tbhawksfan1 wrote:How important is growth curve when choosing prospects? I'm thinking about the idea that Trae needs three years (according to those that want to defer judgement) to develop. Doncic, for comparaison, is much more NBA ready.
Problem is pre-draft eval. Comparing Doncic euro experience to Trae's year at OKL is apples to oranges. The consesnsus was that Doncic's euro experience made him much more NBA ready than Trae. They are about the same age. The start to the season has demonstrated that Doncic is more NBA ready. How long will it take for Trae to catch up with Doncic? Let's pretend that Trae is going to out-grow Doncic in year three. By how much does Trae suprpass him and how long does it take him being better to over-come the advantage Doncic has during the first 2/3 years?
I think that my argument is that Doncic being clearly better in the first two, three years is hard to over-come. I think that taking not NBA ready prospects with low starting floors is a bigger gamble. They have farther to go to reach a high peak and they are losing value during their first years due to not-readiness.
As I always want the best player available from draft, I think trading back is a bad gamble. Doncic doesn"t have to be better than Trae plus DAL FRP for it to be a bad trade. You can't add Trae and player taken with DAL FRP and compare it to Doncic. Better talent wins in the NBA.
All this to say that I think that TS made a horrible trade. Thought it at the time, more sure now that Doncic is already carrying an NBA team because he's ready and Trae's Hawks are floundering because Trae isn't. I also don't see any reason to value Trae's potential growth more than Doncic's. just because Trae has farther to go doesn't mean that he'll go farther.
What's more risky, taking the more ready player now, expected to be very good later or taking the less ready player now expected to be very good? Trae has a lot more growth to cover to reach the very good level. Bad move Schlenk
The draft isn’t an exact science and that’s what makes it so tricky. I think most people believed that Lukas pro experience would make him the most NBA ready out of the whole draft and he’s showing it. However, I feel there was also a general consensus that Luka also did not have a lot more room for growth (ie potential) regardless of how fair/unfair that is to a 19 year old player.
I’ve said it in the many pre-draft discussions at the Squawk that in order for Luka to be at his best immediately, the team that drafts him will have to put him at PF next to a very good rim protecting big and a penetrating PG. He’s not the type of player who can defend the perimeter night in night out. He gets more mismatches at the 4. Not too long after adding Doncic, the Mavs add DeAndre Jordan. Luka Doncic is the more NBA ready player with a roster built to minimize his weaknesses and maximize his strengths. Let’s not forget his coach is borderline HOF caliber. One thing I haven’t seen people truly consider who would’ve preferred Luka (nothing wrong with that): Do y’all understand how much more he would struggle on this roster with this coach ?
~30 games in and I feel as if Trae Young has a higher ceiling than Doncic. There’s just more room for improvement both physically and skill wise. This isn’t a knock on Doncic. Luka was physically ready to play with grown men at 225-230. He also had professional experience. Luka already has nearly elite BBIQ. However, Trae has elite vision and passing ability. It wouldn’t be a reach for anybody to say Trae could be the best playmaking PG in the league in 4-5 years. He can penetrate and finish in the lane. His shot isn’t falling at all, but I think he’s rushing & pressing. He has to improve his shot selection, ball control, strength, and defense. His warts should go away with time and coaching.
I would say the trade was a gamble if all the pre-draft rumors didn’t have us sold on Trae. We got who we want. The guy we wanted is flashing Star level production 30 games into his career at the hardest position to learn and the hardest position to play. On top of that, we get an extra lottery pick. I think, in time, the Hawks will be the clear winner of this trade.
