Post#130 » by Def Swami » Thu Dec 6, 2018 10:34 pm
My overall feelings on tanking have really changed over the last 6 years. I can get on board with tanking OR a playoff pursuit. I don't know that one strategy is surely better than the other. But the execution of either strategy has to be smart and competent. The Magic have tanked and tried to make playoff pushes over the last 6 seasons, but they never committed to a Philly-like Process while missing out on franchise players, and squandered assets and cap space along the way while trying to make the playoffs. They've mismanaged both strategies.
I absolutely agree that the draft is the absolute best way to find a true superstar talent that can carry a franchise. Especially for a small market team that has difficulty attracting free agents or "pre-agents" as Jalen Rose and Bill Simmons coined. Daryl Morey once said in an interview that their analytics people have consistently found "tanking" is the best chance to turnaround the fortunes of a franchise. The data proves it. And success in the NBA does revolve around those players who are typically drafted in the top 3-5.
At the same time, 6 out of the current top 8 teams in the NBA (based on record) currently never really "tanked" in the true sense of the strategy. In the last 6 seasons, several other NBA teams have lapped the Magic in development without having ever truly having to tank. You can fault the Magic for never going full "Process." You can also blame them for never maximizing the picks that they have had. It's not like they haven't had the opportunity to draft some good players over the years.
I don't believe that tanking is the only way to build a successful team with long term success. Teams like the Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets for example were able to become successful with superstar talents on their rosters. Those teams have some of the best young prospects in the league without really tanking (aside for the 2013-2014 Bucks). The Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz are struggling, but they are two other examples of teams that didn't tank over the last 6 years. Even the Golden State Warriors never drafted higher than 7th. These other teams maximized the draft picks and assets that they did have, built a culture of winning, and set a standard of expectations for themselves. They hit on their picks, made smart trades, and made smart free agency signings.
There are pitfalls and case scenarios of badness in both strategies. For every OKC Thunder, there's a 14 year playoff drought like the Sacramento Kings. And for every Milwaukee Bucks success story, there's a Charlotte Hornets treadmill.
If you asked me at the beginning of the season what this team should do, I was absolutely on board with just tanking again. I also never anticipated Terrence Ross shooting 41% from deep, Augustin shooting 40% from deep and having one of the best A:TO ratios in the league, Gordon developing into a really efficient, stable, high-energy defender, and Vucevic turning into one of the best centers in the league. Give Steve Clifford credit. He has really gotten the absolute best out of this team and every player.
However, I don't mind the Magic striving for the playoffs. I don't mind being wrong about how good this team could be. I just want them to pick a direction for the team (tank or playoffs) and pursue it head on. So long as they don't make moves that sacrifice the long term growth of the team and future flexibility, I'm fine with a 8th seed pursuit. There's definitely merit to it.
I still believe in the value of building a culture. The culture around our organization has been so toxic, which is one of those side effects of 6 years of losing without a plan in sight (honestly, I feel like the Suns are going to fall victim to this). The players need to know how to play a winning brand of basketball. They need to know how to practice. And someone had to preach the level of consistency, effort, and professionalism that the team needs to carry themselves with. It was one of the biggest detriments to the development of our players over the 6 year rebuild. One of the biggest indictments of the last 6 years of the Orlando Magic is the development of players like Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris. It shouldn't have taken Oladipo and Harris leaving for them to realize their true potential as star players in the league. You might as well pack it in and go home if the plan is to keep drafting high while never maximizing the growth of your players. I'm glad Weltman and Hammond totally overhauled their player development department.
Teams have a brand and players around the league know and see it. There are certain teams that have a stability and structure that is respected around the league, and other teams are a clown show. The Magic needed to clean house and they needed someone like Clifford to come in and prevent them from becoming Kings East. The Magic want to build what the Heat have built. Good teams like the Spurs, Celtics, Raptors, for more examples have established that credibility around the league. Players absolutely respect it. The Clippers are trying to build that now. They had the opportunity to tank the season, but that team knows better than any what it's like to be in the doldrums of the NBA for years and years and how it can deteriorate the morale of a franchise and how that manifests into the perception of a clown show by other players. They're showing other teams and free agents that they're a serious and credible team. Players like Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and Jimmy Butler will notice that. This is what Woj was talking about with Bobby Marks in their last podcast when they say the Magic want to make the playoffs to establish some credibility in the league. This is what Clifford was talking about changing in the post-game press conference after losing to the Clippers. And I'm totally on board with that.
The other issue is that the Magic just frankly won't tank. They don't want to and can't afford to. It's really easy for us argue that it's the best strategy for the team until we're blue in the face. But we aren't subjected to financial burden that places on a small market teams. Small market teams just can't sustain a "Process-like" run. Small market teams rely on their TV deals and season ticket holders to generate revenue. Anyone here who has ever been to a season-ticket holder event can attest to a heavy, burning desire among them to have a watchable, winning product to watch, and the Magic ownership and front office absolutely feels that. Fan interest has plummeted over the last few years, and as games become meaningless after November, ratings on Fox Sports nosedive as well. The Magic just can't afford to lose that fan interest, and they can't afford to lose anymore season ticket holders. The Magic don't have the TV deal that teams like the Knicks or Lakers have and don't sell merchandise like those teams where they can sustain years and years of losing. It's why you rarely see small market teams pursue the strategy. It's just tough financially.
It comes back to how the front office goes about it. I don't mind them pursuing the playoffs. The team is relatively average, but they do have some interesting assets and players that other teams covet. They have some young players who have potential to grow in Isaac, Gordon, and Bamba. I really am not worried about Bamba's development being hindered. I'd rather he play in a winning environment, and he's in the right role for what he's capable of at the moment. There's some potential cap space opening in the off-season. There are potential trade assets. And there's still a 2019 1st round pick to come. I'm more than open and willing to see how Weltman and Hammond play this out.
With these new odds who knows where a good spot to be is. If we traded Vuc and Evan before the season started I woulda been all for it. But how can you do it now? Issac and Gordon look energized playing these meaningfull games. They actually believe they can make the playoffs. How could you take that from them without it causing a negtive effect?
