Steph Curry is shooting 50% on 10.8 3pt attempts per game, 52% overall

[GordanFreeman]

Great shooter, but benefiting from era rules

He'd be the goat shooter if he played in any era (since 3 pointers were introduced)

[nikster]

He's incredible, the greatest shooter eve rand the cornerstone of the greatest offence ever.

If he were a mediocre shooter however the rest of his game would not justify him getting minutes in the NBA. If you had him switch places with his dad in the 90's he would only marginally be a better version of his dad.

The freedom of movement rules have been a disaster and the league needs to at least take away the corner three, it's just a jump shooting contest at this point.

“Curry’s only shooting like this because of the rule changes”
League average 3 point shooting has dropped 0.09% from last year

[GordanFreeman]

Because anything past 17ft is considered a long 2. If a players foot is on the 3pt line in the act of shooting, then surely you're not going to call that a mid-range shot. It would be considered a long 2, like it's been forever.

I'm not saying that he needs to take more mid-range, just saying he hasn't taken enough in his career to be lumped in with past and present shooters who used the whole floor as part of their arsenal.

No its considered a mid range shot and yes some mid range shots are long 2s. Most places that I can find that say a definition of a mid range shot is a shot outside of the key and inside the 3pt arc. So by their definition a mid range shot is 15ft<3. Ive also seen any 2pt shot that isnt a layup or dunk. Hard to find anywhere that says a mid range shot is basically from the free throw line and in.

Again I just find it a weird premise that Curry is elite everywhere on the court, but just because only 7% of his shots come from 10-16ft, that takes him out of the best shooter conversation. Only 8% of Dirks shots came from 3-10ft. So by your definition he didnt use the whole floor as part of his arsenal, therefore he shouldnt be lumped in with the rest of the elite shooters either, but you lumped him in. KD has had multiple seasons where only 10% or less of his shots came from the 3-10ft range, his career is only 12% of his shots come from that range. Does that take him out of the running as well?

How can one of the measuring barometers (the 3pt line) of the mid-range shot be considered a mid-range shot?? Why does the term "long 2" even exist if a 20 footer or a foot on the 3pt line line is consider mid-range??

Here's how 82games.com breaks down the distances when they were figuring out what wins in terms of shot selection distances

Here is how we split up the shots:
Non-Measured - a certain percentage (around 8%) of shots did not get measured.

Close Shots - the smorgasboard of close-in action, including dunks, layups, tips, etc.
6 to 11 feet - what we are referring to as Short Two's
12 to 17 feet - perhaps the true mid-range shot distance
18 to the three point line - aka Long Two's
3 Point Shots - the shots from behind the line

http://www.82games.com/comm51.htm

As far as Dirk and KD go, they shoot more 2pa than they do 3pa. They're money from just about anywhere on the floor, (including crazy turnaround fadeaways etc) to where it's the opposite with Steph. He shoots more 3pa than 2pa. He does so because he's money outside the arc. But from 3-16ft, he just hasn't shot enough from there in his career to be comfortable taking those shots. You would think he'd take more mid-range when they have blowout games to show his arsenal and that he's not just a 3pt shooter. Like with MJ. I consider him the greatest shooter inside the arc cause he proved (with high efficiancy) he could hit from anywhere inside the arc. Yet when it came to 3pa ,he barely took any cause he knew (for the most part) it was outside his range.

Brother, take a break pls. You'll be clear minded to post tomorrow.

[dhsilv2]

Yes, I get that. But there is overlap into games. And what makes that more reliable in determining how effecient a scorer is than the basic stat of percentage of shots made over the course of a game?

An NBA game is 4 12 minute quarters. The game ends when time is up, not after a certain number of posessions. Over those 48 minutes, various factors can influence the number of posession numbers per game, as well touches.

Now, let me explain the analytical error I see here, as I see it. Advanced numbers that are calculated, that can be influenced by context are what I like to refer as layered statistics. More complicated, so they need a more complicated analysis. Advanced numbers are there simulate a players skill within a particular context to an accurate number. Unfortunately, concluding someone is individually a more effecient scorer because they have a higher TS% is not how to reach a conclusion with statistics like these. It's more of an intellectualization than a conclusion.

As omeone who has worked in research and statistics, I understand that when measuring the reliability of a statistic that is influenced by other measurable variables and contexts in order to ultimately make a conclusion, you need to measure the influence of these statistical variables BEFORE concluding the realiability of a the initial statistic that validates a claim (TS% is more reliable than FG%). Without doing so, the statistic may not be reliable to support your conclusion, which is why I can't quite look at certain advance statistics as conclusive proof. I've come to notice this methodology is ignored in advanced statistics in sports, and when fans use it. Even though I assume it should correlate..I may be wrong. Maybe there is a reason, and something within these numbers that would make a proper analysis reduntant, in that, they already take account for it.

If I am, I'd love for someone to explain why it wouldnt be necessary. Cause I always beat this dead horse, and if it's redundant, I'd like to know, so I can just role with it lol but as of now, I've put time and energy into working around these things in psychology, so I have a hard time just accepting that these numbers are "the answers", its just not how I have been taught to approach statistics, and genuinly feel fans use them incorrectly. Case in point, this entire little rant of mine here XD

So in light of this..I'm genuinly asking, not being smug, genuinly asking and trying to understand what makes TS% and TS% per certain # of posessions more reliable than a player's percentage of shots made in a game when it comes to effeciency. There is no complexicity, because its shots made/shots attempted. Simple..well, unless a player plays off ball. Like Curry does. Which is a skill, which would obvioisly even impact fg%.

Ah, what the hell. I'll accept any answer. I realize I'm personalizing this. Curry is still the most exciting player I've seen the last 15 years, and at his best, is a GOAT level offensive player and imo, is the best player in the game and a top 10 player all time. I think whats truly important is that we get to witness someone who is part of Nba history.

Also, lol at my change of mindset over the course of this message.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

1. Blue like. TS% does two key difference. It looks at points generated while FG% does not. The second is that it attempts to understand the impact of free throws. As the objective is to see how efficiently a player generates points, only one of these metrics actually directly addresses that. FG% might for example tell us better how many missed shots and thus offensive/defensive rebounds were generated while TS% wouldn't have a clue. eFG% is better at letting us know how many points are generated purely off field goal attempts, but it doesn't give us points created as a whole because it misses free throws. Now we have even more detailed offensive efficiency metrics (offensive rating) but then you're looking at things outside of scoring. If the goal is to see effiency in scoring by a player, it is the one metric designed for that purpose.

2. Greenish. I mean we have large enough sample sizes with this data we could Z test each given season and compare using TS% vs league TS%. We'd get a confidence interval if you want to get mathy on it. The gaps here are pretty large and TS% is not all that super layered. It does make an interesting assumption on how to address free throws, but it seems to be doing the job reasonably well.

3. The question of reliability of FG% vs TS%. Again FG% is by its nature not a scoring efficiency measure. It does not take scoring into account at all. If I'm to use the metrics how do I figure out how many points a field goal made should generate? With TS% that number is already determined. That said it does appear that TS% underrates points per field goal attempt in the current league (Just looking at 2017, so there's reason to be skeptical of the metric as it has a guess factor for free throws). Still again FG% doesn't tell me points so again it can't even be used. I needs another layer...

You're effectively asking us to use a fork for our soup. You can get the noodles and the meat, but you'll have to pick up the bowl at the end and drink the broth. That's what FG% does. It gives us the basics but it leaves a LOT in the bowl.

[HeartBreakKid]

Can someone explain? Curry is shooting 52% from the field. Jordan has eclipsed this while scoring over 30ppg. What are you referring to? TS%? that factors in free throws too right? Cause from the floor, no, Curry is not the most effecient 30 ppg scorer ever.

I mean, if another player scores over 30ppg, shooting better from the field than Curry, doesnt that mean said player is more effecient?

Curry is still a top 3 offensive peak player ever. But lets not act like we havent seen 30ppg on 50%+ effeciency..

Yeah, he means TS%...the one that makes sense to use when comparing efficiency.

What we've never seen is 30ppg on ~70% TS%, which Curry is doing. Jordan's most efficient season was 32.5ppg on 61.4 TS%.

Comparing Steph and MJ's most efficient seasons (including possessions that ended in free throws):

Steph attempted to score on ~22 possessions and scored 30.2 points
Jordan attempted to score on ~27 possesions and scored 32.5 points

Which one is more efficient?

Yes, I get that. But there is overlap into games. And what makes that more reliable in determining how effecient a scorer is than the basic stat of percentage of shots made over the course of a game?

An NBA game is 4 12 minute quarters. The game ends when time is up, not after a certain number of posessions. Over those 48 minutes, various factors can influence the number of posession numbers per game, as well touches.

Now, let me explain the analytical error I see here, as I see it. Advanced numbers that are calculated, that can be influenced by context are what I like to refer as layered statistics. More complicated, so they need a more complicated analysis. Advanced numbers are there simulate a players skill within a particular context to an accurate number. Unfortunately, concluding someone is individually a more effecient scorer because they have a higher TS% is not how to reach a conclusion with statistics like these. It's more of an intellectualization than a conclusion.

As omeone who has worked in research and statistics, I understand that when measuring the reliability of a statistic that is influenced by other measurable variables and contexts in order to ultimately make a conclusion, you need to measure the influence of these statistical variables BEFORE concluding the realiability of a the initial statistic that validates a claim (TS% is more reliable than FG%). Without doing so, the statistic may not be reliable to support your conclusion, which is why I can't quite look at certain advance statistics as conclusive proof. I've come to notice this methodology is ignored in advanced statistics in sports, and when fans use it. Even though I assume it should correlate..I may be wrong. Maybe there is a reason, and something within these numbers that would make a proper analysis reduntant, in that, they already take account for it.

If I am, I'd love for someone to explain why it wouldnt be necessary. Cause I always beat this dead horse, and if it's redundant, I'd like to know, so I can just role with it lol but as of now, I've put time and energy into working around these things in psychology, so I have a hard time just accepting that these numbers are "the answers", its just not how I have been taught to approach statistics, and genuinly feel fans use them incorrectly. Case in point, this entire little rant of mine here XD

So in light of this..I'm genuinly asking, not being smug, genuinly asking and trying to understand what makes TS% and TS% per certain # of posessions more reliable than a player's percentage of shots made in a game when it comes to effeciency. There is no complexicity, because its shots made/shots attempted. Simple..well, unless a player plays off ball. Like Curry does. Which is a skill, which would obvioisly even impact fg%.

Ah, what the hell. I'll accept any answer. I realize I'm personalizing this. Curry is still the most exciting player I've seen the last 15 years, and at his best, is a GOAT level offensive player and imo, is the best player in the game and a top 10 player all time. I think whats truly important is that we get to witness someone who is part of Nba history.

Also, lol at my change of mindset over the course of this message.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

It's pretty obvious

FG% is the percentage of shots you make from the field. That doesn't even tell you how many points a person scored nor does it take into account free throws.

TS calculates for free throw shooting, 3 point shooting and 2 point field goals.

How can FG% ever tell you how efficient a player is - it doesn't make sense. Two people can have the same volume of shots and FG% while still having a gap of 20+ points. The stat is useless when it comes to measuring efficiency.

[Ontario]

He's incredible, the greatest shooter eve rand the cornerstone of the greatest offence ever.

If he were a mediocre shooter however the rest of his game would not justify him getting minutes in the NBA. If you had him switch places with his dad in the 90's he would only marginally be a better version of his dad.

The freedom of movement rules have been a disaster and the league needs to at least take away the corner three, it's just a jump shooting contest at this point.

His ability to handle the ball, set screens, contest for rebounds, play help defense, and finish inside wouldn't even keep him in the league if he played in the 60s. Am I doing it right?

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

[GrandTheftRondo]

He's incredible, the greatest shooter eve rand the cornerstone of the greatest offence ever.

If he were a mediocre shooter however the rest of his game would not justify him getting minutes in the NBA. If you had him switch places with his dad in the 90's he would only marginally be a better version of his dad.

The freedom of movement rules have been a disaster and the league needs to at least take away the corner three, it's just a jump shooting contest at this point.

His ability to handle the ball, set screens, contest for rebounds, play help defense, and finish inside wouldn't even keep him in the league if he played in the 60s. Am I doing it right?

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

You are full of it.

And the argument that an NBA superstar wouldn't be good if you took away his best attribute has to be the worst argument of all time and I have no idea why you and others continue to say it.

How would LeBron look if he was Isaiah Thomas' height? How would Giannis go without his freakish body type? Would Anthony Davis even be in the league if he never grew?

They are special because of these amazing attributes they have so stop trying to take them away from them.

[Ontario]

He's incredible, the greatest shooter ever and the cornerstone of the greatest offence ever.

If he were a mediocre shooter however the rest of his game would not justify him getting minutes in the NBA. If you had him switch places with his dad in the 90's he would only marginally be a better version of his dad.

The freedom of movement rules have been a disaster and the league needs to at least take away the corner three, it's just a jump shooting contest at this point.

“Curry’s only shooting like this because of the rule changes”
League average 3 point shooting has dropped 0.09% from last year

Usually to put something in quotations there other person has to have actually said that, if you look at what I wrote the "freedom of movement rules being a disaster" is something I meant to be applied to the entire league not just to Steph.

3pt Attempts per game league wide:

2018/19: 31.3
2017/18: 29
2016/17: 27
2015/16: 24.1
2014/15: 22.4
2013/14: 21.5
2012/13: 20
2011/12: 18.4
2010/11: 18
2009/10: 18.1
2008/09: 18.4

Yeah the Golden State Warriors play a fun game to watch, but the other 20 teams trying to mimic them have made the game close to unbearable. That's what Pops was taking about when he said the beauty has gone out of the game. 10 years further down the road they might as well have ball racks standing at the line so guys can chuck up even more jumpers.

This was a problem that was self evident already last year and yet Adam Silver and the league instituted rules that push the game further away from the basket instead of trying to bring back some form of balance.

[Ontario]

His ability to handle the ball, set screens, contest for rebounds, play help defense, and finish inside wouldn't even keep him in the league if he played in the 60s. Am I doing it right?

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

[michaelm]

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

You can say whatever you like obviously, but It is all completely speculative because his shooting is indivisible from the rest of his game. The only fault I really see with his game is a few too many turnovers, even his defence has not precluded a number of line ups which include him from being highly elite defensively. He even rebounds well for a guy his size, part of his anticipation and overall smartness as a player which you obviously choose to ignore. I think part of the resentment of Curry even among players is that he is less generally athletically freakish than many of them, and just plays basketball really well. I do regard hand eye co-ordination as an aspect of athleticism though, and his is obviously extraordinary,

I agree with your earlier post though, modern sports administrators in basketball and other sports keep tweaking the rules with short term objectives (mainly what they think will help the box office I guess) seemingly with little insight into the sports they run, even in regard to what actually makes them appealing. Curry was doing fine the way the rules were, and changing them won’t give other players his talent for shooting.

[GrandTheftRondo]

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

Hahahahahahahaha wow

[nikster]

He's incredible, the greatest shooter ever and the cornerstone of the greatest offence ever.

If he were a mediocre shooter however the rest of his game would not justify him getting minutes in the NBA. If you had him switch places with his dad in the 90's he would only marginally be a better version of his dad.

The freedom of movement rules have been a disaster and the league needs to at least take away the corner three, it's just a jump shooting contest at this point.

“Curry’s only shooting like this because of the rule changes”
League average 3 point shooting has dropped 0.09% from last year

Usually to put something in quotations there other person has to have actually said that, if you look at what I wrote the "freedom of movement rules being a disaster" is something I meant to be applied to the entire league not just to Steph.

3pt Attempts per game league wide:

2018/19: 31.3
2017/18: 29
2016/17: 27
2015/16: 24.1
2014/15: 22.4
2013/14: 21.5
2012/13: 20
2011/12: 18.4
2010/11: 18
2009/10: 18.1
2008/09: 18.4

Yeah the Golden State Warriors play a fun game to watch, but the other 20 teams trying to mimic them have made the game close to unbearable. That's what Pops was taking about when he said the beauty has gone out of the game. 10 years further down the road they might as well have ball racks standing at the line so guys can chuck up even more jumpers.

This was a problem that was self evident already last year and yet Adam Silver and the league instituted rules that push the game further away from the basket instead of trying to bring back some form of balance.

My bad, saw similar arguments assumed you were making the same. I disagree with the rule changes and am not happy about the current trend towards jacking up 3’s. Still, think it’s hard to specifically attribute the rule changes to this years increase and claim they have had a disastrous effect when the increase in 3pa seems to be part of an almost decade long trend.

[Impuniti]

There are plenty of guys who cannot shoot who can do those things equally as well as Curry who are not able to find minutes in the NBA so yeah you are doing it right. None of the things you mentioned he does at a particularly stellar level.

He is without doubt the best jump shooter the league has ever seen, but I find it hard to see people talk about him being the greatest ever when it is really only one skill he is truly sensational at.

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

Posts like these is why this is the best analytics place in the world.

[Ontario]

There are not guys out there not getting minutes with the ball handling and vision that Curry possesses. They sure as hell can't get to the basket and finish like him either. Curry's handles are elite, his playmaking is above average and his finishing at the basket is elite.

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

Posts like these is why this is the best analytics place in the world.

You're spreadsheets only tell half the story there is a lot of circumstantial factors that they do not isolate for like having Steph play in a different environment outside of GS. The analytics are awesome but you have to watch the guys too.

[Ontario]

“Curry’s only shooting like this because of the rule changes”
League average 3 point shooting has dropped 0.09% from last year

Usually to put something in quotations there other person has to have actually said that, if you look at what I wrote the "freedom of movement rules being a disaster" is something I meant to be applied to the entire league not just to Steph.

3pt Attempts per game league wide:

2018/19: 31.3
2017/18: 29
2016/17: 27
2015/16: 24.1
2014/15: 22.4
2013/14: 21.5
2012/13: 20
2011/12: 18.4
2010/11: 18
2009/10: 18.1
2008/09: 18.4

Yeah the Golden State Warriors play a fun game to watch, but the other 20 teams trying to mimic them have made the game close to unbearable. That's what Pops was taking about when he said the beauty has gone out of the game. 10 years further down the road they might as well have ball racks standing at the line so guys can chuck up even more jumpers.

This was a problem that was self evident already last year and yet Adam Silver and the league instituted rules that push the game further away from the basket instead of trying to bring back some form of balance.

My bad, saw similar arguments assumed you were making the same. I disagree with the rule changes and am not happy about the current trend towards jacking up 3’s. Still, think it’s hard to specifically attribute the rule changes to this years increase and claim they have had a disastrous effect when the increase in 3pa seems to be part of an almost decade long trend.

You're right the freedom of movement rule changes are not responsible for the trend of course, they are just frustrating to me because they are the absolute opposite of what the league should have been trying to achieve. The league if anything should have been trying to prevent refs from being drawn into calling perimeter fouls where the offensive player initiates contact, and maybe taking the corner three out of the G-league game to gather some statistical information and getting a chance to witness some games played with that as an experiment.

[Impuniti]

I wouldn't say he is any of those things better then say a Jose Calderon

Posts like these is why this is the best analytics place in the world.

You're spreadsheets only tell half the story there is a lot of circumstantial factors that they do not isolate for like having Steph play in a different environment outside of GS. The analytics are awesome but you have to watch the guys too.

You've said one of the dumbest things I have ever read in the last 4-5 years. I don't need spreadsheets to reconfirm anything.

[Heej]

Lol this guy called Steph Curry equal to Jose Calderon I'm done with RealGM for the day

[Ontario]

Lol this guy called Steph Curry equal to Jose Calderon I'm done with RealGM for the day

I called Steph Curry if his shooting averages were mediocre equal to Jose Calderon. Steph Curry himself is equal only to Steph Curry.

[xdrta+]

You're right the freedom of movement rule changes are not responsible for the trend of course, they are just frustrating to me because they are the absolute opposite of what the league should have been trying to achieve. The league if anything should have been trying to prevent refs from being drawn into calling perimeter fouls where the offensive player initiates contact, and maybe taking the corner three out of the G-league game to gather some statistical information and getting a chance to witness some games played with that as an experiment.

I don't get this. You think calling holding and grabbing off the ball, which is not a "rule change" it's just being called more often, has to do with the offensive player initiating contact? That makes no sense. I don't get why people think that grabbing and holding cutters and players coming off screens makes for good basketball. You might as well watch wrestling.

[Ontario]

You're right the freedom of movement rule changes are not responsible for the trend of course, they are just frustrating to me because they are the absolute opposite of what the league should have been trying to achieve. The league if anything should have been trying to prevent refs from being drawn into calling perimeter fouls where the offensive player initiates contact, and maybe taking the corner three out of the G-league game to gather some statistical information and getting a chance to witness some games played with that as an experiment.

I don't get this. You think calling holding and grabbing off the ball, which is not a "rule change" it's just being called more often, has to do with the offensive player initiating contact? That makes no sense. I don't get why people think that grabbing and holding cutters and players coming off screens makes for good basketball. You might as well watch wrestling.

I do not think those two things have anything to do with each other specifically at all. I am saying what the league needed was something to help balance the value of perimeter with mid-range offense and what the league targeted instead was something to provide perimeter offense even greater efficiency.

Defenses needed help with the James Harden's of the world, and James Harden was the one who had something waiting for him under the tree.