NBA faster than others? Why does it seem hard for a young PG to breach into early stardom? Are there no good PG's in the last decade? Why are 2nd and 3rd and 4th (big board ranked) SG's/Wings outplaying 1st (big board ranked) SG's/Wings in the last half-decade or so? There could be an interesting case study that would thus allow ORL to update how the current trends/meta of the NBA affect guard prospects (because that would be a huge/relevant factor in those questions).


Wait...so you have access to their big board(s)? Where can I find this, without waiting on a dry erase board photo leak?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1910 » by JBSouthpaw » Mon Dec 3, 2018 6:54 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:This team isnt trading Vuc. They are all in on the playoffs, and Vuc is the one thing keeping that goal realistic. Lonzo is just another underachiever from that extremely overrated 2017 point guard draft class. I'm not interested in him, Fultz, or Frank. None of them provide the one thing we desperately need at our point guard position. Scoring.

You are probably right, but they’ll have nothing to show for it next season when he walks. If they manage to resign him for his asking price for a 2-3 year deal it means drafting Bamba was a mistake.


I'd hope that he'd let the Magic know if he'd resign here or not before the deadline.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1911 » by OrlandoNed » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:00 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
PrimeThyme wrote:This team isnt trading Vuc. They are all in on the playoffs, and Vuc is the one thing keeping that goal realistic. Lonzo is just another underachiever from that extremely overrated 2017 point guard draft class. I'm not interested in him, Fultz, or Frank. None of them provide the one thing we desperately need at our point guard position. Scoring.

You are probably right, but they’ll have nothing to show for it next season when he walks. If they manage to resign him for his asking price for a 2-3 year deal it means drafting Bamba was a mistake.

Given how raw Bamba is, a 2 or 3 year deal for Vuc would be good for both parties, so I don't think that would mean Bamba was a mistake. He was the right pick at #6 regardless of Vuc.

However, the real mistake will always be not beating that complete bargain of an offer that Dallas made to Atlanta for the #3 pick for an absolute savant like Doncic. It was a miracle that he even got to 3, and we missed on a golden opportunity to get the cornerstone of the next great era of this franchise. That is the latest failure in a long line that will haunt our franchise for a long time. Instead we settled on mediocrity while Dallas became a perfect example of fortune favoring the bold.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1912 » by VFX » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:09 pm

Knightro wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:You are probably right, but they’ll have nothing to show for it next season when he walks. If they manage to resign him for his asking price for a 2-3 year deal it means drafting Bamba was a mistake.


Not necessarily.

If they were to resign Vucevic to a 2 year deal, Bamba would be all of 22 years old when that contract expired and still on his own rookie deal.

I like Mo's potential, but I haven't seen anything at all that would lead me to believe he's ready for more minutes than he's getting right now (15-20 per night against backups).

He's been pretty horrible from a positive impact perspective thus far.


Yeah, you don’t spend a #6 lottery draft pick to sit behind a player that will be on the floor 30+ minutes a game. Especially to a team that may or may not make the playoffs.

Bamba doesn’t look amazing, but he isn’t versatile enough for that move to not devalue his stock as a prospect and take away his valuable playing time on the floor (especially with Isaac and AG needing minutes).

He’s not going to look amazing playing spot minutes for Vuc doing things essentially Birch could be doing without spending a #6 pick.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1913 » by rcklsscognition » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:15 pm

The only concern I would have is Vuc comes back next year and has a bad season and we can't trade him if we wanted to. Otherwise, you resign him and keep him next year, 2 years, whatever, then just move him when Bamba is good enough.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1914 » by dsg2021 » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:33 pm

Audi wrote:
dsg2021 wrote:I think it's been a long while to realize that not only should Vooch be resigned for at least 1 year, but 2-3, or even 4, years too. The pressure is truly not on until Bamba is breathing down the Hipster's MVP's neck. Bamba is incredibly young right now too. On the same point, Dwight and Gortat also worked amazing together for some years. Even when that happened with Gortat (when he clearly became good-starter material stuck to 24 MPG), they had the good chemistry and maturity to never make it a problem.

If the Magic want to go lean and even younger, they can still let Ross and, eventually in a couple years, Fournier expire, leaving only one major veteran commitment on the entire 15 man roster in Vooch. That's not a cap anchor in any way.


And I really, really like the retrospect on the last few years of drafts. If there is one huge advantage to not really grabbing a guard in the last 8 years of drafts (minus Oladipo, traded away before WeHam came), it's looking at the big board of all the guards WeHam was very high on in those 8 years. There's so much for everyone to learn from it. Which kinds of guards are working out in the NBA faster than others? Why does it seem hard for a young PG to breach into early stardom? Are there no good PG's in the last decade? Why are 2nd and 3rd and 4th (big board ranked) SG's/Wings outplaying 1st (big board ranked) SG's/Wings in the last half-decade or so? There could be an interesting case study that would thus allow ORL to update how the current trends/meta of the NBA affect guard prospects (because that would be a huge/relevant factor in those questions).


Wait...so you have access to their big board(s)? Where can I find this, without waiting on a dry erase board photo leak?


No, I mean it as an exercise for them only. I have no clue who filled WeHam's top-15 boards those 8 years.

But there's nothing stopping us from learning from it too? Do you know how many of us would have pulled the trigger on a Dante Exum draft selection or trade? A Trey Burke draft selection? A Frank Ntilikina selection? Everyone here was so high on Wiggins too, only to see players like Giannis, Mitchell, Gobert, and Booker come right under our noses to steal the show.

The truth of the matter is that we make these "shoulda, coulda, woulda drafted/traded for these guys" every year, but we completely forget that 2-3 years ago, we had even more conviction to trade that said future draft pick for.. Trey Burke, Dante Exum. Let's learn from it. That means you're gonna look like the SAC of the East drafting log-jammed guards/the-same-type-of-player every year.
So far, I learned that there's a lot of steals in the draft at 10-15, and the Magic can get one thinking like that. And not to think of missing on a top 3 pick as the end of the world (unless faith in management is totally lost after 3-4 stinky years in a row, where it probably becomes the best bet again).

That dry board leak tho.. :lol:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1915 » by EAS Law » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:43 pm

People here still obsessed with trading Vuc/blaming Vuc for years of incompetent coaching/blaming Vuc for defensive woes as a team are STILL obsessed with getting rid of him while he quietly makes the case to be an All-Star this season.

Amazing.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1916 » by thelead » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:49 pm

EAS Law wrote:People here still obsessed with trading Vuc/blaming Vuc for years of incompetent coaching/blaming Vuc for defensive woes as a team are STILL obsessed with getting rid of him while he quietly makes the case to be an All-Star this season.

Amazing.


I'm in the 'wait until February and see if he's still performing at this level' camp. I was over Vuc about 2 years ago but if he can keep this up, I would even consider flipping Bamba at some point. But again, I need to see how this all plays out first... I also hesitate because this could be a 'I'm going all out because this is a contract-year' situation.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1917 » by dsg2021 » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:53 pm

EAS Law wrote:People here still obsessed with trading Vuc/blaming Vuc for years of incompetent coaching/blaming Vuc for defensive woes as a team are STILL obsessed with getting rid of him while he quietly makes the case to be an All-Star this season.

Amazing.


If we get rid of Vooch, and to slightly lesser degree, Fournier, we would see a completely different team than ever before. One much younger and with more opportunities for them. I get that. So many fellow fans want that. And it could even mean a top 4 lottery pick with good development from the young core. I also still really like that idea in a controlled 2-3 year dip (or heck, even in an until-we-hit-big strategy).

But.. we missed the boat on that for this particular season. This was something to commit on before the season. Right now, we are not going to be bottom 4 record-wise, and when I did my own new lottery format analysis, I think it was if you can't get to a bottom 6 record, then you've really wasted your season (for tanking purposes). ORL looks absolutely nothing like a team that can get to bottom 6. They're missing more shots than in previous years, but still winning to near .500. They have looked more real than ever before, and Vooch's offense and (solid) defense has looked more real than ever before.

I also really believe in giving new management a long, fair shake at things too (especially when the hire seems professionally consulted from outside sources, comes with 2 people, Weltman, Hammond, with a vast number of years in experience and inside knowledge). To completely disregard their expertise for a blatantly unskillful tanking is short-sighted.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1918 » by X_O_Z » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:55 pm

MagicMatic wrote:
SOUL wrote:People were hoping Vuc for a 2nd rounder earlier in the year.

Even in fake rumors, unless it's a team desperate for a really good center to ONLY compete for this season, they aren't going to part with much.

Best you could hope for is a Fournier or Harris scenario where you get back a young player that isn't really valued by their team and doesn't have much scouting on them but good upside.


Exactly. If you were to look at the trade as “the #2 pick from a few years ago for Vuc” people would be ecstatic. Ball just has a ton of baggage to being with him which is what makes him an unappealing acquisition. I would be more than happy with younger prospects and forming a new identity.

That being said, I still view Vuc’s departure as addition by subtraction because it will actually force the FO and Cliff to build an offense without him for once. He’s been better this year, but it’s hard to build anything with him being the focal point every night taking a majority of the shots. What more could he possibly accomplish in Orlando? I don’t see him resigning with Orlando if he actually wants to win at some point in his career.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1919 » by X_O_Z » Mon Dec 3, 2018 7:57 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:The only concern I would have is Vuc comes back next year and has a bad season and we can't trade him if we wanted to. Otherwise, you resign him and keep him next year, 2 years, whatever, then just move him when Bamba is good enough.


Exactly, Trade VUC while he has a good value and get back some assets. LONZO BALL i wouldn't mind at all, dude playing behind LEBRON who needs the ball all the time. think about it, our offensive flow sucks and rotation is not great because we don't have a true PG playmaker, BALL while being so young will have the freedom, less pressure to do whatever he wants. Playing in the east at that? Trust me I am all for the trade.

VUC contract is up by the end of the year. Why keep a player when his time with us has run its course? Dude will get paid. Are we willing to pay VUC the money he will be demanding? We could not build a team around him, and its now that he is playing great with us. I say trade him while we still have the chance to get back a good piece.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG 

Post#1920 » by dsg2021 » Mon Dec 3, 2018 8:00 pm

Knightro wrote:
Read on Twitter


Article Excerpt:
"The Warriors would rather live with this shot than double the post and open up space for a cutter to zip by—the only center who averages more potential assists (passes that would tally as an assist if the shot went in) is Jokic, who’s already the best passing big man of his generation—but a poison must be picked.

While the blend of three-point shooting and low-post craftsmanship helps make Vucevic a valuable commodity, a significant slice of his value has shockingly materialized on defense. Generally speaking, Magic head coach Steve Clifford wants to funnel ball handlers into the paint, towards dropping bigs who cement themselves near the basket. At the rim, opponents are shooting 56.6 percent when Vucevic is the closest defender to their shot. That number, along with the attempts faced, neighbors respectable shot blockers like Rudy Gobert, Jarrett Allen, and Myles Turner."




Nikola Vucevic is the Nikola Jokic of the East. Or the closest thing you're gonna get to it.

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